Oil prices could see ‘super spike well above $100’ if conflict escalates after Iran’s attack on Israel
A refinery from the north of the Persian Gulf in Iran.
Saeid Arabzadeh | Afp | Getty Images
Oil prices could soar to $100 per barrel and beyond, said market watchers, after Iran mounted an aerial attack against Israel reigniting fears of a regional war.
Iran is home to vast oil resources and is the third-largest producer in oil cartel OPEC. Any disruption in its capacity to supply global markets could send oil prices higher, analysts told CNBC. Markets will also closely monitor for developments or closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint which sits between Iran and Oman and through which one-fifth of global oil production flows daily.
“Any attack on oil production or export facilities in Iran would drive the price of Brent crude oil to $100, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz would lead to prices in the $120 to $130 range,” said Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates.
Iran fired over 300 drones and missiles on Israel on Saturday night, marking the first instance Iran launched a direct military attack on the Jewish state. A “vast majority” of the Iranian drones and missiles were intercepted, according to Israel Defense Forces spokesperson Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari. He said a 10-year-old girl was “severely injured by shrapnel,” but that there were no other casualties.
Insufficient investment makes supply more fragile and increases the chance of a super spike well above $100 if supply is disrupted.
Josh Young
portfolio manager at Bison Interests
Iran’s attack was in retaliation to an Israeli strike on its consulate in Damascus, Syria earlier this month. Iran accused Israel of bombing part of its embassy compound on April 1, killing seven Iranian military personnel, including three senior commanders.
Iran’s United Nations mission declared that following the aerial attack, the “matter can be deemed concluded.” It warned, however, that its response would be “considerably more severe” should there be further Israeli retaliation.
Compounded by underinvestment
Oil prices traded slightly lower in early morning trading in Asia. Global benchmark Brent slipped 0.31% to $90.17 a barrel Monday, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures fell 0.44% to trade at $85.28 per barrel.
Compounded by years of underinvestment in oil exploration and development, the recent geopolitical development renders global crude supplies more vulnerable, said Josh Young, portfolio manager at oil and gas investment firm Bison Interests.
“Insufficient investment makes supply more fragile and increases the chance of a super spike well above $100 if supply is disrupted,” he said.
Oil prices since the start of the year.
“I think oil prices will go to all time highs this cycle, due to a decade of under-investment in exploration and development,” Young added.
Oil faces a sizable natural decline in output. The decline rate for a conventional oil well is around 15%, absent any capital expenditure, according to Morgan Stanley’s estimates.
Oil prices have climbed in recent months on trade disruptions and delays caused by Red Sea maritime attacks from the Houthis, who claim solidarity with the Palestinian people.
Ramping up sanctions against Iran?
A dominant force in Middle East politics, Iran funds and supports groups opposing Israel, such as Palestinian militant group Hamas, Lebanon’s Hezbollah, Yemeni Houthis and Bashar al-Assad’s Syrian administration. The ongoing conflict in Gaza has often been referred to as a proxy war between Israel and Iran.
U.S. President Joe Biden condemned Iran’s attack on Israel, adding that Washington helped “take down nearly all of the incoming drones and missiles.”
“Our commitment to Israel’s security against threats from Iran and its proxies is ironclad,” Biden also said separately on social media platform X. But he also told Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that the U.S. will not participate in offensive operations against Iran, a senior administration official told NBC News.
If Iran further escalated hostilities, the U.S. and its allies would come under “renewed pressure to strengthen sanctions once again,” Betashares’ chief economist, David Bassanese, wrote in a note following the attack.
Iranian oil exports have lifted over the past few years with the U.S. “seemingly passively accepting this as a means to keep downward pressure on world oil prices,” he added.
Australian logistics company Linfox is making big moves to electrify its heavy-duty semi fleet with the addition of thirty new Volvo FH and FM Electric semi trucks as the Swedish brand works to begin production at its Brisbane facility.
Volvo Trucks is expecting to begin full scale production of its FH and FM Electric semi trucks at the Brisbane factory in early 2026, just in time to fill the Linfox order – which happens to be the company’s largest in Australia. So far.
