Frozen Four: How BC, BU, Denver and Michigan can win it all
The men’s NCAA hockey tournament, which started with 16 teams looking to earn a trip to St. Paul, Minnesota, is down to the Frozen Four, with some of the sport’s blue bloods vying for the national championship.
Three of the four No. 1 seeds — Boston College, Boston University and Denver — emerged from the regionals, with Michigan, a 5-2 winner over Michigan State, the fourth top seed, rounding out the field.
The Wolverines made their third straight Frozen Four with a 5-2 win over their Big Ten rivals Sunday at Maryland Heights, Missouri.
BC, the No. 1 overall seed, fought off defending national champion Quinnipiac, 5-4, in overtime to win the Providence (Rhode Island) Regional earlier in the day.
On Saturday, Boston University, the top seed in the Sioux Falls (South Dakota) Regional, and Denver, No. 1 in the Springfield (Massachusetts) Regional, punched their tickets with wins over Minnesota and Cornell, respectively.
The final four teams have won a combined 28 national titles, with Denver and Michigan tied for the most of all time with nine each, and Hockey East rivals BC and BU winning five each. Denver won the championship in 2022, BC’s last title came in 2012, BU’s in 2009 and Michigan’s in 1998.
The national semifinals are set for April 11 and the championship game April 13 at the Xcel Energy Center. Every game of the tournament will be aired on the ESPN family of networks and streamed on ESPN+.
Below is the tournament schedule, which will be updated with results as games are played. (An interactive bracket that will be updated can be found here.) Additionally, we have a look at the four contenders, including what each teams needs to do take home the championship.
Every game of the NCAA men’s hockey tournament, including the Frozen Four and championship game, will be available on ESPN+. Subscribe to watch!
Frozen Four schedule
All times Eastern
at Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul, Minnesota
National semifinals, April 11
Denver vs. Boston University, 5 p.m. (ESPN2, ESPN+)
Boston College vs. Michigan, 8:30 p.m. (ESPN2, ESPN+)
National championship game, April 13
Semifinal winners, 6 p.m. (ESPN, ESPN+)
Teams at a glance
Boston College (33-5-1)
0:32
Caps’ prospect Ryan Leonard buries goal for Boston College
Capitals’ draft prospect Ryan Leonard breaks the 1-1 tie with a nice goal for Boston College.
How the Eagles got here: The defending national champs had the No. 1 overall seed on the ropes as Quinnipiac took a 4-3 lead over Boston College in the first minute of the third period and nearly made it hold up. But the Eagles tied it with 4:44 remaining and won in overtime when Jack Malone poked home a loose puck after a scramble in front of the Quinnipiac net.
Entering the game, BC was clearly the hottest team in the country and had won its three postseason games (Hockey East, NCAA) by a combined 20-4 score. But when faced with the considerable pushback of Quinnipiac, the Eagles were up to the task, showing how adept they are at taking advantage of their scoring chances and how hard it is to keep them down for 60 minutes.
“It was a good game for us in terms of handling that adversity that coach is talking about and being down and not getting out of the fight,” Malone said. “There’s a lot of benefits and a lot of positives that we can take away from this game moving forward.”
History lesson: BC qualified for its 26th Frozen Four, second most all time behind Michigan. The Eagles have won their past 14 games to match the program record for wins in a season (33). BC has won five national titles, the last in 2012. Ryan Leonard had a pair of two-goal games at Providence, giving him 31 on the season to break the BC freshman record (Brian Gionta, 1997-98).
Providence takeaways
How BC can win it all in St. Paul: The key for the Eagles may be for them to not start showing their age now. BC is the youngest team in the country (Denver and BU are not far behind), but the Eagles aren’t only young, they rely heavily on underclassmen. Their five top scorers, with an astounding 291 combined points, are freshmen or sophomores, and 74.2% of the team’s points come from underclassmen. Goalie Jacob Fowler also is a freshman. The group already has played in a lot of big games (seven BC players won gold for the U.S. at world juniors, plus their 1 vs. 2 matchups with BU and the Hockey East tournament at sold-out TD Garden), but the Eagles certainly were on the ropes against Quinnipiac, a veteran team with national title experience. In recent years, that’s the sort of team that has had the most success in the Frozen Four.
