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Just a few years ago, the bitcoin halving was something celebrated by only the earliest cryptocurrency lovers, who swore by it as a core feature of a revolutionary, anti-establishment deflationary asset.
Now, bitcoin has been embraced by the biggest institutions on Wall Street and continues to draw curious retail investors in each cycle. From the gleeful to the perplexed to the unimpressed, crypto market watchers know this halving is coming and that it must mean something good for bitcoin.
This is a technical event that takes place on the bitcoin network roughly every four years, cutting the supply of the cryptocurrency in half to create a scarcity effect that makes it like “digital gold.” Historically, it sets the stage for a new cycle and bull run – but this one’s a little different.
“The halving is the ultimate geek event for bitcoiners, but the 2024 iteration takes it up a notch because reduced supply combined with fresh ETF demand creates an explosive cocktail,” said Antoni Trenchev, co-founder of crypto exchange Nexo. “What makes this halving unique is bitcoin has already surpassed the last cycle’s high — something it’s never done ahead of the quadrennial event — which makes trying to forecast the length and ferocity of this cycle much trickier.”
Bitcoin (BTC), entering its fourth halving period next week.
After the 2012, 2016 and 2020 halvings, the bitcoin price ran up about 93x, 30x and 8x, respectively, from its halving day price to its cycle top. Past performance isn’t indicative of future returns, and some even warn that in dealing with a smaller supply every four years, the days of such a big impact on the bitcoin price are likely already behind us.
However, Steven Lubka, head of private clients and family offices at Swan Bitcoin, said “if there was ever a moment to be a little extra optimistic” about returns after the having, it’s this year.
“This bitcoin bull cycle — which kicked into gear earlier because of the January approval of the spot ETFs — might well be shorter and more explosive, culminating in a peak in late 2024 or early 2025,” Trenchev added.
Whether you seek a deeper understanding of bitcoin as a new, deflationary asset, or you simply want to speculate on the bitcoin price in the coming weeks, here’s what you need to know about the halving and its potential impact on the market.
What’s happening?
The halving occurs when incentives for bitcoin miners are cut by half, as mandated by the code of the bitcoin blockchain. It’s scheduled to take place every 210,000 blocks, or roughly four years.
As a refresher, miners run the machines that do the work (essentially solving a very complex math problem) of recording new blocks of bitcoin transactions and adding them to the global ledger, also known as the blockchain.
Miners have two incentives to mine: transaction fees that are paid voluntarily by senders (for faster settlement) and mining rewards — 6.25 newly created bitcoins, or about $437,500 as of Thursday morning. Sometime between April 18 and April 21, the mining rewards will shrink to 3.125 bitcoins. The incentive was initially 50 bitcoins, but that was reduced to 6.25 in 2020.
The reduction in the block rewards leads to a reduction in the supply of bitcoin by slowing the pace at which new coins are created, helping maintain the idea of bitcoin as digital gold — whose finite supply helps determine its value. Eventually, the number of bitcoins in circulation will cap at 21 million, per the bitcoin code.
Market impact now and later
The halving isn’t like an on-off switch that gets flipped at a specific time. Indeed, it’s reasonable to think that the day will come and go without much action in the market. Of course, there certainly could be volatility driven by speculators who may be trading on the event. Swan’s Lubka warned that investors shouldn’t confuse that with the technical change taking place.
“I don’t think we see a big move either way, but even if there were a big move, it’d have nothing to do mechanically with the halving,” he said. However, “in the months that follow, every day there [will be] something like $30 million in bitcoin less being sold. That can build up fast and make an impact over that time period.”
That $30 million assumes a bitcoin price of about $70,000.
The one big thing investors need to understand about the halving and its potential impact on the market, Lubka said, is that miners sell a lot of the bitcoin they get paid in order to pay their everyday bills.
“These are very costly enterprises that have to consume a lot of energy and other things to do their job,” he said. “Miners are constantly selling the bitcoin that they mine just to cover costs. When that gets cut in half, there’s no two ways about it: There is half as much bitcoin being sold from the miners.”
“They are the most regular sellers,” he added. “Some hedge fund could sell its position … but miners are selling every day, every week, every month in predictable quantity — and that pressure gets cut in half.”
Diminishing returns from halving to halving
Bitcoin has always shot to the moon in the months following its halving — that’s what makes it such a celebrated day among enthusiasts. However, each time the mining reward and supply of bitcoin has shrunk, so have the returns from the halving day to the cycle top.
“Guessing the endgame for bitcoin after each halving is the ultimate sport,” said Trenchev. “What we do know is each post-halving bull run has seen diminishing returns. … Even a measly 2x will put bitcoin around $130,000 — not to be sniffed at.”
That trend could reverse this year, Lubka said, although it’d be the result not of the planned supply shock but rather of the new demand shock. Thanks to the advent of bitcoin exchange-traded funds, demand for the cryptocurrency is bigger than ever, according to CryptoQuant.
The data shows that historically, “whale” demand for bitcoin spikes after each halving, driving prices higher. This year, however, that whale demand (which includes OG bitcoiners, new investors and bitcoin ETF holders) is already at an all-time high, and the block reward hasn’t even been slashed yet.
“The once-significant influence of bitcoin halving on prices has diminished, as the new issuance of bitcoin gets smaller relative to the total amount of bitcoin that is available for sale,” said Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant. “In contrast … bitcoin demand growth seems to be the key driver for higher prices after the halving.”
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang says artificial intelligence is the “great equalizer” because it lets anyone program using everyday language.
