Introducing MLB’s 162 club: The players who play every day — and why it matters
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Jeff Passan, ESPN
FREDDIE FREEMAN PLAYED in 161 games last year. He does not like this fact. Were it up to the Los Angeles Dodgers first baseman and likely future Hall of Famer, he would participate in every game of every season, all 162, a number held sacred throughout the game. Freeman has partly agreed to a compromise since joining the Dodgers — the day after they clinch a division championship, he’ll sit, for one game and nothing more. When that day arrived last season, he still fought it.
“Until I’m told to sit down, I will fight you until you literally don’t put me in the lineup card,” Freeman said. “But that’s just how I view life in general. That’s my job, I’m gonna do it.”
The task of 161 is every bit as trying as 162, but the allure is simply not the same. Even more in sports’ load management era, the regard for playing all 162 has become almost mythic. Figuring out how to actually achieve it, though, remains elusive for nearly every baseball player. Since 1961 (when Major League Baseball expanded the schedule from 154 games), fewer than five players a year on average have played at least 162 games in a season. Of the 655 position players last year, just four — Arizona’s Eugenio Suarez, Atlanta’s Matt Olson, New York’s Juan Soto and Texas’ Marcus Semien — hit the mark.
It’s not just the rarity that means something to this group. It’s what goes into 162, the confluence of events that allow it to manifest. Baseball is the longest season in professional sports, a six-month endurance test in which the vagaries of life can waylay the goal of 162.
So what does it take to reach it? ESPN surveyed players present and past to understand how they weathered the roadblocks that prevent hundreds annually from joining the elite club, and a few elements stood out as universal. Already, just two weeks into this season, the potential for 162 has been winnowed from 414 position players thus far with at least one plate appearance to 124 who have partaken in each of their team’s full slate of games.
Freeman is one of them.
“People don’t go be a schoolteacher to just sit there and not teach,” he said. “My job is to play baseball. … Believe me, at least 100, 150 times my dad says take a day off, take a day off. And I go, ‘Dad, you know that’s not gonna happen.'”
ANOTHER DAD ONCE gave his son advice on playing 162, and the words — “When you’re an everyday player,” the father said, “you have a responsibility to be in there and meet the challenges of the day” — still to this day stick with Cal Ripken Jr.
Nobody embodies 162 quite like Ripken, whose streak of playing in 2,632 consecutive games is among baseball’s most unbreakable records. He’s the king of the 162-game season, too, with 10 of them (and four more at 161, owed to games canceled and not rescheduled).
“The whole concept of 162 is so psychological,” Ripken said. “You don’t know you can play 162 until you do it.”
This is the first tenet of playing 162: One must exhibit extreme mental strength. A player can be young (Delmon Young, age 21, 2007) or old (Pete Rose, 41, 1982). He can wear any uniform (all 30 teams have at least one 162-game triumph). For every difference, the commonalities include a willingness to play through the slog of a long season, the bumps and bruises that accompany it and the downturns impossible for even the best players to avoid.
Even for those staunch in wanting to play 162, the temptations to sit can be pervasive. Take a day. Let the body heal. You’ve earned it. To resist those urges 162 times a season, you need to have another goal.
“If I don’t play today, I can’t have that at-bat where something clicks and I get out of my slump,” said Philadelphia Phillies super-utility player Whit Merrifield, who sandwiched a pair of 162-game efforts around a full 60-game season in 2020. “I can’t do that if I’m on the bench. That’s what ending up trumping those thoughts.”
And some organizations have established a culture in which 162 feels like an expectation. Ripken knew Brooks Robinson did it four times and saw Eddie Murray pull it off once. In his wake, Rafael Palmeiro (twice), B.J. Surhoff (twice) and Miguel Tejada (six straight times, three of them with Baltimore) continued the tradition.
Sure enough, the Orioles lead MLB teams with 27 instances (37% of them Ripken’s). In more recent years, the Atlanta Braves have picked up the mantle. Following Freeman’s first 162-game season in 2014, he did it again in 2018. Olson played 162 in 2022 and 2023, joined in 2022 by Dansby Swanson.