Quinnipiac’s blueprint: Coach Rand Pecknold has built a fantastic program at Quinnipiac — five straight NCAA berths, nine in the past 11 years, three Frozen Fours and a national championship last season. While the Bobcats came up short in defending their title — a goal that led defensemen CJ McGee and Jayden Lee to return for a fifth season — the culture lives on. “It’s a brotherhood. It’s more than that,” Lee told College Hockey News. “Since the first day I stepped onto campus I’ve just been able to grow as a person and as a hockey player.” McGee said, “We never get to put this jersey on again and play games here. That’s really just unfortunate. It stinks.” — Steve Richards
Boston University (28-9-2)
0:48
Lane Hutson notches go-ahead goal for Boston University
Lane Hutson sneaks the puck into the net to give Boston University a lead they don’t relinquish.
How the Terriers got here: On the surface, BU had the easiest time in the regionals, but that certainly doesn’t mean it was a breeze. After cruising past RIT, the Terriers fell into a 2-0 hole against Minnesota before battling back to take a 4-3 lead with less than five minutes left in the second period. BU then put the clamps on the Gophers’ attack in the third period before icing the win with a pair of empty-net goals.
“When you are up by a goal in the third period, you expect the other team to push,” BU coach Jay Pandolfo said. “But we played on our toes. We kept pushing, played on our toes. And when they did have a little push, we were there to sacrifice our bodies to block some shots.”
The Terriers showed off their star power against Minnesota with Lane Hutson scoring the go-ahead goal and Macklin Celebrini contributing three assists, including a pair of beauties to spark the comeback rally. Celebrini, the 17-year-old phenom, has 32 goals and 32 assists.
History lesson: In its 24th Frozen Four, BU is making back-to-back appearances for the first time in 27 years. The Terriers lost to Minnesota in the national semifinals in 2023. BU has won the national title five times, the last in 2009.
Sioux Falls takeaways
How BU can win it all in St. Paul: After Minnesota jumped out to a 2-0 lead, BU showed great patience in sticking to its game, getting on the board late in the first period, then scoring three times in the second. That dedication to the game plan will serve the Terriers well if they can maintain it during the Frozen Four. With 12 goals in their two regional games, they showed why they are the overall No. 2 seed and why Denver will have its hands full.
Disappointment for Minnesota: The Gophers played in two of the most dramatic games of the tournament, coming from behind against Omaha in the third period, then jumping out to the lead against BU. Jaxon Nelson scored three straight goals over the two games and almost willed the Gophers to the Frozen Four, where Minnesota would have had a nice home-ice advantage. — Andrew Raycroft
Denver (30-9-3)
0:48
Sam Harris scores power-play game-winning goal vs. Cornell
Denver’s Sam Harris gets the win with a power-play goal to head to the NCAA men’s hockey Frozen Four.
How the Pioneers got here: Denver, the highest scoring team in the country, entered the NCAA tournament averaging 4.85 goals per game. In two games combined — 7½ periods in fact — at Springfield, the Pioneers failed to reach that mark. Entering the regional, Denver hadn’t won a game all season in which it scored fewer than three goals. But back-to-back 2-1 wins over UMass (double OT) and Cornell earned the Pios a trip to the Frozen Four.
That ticket was in doubt until the very end of the regional final, as Denver goalie Mark Davis held off a furious Cornell rally, making a game-saving save on Ryan Walsh in the closing seconds. The pair of tight, physical wins exemplified the improvement of the Pioneers defense, which was an issue the first half of the season but has allowed fewer than three goals in eight of their last 11 games.
“You look at our team, we’re comfortable playing any type of game now,” Denver coach David Carle said. “We have a lot of confidence regardless of the style of play.”
History lesson: This is Denver’s 19th Frozen Four appearance and its fifth in the past eight tournaments. The Pioneers’ nine national titles are tied with Michigan for the most all-time; they last won in 2021 and also took the title in 2017. They’ve reached 30 wins for the third consecutive season, a first in program history.
Springfield takeaways
How Denver can win it all at St. Paul: The Pioneers had to be encouraged by winning in the tough, physical style that typifies the NCAA tournament, but to win you have to put the puck in the net. In Springfield, Denver flashed its speed and skill when it found some room to work with — and the Pios don’t need a lot — and to win another title, they’ll have to take advantage of their opportunities. Those chances likely will continue to be scarce in St. Paul.
