A refinery from the north of the Persian Gulf in Iran.
Saeid Arabzadeh | Afp | Getty Images
Oil prices could soar to $100 per barrel and beyond, said market watchers, after Iran mounted an aerial attack against Israel reigniting fears of a regional war.
Iran is home to vast oil resources and is the third-largest producer in oil cartel OPEC. Any disruption in its capacity to supply global markets could send oil prices higher, analysts told CNBC. Markets will also closely monitor for developments or closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint which sits between Iran and Oman and through which one-fifth of global oil production flows daily.
“Any attack on oil production or export facilities in Iran would drive the price of Brent crude oil to $100, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz would lead to prices in the $120 to $130 range,” said Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates.
Insufficient investment makes supply more fragile and increases the chance of a super spike well above $100 if supply is disrupted.
Josh Young
portfolio manager at Bison Interests
Iran’s attack was in retaliation to an Israeli strike on its consulate in Damascus, Syria earlier this month. Iran accused Israel of bombing part of its embassy compound on April 1, killing seven Iranian military personnel, including three senior commanders.
Iran’s United Nations mission declared that following the aerial attack, the “matter can be deemed concluded.” It warned, however, that its response would be “considerably more severe” should there be further Israeli retaliation.
Compounded by underinvestment
Oil prices traded slightly lower in early morning trading in Asia. Global benchmark Brent slipped 0.31% to $90.17 a barrel Monday, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures fell 0.44% to trade at $85.28 per barrel.
Compounded by years of underinvestment in oil exploration and development, the recent geopolitical development renders global crude supplies more vulnerable, said Josh Young, portfolio manager at oil and gas investment firm Bison Interests.
“Insufficient investment makes supply more fragile and increases the chance of a super spike well above $100 if supply is disrupted,” he said.
Oil prices since the start of the year.
“I think oil prices will go to all time highs this cycle, due to a decade of under-investment in exploration and development,” Young added.
Oil faces a sizable natural decline in output. The decline rate for a conventional oil well is around 15%, absent any capital expenditure, according to Morgan Stanley’s estimates.
Oil prices have climbed in recent months on trade disruptions and delays caused by Red Sea maritime attacks from the Houthis, who claim solidarity with the Palestinian people.
Ramping up sanctions against Iran?
A dominant force in Middle East politics, Iran funds and supports groups opposing Israel, such as Palestinian militant group Hamas, Lebanon’s Hezbollah, Yemeni Houthis and Bashar al-Assad’s Syrian administration. The ongoing conflict in Gaza has often been referred to as a proxy war between Israel and Iran.
U.S. President Joe Biden condemned Iran’s attack on Israel, adding that Washington helped “take down nearly all of the incoming drones and missiles.”
“Our commitment to Israel’s security against threats from Iran and its proxies is ironclad,” Biden also said separately on social media platform X. But he also told Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that the U.S. will not participate in offensive operations against Iran, a senior administration official told NBC News.
If Iran further escalated hostilities, the U.S. and its allies would come under “renewed pressure to strengthen sanctions once again,” Betashares’ chief economist, David Bassanese, wrote in a note following the attack.
Iranian oil exports have lifted over the past few years with the U.S. “seemingly passively accepting this as a means to keep downward pressure on world oil prices,” he added.
A new report states that Tesla will pause part of new Model Y production at Gigafactory Shanghai for 3 weeks to upgrade the lines.
The shutdown will extend beyond the regular Chinese New Year.
The Chinese New Year is technically 2 weeks long, but the official holiday lasts a week, during which significant parts of the country’s industries shut down.
That includes the auto industry and Tesla, but it looks like the American automaker plans to do things a bit differently this year after having just started production of its updated Model Y at Gigafactory Shanghai.
According to a new report from Bloomberg, Tesla plans to shut down part of its new Model Y production lines from around January 22 to February 14.
In comparison, Tesla only plans to shut down production of the Model 3, the only other vehicle produced at the plant, from January 26 to February 3.
Tesla only recently started production of the updated version of its best-selling electric SUV. The report states that the automaker will take advantage of this extended Lunar New Year shutdown to upgrade parts of the production lines in order to streamline and ramp up production capacity.
The automaker delivered about 480,000 Model Ys in China in 2024 – up about 5% year-over-year.
It makes sense. Over the last few weeks, Tesla has basically been running a pilot of production of the upgraded version, which is entirely different from the previous version, but there are enough differences that new parts and processes can create bottlenecks.
Tesla likely found ways to optimize production during that time and now will implement it during this extended shutdown.
We will try to keep track of the Model Y production and rollout in China as any delay or production issues can be extremely impactful, considering the Model Y is the world’s best-selling EV and China is the biggest EV market.
Any kind of issue there can be extremely impactful on Tesla and the broader EV market.
