Smoke billows after Ukraine’s SBU drone strikes a refinery, amid Russia’s attack on Ukraine, in Ryazan, Ryazan Region, Russia, in this screen grab from a video obtained by Reuters, March 13, 2024.
Video Obtained By Reuters | Via Reuters
Ukraine’s campaign of attacks against Russian oil refineries is demonstrating how relatively cheap drones that utilize artificial intelligence could pose a major threat to global energy markets.
Ukraine-launched drones have hit 18 Russian oil refineries this year with a combined capacity of 3.9 million barrels per day, according to report published by JPMorgan earlier this month. Some 670,000 bpd of Russian refining capacity is currently offline due to the strikes, according to the bank.
Ukraine’s capabilities are growing with its drones now demonstrating a substantially longer range. Earlier this month, Kyiv hit Russia’s third-largest oil refinery, Taneco, which is located up to 1,300 kilometers — roughly 800 miles — from the frontlines, according to JPMorgan.
Ukraine is increasingly using drones that are enabled with AI, which helps the weapons navigate and avoid jamming, according to the bank.
“The AI guidance also delivers strike precision, maximizing the impact of the strikes by targeting specific areas like distillation towers, repairs of which requires Western technology,” Natasha Kaneva, head of global commodities strategy at JPMorgan, told clients in the April report. “This makes the repairs costly and often require equipment that the country is not able to produce.”
U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin made clear Tuesday that the Biden administration is worried about the strikes in a rare airing of public disagreement with U.S. allies in Kyiv.
“Certainly, those attacks could have a knock-on effect in terms of the global energy situation,” Austin told the Senate Armed Services Committee. “Quite frankly, I think Ukraine is better served in going after tactical and operational targets that can directly influence the current fight.”
The U.S. has urged Ukraine to stop the attacks on Russian energy infrastructure out of concern that they could drive up crude oil prices and instigate retaliation from Moscow, three people familiar with the discussions told the Financial Times last month.
The losses to Russian refining capacity could worsen as Ukraine aims to build a full-fledge drone industry and produce a million units domestically this year, according to the JPMorgan report. If Kyiv is able to extend the drones’ range to 1,500 kilometers (about 932 miles), they could potentially hit 21 refineries with more than 4.4 million bpd of refined capacity, according to the report.
“There’s room for this to become a bigger problem, because we’ve come to count on Russian supply getting to the global market, which allows other non-Russian supply to go to other places,” said John Kilduff, an energy expert and founding partner at Again Capital.
The deployment of AI drones also has broader implications for global energy markets, according to Bob Brackett, a senior research analyst at Bernstein. The drones are cheap to produce compared to the millions of dollars in damage they can cause and could empower nonstate actors to challenge superior fighting forces, Brackett told clients in Friday note.
“These drones can easily and asymmetrically disrupt global seaborne trade,” Brackett wrote, warning that oil exporters such as Russia aren’t the only countries that need to be worried. Oil importers, like China and India, will now have to worry about disruptions to crude flows from drone attacks, he said.
Impact on oil, gasoline prices
Ukraine’s campaign of drone strikes comes at the same time as tensions are running red hot in the Middle East, with OPEC member Iran and Israel now teetering on the brink of a direct confrontation.
U.S. crude oil has rallied nearly 20% this year, while the global benchmark Brent has gained 17% as the wars in Middle East and Eastern Europe rage against the backdrop of rising crude demand and tightening supply. Gasoline futures have surged about 33% since the year began.
Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy, said the drone strikes are not a major issue for oil prices right now because the attacks on refineries are primarily affecting Russia’s production of diesel at a time when the market is already glutted.
But Russia is also major exporter of a gasoline feedstock called naphtha. If naphta markets were to tighten because of the attacks it could have an impact on gas prices and balances, said McNally, who served as a senior energy official in the George W. Bush administration.
Goldman Sachs said in a research note last month that the strikes are bullish for diesel prices, but the impact on crude oil is mixed. Outages can lead to reduced oil demand from refineries, which is bearish for prices. But the market is worried Ukraine could increasingly hit oil production and transportation infrastructure, which would weigh on Russian crude exports, according to Goldman.
