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Just a few years ago, the bitcoin halving was something celebrated by only the earliest cryptocurrency lovers, who swore by it as a core feature of a revolutionary, anti-establishment deflationary asset.

Now, bitcoin has been embraced by the biggest institutions on Wall Street and continues to draw curious retail investors in each cycle. From the gleeful to the perplexed to the unimpressed, crypto market watchers know this halving is coming and that it must mean something good for bitcoin.

This is a technical event that takes place on the bitcoin network roughly every four years, cutting the supply of the cryptocurrency in half to create a scarcity effect that makes it like “digital gold.” Historically, it sets the stage for a new cycle and bull run – but this one’s a little different.

“The halving is the ultimate geek event for bitcoiners, but the 2024 iteration takes it up a notch because reduced supply combined with fresh ETF demand creates an explosive cocktail,” said Antoni Trenchev, co-founder of crypto exchange Nexo. “What makes this halving unique is bitcoin has already surpassed the last cycle’s high — something it’s never done ahead of the quadrennial event — which makes trying to forecast the length and ferocity of this cycle much trickier.”

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Bitcoin (BTC), entering its fourth halving period next week.

After the 2012, 2016 and 2020 halvings, the bitcoin price ran up about 93x, 30x and 8x, respectively, from its halving day price to its cycle top. Past performance isn’t indicative of future returns, and some even warn that in dealing with a smaller supply every four years, the days of such a big impact on the bitcoin price are likely already behind us.

However, Steven Lubka, head of private clients and family offices at Swan Bitcoin, said “if there was ever a moment to be a little extra optimistic” about returns after the having, it’s this year.

“This bitcoin bull cycle — which kicked into gear earlier because of the January approval of the spot ETFs — might well be shorter and more explosive, culminating in a peak in late 2024 or early 2025,” Trenchev added.

Whether you seek a deeper understanding of bitcoin as a new, deflationary asset, or you simply want to speculate on the bitcoin price in the coming weeks, here’s what you need to know about the halving and its potential impact on the market.

What’s happening?

The halving occurs when incentives for bitcoin miners are cut by half, as mandated by the code of the bitcoin blockchain. It’s scheduled to take place every 210,000 blocks, or roughly four years.

As a refresher, miners run the machines that do the work (essentially solving a very complex math problem) of recording new blocks of bitcoin transactions and adding them to the global ledger, also known as the blockchain.

Miners have two incentives to mine: transaction fees that are paid voluntarily by senders (for faster settlement) and mining rewards — 6.25 newly created bitcoins, or about $437,500 as of Thursday morning. Sometime between April 18 and April 21, the mining rewards will shrink to 3.125 bitcoins. The incentive was initially 50 bitcoins, but that was reduced to 6.25 in 2020.

The reduction in the block rewards leads to a reduction in the supply of bitcoin by slowing the pace at which new coins are created, helping maintain the idea of bitcoin as digital gold — whose finite supply helps determine its value. Eventually, the number of bitcoins in circulation will cap at 21 million, per the bitcoin code.

Market impact now and later

The halving isn’t like an on-off switch that gets flipped at a specific time. Indeed, it’s reasonable to think that the day will come and go without much action in the market. Of course, there certainly could be volatility driven by speculators who may be trading on the event. Swan’s Lubka warned that investors shouldn’t confuse that with the technical change taking place.

“I don’t think we see a big move either way, but even if there were a big move, it’d have nothing to do mechanically with the halving,” he said. However, “in the months that follow, every day there [will be] something like $30 million in bitcoin less being sold. That can build up fast and make an impact over that time period.”

That $30 million assumes a bitcoin price of about $70,000.

The one big thing investors need to understand about the halving and its potential impact on the market, Lubka said, is that miners sell a lot of the bitcoin they get paid in order to pay their everyday bills.

“These are very costly enterprises that have to consume a lot of energy and other things to do their job,” he said. “Miners are constantly selling the bitcoin that they mine just to cover costs. When that gets cut in half, there’s no two ways about it: There is half as much bitcoin being sold from the miners.”

“They are the most regular sellers,” he added. “Some hedge fund could sell its position … but miners are selling every day, every week, every month in predictable quantity — and that pressure gets cut in half.”

