Ukraine’s attacks on Russian oil refineries shows the growing threat AI drones pose to energy markets

Published

1 year ago

April 14, 2024

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Smoke billows after Ukraine’s SBU drone strikes a refinery, amid Russia’s attack on Ukraine, in Ryazan, Ryazan Region, Russia, in this screen grab from a video obtained by Reuters, March 13, 2024.

Video Obtained By Reuters | Via Reuters

Ukraine’s campaign of attacks against Russian oil refineries is demonstrating how relatively cheap drones that utilize artificial intelligence could pose a major threat to global energy markets.

Ukraine-launched drones have hit 18 Russian oil refineries this year with a combined capacity of 3.9 million barrels per day, according to report published by JPMorgan earlier this month. Some 670,000 bpd of Russian refining capacity is currently offline due to the strikes, according to the bank.

Ukraine’s capabilities are growing with its drones now demonstrating a substantially longer range. Earlier this month, Kyiv hit Russia’s third-largest oil refinery, Taneco, which is located up to 1,300 kilometers — roughly 800 miles — from the frontlines, according to JPMorgan.

Ukraine is increasingly using drones that are enabled with AI, which helps the weapons navigate and avoid jamming, according to the bank.

“The AI guidance also delivers strike precision, maximizing the impact of the strikes by targeting specific areas like distillation towers, repairs of which requires Western technology,” Natasha Kaneva, head of global commodities strategy at JPMorgan, told clients in the April report. “This makes the repairs costly and often require equipment that the country is not able to produce.”

U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin made clear Tuesday that the Biden administration is worried about the strikes in a rare airing of public disagreement with U.S. allies in Kyiv.

“Certainly, those attacks could have a knock-on effect in terms of the global energy situation,” Austin told the Senate Armed Services Committee. “Quite frankly, I think Ukraine is better served in going after tactical and operational targets that can directly influence the current fight.”

The U.S. has urged Ukraine to stop the attacks on Russian energy infrastructure out of concern that they could drive up crude oil prices and instigate retaliation from Moscow, three people familiar with the discussions told the Financial Times last month.

The losses to Russian refining capacity could worsen as Ukraine aims to build a full-fledge drone industry and produce a million units domestically this year, according to the JPMorgan report. If Kyiv is able to extend the drones’ range to 1,500 kilometers (about 932 miles), they could potentially hit 21 refineries with more than 4.4 million bpd of refined capacity, according to the report.

“There’s room for this to become a bigger problem, because we’ve come to count on Russian supply getting to the global market, which allows other non-Russian supply to go to other places,” said John Kilduff, an energy expert and founding partner at Again Capital.

The deployment of AI drones also has broader implications for global energy markets, according to Bob Brackett, a senior research analyst at Bernstein. The drones are cheap to produce compared to the millions of dollars in damage they can cause and could empower nonstate actors to challenge superior fighting forces, Brackett told clients in Friday note.

“These drones can easily and asymmetrically disrupt global seaborne trade,” Brackett wrote, warning that oil exporters such as Russia aren’t the only countries that need to be worried. Oil importers, like China and India, will now have to worry about disruptions to crude flows from drone attacks, he said.

Impact on oil, gasoline prices

Ukraine’s campaign of drone strikes comes at the same time as tensions are running red hot in the Middle East, with OPEC member Iran and Israel now teetering on the brink of a direct confrontation.

U.S. crude oil has rallied nearly 20% this year, while the global benchmark Brent has gained 17% as the wars in Middle East and Eastern Europe rage against the backdrop of rising crude demand and tightening supply. Gasoline futures have surged about 33% since the year began.

Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy, said the drone strikes are not a major issue for oil prices right now because the attacks on refineries are primarily affecting Russia’s production of diesel at a time when the market is already glutted.

But Russia is also major exporter of a gasoline feedstock called naphtha. If naphta markets were to tighten because of the attacks it could have an impact on gas prices and balances, said McNally, who served as a senior energy official in the George W. Bush administration.

Goldman Sachs said in a research note last month that the strikes are bullish for diesel prices, but the impact on crude oil is mixed. Outages can lead to reduced oil demand from refineries, which is bearish for prices. But the market is worried Ukraine could increasingly hit oil production and transportation infrastructure, which would weigh on Russian crude exports, according to Goldman.