“It’s a mental commitment,” said Swanson, now with the Chicago Cubs. “No matter how you feel, it’s a commitment to play and perform each and every day. You wake up and it doesn’t matter if you’re sick, doesn’t matter if you’re hurting, doesn’t matter what’s going on in your life. It’s your job.”
BASEBALL IS NOT the world’s most strenuous sport by any means, but consider a major leaguer’s life. Every day, for more than 2½ hours, a ballplayer standing on metal spikes repeatedly goes from standstill to full sprint. Among swings in batting practice, batting cage work and in-game hacks, he torques his body with unbridled explosiveness upward of 100 times a day. Compound that with the hundreds of throws and the daily weight training deemed a necessity to maintain strength, and suddenly one day off sounds like heaven.
“I never thought I would be able to play 162,” Soto said. “One day, you don’t feel right. Or you’re in a little slump. Or your manager wants you to take a day off. That’s all it takes.”
The physical fortitude to play 162 comprises the second tenet. Not only must players be good enough — or their team bad enough — to warrant inclusion in the lineup every day, they require fast-healing bodies to ensure the opportunity to perform.
“I had a good set of genes,” Ripken said. “I could foul a ball off my foot and I wouldn’t have a lot of swelling. I was a good healer.”
Said Freeman, in a perfect summation of life as a 162er: “I think I can play baseball with a little owie.”
It’s about finding where the line is for every individual. Freeman knows his body isn’t the same as Shohei Ohtani‘s, whose isn’t the same as Mookie Betts,’ and on it goes. A stretch that might work for someone else might not be right for him. One player might need 200 swings as part of his process while he limits his work in the cage.
“If you’re doing too much, and you’re not achieving what you need to do at 7 o’clock, then no one’s gonna care what you’re doing at 3 o’clock, you know?” Freeman said. “‘Oh, look at you, you dead-lifted, you did this, you swung 700 times. Well, you’re tired and you can’t perform.'”
In the back of every player’s mind, of course, is the sport’s ultimate cautionary tale. On June 2, 1925, the Yankees’ manager, Miller Huggins, suggested his first baseman, Wally Pipp, take the day off to nurse a headache. A 21-year-old named Lou Gehrig replaced him. Gehrig played every Yankees game for the next 14 years and Pipp was unceremoniously traded to the Reds after the season.
“I know the Wally Pipp story. I had no interest in that happening to me. I’ve always wanted to play, and it took me so long to get to the big leagues,” said Merrifield, who debuted at 27 years old. “I didn’t want to give up a day as a big leaguer.”
THE THIRD TENET of playing 162: intelligence. It takes someone self-aware to formulate the sort of plan that can maintain health. Olson, who first played 162 as a 24-year-old with Oakland, only later in his career reconciled what it takes to cajole an aging body through a full season.
“You’re not going to feel good every day,” he said. “The older I’ve gotten, the more honest you have to be with yourself. Maybe you don’t need to hit BP that day. Maybe you need to get a massage. You find these little things.”
Merrifield learned that playing hard and playing smart are two entirely different ideas. For all the times he heard the importance of running hard, he recognized the limitations he needed to put in place to avoid the sorts of injuries that come when a player can’t differentiate between false hustle and real hustle.
“If I hit a fly ball during the regular season, I shouldn’t run 100 percent to second base,” Merrifield said. “I should run as hard as I need to in order to ensure I make it to second base.”
For Soto, who had never played more than 153 games before last season, knowing when to take a break during the course of a game proved essential. In more than 10% of his games last year, Soto’s then-manager, Bob Melvin, pulled him in the late innings for extra rest. It worked so well that by late August, Soto said, he felt fresh enough to strive for 162, even with 27 games in 31 days to end the season.
“My body felt great,” Soto said. “As long as I can be healthy, I want to be out there every day. At the end of the day, you never know when you’re gonna be able to do it. If I have the chance, I’m gonna do it.”