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American Honda shared a business outlook for 2025 during a recent briefing with the media. In terms of electrification, the next 12 months for Honda will be much of the same: facelifting tried-and-true ICE models like the CR-V and Passport. However, there was one exciting piece of news from Honda on the BEV front—the automaker has confirmed it will begin US production of an Acura RSX EV.
Honda and its premium sub-brand Acura, for that matter, are getting more and more coverage on Electrek’s homepage thanks to the combined efforts in adding new BEV models… although that transition has still been relatively slow compared to other OEMs.
Nevertheless, Honda launched the all-electric Prologue, which has found quick success with US consumers. Shortly thereafter, Acura launched the ZDX, which sits atop the same Ultium platform as Prologue, provided through a partnership with GM.
Honda has since backed out of that partnership—at least the part where GM provides vehicle architecture—and has been developing its own in-house platform that will one day power its new 0 Series lineup of BEVs. These originally debuted at CES 2024 and remerged at this year’s event as prototypes—and now they’re white! They will also feature a new proprietary vehicle OS called ASIMO (more on that below).
While we await the arrival of those Honda BEVs, we can expect to see a new Acura model hit the market first, based on an SUV called the Performance EV Concept, which debuted at Monterey Car Week this past August. At the time, the Acura Design Studio described the concept as “the evolution of Acura’s performance-focused design direction and the brand’s next all-electric model.”
That new production model didn’t have a name yet, but we did learn it would be the first BEV to debut on Honda’s new bespoke platform and the first all-electric model to roll off its assembly lines at the new Honda EV Hub in Marysville, Ohio.
Today, we learned that the Performance EV Concept has evolved into a full-fledged passenger model with a familiar name – the Acura RSX EV.
Acura brings back the “RSX” nameplate as an EV SUV
During a media briefing earlier this week, American Honda shared its 2025 outlook, led by vice president of sales, Lance Woelfer. This year’s strategy includes the production of its first original BEV in Ohio using domestically and globally sourced parts as a new hybrid model and several ICE vehicles (boo).
Woelfer confirmed that the first bespoke all-electric model coming out of Ohio will be the Acura RSX EV. This move marks the return of a notable nameplate in the Acura lineup that evolved from the original Honda Integra. The Acura RSX was sold in North America from the early- to mid-2000s and still has a decent fanbase, especially amongst fans of the Honda Integra and Japanese Domestic Market (JDM) enthusiasts.
Acura revived the Integra nameplate in 2021 as a Honda Civic-based liftback, and although that model is sharp, it remains combustion, hence why Acura has revived the RSX name as an EV model. Per Mike Langel, assistant vice president, Acura National Sales.
The nameplate pays homage to the Acura RSX with its coupe-like silhouette, but it truly represents a forward-looking approach to fun-to-drive performance. Our second all-electric SUV will solidify our EV credentials even as its ICE stablemates, the all-new ADX, RDX, MDX, TLX and Integra continue to attract new buyers to the Acura brand.
The Acura RSX EV, seen in a unique camo wrap above, looks quite sleek, but I predict Integra and RSX purists may reject this new model out of the gate because it’s undeniably an SUV, not a sporty compact like the vehicle(s) it’s named after. This reminds me of when Ford introduced the Mustang Mach-E, and brand loyalists argued, “That’s not a Mustang.” Just like the Mach-E, the Acura RSX EV represents a new generation of performance models, no matter what you call it.
The new SUV also represents a massive step for Honda and its premium brand, as the Acura RSX EV will be the first model to utilize Honda’s new EV platform and its new ASIMO OS operating system introduced at CES 2025. At the time, Honda said ASIMO will constantly update its in-vehicle software via over-the-air (OTA) updates for both the digital UX and integrated dynamics controls that will allow the automaker to deliver “a personalized ownership experience that will enhance the joy of driving.”
Acura says the RSX EV is slotted to begin development testing in real-world conditions this week ahead of planned production in Ohio later this year. We plan to visit Honda’s EV Hub later this month, so perhaps we can capture some images of where this new SUV will be built or, better yet, look at the prototype up close.
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On today’s episode of Quick Charge, we look into a new study revealing that Toyota outspends all other automakers when it comes to funding climate change denying politicians and Fred accuses Elon of misrepresenting the data behind Full Self Driving (again).
We’ve also got word that the recently redesigned Tesla Model Y is being built in Giga Berlin, Hyundai’s electrified lineup is leading a record export year for the brand, and a new study says cleantech investments will beat out conventional energy production for the first time in 2025.
New episodes of Quick Charge are recorded, usually, Monday through Thursday (and sometimes Sunday). We’ll be posting bonus audio content from time to time as well, so be sure to follow and subscribe so you don’t miss a minute of Electrek’s high-voltage daily news!
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