Bart Melek, head of commodity strategy at TD Securities, said the current strikes could have an indirect effect on oil markets. As Russian fuel exports decline due to the attacks, countries that rely on those exports then need to source fuel from refineries in other jurisdictions, Melek said. Those refiners need more crude to meet the demand which can stress oil supplies, he said.

Russian production already poses a problem for the Biden administration. Moscow has pledged to cut its oil output and exports by an additional 471,000 barrels per day in the second quarter to meet its commitments to OPEC+.

Those cuts could push the price of Brent crude to $100 by September, which will put pressure on the Biden administration just before the presidential election, according to a JPMorgan report last month.

The investment bank expects U.S. gas prices to hit $4 per gallon by May, the highest level since the summer of 2022.

“There are few issues that terrify a sitting American president in an election year more than surging gasoline prices,” said Rapidan’s McNally.

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Environment

Linfox adds 30 fully electric semi trucks to Australian logistics fleet

Published

2 hours ago

May 18, 2025

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Linfox adds 30 fully electric semi trucks to Australian logistics fleet

Volvo receives order for 30 electric trucks in Australia and announces production start of electric trucks

Australian logistics company Linfox is making big moves to electrify its heavy-duty semi fleet with the addition of thirty new Volvo FH and FM Electric semi trucks as the Swedish brand works to begin production at its Brisbane facility.

Volvo Trucks is expecting to begin full scale production of its FH and FM Electric semi trucks at the Brisbane factory in early 2026, just in time to fill the Linfox order – which happens to be the company’s largest in Australia. So far.

“We are very proud to continue our close partnership with Linfox. The order for 30 Volvo electric trucks is proof of their trust in our company and in zero-emissions transport as a viable solution here and now,” said Roger Alm, President Volvo Trucks. “Our commitment to start building electric trucks in Australia demonstrates our confidence in this technology, and means we can offer an industry-leading range of purpose-built electric trucks all around the world.”

With the production kickoff of electric trucks in Australia, it means Volvo Trucks is building its big HDEVs and prime movers in five countries on three continents. Which, as the company’s electric fleet approaches the 100 millionth mile logged mark, probably means they’re pulling well ahead of some of the other guys.

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“Linfox is excited to partner with Volvo in driving the future and leading sustainable logistics in Australia,” explains Peter Fox AM (Member of the Order of Australia), Executive Chairman of Linfox. “Further electrifying our fleet sets the standard for us and our customers and the entire industry.”

Linfox’ latest order includes 29 Volvo FH Electric and one FM Electric semi. The company currently has four electric Volvo trucks in its fleet of 195 semis, with plans to continue to electrify as ICE-powered assets reach retirement.

Electrek’s Take

Linfox Volvo semi fleet; via Volvo Trucks.

Now counting miles in operation in the tens of millions and rolling out its third generation of electric semi trucks, Volvo (and, by extension, Mack and Renault) continue to build a huge lead in the commercial trucking space. The competition, meanwhile, seems content to post pictures of its first factory while trucks that have been on order for years still haven’t reached customers.

I can’t see how they (Tesla) catch up from here.

SOURCE | IMAGES: Volvo Trucks.

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Environment

BYD Ride electrifies Oakland Int’l Airport shuttle bus fleet

Published

3 hours ago

May 18, 2025

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BYD Ride electrifies Oakland Int'l Airport shuttle bus fleet

Oakland Airport Electrifies Its Fleet with RIDE Battery-Electric Buses

Oakland International Airport (OAK) in Alameda, California is helping stressed-out air passengers breathe a little bit easier with the introduction of five new battery-electric K9MD shuttle buses to its ground equipment fleet.

Global EV leaders BYD aren’t coming to America – the Chinese brand is already here. The company has been building EVs in its $250 million, 106,000 square foot production facility in Lancaster, California since 2014, delivering hundreds of battery-electric buses to fleets across the world. With this order of five new K9MD buses, OAK becomes the latest airport to turn to BYD Ride to help electrify its ground operations.

“We applaud Oakland Airport and their commitment to electrifying its fleet,” said Jason Yan, Vice President of Sales, West Region and National Account at Ride. “[BYD] Ride is thrilled to partner with OAK to offer sustainable transportation solutions that benefit both the environment and the community.”