Before this season began, Soto spoke with his new manager, the New York Yankees‘ Aaron Boone, about the benefits of Melvin’s approach. Soto said he made it clear that designated hitter duties were undesirable — “If I’m playing,” he said, “I’m playing right field” — and after getting a taste of 162, he wanted to validate an axiom that applies to baseball as much as any job: The greatest ability is availability.
“Some guys are more equipped to handle that than others,” said Boone, himself a 162er in 2002. “Whether that’s body type, athleticism, whatever it may be. Some people are cut out for it.”
IN ANY GIVEN game, a batter can foul a ball off his foot. He can wear a fastball to the ribs. He can tweak a muscle running, turn an ankle on the bases or strain a forearm making a throw. Throughout the course of baseball history, players have pulled an oblique sneezing, wrecked their hands playing Guitar Hero, sliced their finger on a drone, thrown out their back carrying luggage and missed games because of frostbite due to leaving an ice pack on for too long.
The road to 162 is paved with potholes. And it’s why the fourth element, Olson said, is the most important.
“I feel like luck is the biggest factor,” he said. “There are just so many little ways that something can go wrong on a baseball field. You take one swing. You step on a base weird. There’s a lot of preparation that goes into your work, but sometimes things are out of your control.”
Ripken understands this acutely. Toward the end of his career, after the streak had ended, he underwent back surgery that limited him to 83 games in 2000. Before the 2001 season, he vowed to return to spring training feeling like someone closer to 30 than 40. Part of his offseason training included high-intensity pickup basketball games in the gym at his home. Less than two weeks before spring training, he invited a group of Baltimore Ravens players to the gym, and as he intercepted a pass, Ravens cornerback Chris McAlister crashed into him and broke one of Ripken’s ribs. For well over a decade, Ripken had played pickup hoops without incident. And then his luck ran out.
Those turns of fate happen all the time. In 2020, Semien — the closest thing to a baseball iron man today, having played every game in the four full seasons since 2019 — missed seven games when the same pesky side soreness he played through in previous seasons proved too trying to withstand. If not for that week, his consecutive games played streak would be at 800.
He’s one of only 14 players this century who have joined Olson in booking back-to-back full seasons. Just four players have done it three or more consecutive years: Tejada (six in a row), Juan Pierre (five), Prince Fielder (three) and Hideki Matsui (three).
Swanson comes close: He played in 160 of the Braves’ 161 games in 2021 before hitting all 162 the following season, one in which his foot was stepped on at the beginning, threatening his attempt in its infancy. Luck wound up on his side, as he missed no time.
“With all of it,” Swanson said, “there is a lot of good fortune that goes into it.”
DESPITE ALL THE hoopla and fanfare that came with passing Gehrig, Ripken never truly appreciated his streak until years after. For a player to match it, he would need 16-plus seasons without missing a game. In the course of baseball history, only 49 players have participated in more than 2,632 games period.
“It seems like more of an accomplishment looking back on it than it felt going through it,” Ripken said. “Some people think that it was an obsession to play all those games in a row because I wanted to break Lou Gehrig’s record. That wasn’t it. I’d rather have had more hits than Pete Rose or more homers than Hank [Aaron].
“But I’m glad I did it.”
Because, as Ripken said, there’s something special about the ability to be out there for every game — to master the mental, withstand the physical, embrace the intelligent and bask in the luck. Everything needs to align for just one season of 162.
When something happens infrequently enough that since 1961 there are more 40 home run seasons than it — 286 to 277 — its scarcity speaks for itself. At the same time, it wouldn’t be right to give the final word to a statistic. Playing 162 is about so much more than the bold number on a player’s Baseball-Reference page. It’s about being part of a special fraternity whose members deeply respect one another and bathe in the admiration of those who simply can’t fathom what it takes to play all 162.
“The thing I take the most pride in is that over the course of my career, I’ve never been on the IL and never been scratched from a game and always been available,” Merrifield said. “When I haven’t played, it hasn’t been my decision. I just hope it continues that way.”
Jorge Castillo, Alden Gonzalez and Jesse Rogers contributed to this report.
After four weeks of the season, we might have an idea about the true College Football Playoff contenders in each conference.