Hats off to the working folks: Day 1 in Springfield was a long one — more than seven hours of hockey, with puck drop shortly after 2 p.m. for Denver-UMass and the Cornell-Maine nightcap ending around 9:30 p.m. That meant a whole lot of overtime for the staff at the Mass Mutual Center, who surely were thankful the NCAA has added an off day before the regional final. — Steve Richards
Michigan (23-14-3)
0:22
Frank Nazar III’s incredible between-the-legs pass sets up Michigan goal
Michigan extends its lead over Michigan State as Frank Nazar III sends an unbelievable pass to Gavin Brindley for a goal.
How the Wolverines got here: A trip to the Frozen Four seemed unlikely in mid-February when Michigan was 15-12-3 and had slipped to No. 17 in the USCHO poll. But since then, the Wolverines are 8-2, showing an uncanny ability to win tight games — six of those wins have come in one-goal games.
All those nail-biters bring a lot of pressure on the goaltender, but Michigan’s Jake Barczewski has seemed right at home. He was, in fact, right at home in the regionals as he grew up about 20 minutes from the arena. Barczewski, a grad transfer from Canisius, made 38 saves against Michigan State after keeping North Dakota at bay while his teammates overcame a sluggish start in their opener.
“Just like all of us, Barzs has been through his ups and downs,” Michigan coach Brandon Naurato said. “And throughout that whole time, everyone believes in him.”
History lesson: Michigan is in the Frozen Four for a record 28th time. It’s the Wolverines’ third straight appearance, something they last accomplished in 2001-03. While their nine national titles match Denver for the most in NCAA hockey history, they haven’t won it all since 1998 and have just two titles since 1964. Michigan is 1-8 in its last eight Frozen Four appearances.
Maryland Heights takeaways
How Michigan can win it all in St. Paul: The Wolverines outscored their opponents 7-2 in the third period of their two regional games, showing the closing ability that is key to winning championships. Michigan provided two upsets, on paper at least, in knocking off North Dakota 4-3 and taking down in-state rival Michigan State 5-2, and will face an even bigger challenge in Boston College, the unquestioned No. 1 overall seed. The Wolverines will look to avoid losing their fourth straight Frozen Four semifinal (vs. Quinnipiac last year, vs. Denver in 2022, vs. Notre Dame in 2018) — it’s great to get this far, but you want to win too. Dylan Duke paced Michigan at Maryland Heights with four goals and one assist.
A hot ticket: Besides the drama on the ice, ticket prices were the talk in St. Louis. With three programs with some of the biggest fan bases in the country playing in a 2,500-seat arena, tickets were scarce. This was the most competitive bracket on paper, and it lived up to the hype. All three games in the regional were up for grabs with less than 10 minutes left in the third period. — Andrew Raycroft
Regionals recap
Springfield (Massachusetts) Regional
Semifinals
Denver 2, UMass 1 (2OT)
Cornell 3, Maine 1
Final
Denver 2, Cornell 1
Denver wins Springfield Regional
Sioux Falls (South Dakota) Regional
Semifinals
Boston University 6, RIT 3
Minnesota 3, Omaha 2
Final
Boston University 6, Minnesota 3
Boston University wins Sioux Falls Regional
Providence (Rhode Island) Regional
Semifinals
Boston College 6, Michigan Tech 1
Quinnipiac 3, Wisconsin 2 (OT)
Final
Boston College 5, Quinnipiac 4 (OT)
Boston College wins Providence Regional
Maryland Heights (Missouri) Regional
Semifinals
Michigan State 5, Western Michigan 4 (OT)
Michigan 4, North Dakota 3
Final
Michigan 5, Michigan State 2
Michigan wins Maryland Heights Regional
The first AP poll of the 2025 college football season has been released. Texas begins the season at No. 1 followed by Penn State, Ohio State, Clemson and Georgia.
Texas is ranked No. 1 in the preseason coaches’ poll. The Longhorns face a major test right away. Their Aug. 30 opener at defending champion and third-ranked Ohio State is a rematch of last season’s College Football Playoff semifinal, a 28-14 Buckeyes win in the Cotton Bowl.
The SEC leads the way with 10 teams in the AP Top 25, the most ever by one conference. The Big Ten is second with six teams represented.
With the season about to start, here’s one big stat to know for each team in the AP Top 25.
Stats courtesy of ESPN Research.
