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The risks of the Gaza war expanding into a much bigger regional conflict had seemed to have subsided. Not any longer.

Comments from Iranian and American leaders in the last 24 hours may be entirely predictable but they raise the prospects of escalation.

Iran knows it’s been directly attacked in the airstrike on its embassy in Damascus and unless it retaliates it is weakened.

And in this region that is dangerous.

So on Wednesday, celebrating the end of Ramadan, Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei issued a stern warning that Israel must be punished and will be.

Middle East latest:
Iran attack on Israel could be imminent

Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei speaks during a meeting with members of the Air Force in Tehran, Iran 
Piv:WANA/Reuters
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Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Piv: WANA/Reuters

The US president knows the attack presumed by most to have been the work of its ally Israel violated international law which declares embassies ‘inviolable’.

And Biden’s relations with the man who almost certainly ordered it, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, are rock bottom.

But the US president also knows any sign of weakness on his part is dangerous, too.

It would only embolden Iran to do its worst and that in turn would provoke Israel to do the same – potentially setting the entire region alight.

Joe Biden during a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Pic: AP
Image:
Relations are strained between Biden and Netanyahu. Pic: AP

So Joe Biden has declared his ironclad support for Israel and raised the prospect of America becoming directly involved if war were to break out between its ally and Iran.

It is exactly the same calculus that led the US president to send two naval carrier groups to the waters off Israel in the wake of the 7 October attacks by Hamas to warn Iran – ‘don’t get involved’.

That move was successful. This time Biden may need to do more.

Read more:
Three sons of Hamas leader killed in Israeli strike
Key element in path to peace still missing

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Biden: ‘We want to address Iranian threat’

Iran has shown remarkable restraint holding back in this war despite frequent attacks by Israel on its assets and allies in Syria and Lebanon.

It has done so by claiming those attacks were not direct strikes on Iran itself.

The logic is clear. The ayatollahs are weak at home after the biggest uprising against its rule since its revolution and a regional war would be devastating.

But a direct attack on an embassy can’t be overlooked. The Iranians have made that clear.

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They believe they have to retaliate.

But by the same logic, they may try to calibrate their response to avert a regional conflagration.

The region watches and waits.

The balance of stability in the Middle East hangs on Tehran’s decision.

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Wildfire in Israel burns 5,000 acres as drivers forced to flee cars

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Wildfire in Israel burns 5,000 acres as drivers forced to flee cars

Emergency crews in Israel are battling a wildfire that sent smoke drifting over Jerusalem and forced drivers to run from their cars.

About 5,000 acres (20 square kilometres) have been scorched since the blaze started in the hills outside the city on Wednesday.

The ambulance service said at least 12 people had been treated in hospital, mainly for smoke inhalation, but the fire service said “miraculously” no homes had been damaged.

Ten firefighting planes were dropping fire retardant material on Thursday and authorities said eight more were due to arrive.

Pic: Reuters
Image:
Pic: Reuters

The fire is now said to be mostly contained. Pic: Reuters
Image:
The fire is now said to be mostly contained. Pic: Reuters

Spain, Italy, France, Croatia, Ukraine and Romania are among those sending aircraft.

People celebrating Israel‘s independence day on Thursday were advised to be exceptionally careful if holding barbecues and told to avoid forests and parks.

Most official celebrations were cancelled as security forces were diverted to the fire effort.

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The blaze is the most significant the country has seen in the past decade, according to Tal Volvovitch, from the fire and rescue authority.

However, an evacuation order for about 12 towns near Jerusalem has been lifted and the main highway linking Jerusalem to Tel Aviv also reopened on Thursday.

A day earlier, drivers had to abandoned their vehicles when flames encroached on the road.

Pic: Reuters
Image:
Pic: Reuters

Firefighting is continuing but the blaze has now been mostly contained, said the Jewish National Fund, which manages forests in the country.

It said conditions had been perfect for fires to spread – hot and dry, little rain over winter, and strong, shifting winds.

“Of course when there’s a series of drought years, it’s a fertile ground for fires,” said the fund’s Anat Gold, adding that climate change was the likely cause.

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Israel often gets wildfires in the summer but it’s unusual for them to break out this early in the year.

In 2010, a forest fire burned for four days on Israel’s Mount Carmel, claiming 44 lives and destroying around 12,000 acres.

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US-Ukraine deal no longer looks like gangsters running a protection racket – but Trump could still end military support

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US-Ukraine deal no longer looks like gangsters running a protection racket - but Trump could still end military support

This is a significant moment in this war.

It strengthens ties between Ukraine and the US which have been fraying to the point of disintegration.

But will it increase the chances of a diplomatic breakthrough to find peace? Possibly not. Without that, this agreement will have changed little in this pointless grinding war.