While a few of the top teams in the SEC and the Big Ten were off in Week 4, the Texas Tech Red Raiders, Indiana Hoosiers, Oklahoma Sooners and Miami Hurricanes got the spotlight.
A surprise team in the 2024 CFP, Indiana put up big numbers on the Illinois Fighting Illini. Fernando Mendoza threw five TD passes in the 63-10 win. The Hoosiers still have the Oregon Ducks and the Penn State Nittany Lions on the schedule, but Indiana passed a conference test in hopes of landing another playoff bid.
The Sooners are trying to jump into the SEC playoff picture in their second season in the league. Oklahoma opened conference play by rocking former Sooners quarterback Jackson Arnold and the Auburn Tigers. OU sacked Arnold 10 times in its 24-17 win.
Miami, one of only two AP top-five teams in action this week, got a test from the 1-3 Florida Gators before closing out a 26-7 win. The Canes’ defense held the Gators to 32 yards in the first half and kept DJ Lagway under 100 yards passing.
Here are our experts’ top 12 College Football Playoff picks:
Andrea Adelson: 1. Ohio State 2. Miami 3. LSU 4. Oklahoma 5. Georgia 6. Oregon 7. Florida State 8. Texas A&M 9. Penn State 10. Indiana 11. TCU 12. Memphis
Kyle Bonagura: 1. Ohio State 2. Oregon 3. Georgia 4. Penn State 5. LSU 6. Miami 7. Florida State 8. Indiana 9. Oklahoma 10. Texas 11. Texas Tech 12. South Florida
Bill Connelly: 1. Oregon 2. Ohio State 3. Ole Miss 4. Texas A&M 5. Penn State 6. Miami 7. Georgia 8. Texas Tech 9. LSU 10. Florida State 11. Indiana 12. Memphis
David Hale: 1. Ohio State 2. Miami 3. Oregon 4. Georgia 5. Oklahoma 6. Penn State 7. Texas A&M 8. Texas 9. Indiana 10. Florida State 11. Texas Tech 12. Memphis
Max Olson: 1. Ohio State 2. Oregon 3. Miami 4. Georgia 5. LSU 6. Penn State 7. Texas A&M 8. Florida State 9. Texas Tech 10. Indiana 11. Texas 12. South Florida
Adam Rittenberg: 1. Ohio State 2. Georgia 3. Miami 4. Oregon 5. LSU 6. Penn State 7. Oklahoma 8. Florida State 9. Indiana 10. Texas Tech 11. Texas A&M 12. South Florida
Mark Schlabach: 1. Ohio State 2. Miami 3. Georgia 4. LSU 5. Oregon 6. Penn State 7. Florida State 8. Oklahoma 9. Texas Tech 10. Texas A&M 11. Indiana 12. South Florida
Jake Trotter: 1. Ohio State 2. Miami 3. Georgia 4. Penn State 5. LSU 6. Oregon 7. Oklahoma 8. Florida State 9. Texas Tech 10. Texas A&M 11. Indiana 12. South Florida
Paolo Uggetti: 1. Ohio State 2. Oregon 3. Georgia 4. Miami 5. Penn State 6. LSU 7. Oklahoma 8. Indiana 9. Texas Tech 10. Florida State 11. Texas A&M 12. Memphis
Dave Wilson: 1. Ohio State 2. Miami 3. Georgia 4. Penn State 5. LSU 6. Oregon 7. Oklahoma 8. Florida State 9. Texas Tech 10. Texas A&M 11. Indiana 12. South Florida
Is the U back?!
It’s been a minute.
With Miami’s win against rival Florida on Saturday night, the U — winners of five titles between 1983 and 2001 — made a case to be the top team in the country once again.
This is a program that hasn’t won an ACC title since joining the league in 2004, and now the Canes have positioned themselves as not only the top playoff contender in the conference, but also as the top team in the country. It’s still early, but statement wins are hard to come by, and Miami’s résumé now includes wins against Notre Dame, a ranked South Florida and rival Florida.