All times Eastern
2024 record: 13-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 at Ohio State, noon, Fox
Stat to know: 26. The Longhorns’ 26 turnovers last season were the fifth most in the FBS, yet they still had a plus-5 turnover margin thanks to their 31 takeaways, which were second in the country.
2024 record: 13-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Nevada, 3:30 p.m., CBS
Stat to know: 3,237. Penn State led all Power 4 teams in rushing last season with 3,237 yards. Running backs Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton, who each rushed for more than 1,000 yards last season, return in 2025.
2024 record: 14-2
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Texas, noon, Fox
Stat to know: 84. QB Julian Sayin, a freshman in 2024 and former five-star recruit, has thrown for just 84 career yards. However, he is the leading passer on Ohio State’s roster.
2024 record: 10-4
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. LSU, 7:30 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 0-3. Clemson went 0-3 against the SEC in 2024 (Georgia, South Carolina, Texas). The Tigers haven’t lost four straight games to the SEC since doing so across three seasons from 1974-76.
2024 record: 11-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Marshall, 3:30 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 53-5. That’s Georgia’s record over the past four seasons, with three of the losses coming to Alabama. Michigan (48-8) and Ohio State (47-8) are the only other FBS schools with fewer than 10 losses in that span.
2024 record: 14-2
Week 1: Aug. 31 at Miami, 7:30 p.m., ABC
Stat to know: 5. The Irish have five true road games this season (Miami, Arkansas, Boston College, Pitt, Stanford). The program last won more than three true road games in 2021 (4-0), compiling an 8-4 record in true road games since then (3-0 last season).
2024 record: 13-1
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Montana State, 4 p.m., BTN
Stat to know: 39. Since 2022, when Dan Lanning took over as head coach, Oregon has led the country in points per game with 39. The Ducks will have a new starting QB in 2025 (Dante Moore). It’s the third year in a row with a different starting QB.
2024 record: 9-4
Week 1: Aug. 30 at Florida State, 3:30 p.m., ABC
Stat to know: 4. Last season, Alabama had four losses for the first time since 2007, which also was the last time the Tide finished outside of the AP top 10. They ended 2024 ranked 17th.
2024 record: 9-4
Week 1: Aug. 30 at Clemson, 7:30 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 125. Linebacker Whit Weeks, a rising junior, was second in the SEC last season with 125 tackles, including 10 tackles for loss and 3.5 sacks.
2024 record: 10-3
Week 1: Aug. 31 vs. Notre Dame, 7:30 p.m., ABC
Stat to know: 150. Of Miami’s top seven receivers from 2024, only tight end Elija Lofton is back in 2025. He had 150 yards on nine catches last season.
2024 record: 11-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Northern Arizona, 10 p.m., ESPN+
Stat to know: 39. The Sun Devils have to replace All-Big 12 first-team running back Cam Skattebo, who accounted for 39% of the team’s scrimmage yards last season (T-4th in the FBS).
2024 record: 10-3
Week 1: Aug. 29 vs. Western Illinois, 7:30 p.m., Peacock
Stat to know: 10. Illinois has never won 10 games in consecutive seasons.
2024 record: 9-4
Week 1: Aug. 31 vs. Virginia Tech (in Atlanta), 3 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 261. In his first year as starting quarterback, LaNorris Sellers averaged 261 passing yards in his final six games — 100 more than he had averaged over his first six games.
2024 record: 8-5
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. New Mexico, 7:30 p.m., Peacock
Stat to know: 131. Michigan ranked 131st in passing in 2024, behind only the service academies. The Wolverines did bring in veteran Fresno State QB Mikey Keene and signed five-star QB Bryce Underwood, the No. 1 overall recruit in the class of 2025.
2024 record: 8-5
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Long Island, 7 p.m., ESPN+
Stat to know: 20. Florida recorded 20 sacks over its last four games of the season, fifth most among FBS teams after Week 11 and the most among non-CFP teams.
2024 record: 11-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. East Texas A&M, 9 p.m., ACC Network
Stat to know: 40.8. Last season the Mustangs scored 40.8 points per game (fifth most in the FBS) after Kevin Jennings took over as starting QB against TCU in Week 4.
2024 record: 9-4
Week 1: Aug. 23 vs. Iowa State (in Dublin), noon, ESPN
Stat to know: 605. Kansas State quarterback Avery Johnson led all Big 12 quarterbacks in rushing in 2024 with 605 yards.