But it does give Donald Trump a personal political investment in a conflict he has always seemed to have regarded as someone else’s fault, someone else’s problem and a money pit for US resources.

On the face of it, it is a purely economic agreement.

Ukraine had wanted to tie in explicit guarantees of continuing US military support. The details are scant but they appear to be absent.

But reaching agreement is a considerable diplomatic achievement on both sides.

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The negotiations have been painful.

Ukraine war latest: Follow live updates

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Trump and Zelenskyy – it’s complicated?

The idea of a minerals deal was initially proposed by President Zelenskyy but at times he must have regretted it as acrimonious talks threatened to torpedo US support for Ukraine entirely.

It was meant to have been signed in February before the infamous Zelenskyy-Trump-Vance bust up in the Oval Office.

At one point it looked like an act of extortion. Like gangsters running a protection racket, the US seemed to be demanding all Ukraine’s mineral wealth in return for continued support.

But the terms now look less onerous. Most importantly it seems the Trump administration is not asking retrospectively for the return of billions given by the Biden administration, by means of this minerals extraction agreement.

The turning point in negotiations appears to have been the meeting engineered between Mr Trump and Mr Zelenskyy on the sidelines of the Pope’s funeral in Rome on Saturday. Mr Zelenskyy appears to have persuaded Mr Trump it was a deal worth signing.

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From February: Watch Trump and Zelenskyy clash

The terms are vague and not detailed but the agreement appears to be more of a long term proposal for joint cooperation over Ukraine’s economic future.

America will invest in exploiting Ukraine’s mineral wealth but also share the profits years down the line.

The signing comes at a crucial time for Ukraine. Its forces are losing ground on the battlefield. And Mr Trump’s efforts to broker peace look decidedly one-sided against them.

Falling in line on this deal was essential for Ukrainians. Whether it saves them from President Trump walking away and ending military support for them anyway, is by no means certain.

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Two children from Gaza enter UK for specialist medical care for first time after months of struggle

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Two children from Gaza enter UK for specialist medical care for first time after months of struggle

It was a welcome party of sorts, and it was assembled near arrivals at Heathrow’s Terminal 5.

A few people clutched flowers, others brought presents, while everyone carried a sense of relief.

Two children from Gaza had been given permission to enter Britain for specialist medical care and the pair would arrive on the evening flight from Cairo.

It was a significant moment – the first time UK visas had been granted to children from this war-ravaged enclave – and the product of months of struggle by a small group of British volunteers.

Ghena Abed, five, needs urgent treatment to save the vision in her left eye
Image:
Ghena Abed, five, needs urgent treatment to save the vision in her left eye

As those in attendance offered up a cheer, a five-year-old called Ghena Abed emerged shyly from behind the security gates. With fluid pressing on her optic nerve, she needs urgent treatment to save the vision in her left eye.

Also in this party was a 12-year-old girl called Rama Qudiah. She is weak and malnourished and suffers from incontinence. Medics think she requires an operation on her bowel.

Medics think Rama Qudiah, 12, needs a bowel operation
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Medics think Rama Qudiah, 12, needs a bowel operation

Her mother, Rana, told us their arrival in Britian “is just a like a dream”.

Her daughter has certainly been fortunate. A small number of children from Gaza have benefited from medical evacuations, with the majority receiving care in countries in the Middle East, Europe, as well as the United States.

Rama's mother, Rana
Image:
Rama’s mother, Rana

In March, the Israelis signed a deal with Jordan which could allow 2,000 children to leave the enclave for treatment of war injuries and conditions like cancer. However, just 29 were allowed to go at first instance.

The process has not been easy

Until now, not a single child from Gaza has entered the UK for medical care since the start of the current conflict, and the process has not been an easy one for the volunteers at Project Pure Hope.

They told Sky News it has taken 17 months to arrange temporary visas for Ghena and Rama.

Dr Farzana Rahman from Project Pure Hope
Image:
Dr Farzana Rahman from Project Pure Hope

“A lot of us are health care workers and I think it’s in our DNA that when we see people who are suffering, particularly children, we want to try and do something and that’s what motivated us,” says Dr Farzana Rahman from Project Pure Hope.

When asked why she thinks it has taken so much time to secure their visas, Dr Rahman said: “I don’t know.”

Group argues it has no time to lose to help other children

But it is clear the arrival of children from Gaza is an issue of sensitivity. The British volunteers told us on a number of occasions that all costs would be met by private sources. The children will return to Gaza when the treatment is completed.

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Project Pure Hope is not finished, however – group members have drawn up a list of other children they can help, and argue they have no time to lose.

“One of the hardest parts of trying to make progress in this area is that delays cost lives. A number of children have died who we haven’t been able to help and this is an urgent situation and I think for all of us that’s the hardest part,” says Dr Rahman.

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