The 13-member College Football Playoff selection committee doesn’t release its first ranking until Nov. 4, but based on what each team has done to date, Miami is one of the few teams that has looked like the total package.
The list below is fluid — and will continue to be early in the season. Here’s the latest prediction of what the selection committee’s top 12 would look like if it were released today.
Projecting the top 12
Why they could be here: With wins against Notre Dame, South Florida and now rival Florida, Miami has the best combination of eye test and résumé. It didn’t come easy against the Gators, but Miami’s defense was stifling for the bulk of the game. The selection committee considers the intangibles that accompany a rivalry game and would acknowledge the difficulty of the win, even though Florida is struggling this year. As talented as Ohio State is, Miami now has a stronger case, given the Buckeyes’ best win was against a Texas team that has since fallen out of the projected top 12. Miami has cemented itself as the ACC’s top playoff contender — at least until it’s decided on the field on Oct. 4 against Florida State.
Why they could be lower: If the committee were to rank Ohio State No. 1 at this point, it would simply be because some members think the Buckeyes are more talented.
Need to know: Miami has the best chance of any Power 4 team in the country to win out (19.3%), according to ESPN Analytics.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 4 at Florida State. ESPN’s FPI gives Miami a 66.1% chance to win.
Why they could be here: The selection committee doesn’t typically move teams if they don’t play, unless there is movement around them — and Miami’s résumé bumped the Canes to the top spot this week. Ohio State’s season-opening win against Texas is still one of the best nonconference wins of the season, but that’s all the Buckeyes have at the moment. A win against Ohio and a 70-0 drubbing of FCS Grambling won’t impress the committee. A win against Texas will, but how much the committee values it on Selection Day depends on how the Longhorns fare all season.
Why they could be higher: If the committee has the Buckeyes at No. 1, it’s going to be by a paper-thin margin. Statistically, Ohio State and Miami entered the week almost dead even in all three phases of the game.
Need to know: According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, Ohio State entered this week tied with Georgia and Oregon for the best chance in the country to reach the CFP (77%).
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 1 vs. Penn State. ESPN’s FPI gives the Buckeyes a 64.9% chance to win.
Why they could be here: The 44-41 overtime win against Tennessee in Week 3 gave the Bulldogs their first statement win against a ranked opponent, and the committee will note that it was on the road. It helped slightly this week that Tennessee showed no signs of a letdown in a lopsided win against overmatched UAB.
Why they could be lower: The win against the Vols might not be enough. Georgia’s other wins are against Marshall and FCS Austin Peay.
Need to know: ESPN’s FPI projects Georgia will win each of its remaining games, which would put the Bulldogs back in the SEC title game. What happens, though, if they lose to Alabama on Saturday? There’s still plenty of time — and opportunity — to impress the committee with wins against opponents such as Auburn, Ole Miss, Texas and Georgia Tech. It’s possible that Georgia could have a win over the eventual ACC champion or runner-up.
Toughest remaining game: Saturday vs. Alabama. This game is at home, and the Bulldogs have an extra week to prepare for it, but the Tide have shown continuous improvement since their season-opening loss to Florida State. ESPN’s FPI gives Georgia a 55% chance to win. Even with a loss, the Allstate Playoff Predictor gives Georgia a 65.2% chance to reach the playoff, independent of other results.
Why they could be here: Florida State has been dominant, ranking No. 3 in the country in ESPN’s game control metric. The Noles also entered this week ranked No. 3 in strength of record. The Seminoles are passing the eye test but still need to beef up their résumé beyond a season-opening win against Alabama. The Tide were off this week but have played well against each of their past two unranked opponents, continuing to make Florida State’s win valuable in the committee meeting room. The Seminoles, though, won’t have another chance to impress the group against a ranked opponent until Oct. 4 against Miami.
Why they could be lower: FSU’s statistics are a bit skewed by the Noles’ 77-3 drubbing of FCS team East Texas A&M.
Need to know: Georgia Tech doesn’t face Florida State or Miami during the regular season but could play one of them in the ACC title game. That makes the regular-season rivalry game between the Noles and Canes critical to the ACC race. Entering Week 4, Miami (68%) and Georgia Tech (39.3%) had the best chances to reach the ACC championship game, followed by Florida State (24.1%).