2024 record: 6-7
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Illinois State, 6 p.m., ESPN+
Stat to know: 26. The Sooners have played in a bowl game in 26 consecutive seasons. Only Georgia (28) has a longer active streak.
2024 record: 8-5
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. UTSA, 7 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 16.2%. Defensive end Cashius Howell had a 16.2% pressure rate last season, the sixth best among FBS players and best of any returning SEC player.
2024 record: 11-2
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Old Dominion, 2:30 p.m., FS1
Stat to know: 8. Should Indiana win eight or more games, it would mark the first time since 1987 and 1988 that the Hoosiers won at least eight games in consecutive seasons.
2024 record: 10-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Georgia State, 7:45 p.m., SEC Network
Stat to know: 45. Ole Miss returns 45% of its defensive production. In 2024, the Rebels ranked first in the SEC in points allowed per game (14.4) and rush yards allowed per game (81).
2024 record: 11-3
Week 1: Aug. 23 vs. Kansas State (in Dublin), noon, ESPN
Stat to know: 5.35. Iowa State yielded 5.35 yards per rush in 2024, which ranked 126th in the FBS. ISU allowed 81 carries of 10 or more yards last season, ranking 125th in the FBS.
2024 record: 8-5
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Arkansas-Pine Bluff, 7:30 p.m., ESPN+
Stat to know: 2018. The Red Raiders have not appeared in an AP poll since 2018. No power conference program has played more games as an unranked team over the past six seasons than Texas Tech (74). On the other hand, 89 FBS programs have played at least one game as an AP-ranked team since 2019.
2024 record: 10-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Syracuse (in Atlanta), noon, ABC
Stat to know: 39. Tennessee returns 39% of its offensive production from last season, which is ranked 110th in the FBS for returning offensive production. Nico Iamaleava was the headliner among the departures, but the Vols brought in App State QB Joey Aguilar, who has thrown 56 touchdown passes in the past two seasons.
2024 record: 12-2
Week 1: Aug. 28 at USF, 5:30 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 2,601. Boise State is looking to replace Ashton Jeanty’s 2,601 rushing yards. The Broncos brought in Fresno State transfer Malik Sherrod, who rushed for 966 yards and 10 total touchdowns in 2023. Sherrod appeared in only five games in 2024 before suffering an ankle injury.
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Pamela Maldonado
Before the first whistle of the 2025 college football season blows and play begins, the betting market is already moving. Week 1 lines are live at ESPN BET with season win totals and futures shaping up. Each team in the preseason AP top 25 poll has a story, whether it’s a rebuild, a reload or a revenge tour.
I’ve combed through the markets and picked one betting angle for every Top 25 ranked team, including win totals, long shots and even some bets for Week 1. There is plenty of head-to-head matchups, stability edges and fade-worthy hype. Here are 25 bets to consider before the college football chaos begins.
All odds are accurate as of time stamp. All times Eastern. For the latest odds go to ESPN BET.
The bet: Texas to miss the playoff (+220)
Texas is currently the favorite to win the national championship at ESPN BET, but this feels more like hype than substance. If the Longhorns drop two road games at Ohio State and Georgia, they have zero margin for error the rest of the way. And winning games against teams like Florida, Kentucky and Texas A&M isn’t guaranteed with such a young roster. All three games are tricky spots for Texas, especially late in the year. Even with a strong recruiting class, asking Arch Manning to go nearly perfect through that stretch is a lot. That’s why Texas going 10-2 feels like the smart bet. Taking the Longhorns to miss the playoff has real value.
The bet: Penn State over 10.5 wins (+120)
Penn State is built for another deep playoff run this year. Drew Allar enters his third season as the Nittany Lions’ starter with continuity around him. Top backs Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton return, and while Tyler Warren is gone, the receiving room stays intact with Harrison Wallace III and Omari Evans. The key is Allar taking the next step, but the pieces are there. With OC Andy Kotelnicki in his second year and a veteran core, this team is ready. Trusting James Franklin is a big ask but with an experienced roster, the path is clear for Penn State to take a leap.
The bet: Ohio State (-2.5) vs. Texas
Week 1 brings a heavyweight showdown in Columbus, a game of experience versus transition. Texas rolls in with tons of hype around QB Arch Manning but question marks remain, as the Longhorns attempt to break in a new quarterback and new skill players after losing their top two wideouts and key depth in the backfield.