Bart Melek, head of commodity strategy at TD Securities, said the current strikes could have an indirect effect on oil markets. As Russian fuel exports decline due to the attacks, countries that rely on those exports then need to source fuel from refineries in other jurisdictions, Melek said. Those refiners need more crude to meet the demand which can stress oil supplies, he said.
Russian production already poses a problem for the Biden administration. Moscow has pledged to cut its oil output and exports by an additional 471,000 barrels per day in the second quarter to meet its commitments to OPEC+.
Those cuts could push the price of Brent crude to $100 by September, which will put pressure on the Biden administration just before the presidential election, according to a JPMorgan report last month.
The investment bank expects U.S. gas prices to hit $4 per gallon by May, the highest level since the summer of 2022.
“There are few issues that terrify a sitting American president in an election year more than surging gasoline prices,” said Rapidan’s McNally.
(From left) CNBC’s Steve Sedgwick moderates an IoT panel with Cenk Alper, CEO of Sabanci Holding, Christina Shim, chief sustainability officer of IBM, and Mitesh Patel, interim CEO and COO of SunCable International, at CONVERGE LIVE on March 13, 2025.
Renewable energy companies can shorten the long approval process needed for their projects by communicating better with stakeholders, according to experts.
Christina Shim, IBM’s chief sustainability officer, said sponsors need to focus on the business value — in addition to the environmental benefits — when discussing their projects.
“That being said … there are some triggering words now, depending on where you sit around the world, and I think the more that you can quantify business value for what you’re doing and tie it to, again, the business operations and business decision making, it’s only going to be more and more important,” Shim said Thursday.
“As long as the outcomes are the same, you just need to make sure that you’re communicating in an appropriate way with the right stakeholders.”
She compared it to how one might talk to a CFO, versus an investor, versus someone in procurement. “You kind of have to talk about things a little bit differently.”
Mitesh Patel, interim CEO and COO at SunCable International, agrees that adjusting communication for the right audience is crucial.
“For politicians, the voters are their constituency, not your project or not your company. You have to help them translate what benefits your project will bring to the constituents,” said Patel, whose company is developing a project to deliver solar energy from Australia to Singapore via undersea cables.
The comments by Shim and Patel, who were speaking to CNBC’s Steve Sedgwick on a panel in Singapore, come as renewable energy projects often take many years to get off the ground.
A report from the Global Infrastructure hub, which is part of the World Bank’s Public-Private Infrastructure Advisory Facility, noted the complex nature of preparation needed before an infrastructure project gets underway. It put the average project preparation time at 6 years but said it can take up to 14 years if the project is not planned properly.
Cenk Alper, CEO of Sabanci Holding, a Turkish conglomerate, said the biggest obstacle to getting renewable energy projects off the ground is often regulatory.
“The biggest problem is still government — the permits. Because from licensing to making a project ready, the total time is longer than the construction time,” he said.
The situation in Europe is worse, he added, citing a project where connecting to the grid took two years.
Alper said Western countries need to streamline the approval process for renewable energy projects, noting China has embarked on more projects in the last five years than the rest of the world combined.
Volkswagen ID.4 production at Chattanooga, TN (Source: VW)
A new study from the REPEAT Project led by Princeton University’s ZERO Lab warns that the repeal of Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) tax credits could decimate the growing EV manufacturing sector.
The report “Potential Impacts of Electric Vehicle Tax Credit Repeal on US Vehicle Market and Manufacturing” clearly outlines the risks. The Princeton study states that repealing the IRA federal tax credits and the EPA’s clean vehicle regulations would sharply reduce EV demand.
Specifically, EV sales could drop around 30% by 2027 and nearly 40% by 2030 compared to sticking with the policies implemented by the Biden administration. That means the share of EVs among new cars sold would shrink dramatically – from about 18% to 13% by 2026 and from 40% to just 24% by 2030.