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 4 vs. Miami. ESPN’s FPI gives the Canes a 66.1% chance to win. November games at Clemson and Florida no longer look as daunting.
Why they could be here: The Tigers’ two best wins — against Clemson and Florida — are now against unranked teams with losing records. Florida State has looked better offensively, and its win against Alabama is better than LSU’s wins. The Tigers’ defense, though, has been something the committee members would notice. LSU hasn’t allowed any opponent more than 10 points this season and is fifth in the country in defensive efficiency.
Why they could be lower: Some questions remain about the offensive line, which features four new starters and hasn’t always given quarterback Garrett Nussmeier the time he needs. Nussmeier entered Saturday averaging 5.88 air yards per pass attempt, and the Tigers are still searching for more explosive plays. LSU’s 17 explosive plays entering Saturday were the fewest in the SEC. LSU is No. 62 in the country in offensive efficiency. The selection committee looks for teams that are in the top 10 in both offense and defense.
Need to know: LSU has a chance to enhance its résumé on Saturday at Ole Miss, where a win would be its most impressive to date and provide some cushion for a tough upcoming stretch. LSU’s schedule is No. 9 in the country, according to ESPN Analytics.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 8 at Alabama. ESPN’s FPI gives the Tide a 77.1% chance to win.
Why they could be here: Texas A&M had a bye this week after earning one of the best nonconference wins in the country last week at Notre Dame. The Aggies saw their playoff chances increase by 26% following that win. Texas A&M entered this week with a 47% chance to make the playoff. Still, the Aggies are clinging to one win to boost their entire résumé right now, as the rest of their schedule includes UTSA and Utah State.
Why they could be higher: Texas A&M entered this week ranked No. 1 in ESPN’s strength of metric record, which means the average top-25 opponent would have a 37% chance of achieving the same 3-0 record against the same opponents. Some committee members would view the Aggies’ win at Notre Dame as more impressive than the Canes’ win against the Irish because Texas A&M had to win on the road.
Need to know: If Texas A&M doesn’t win the SEC, and it finishes as a 10-2 team — and Notre Dame runs the table and also finishes 10-2 — the selection committee would use the head-to-head result as one of its tiebreakers and give the Aggies the edge. ESPN’s FPI, though, gives Texas A&M less than a 50% chance to beat LSU, Missouri and Texas.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 25 at LSU. The Aggies also have a very difficult trip to rival Texas in the regular-season finale, but right now the Tigers look like a tougher out on the road. ESPN’s FPI gives LSU a 51.6% chance to win.
Why they could be here: Wins against Michigan and Auburn have legitimized the Sooners’ playoff hopes, giving them two quality wins against what could be CFP top 25 opponents. The win against the Wolverines helps separate OU from other contenders with weaker nonconference wins, and it looks even better after the Wolverines beat Nebraska on the road. The selection committee also appreciates star power, and the Sooners have it with quarterback John Mateer, who has a passing and rushing touchdown in 10 straight games.
Why they could be higher: Mateer has been the story early, but the defense and its 10 sacks were the highlight in the win against Auburn, giving the committee a complete team to consider. The wins against Michigan and Auburn might also outweigh the Aggies’ lone win at Notre Dame, though it was on the road and OU won both of its big games at home. The committee would debate if two good wins outweigh one great one — an argument that could also be made with regard to Florida State and its win over Alabama.
Need to know: The Sooners have the fourth-toughest schedule in the FBS, according to ESPN Analytics, so the undefeated start provides a critical cushion for a backloaded schedule that could include as many as six ranked opponents in the final seven games.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 1 at Tennessee. Given how tough the Vols played in their overtime loss to Georgia, this should be another slugfest between two talented teams. ESPN’s FPI gives the Vols a 64.3% chance to win.