The K9MD buses seat up to 42 passengers and have a 208 mile operating range from a 352 kWh lithium iron phosphate battery. That battery is backed by a 12-year warranty to help keep fiscally conservative fleet buyers at ease, while the smooth, quiet, and electric drive keeps the fleet’s operators happy, too.

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Oakland International Airport is operated by the Port of Oakland, and is scheduled to electrify its entire ground operations fleet by 2030.

Electrek’s Take

The people live and work near airports are exposed to more emissions than most – and that includes kids, the elderly … even their pets. Electrifying the assets that operate in those spaces pays huge and immediate dividends in terms of the public health of some of the most vulnerable populations.

It’s as good a place as any to start. Let’s go.

SOURCE | IMAGES: BYD.

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Environment

Trump meme coin dinner likely to include mostly non-Americans based on top $TRUMP holders

Published

4 hours ago

May 18, 2025

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Trump meme coin dinner likely to include mostly non-Americans based on top $TRUMP holders

Jonathan Raa | Nurphoto | Getty Images

With President Donald Trump’s private dinner for top meme coin holders less than a week away, the leaderboard is awash with crypto wallets that are effectively anonymous.

On May 22, the top 220 $TRUMP holders are invited to a dinner with the president at his Virginia golf club outside of Washington, D.C. The event was announced last month, and the tally closed Monday night.

The nature of the pseudonymous wallets raises questions about the true identities and motivations of the token’s largest holders, who have bought a seat at the table with a U.S. president.

Documents from blockchain analytics firm Inca Digital that were reviewed by CNBC show where the top 275 $TRUMP token holders send and receive the token. Many are heavily tied to international exchanges like Binance that don’t service U.S. customers, an indication that they’re likely not U.S. citizens.

An analysis by Bloomberg revealed that 19 of the top 25 wallets are almost certainly owned by individuals operating outside the U.S.

Justin Sun, who openly shared that he bought $75 million worth of the Trump family’s World Liberty Financial token — a digital coin where 75% of proceeds go to Trump-related entities — is believed to be at the top of the $TRUMP meme token leaderboard.

Sun, who was born in China, is the crypto entrepreneur behind the Tron blockchain and is in talks with the SEC to resolve civil fraud charges.

A wallet called Sun currently holds more than $18 million worth of $TRUMP, with $4.5 million bought after the dinner contest announcement, according to Bloomberg.

Multiple reports point to the wallet being tied to the Tron founder. A representative for Sun didn’t respond to CNBC’s request for comment or confirm whether Sun is the wallet owner.

MemeCore, a Singapore-based crypto network that was vocal in its quest to secure a spot at the Trump dinner, landed in second place with an investment of $18 million. An Australian crypto entrepreneur also reportedly made the cut.

The leaderboard points to the token’s extreme volatility.

Inca Digital told CNBC that while 560,376 wallets have made a combined $5.2 billion in realized gains on the $TRUMP token, an even larger number — 592,962 wallets — have collectively lost $3.9 billion.

The figures underscore the massive wealth transfer within Trump’s crypto ecosystem, where early buyers have seen windfalls while the majority have suffered losses.

Chainalysis and Elliptic, two leading blockchain analytics firms, initially tracked $TRUMP token movements and trading fees. But days after CNBC published a story on the number of crypto wallets that had lost money on the meme coin, the firms said they were too busy with existing clients to continue blockchain analysis of the president’s self-branded meme token.

Eric Trump on taking American Bitcoin public and the family’s growing crypto empire

Sen. Richard Blumenthal, D-Conn., the ranking member of the Senate Subcommittee on Investigations, warned that the Trump family’s growing crypto holdings may serve as a backdoor for foreign and corporate interests seeking access to the president.

Freight Technologies, a Houston-based logistics firm that trades on the Nasdaq and has a market cap of just over $2.3 million, bought $2 million worth of the $TRUMP tokens to influence U.S.-Mexico trade policy, according to a release. CEO Javier Selgas described the move as a strategic push to “champion fair and free trade” across the U.S.-Mexico border.

Freight Technologies finished in 250th place, missing the cut for the dinner.