Diminishing returns from halving to halving

Bitcoin has always shot to the moon in the months following its halving — that’s what makes it such a celebrated day among enthusiasts. However, each time the mining reward and supply of bitcoin has shrunk, so have the returns from the halving day to the cycle top.

“Guessing the endgame for bitcoin after each halving is the ultimate sport,” said Trenchev. “What we do know is each post-halving bull run has seen diminishing returns. … Even a measly 2x will put bitcoin around $130,000 — not to be sniffed at.”

That trend could reverse this year, Lubka said, although it’d be the result not of the planned supply shock but rather of the new demand shock. Thanks to the advent of bitcoin exchange-traded funds, demand for the cryptocurrency is bigger than ever, according to CryptoQuant.

The data shows that historically, “whale” demand for bitcoin spikes after each halving, driving prices higher. This year, however, that whale demand (which includes OG bitcoiners, new investors and bitcoin ETF holders) is already at an all-time high, and the block reward hasn’t even been slashed yet.

“The once-significant influence of bitcoin halving on prices has diminished, as the new issuance of bitcoin gets smaller relative to the total amount of bitcoin that is available for sale,” said Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant. “In contrast … bitcoin demand growth seems to be the key driver for higher prices after the halving.”

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Evolve Bank CEO fired after propositioning FBI agent who pretended to be a teen boy

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Evolve Bank CEO fired after propositioning FBI agent who pretended to be a teen boy

Evolve Bank CEO Bob Hartheimer booking photo.

Source: Shelby County Jail

Bob Hartheimer, CEO of Tennessee’s Evolve Bank & Trust, was fired after U.S. law enforcement officials caught him propositioning a law enforcement officer posing as a 15-year-old boy on gay dating app Grindr.

On Oct. 19, an employee of the Federal Bureau of Investigation logged onto Grindr while pretending to be a teen boy, and a user called “Tomm” wrote a message to that person saying, “Hey any chance u would hu with an older and chill guy,” according to an affidavit from a special agent with the Federal Bureau of Investigation that was unsealed on Tuesday.

The two discussed getting together in person later in the week, according to the affidavit. On Snapchat, they talked about the sex acts they might perform. “Tomm” asked for a photo of the “boy” without shorts on, and he also sent the undercover agent a picture of himself naked. The FBI was able to obtain an IP address for “Tomm” from Snapchat, as well as an address from Comcast, the affidavit showed.

Hartheimer was arrested in Memphis on Oct. 23 for attempted production of child pornography and transfer of obscene material to a minor, according to a warrant.

Blake Ballin, a lawyer representing Hartheimer, told CNBC on Saturday that Evolve has fired the CEO.

“Bob’s family is aware of the charges,” Ballin wrote in an email. “His family loves and supports him and requests privacy during this difficult period in their lives. We have no further comment at this time.”

The Wall Street Journal reported on Hartheimer’s firing from Evolve Bank on Friday. The bank did not respond to a request for comment from CNBC.

Last year, Evolve was caught up in the bankruptcy of financial technology startup Synapse, which cut off access to a system for handling transactions and account details. Fintech apps such as Yotta worked with Evolve and other banks, with Synapse acting as a middleman.

Synapse’s method of keeping app users’ money in various banks, including Evolve, created accounting problems, and up to $96 million in deposits went missing. Thousands of Americans lost money, CNBC reported.

In 2024, Evolve also suffered a cyberattack, during which hackers obtained customer information and demanded a ransom. The bank said it did not pay any ransom and the data was eventually posted online.

In August, Evolve, founded in 1925, named Hartheimer to replace CEO Scott Stafford, who retired after joining the bank in 2004.

“This is a structural change, demonstrating our continued commitment to doing the hard work to earn back the trust of our customers, employees, regulators, and investors,” Evolve said.

When he was hired, the bank touted Hartheimer’s experience as director of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation’s Division of Resolutions, as well as his years as a regulatory consultant for fintech companies.

“Over the past four decades, I’ve led, turned around, and advised institutions across the financial landscape,” Hartheimer wrote on his LinkedIn profile

The bank reported net losses for each of the first three quarters of 2025 after being profitable since 2003, according to data on file with the Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council.

CNBC’s Dan Mangan and Hugh Son contributed reporting.

Disclosure: Comcast is the parent company of NBCUniversal, which owns CNBC. Versant would become the new parent company of CNBC upon Comcast’s planned spinoff of Versant.