Why they could be here: The Ducks continue to dismantle weaker competition, including their winless in-state rival Oregon State (0-4) on Saturday. Oregon’s place in the playoff order has nothing to do with résumé and everything to do with dominant wins. The Ducks entered the week ranked No. 1 in ESPN’s game control metric, No. 3 in points margin and No. 2 in the country with 54 points per game. Oregon is No. 1 in offensive efficiency and No. 4 in defensive efficiency, making the Ducks one of the most complete teams in the country.
Why they could be lower: Montana State is an FCS team. Oklahoma State’s program has imploded. And a win against Northwestern amounts to a shoulder shrug. The stats are inflated because of the opponents the Ducks beat.
Need to know: Oregon has the best chance in the Big Ten to make the conference championship game (55.1%) and win it (34%), according to ESPN Analytics.
Toughest remaining game: Sept. 27 at Penn State. ESPN’s FPI gives the Nittany Lions a 52% chance to win — it’s the only game on the Ducks’ schedule they’re not favored to win.
Why they could be here: The Nittany Lions had a bye this week, and wins against Nevada, Florida International and Villanova are keeping them behind contenders with better résumés. Penn State entered Week 4 ranked No. 41 in ESPN’s strength of record metric — and every team listed above is ranked in the top 20.
Why they could be lower: Penn State ranks No. 71 in the country in offensive efficiency — well below what’s typical of past playoff participants. No wins against Power 4 opponents would also hold the Nittany Lions back. Quarterback Drew Allar entered the week ranked No. 111 in QBR (38.4) and has just four touchdowns and one interception.
Need to know: Penn State hosts Oregon on Saturday in a game that will finally reveal how seriously to take the Nittany Lions. ESPN’s FPI gives Penn State a 52% chance to win. If it doesn’t, it will likely need to beat Ohio State on the road to get a chance at the Big Ten title game — and possibly a rematch with Oregon. Without a win against the Ducks OR Ohio State — and with no Big Ten title game appearance — Penn State’s best chance for a notable win would be against Indiana on Nov. 8. A 10-2 Notre Dame would arguably have a better résumé with the same record.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 1 at Ohio State. It’s the only game on the schedule for which ESPN’s FPI doesn’t favor the Nittany Lions, as Ohio State has a 64.9% chance to win.
Why they could be here: The selection committee considers how teams win — and how they lose — and the Vols have managed to do both as well as can be expected. The committee isn’t going to penalize Tennessee for its 44-41 overtime loss to Georgia, though it will keep the Vols behind the Dawgs as long as their records are comparable. And the season-opening win against Syracuse looks even better after the Orange won at Clemson on Saturday.
Why they could be lower: The Vols are still missing a true statement win, though Syracuse can be a CFP Top 25 team on Selection Day.
Need to know: The Vols’ chances of reaching the SEC title game are slim, according to ESPN Analytics, which gives Tennessee just an 8.1% chance to reach the game and a 4.4% chance to win the title. Tennessee earned a spot in the playoff last year, though, as an at-large team, and can do that again, but it can’t go 0-2 against Alabama and Oklahoma.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 18 at Alabama. ESPN’s FPI gives the Tide a 66.3% chance to win. It’s the only game on the schedule the Vols aren’t projected to win.
Why they could be here: The Hoosiers have a convincing win against a veteran Illinois team that last week was in this spot. They had dominated their previous two opponents (Kennesaw State and FCS Indiana State), but this was the first chance to show the committee a complete performance against a ranked Big Ten opponent. The Illini had won each of their first three games by at least 25 points. The committee would also highlight the strong play of IU quarterback Fernando Mendoza, who leads the Big Ten in touchdown passes. He continued that success against an Illinois defense that had allowed only two passing touchdowns in three games.
Why they could be lower: Some committee members could be more impressed with Ole Miss, which entered this week ranked No. 6 in the country in ESPN’s strength of record metric. They could also consider a bigger boost for Texas Tech, which won on the road, whereas the Hoosiers won at home. The committee would also consider the injury to Texas Tech’s starting quarterback.