Speaking at London Tech Week on Monday, Huang said that, historically, computing was hard and not available to everyone. “We had to learn programming languages. We had to architect it. We had to design these computers that are very complicated,” he said on stage alongside U.K. Prime Minister Kier Starmer.
“Now, all of a sudden … there’s a new programming language. This new programming language is called ‘human.'”
Conversational AI models were thrown into the spotlight in 2022 when OpenAI‘s ChatGPT exploded onto the scene. In February, the San Francisco-based tech company said it had 400 million weekly active users.
Users can ask chatbots, such as ChatGPT, Google’s Gemini or Microsoft’s Copilot, questions and they respond in a conversational way that feels more like talking to another human than an AI system.
Jensen Huang, co-founder and chief executive officer of Nvidia, at the London Tech Week exposition in London, UK, on Monday, June 9, 2025.
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CEO Huang, whose company engineers some of the world’s most advanced semiconductors and AI chips, highlighted that this technology can now be used in programming. He highlighted that very few people know how to use programming languages like C++ or Python, but “everybody … knows ‘human’.”
“The way you program a computer today, to ask the computer to do something for you, even write a program, generate images, write a poem — just ask it nicely,” he said. “And the thing that’s really, really quite amazing is the way you program an AI is like the way you program a person.”
He gave the example of simply asking a computer to write a poem to describe the keynote speech at the London Tech Week event.
“You say: You are an incredible poet … And I would like you to write a poem to describe today’s keynote. And without very much effort, this AI would help you generate such a wonderful poem,” he said.
“And when it answers … you could say: I feel like you could do even better. And it would go off and think about it, and it’ll come back and say, in fact, I I can do better, and it does do a better job.”
Huang’s comments come as a growing number of companies — such as Shopify, Duolingo and Fiverr — encourage their employees to incorporate AI into their work. Indeed, last week OpenAI announced that it has 3 million paying business users.
Huang regularly touts AI’s ability to help workers do their jobs more efficiently and has encouraged workers to embrace the technology as they look to make themselves valuable employees — especially given the horror stories around AI’s potential to replace jobs.
“This way of interacting with computers, I think, is something that almost anybody can do, and I would just encourage everybody to engage it,” Huang added on Monday. “Children are already doing that themselves naturally, and this is going to be transformative.
— CNBC’s Cheyenne DeVon and Ashton Jackson contributed to this report.
Jensen Huang, co-founder and CEO of Nvidia Corp., speaks during a news conference in Taipei on May 21, 2025.
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LONDON — Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang poured praise on the U.K. on Monday, promising to boost investment in the country’s artificial intelligence sector with his multitrillion-dollar semiconductor company.
“The U.K. is in a Goldilocks circumstance,” Huang said, speaking on a panel with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Investment Minister Poppy Gustafsson. “You can’t do machine learning without a machine — and so the ability to build these AI supercomputers here in the U.K. will naturally attract more startups.”
The Nvidia boss went on to say, “I think it’s just such an incredible, incredible place to invest. I’m going to invest here.”
Huang also stressed that Britain “has one of the richest AI communities anywhere on the planet,” along with “amazing startups” such as DeepMind, Wayve, and Synthesia, ElevenLabs.
“The ecosystem is really perfect for take-off — it’s just missing one thing,” he said, referring to a lack of homegrown, sovereign U.K. AI infrastructure.
Earlier on Monday, Nvidia announced a new U.K. sovereign AI industry forum, as well as commitments from cloud vendors Nscale and Nebius to deploy new facilities in the country with thousands of the semiconductor giant’s Blackwell GPU chips.
The U.K. has been touting its potential as a global AI player in recent months, amid Keir Starmer’s efforts to lead his Labour government with a growth-focused agenda.
In January, Starmer unveiled a bold plan to boost the domestic U.K. AI sector, promising to relax planning rules around new data center developments and increase British computing power by twenty-fold by 2030.
This is a breaking news story. Please check back for updates.
LONDON — Britain’s financial services watchdog on Monday announced a new tie-up with U.S. chipmaker Nvidia to let banks safely experiment with artificial intelligence.
The Financial Conduct Authority said it will launch a so-called Supercharged Sandbox that will “give firms access to better data, technical expertise and regulatory support to speed up innovation.”
Starting from October, financial services institutions in the U.K. will be allowed to experiment with AI using Nvidia’s accelerated computing and AI Enterprise Software products, the watchdog said in a press release.
The initiative is designed for firms in the “discovery and experiment phase” with AI, the FCA noted, adding that a separate live testing service exists for firms further along in AI development.
“This collaboration will help those that want to test AI ideas but who lack the capabilities to do so,” Jessica Rusu, the FCA’s chief data, intelligence and information officer, said in a statement. “We’ll help firms harness AI to benefit our markets and consumers, while supporting economic growth.”
The FCA’s new sandbox addresses a key issue for banks, which have faced challenges shipping advanced new AI tools to their customers amid concerns over risks around privacy and fraud.
Large language models from the likes of OpenAI and Google send data back to overseas facilities — and privacy regulators have raised the alarm over how this information is stored and processed. There have meanwhile been several instances of malicious actors using generative AI to scam people.
Nvidia is behind the graphics processing units, or GPUs, used to train and run powerful AI models. The company’s CEO, Jensen Huang, is expected to give a keynote talk at a tech conference in London on Monday morning.
Last year, HSBC’s generative AI lead, Edward Achtner, told a London tech conference he sees “a lot of success theater” in finance when it comes to artificial intelligence — hinting that some financial services firms are touting advances in AI without tangible product innovations to show for it.
He added that, while banks like HSBC have used AI for many years, new generative AI tools like OpenAI’s ChatGPT come with their own unique compliance risks.