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Where the Nexperia auto chip crisis stands now as the U.S., China and EU race to contain fallout

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Where the Nexperia auto chip crisis stands now as the U.S., China and EU race to contain fallout

The logo of Chinese-owned semiconductor company Nexperia is displayed at the chipmaker’s German facility, after the Dutch government seized control and auto industry bodies sounded the alarm over the possible impact on car production, in Hamburg, Germany, Oct. 23, 2025.

Jonas Walzberg | Reuters

Netherlands-based chipmaker Nexperia is at the heart of a standoff between the European Union, the U.S. and China that has triggered a near-crisis for global automakers.

The Dutch government seized control of Nexperia, owned by the Chinese company Wingtech, in October, citing national security concerns. The move prompted Beijing to block Nexperia products from leaving China.

Meetings are underway in Europe Saturday to attempt to defuse the escalating issue, and Chinese and U.S. authorities appear to be opening up a pathway for Nexperia’s China-based operations to resume exporting critical automotive chips.

Spokespeople for the White House and Nexperia did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

For now, however, the auto industry’s supply chain still hangs in the balance.

The dispute is threatening vehicle production worldwide as automakers warn of looming shortages of the chipmaker’s components, which are critical to basic electrical functions in cars and challenging to replace on short notice.

The battle has unfolded amid heightened scrutiny of Chinese-linked tech firms from Western governments, including the U.S., which recently tightened export-control rules to limit technology transfers to Chinese-owned entities.

Nexperia’s owner, Wingtech, was put on a U.S. blacklist in December 2024 for its alleged role “in aiding China’s government’s efforts to acquire entities with sensitive semiconductor manufacturing capability.”

Here’s what to know about where the dispute stands, and why it matters. 

Why are Nexperia chips so important?

What happened and where do things stand?

In September, the Dutch government invoked a Cold War-era law to effectively take control of Nexperia, amid concerns that its Chinese owner was planning to shift intellectual property to another company it owned. A Dutch court also suspended Nexperia CEO, Wingtech founder Zhang Xuezhen, citing mismanagement.

Beijing retaliated weeks later by imposing export controls on certain Nexperia products made in China, escalating tensions and fueling fears of a broader supply chain shock. That prompted the company to tell carmakers it could no longer guarantee supplies.

But signs of a breakthrough have started to emerge.

On Friday, reports said the U.S. plans to announce that Nexperia will resume sending chips under a framework agreement reached during talks between President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping, citing sources familiar with the matter. And on Saturday, China said it will exempt some Nexperia chips from its export ban. Chinese officials did not specify what those exemptions could entail.

“We will comprehensively consider the actual situation of the enterprise and exempt eligible exports,” The Chinese Commerce Ministry said in a statement. 

If finalized, the exemptions could ease immediate pressure on automakers. But the broader dispute over ownership, technology control and security oversight remains unresolved.

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While AI spending is top of mind, online ads are driving a lot of Big Tech’s growth

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While AI spending is top of mind, online ads are driving a lot of Big Tech's growth

META CEO Mark Zuckerberg (L) and Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella.

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As tech giants increase their already breathtaking spending on artificial intelligence, their respective digital advertising businesses have also gained momentum.

Quarterly earnings reports this week from Meta, Amazon, Alphabet and Microsoft all showed healthy revenue on the ads front.

The rising online advertising sales have allayed concerns earlier this year that economic turbulence, amplified by President Donald Trump‘s trade policies, would negatively impact ad budgets.  

“I think the digital ad market is strong,” said Jasmine Enberg, co-founder of Scalable, a creator economy media firm. “I think this economic instability and volatility is kind of priced in for a lot of people at this point; sort of seems to be the status quo.”

Meta topped its rivals for the quarter with the fastest ad-related sales growth.

The company’s total third-quarter revenue, of which 98% is derived from online ads, jumped 26% year-over-year to $51.24 billion, the company’s highest sales since the first quarter of 2024.

Revenue in Amazon’s online ad unit soared 24% year-over-year to $17.7 billion, representing a faster growth rate than the company’s AWS cloud computing unit, which saw sales rise 20%.

CEO Andy Jassy highlighted on Amazon’s earnings call that the company is continuing to expand its ad-specific demand-side platform to more third-party apps and sites.