Need to know: If the Hoosiers are a playoff team for the second straight season, they will have earned it with a more difficult schedule this year, as they still have to face Oregon and Penn State — both on the road. If IU doesn’t win the Big Ten title, it probably needs to at least split with those opponents to win a debate with another contender for an at-large bid.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 11 at Oregon. ESPN’s FPI gives the Ducks an 82.3% chance to win.
Why they could be here: The win at Utah is better than anything Texas has on its résumé — and the Red Raiders got it done with their backup quarterback. With the win, Texas Tech’s chances of reaching the Big 12 title game jumped to 40%, according to ESPN Analytics. Texas Tech is also getting credit here for beating Oregon State in the same way Oregon did (the Red Raiders beat the Beavers 45-14 a week before the Ducks upended them 41-7 on Saturday). Beating a respectable Utah team, though, in the first Big 12 game for both teams helped Texas Tech enter the playoff conversation as the league’s new leading contender.
Why they could be lower: Ole Miss has had three straight wins against respectable opponents, including back-to-back wins against SEC opponents Kentucky and Arkansas earlier this month. The Rebels also have a case for moving into the committee’s top 12.
Need to know: If Texas Tech doesn’t win the Big 12, it could have trouble earning an at-large bid because it might not play another ranked opponent this season. It’s hard to imagine the committee leaving out a one-loss Big 12 runner-up, though. If the Red Raiders were to lose a close game to a ranked opponent in the league title game, they would still have a strong case for an at-large bid. If they finish as a two-loss runner-up, though, they could lose a debate for an at-large bid with another contender with a better résumé.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 8 at BYU. ESPN’s FPI gives BYU a 51.4% chance to win. It’s the only remaining game the Red Raiders aren’t favored to win.
Bracket
Based on the rankings above, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 2 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 3 Georgia (SEC champ)
No. 4 Florida State
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 Memphis (American champ) at No. 5 LSU
No. 11 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ) at No. 6 Texas A&M
No. 10 Tennessee at No. 7 Oklahoma
No. 9 Penn State at No. 8 Oregon
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 Memphis/No. 5 LSU winner vs. No. 4 Florida State
No. 11 Texas Tech/No. 6 Texas A&M winner vs. No. 3 Georgia
No. 10 Tennessee/No. 7 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 2 Ohio State
No. 9 Penn State/No. 8 Oregon winner vs. No. 1 Penn State
AUSTIN, Texas — Arch Manning passed for 309 yards and three touchdowns in his sharpest game of the season so far as No. 8 Texas cruised to a 55-0 win over Sam Houston on Saturday night.
Manning was 18-of-21 passing and also ran for two first-half touchdowns. He connected with Ryan Wingo for touchdowns of 53 and 13 yards in the third quarter before leaving the game with Texas (3-1) leading 45-0.
“It felt good,” Manning said. “I wish I could have done that the last [three] weeks. But I’m glad we did it tonight … Got the ball in my guys’ hands and let them go to work.”
Manning needed a confidence-builder after a poor start to the season and got one against the overmatched Bearkats (0-4). His passes looked crisp and decisive, and after his first touchdown run of the game, he stood and flexed over a defender before a game official broke them up.
His Texas teammates were glad to see it.
“He got his swagger back,” Texas senior safety Michael Taaffe said. “Everybody knew that it was in there. What he showed tonight is what we expect.”
Manning said he worried he’d get a taunting penalty, and that he quickly apologized to the game official.
“Probably a little much there. My mom was pretty mad about it,” Manning said. “I think it was some built-up frustration for the past few weeks.”
Manning had come into the game completing just 55% of his passes. The preseason betting favorite for the Heisman Trophy had promised several times during the week that he would start playing better. At one point Saturday night, Manning completed 14 passes in a row.
“When he plays a little looser and he’s free, that’s the best version of Arch,” Texas coach Steve Sarkisian said. “He got going and started throwing the ball. Started using his legs. You could feel the bounce in his step on the field.”
Manning said he won’t concern himself with the national chatter about him this week, or the critics who dismissed him after the first few games.
“I’m not really worried about what anyone thinks of the narratives. I’m just trying to play ball, get wins. That’s most important, especially going into SEC play. Right?” he said.
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