Dangerous moments in foreign affairs can bring a party together but Sunak faces his own domestic battles
MPs return to Westminster today after two weeks away, to the possibility of dangerous escalation in the Middle East.
But this is a week the prime minister will also need to avoid danger domestically if he is to see through some of the key policies on which his political survival depends.
One is the legislation to declare Rwanda a safe country, which Downing Street expects will finally receive royal assent this week.
It holds the prospect of finally sending some failed asylum seekers on planes there, which the government have trumpeted as a deterrent to small boat crossings.
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‘Party of Winston Churchill wants to ban cigars’
Nearly two years since it was announced by Boris Johnson, many Tories remain sceptical that it can happen at all – there could be another intervention by the European Court of Human Rights which blocked it last time by issuing an interim injunction. Or that it can happen at a scale which would convince voters it has the potential to be a deterrent, and shift the dial politically.
But passing it would be a key moment for the prime minister and his allies, who still hold out hope – despite the polls – that the Conservatives can start to turn things around.
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The next test is the second reading – a vote on the principles – of the prime minister’s controversial smoking and vaping legislation.
Announced as the surprise centrepiece of last year’s party conference, it is essentially a ban on smoking for anyone over the age of 14 – by raising the smoke age by a year every year.
Several Conservatives have publicly questioned its workability and while it has Labour support and will pass; a sizeable rebellion of Tory MPs could spell danger for the prime minister’s authority.
This is a week of key economic news too, with CPI inflation figures on Wednesday predicted to show a further fall from 3.4% to as low as 3.1%; inching closer to the Bank of England’s target of 2%.
The Conservatives’ general election hopes hinge on the economic narrative. Before the March Budget, Rishi Sunak told a conference that voters were starting to see “the green shoots of recovery” and the economy had turned a corner. That’s what the Tories’ hopes hinge on.
But despite announcing cuts to national insurance for 27 million people, the Conservatives’ dire position in the polls has barely moved. A steady stream of Tory MPs are throwing in the towel.
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Sunak won’t give date for Rwanda flights
There are times when dangerous moments in foreign affairs rally a political party behind its leader at a tough time. But a group of discontented Tories are looking to the local elections on 2 May as a moment to move against Mr Sunak if he loses swathes of Conservative councillors, as is predicted.
That’s two weeks away, and this is a key week for showing that on small boats, the economy and his own priorities such as smoking, he can make some headway.
Developments in the Middle East could also swing the other way. Today the prime minister is likely to make a statement about the actions of UK forces in thwarting Iranian attacks.
But it could also pose difficult questions for him, including louder calls for more defence spending in the UK – now uniting a vocal group of Tories and Labour.
A planned settlement between the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission and crypto exchange KuCoin will likely be delayed after a policy shift at the CFTC to deprioritize cases against crypto companies under the Trump administration.
CFTC attorney John Murphy submitted a letter on April 21 to District Judge Valerie Caproni, asking for more time to secure approval for a deal negotiated under the Biden administration, reported Law360.
“It appears unlikely that such authorization will be granted in the near term,” he said, referencing a recent statement by acting CFTC Chair Caroline Pham that the agency’s enforcement division was to deprioritize cases against crypto companies.
The CFTC charged KuCoin with “multiple violations of the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) and CFTC regulations” in March 2024.
According to the Justice Department, which also filed charges against KuCoin and two founders for violating Anti-Money Laundering laws, the exchange received more than $5 billion and sent more than $4 billion in “suspicious and criminal funds.”
KuCoin, trading under Mek Global Limited, reached a $297 million settlement with the Department of Justice in January and agreed to exit the US market for at least two years.
In December, the CFTC and KuCoin informed the court that they reached an agreement in principle to settle the case, however terms and details of the proposed deal were not disclosed.
In March, KuCoin asked the judge for a 14-day stay to address further negotiations in line with President Trump’s executive order curtailing enforcement actions against the digital asset industry. However, this request was denied, with the judge pressing for negotiation status updates.
No majority at CFTC
When Pham announced in February that the Commission would wind down its practice of regulation by enforcement, she also noted that terminating active cases would be more difficult to deal with.
The CFTC needs a majority to dismiss a case or authorize its settlement, and there is currently no majority, with two members from each party sitting on its governing body.
This could change if the Senate confirms the appointment of Trump nominee Brian Quintenz to lead the financial regulator.
Both parties have requested an additional 60 days or until the Commission provides “definitive direction” on the matter.
Related: US regulators FDIC and CFTC ease crypto restrictions for banks, derivatives
On April 21, the CFTC’s Divisions of Market Oversight issued a request for comment to better inform them on the potential uses, benefits, and risks of perpetual contracts in derivatives markets.
“Innovation and new technology have created a renaissance in markets that presents new opportunities that are accessible to more people, as well as risks,” said Pham.
Magazine: Altcoin season to hit in Q2? Mantra’s plan to win trust: Hodler’s Digest
Politics
Starmer and Zelenskyy discuss ending Russia’s ‘brutal war’ – as Putin says says he is open to bilateral talks on longer ceasefire
Sir Keir Starmer and Volodymyr Zelenskyy spoke about ending Russia’s “brutal war” on Ukraine in their latest phone call on Easter Monday, as Vladimir Putin said he was open to bilateral talks.
The prime minister and Ukrainian president spoke on Monday afternoon, when Sir Keir “reiterated his iron-clad support for Ukraine“.
A Downing Street spokesperson added that the prime minister “said that the UK supports Ukraine’s calls for Russia to commit to a full ceasefire and that now is the time for Putin to show he is serious about ending his brutal war”.
“They discussed the latest developments on the Coalition of the Willing, and looked forward to further progress towards a just and lasting peace,” the spokesperson added.
Mr Zelenskyy later said on social media that he had a “good and detailed conversation” with the prime minister, and added Ukrainian officials will be in London for talks on ending the war with Russia on Wednesday.
“We are ready to move forward as constructively as possible, just as we have done before, to achieve an unconditional ceasefire, followed by the establishment of a real and lasting peace,” he added.
The Ukrainian president added that the 30-hour Easter truce, which both Kyiv and Moscow accuse the other of violating, showed that Russia “are prolonging the war”.
It comes as Mr Putin proposed bilateral talks with Ukraine on a longer ceasefire, which would mark the first time Russia held such talks since a failed peace deal soon after the invasion in 2022.
Speaking to a state TV reporter, the Russian president said: “We always have a positive attitude towards a truce, which is why we came up with such an initiative (the Easter truce), especially since we are talking about the bright Easter days.”
When asked about Mr Zelenskyy’s calls to extend the 30-hour ceasefire into a 30-day pause on civilian targets, he added: “This is all a subject for careful study, perhaps even bilaterally. We do not rule this out.”
The Ukrainian president said on Sunday evening that the Russian army had “violated Putin’s ceasefire more than 2,000 times” during the day, and accused Russia of “failing” to “uphold its own promise of a ceasefire”.
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From Saturday: Why Putin offered an Easter truce?
It also comes after Donald Trump has said he hopes Russia and Ukraine “will make a deal this week,” after he and his secretary of state Marco Rubio warned that the US will walk away from efforts to broker a peace deal unless there are clear signs of progress soon.
The US president said on his Truth Social platform that both countries would “start to do big business” with the US after ending the war.
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Last month, Ukraine accepted Mr Trump’s proposal for a 30-day truce, but Mr Putin refused to back a full 30-day ceasefire, saying crucial issues of verification had not been sorted out.
He then said he would agree not to target Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. However, both sides have accused each other of breaking the moratorium on attacks on energy targets and at sea.
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