The defending champion Buckeyes aren’t starting from scratch. Ohio State returns core defensive pieces and still has firepower at receiver with Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate. The Buckeyes’ defense could be the difference against a Texas offense likely to lean heavily on the ground game early. Also, Ohio State rarely loses at Ohio Stadium, where it has gone 27-3 since 2021.
The bet: Tigers to make the playoff (-145)
I’m all in on the Tigers this year. Don’t be surprised if Cade Klubnik is the best quarterback in the country by December. He has got the experience, the green light and a trio of dangerous receivers in Antonio Williams, Bryant Wesco Jr. and TJ Moore. Continuity and talent are finally aligned for the Tigers on offense as well as a friendly schedule with LSU as the only true litmus test early. While I’m not quite ready to say Clemson is my pick to win the national championship, the Tigers are a team to watch in 2025. Look for a lot of Clemson’s games to go over as this offense will be electric.
The bet: Georgia over 9.5 wins (-180)
The Bulldogs have questions, a new quarterback, a revamped offensive line and unproven edge rushers, but they’re still stacked with recruiting talent and depth at nearly every position. They get Alabama, Texas, Ole Miss and Kentucky all at home, where they’re an absurd 47-1 since 2017. QB Gunner Stockton has the tools, the defense is still loaded and the receiving room finally has explosiveness. Even if this team isn’t vintage Georgia, 10 wins feels more like the Bulldogs’ floor than their ceiling.
The bet: Head-to-head Most Regular Season Wins: Notre Dame (-130) vs. Texas
Notre Dame’s defense is the reason they could go undefeated, and it starts up front. Despite losing three starters on the defensive line, the Irish return 11 linemen who combined for nearly 2,400 snaps last season, which means this group is deep, experienced and versatile. The Irish added key transfers and have multiple breakout candidates like freshman quarterback CJ Carr. The defense is loaded with size, length and pass-rushing upside and can rotate in waves. Against a Texas team still retooling with a new quarterback and key losses at the skill positions, Notre Dame has a stable path to more wins this season.
The bet: Oregon to miss the playoff (+210)
I’m not as high on Dante Moore as the market. He has arm talent but struggled with turnovers, pressure and consistency when he last started as a freshman at UCLA in 2023. He also lacks the mobility to escape the pocket when things break down. Losing WR Tez Johnson to the NFL strips away a key weapon, especially in the short and intermediate game. That impact showed late in the season where Oregon nearly lost 16-13 to Wisconsin without him. If Moore doesn’t progress quickly and Johnson’s absence lingers, this team will take a step back.
The bet: Alabama to miss the playoff (+125)
This is a wager against the current roster’s limitations, road vulnerability and a path with no margin for defensive error. The Crimson Tide’s defense isn’t what it used to be. In 2024 they were ranked 52nd in run defense while giving up scores on 85% of red zone trips on the road. Throw in road games at Georgia, Missouri, South Carolina and Auburn. The offense might keep Alabama alive, but with key losses on defense, 10-2 feels more like the ceiling. In a crowded 12-team Playoff, that might not be enough. The name still carries weight, but the cracks are there.
The bet: LSU under 8.5 wins (+135)
The Tigers at plus money have value when you consider their schedule and roster concerns. LSU opens the season at Clemson, a more complete team, then travels to Ole Miss, Alabama and Oklahoma, all three teams with strong home-field edges. Even home games against Florida and South Carolina are not guaranteed wins. Especially with an offensive line in transition after losing both starting tackles to the NFL and a run game that is relying on a freshman to carry the load after the team averaged just 116 yards per game this past season, 104th in the country. Most of the wide receiver room is new, so early chemistry with QB Garrett Nussmeier could take time. There’s talent, but between the turnover, health questions and a brutal road slate, nine wins is a tall ask.
The bet: Notre Dame (-2.5) at Miami
This isn’t a bet on Miami, but it’s a wager that offers the most value. Notre Dame returns a loaded defense with depth, experience and a pass rush that can expose Miami’s rebuilt receiving corps. The Hurricanes are still replacing their top five receivers, starting a new quarterback in Carson Beck and rolling out a brand-new defensive coaching staff. That’s a lot of moving parts against a team with continuity and Playoff expectations. If Beck’s turnover issues from this past season show up early, Notre Dame has the defense to make the Hurricanes pay. The bet on Miami is Beck to throw an interception in this game.