“While no one has a perfect crystal ball, this is our best attempt to survey available quantitative forecasts and develop an outlook on US EV sales,” explained the study’s project leader, Jesse D. Jenkins, assistant professor at Princeton’s Department of Mechanical & Aerospace Engineering and Andlinger Center for Energy & Environment in an email. “The report is also the only analysis I’m aware of to date that draws the connection to US manufacturing as well.”
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Here’s why this matters: The report points out that repealing these policies wouldn’t just slow down EV adoption – it could seriously derail the US manufacturing renaissance now underway. Up to 100% of planned expansions for EV assembly plants could be canceled or shuttered. Battery manufacturing would also take a huge hit, with between 29% and 72% of battery cell production capacity becoming redundant by 2025. That means factories under construction or those just coming online would be at risk.
To put that into perspective, an Environmental Defense Fund report released in January found that $197.6 billion worth of investments in EV and battery manufacturing have been announced at 208 facilities around the US, with two-thirds announced since the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act in August 2022.
It’s probably a good time to point out that, in order to qualify for IRA federal tax credits, EVs must be domestically assembled, use battery components that have been substantially domestically produced, and use critical minerals produced, processed, or recycled in North America or free trade agreement countries.
Why, then, is the Trump administration torpedoing an industry that’s achieving the very thing it says it wants to achieve, which is to boost domestic manufacturing and jobs?
And let’s not forget the broader EV supply chain – materials, parts, and component suppliers across the country would also suffer, though these effects haven’t even been fully quantified yet.
Bottom line: Repealing the tax credits and regulations wouldn’t just slow down EV sales – it would threaten the jobs, investments, and communities counting on America’s EV manufacturing boom.
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The Optiq, Cadillac’s most affordable EV, just got a price cut. Despite being on the market for less than two months, GM cut lease prices by nearly $100 a month. Here’s how you can snag the deal.
GM cuts lease prices on Cadillac’s most affordable EV
Compared to Cadillac’s other electric vehicles, like the Escalade IQL, which starts at over $130,000, and the Vistiq, which has a price tag of over $77,000, the Optiq already looks like a steal at about $55,000.
Cadillac’s electric SUV arrived in January with lease prices starting at $489 per month. Although this was already its cheapest SUV (gas or EV), GM is making it even more affordable this month.
The 2025 Cadillac Lyriq is now listed at just $399 for 24 months with $4,929 due at signing. In less than two months, the OPTIQ’s lease prices have fallen by $90, or almost 20%. The deal is for the 2025 Cadillac Optiq AWD Luxury 1 with an MSRP of $54,390.
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Cadillac’s lease deal runs through March 31. However, there are a few limitations you should know about. The deal includes a $2,000 loyalty or conquest offer.
Cadillac Optiq EV lease deal (Source: Cadillac)
The fine print states you must be a lessee of a 2020 model year or newer non-GM vehicle for at least 30 days. According to online car research firm CarsDirect, this extends to 2011 and newer electric vehicles from a competitor brands such as Tesla, Rivian, Porsche, BMW, Ford, and Honda, among several others.
At 190″ long, 75″ wide, and 65″ tall, the Cadillac Optiq is about the same size as the Tesla Model Y (187″ long x 76″ wide x 64″ tall).
Powered by an 85 kWh battery pack, the electric SUV has a driving range of up to 302 miles. With 150 kW DC fast charging, the Optiq can gain up to 79 miles of range in about 10 minutes.
2025 Cadillac Optiq trim
Starting Price (including destination)
Driving Range (EPA-estimated)
Luxury 1
$54,390
302 miles
Luxury 2
$56,590
302 miles
Sport 1
$54,990
302 miles
Sport 2
$57,090
302 miles
2025 Cadillac Optiq price and range by trim
Inside, the Optiq features a massive 33″ infotainment and “segment-leading” cargo (57 cubic feet) and second-row space.
GM has been introducing new deals on new EV models all year. Chevy’s new Equinox, Blazer, and Silverado EVs are all available with 0% APR with leases starting as low as $299 per month.
Ready to take advantage of the savings? We can help you get started. Check out our links below to find deals on GM’s most popular EVs in your area.
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