“You look at some of the partnerships that we’ve done, the Roku partnership gives us the largest connected TV footprint in the U.S.,” Jassy said. “And you layer on top of that what we’ve recently done in providing our DSP customers the opportunity to integrate with the ad inventory in Netflix and Spotify and SiriusXM, it’s powerful.”

Andy Jassy, chief executive officer of Amazon.com Inc., speaks during an unveiling event in New York, US, on Wednesday, Feb. 26, 2025.

Michael Nagle | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Alphabet’s overall advertising sales for the third quarter came in at $74.18 billion, a 13% increase from $65.85 billion a year ago. Third-quarter online ad sales for YouTube rose 15% to $10.26 billion.

Microsoft’s search and news advertising unit brought in $3.7 billion in the company’s fiscal first quarter, a 14% increase from the $3.2 billion it recorded the previous year.

Even if there’s been some pullback in ad budgets due to economic uncertainty, it’s likely that companies shifted some of that spending from traditional businesses like newspapers to digital ad platforms, said Jeremy Goldman, senior director of content at Emarketer.  

“I think what could be happening is more of a no-brainer,” Goldman said. “To put your money in social, and to put your money in retail media and to put your money in search ad spending.”

It wasn’t just the megacaps that showed hefty online ad growth this week.

Reddit on Thursday reported a 68% jump in third-quarter sales, soaring past analyst estimates. The company said global daily active uniques grew 19% year-over-year to 116 million, surpassing estimates of 114 million.

Snap and Pinterest are scheduled to report results next week.

Going big on AI

The tech giants all made clear that they don’t see any broader economic concerns that would warrant a reduction in their AI spending, and instead lifted their guidance for capital expenditures, despite concerns of a bubble.

Alphabet, Meta, Amazon and Microsoft collectively expect capex spending above $380 billion this year, which is still a fraction of the $1 trillion worth of data center and cloud computing deals that OpenAI has recently announced with its partners like Nvidia, Oracle and Broadcom.

But while investors cheered Amazon and Google, they were less thrilled with Microsoft, and especially Meta.

The Facebook parent’s stock tanked 11% on Thursday after the company said it would raise the low end of its capex guidance to between $70 billion and $72 billion from the prior range of $66 billion to $72 billion.

Oppenheimer analysts downgraded Meta stock to the equivalent of a hold from buy, because they said it’s less obvious how the social media company will benefit from its AI investments relative to its big tech rivals that also operate cloud computing services.

“Significant investment in Superintelligence despite unknown revenue opportunity mirrors 2021/2022 Metaverse spending,” the Oppenheimer analysts wrote, contrasting the company’s big AI spending related to its Superintelligence Labs to its money-losing Reality Labs division, which makes virtual reality and augmented reality technologies.

Wall Street backs AI winners, and Meta’s not one of them this quarter

Susan Li, Meta’s finance chief, said Wednesday during a follow-up earnings call that it’s important for the company to invest in AI-related data center and third-party cloud computing services or risk falling behind, echoing similar comments made by CEO Mark Zuckerberg.

“The highest priority for the company is investing our resources to position ourselves as a leader in AI,” Li said. “That means that I think for the immediate period of time ahead of us, we could see some financial pressure during which our operating profit could be lumpy.”

Meta has continued to point to how its AI investments are improving its online advertising business, but it’s having a more difficult time showing how that spending will benefit the company in the future, Enberg said.

“I think part of that is that we’ve heard the story now quarter after quarter that it is able to integrate AI into its ad business and use that as a growth engine,” Enberg said.  “What comes next is harder to articulate, and far less tangible for investors and other people who follow the space.”

Still, Meta is experiencing some growth in new products like the Meta AI app that contains the Vibes AI-powered short video service, Goldman said.

The company can also still expand more into subscriptions or even potentially offer enterprise AI services to sell to corporations, which is “an area that they haven’t played at all,” he said.

For now, Meta’s digital advertising unit remains its core business, and just like previous quarters, it’s unclear how the economy will impact ad budgets.

With the holiday season approaching, all eyes will be focused on whether the lingering economic concerns or tariff-related price hikes lead to consumers curbing their spending, which could impact corporate marketing campaigns.  

“The next test will be when we get to the Black Friday numbers,” Goldman said. “Are those going to be below expectations?”

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Big tech earnings tell you 'these are the companies you want to own': Tech investor

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