The bet: Arizona State under 8.5 wins (-135)
I don’t love this, but it makes more sense when you factor in the loss of Cam Skattebo. He accounted for over 2,300 yards (rushing and receiving) and 21 of the team’s 30 rushing touchdowns. Without him, the pressure shifts entirely to second-year quarterback Sam Leavitt, who’s talented but still young, and now without his safety valve. The Sun Devils’ schedule looks manageable on paper, but close games become harder to close without Skattebo’s power and consistency. ASU still has upside, but losing its most reliable weapon lowers the floor.
The bet: Illinois under 7.5 wins (+130)
Call it contrarian, but I’m not as high on the Illini as others. Yes, they beat Nebraska, Michigan and South Carolina this past season, but those wins came with major context. Michigan was still figuring itself out early in the season, and the Citrus Bowl win came in a watered-down matchup filled with opt-outs. Losing Josh McCray to Georgia, the Illini’s most physical running back and leader in rushing scores, matters. The backfield is still solid, but not as proven, and with a tougher schedule ahead, under eight wins could be valuable.
The bet: South Carolina over 7.5 wins (-105)
This is an underrated play given the ceiling the Gamecocks have built around quarterback LaNorris Sellers and what he brings to this team. He has Jayden Daniels potential as a dual-threat QB with the ability to carry a team when the defense is in transition. Yes, South Carolina’s defense lost a lot of experienced players, but the system remains aggressive and there are still difference-makers in edge Dylan Stewart and DB Jalon Kilgore. The Gamecocks finished 2024 with six straight regular season wins and now have momentum, confidence and a clear offensive identity. If the young skill guys step up even modestly, Sellers can guide South Carolina to a winning season.
The bet: Michigan to win the Big Ten (+850)
The Wolverines closed this past season with three straight wins, including impressive performances at Ohio State and against Alabama. They should be able to use that momentum this season with a deep group of pass rushers and a secondary that could be among the best in the country. Michigan’s schedule sets up well for a potential undefeated Big Ten run, with The Game back in Ann Arbor where Michigan has won four straight in the rivalry. Freshman QB Bryce Underwood, a 5-star recruit, provides upside and depth far better than last year’s carousel. If the quarterback position hits, along with the defense, this ticket has legs.
The bet: Florida under 7.5 wins (-135)
The juice on this bet isn’t ideal, but it’s warranted. Florida’s schedule is brutal with road trips to LSU and Texas A&M, plus games against Texas, Georgia and Tennessee — all teams with solid defenses. Quarterback DJ Lagway has potential, but he has dealt with shoulder issues and has no proven depth behind him. The Gators’ defense finished strong this past year but are thin in the interior and their secondary has durability concerns, especially with DB Devin Moore. If Lagway misses any time or the trenches wear down, this could easily be a 6-6 season for Florida with Billy Napier heading out the door.
The bet: SMU over 8.5 wins (-120)
With Kevin Jennings back at quarterback, SMU’s passing game is ready to roll. Jennings brings big-play ability and has experience around him in proven receivers Jordan Hudson, Romello Brinson and tight end RJ Maryland. The Mustangs’ passing offense should be their strength again, especially early while the backfield settles in. If Jennings can cut down on his turnovers, this team’s floor is nine wins.
The bet: Kansas State to win the Big 12 (+550)
Quarterback Avery Johnson has taken the next step as a leader and passer, and the offense is balanced with a deep backfield and a promising receiver group. The Wildcats’ defensive front is among the best in the conference, and linebacker Austin Romaine gives them a true anchor. Kansas State’s early schedule is quirky, but winnable, starting with Iowa State in Dublin, a game the Wildcats should handle. If the secondary holds up, this veteran team has all the tools to make a serious run at the conference title.
The bet: Oklahoma under 6.5 wins (+135)
Cal transfer running back Jaydn Ott brings name recognition, but he wasn’t fully healthy this past season and didn’t log a single 100-yard rushing game. Even if Ott and Washington State transfer quarterback John Mateer click in this offense, the Sooners’ offensive line is still a major liability after giving up 50 sacks in 2024. I like Mateer’s potential. He is a solid quarterback, but Oklahoma’s schedule is brutal with Michigan early followed by what could be a challenging game against Texas and games against South Carolina, Ole Miss, Tennessee and Alabama in a row. For a team that went 2-6 in the SEC this past season and still lacks proven playmakers, seven wins feels like a reach.
The bet: Texas A&M over 7.5 wins (-170)
I’m high on the Aggies but fully aware I’m probably walking into heartbreak again. The Aggies offense has serious upside with dual-threat quarterback Marcel Reed, a healthy RB Le’Veon Moss and one of the best offensive lines in the country. Mike Elko’s defense collapsed late this past year, including a blown 17-point lead to USC, but they also shut out Texas in the second half and made key portal additions. Elko took over playcalling and publicly called out the issues: coverage, tackling and focus. If Texas A&M’s defense makes even a moderate jump, eight wins should be this team’s floor.
The bet: Indiana over 8.5 wins (+115)
There are only two clear roadblocks for Indiana this season, Iowa and Penn State. Everything else is winnable, especially with quarterback Fernando Mendoza stepping into an offensive system that just set school records for scoring and upgraded the offensive line and backfield. The defense returns All-American talent at every level and finished seventh in points allowed last year. With continuity, explosive skill talent and a proven head coach in Curt Cignetti, this is a program built to sustain success. At plus money, the Hoosiers upside is worth the risk.
The bet: Ole Miss to miss the playoff (-190)
The Rebels lost nearly their entire defensive identity with most of the secondary gone. Offensively, quarterback Austin Simmons is talented but unproven, and he’s playing behind an offensive line replacing four starters. That’s not a great setup with road trips to Georgia and Oklahoma on the schedule, both could expose the Rebels’ inexperience behind center and vulnerable defense. Add in home games against LSU and South Carolina, two teams with explosive skill players and physical fronts. Even if the Ole Miss offense holds up, the defense has too many question marks, and four potential losses means the playoff is likely out of reach.
The bet: Iowa State-Kansas State over 49.5
The Big 12 can be a volatile conference so let’s go straight to a Week 0 play. Iowa State’s run defense ranked 105th nationally this past year and now faces a Kansas State offense that thrives on the ground with dual-threat quarterback Avery Johnson. Add in the Cyclones’ pass rush concerns, just 17 sacks in 14 games, and a reworked defensive line still searching for chemistry and it’s easy to see where explosive plays could come from. Both teams return experienced quarterbacks, and with defenses typically starting slow early in the season, especially internationally, this neutral-site opener has all the ingredients for a high scoring affair.
The bet: Texas Tech over 8.5 wins (-140)
Quarterback continuity with Behren Morton means steady production at the most important position. Offensive line upgrades give Morton time to attack vertically and keep the run game strong, utilizing added players to the receiving group and backfield. Adding LBs David Bailey and Romello Height and Lee Hunter up front, turn the the Red Raiders’ defensive front into a strength, while added secondary depth lets defensive coordinator Shiel Wood be aggressive and fix last year’s leaky pass defense. Texas Tech’s schedule is front-loaded, with a strong chance to start 4-0. From there, splitting the tougher road games gets them to 9-3, making over 8.5 wins worth backing despite the -140 price.
The bet: Tennessee over 8.5 wins (+105)
The Volunteers’ defense is legit, one of the most disruptive in the SEC and that gives them a reliable floor in a season full of toss-up games. With this sneaky athleticism, Joey Aguilar might be unproven at this level, but he could bring more mobility than last year’s starter and enough upside to keep the offense functional. While not a true dual-threat, he moves well in the pocket, can extend plays, and is comfortable throwing on the run. Aguilar has all the tools, but it’s still projection, not production. With a veteran defensive line, solid corners, and DB Boo Carter emerging as a weapon in all three phases, this is a team that can grind out wins even when their offense isn’t perfect. If Aguilar settles in early, a 9-3 record is within reach.
The bet: Boise State to win the Mountain West (-125)
Taking Boise State over 9.5 wins at -190 is a heavy tax with little reward. The Broncos have a 21-2 record in Mountain West play since 2022. Their toughest league opponents this season, UNLV, Fresno State and Colorado State, are all home games. If the Broncos go 7-1 or 8-0 in conference play, they will likely host the conference title game on their home blue turf. Even if they lose to Notre Dame and Air Force, they could still easily win the Mountain West. Consider skipping the juiced win total and take a bet on the clearer path for the Broncos against a soft conference schedule.
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