“We are very proud to continue our close partnership with Linfox. The order for 30 Volvo electric trucks is proof of their trust in our company and in zero-emissions transport as a viable solution here and now,” said Roger Alm, President Volvo Trucks. “Our commitment to start building electric trucks in Australia demonstrates our confidence in this technology, and means we can offer an industry-leading range of purpose-built electric trucks all around the world.”
With the production kickoff of electric trucks in Australia, it means Volvo Trucks is building its big HDEVs and prime movers in five countries on three continents. Which, as the company’s electric fleet approaches the 100 millionth mile logged mark, probably means they’re pulling well ahead of some of the other guys.
“Linfox is excited to partner with Volvo in driving the future and leading sustainable logistics in Australia,” explains Peter Fox AM (Member of the Order of Australia), Executive Chairman of Linfox. “Further electrifying our fleet sets the standard for us and our customers and the entire industry.”
Linfox’ latest order includes 29 Volvo FH Electric and one FM Electric semi. The company currently has four electric Volvo trucks in its fleet of 195 semis, with plans to continue to electrify as ICE-powered assets reach retirement.
Electrek’s Take
Now counting miles in operation in the tens of millions and rolling out its third generation of electric semi trucks, Volvo (and, by extension, Mack and Renault) continue to build a huge lead in the commercial trucking space. The competition, meanwhile, seems content to post pictures of its first factory while trucks that have been on order for years still haven’t reached customers.
I can’t see how they (Tesla) catch up from here.
SOURCE | IMAGES: Volvo Trucks.
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Oakland International Airport (OAK) in Alameda, California is helping stressed-out air passengers breathe a little bit easier with the introduction of five new battery-electric K9MD shuttle buses to its ground equipment fleet.
Global EV leaders BYD aren’t coming to America – the Chinese brand is already here. The company has been building EVs in its $250 million, 106,000 square foot production facility in Lancaster, California since 2014, delivering hundreds of battery-electric buses to fleets across the world. With this order of five new K9MD buses, OAK becomes the latest airport to turn to BYD Ride to help electrify its ground operations.
“We applaud Oakland Airport and their commitment to electrifying its fleet,” said Jason Yan, Vice President of Sales, West Region and National Account at Ride. “[BYD] Ride is thrilled to partner with OAK to offer sustainable transportation solutions that benefit both the environment and the community.”
The K9MD buses seat up to 42 passengers and have a 208 mile operating range from a 352 kWh lithium iron phosphate battery. That battery is backed by a 12-year warranty to help keep fiscally conservative fleet buyers at ease, while the smooth, quiet, and electric drive keeps the fleet’s operators happy, too.
Oakland International Airport is operated by the Port of Oakland, and is scheduled to electrify its entire ground operations fleet by 2030.
Electrek’s Take
The people live and work near airports are exposed to more emissions than most – and that includes kids, the elderly … even their pets. Electrifying the assets that operate in those spaces pays huge and immediate dividends in terms of the public health of some of the most vulnerable populations.
It’s as good a place as any to start. Let’s go.
SOURCE | IMAGES: BYD.
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Environment
Trump meme coin dinner likely to include mostly non-Americans based on top $TRUMP holders
Jonathan Raa | Nurphoto | Getty Images
With President Donald Trump’s private dinner for top meme coin holders less than a week away, the leaderboard is awash with crypto wallets that are effectively anonymous.
On May 22, the top 220 $TRUMP holders are invited to a dinner with the president at his Virginia golf club outside of Washington, D.C. The event was announced last month, and the tally closed Monday night.
The nature of the pseudonymous wallets raises questions about the true identities and motivations of the token’s largest holders, who have bought a seat at the table with a U.S. president.
Documents from blockchain analytics firm Inca Digital that were reviewed by CNBC show where the top 275 $TRUMP token holders send and receive the token. Many are heavily tied to international exchanges like Binance that don’t service U.S. customers, an indication that they’re likely not U.S. citizens.
An analysis by Bloomberg revealed that 19 of the top 25 wallets are almost certainly owned by individuals operating outside the U.S.
Justin Sun, who openly shared that he bought $75 million worth of the Trump family’s World Liberty Financial token — a digital coin where 75% of proceeds go to Trump-related entities — is believed to be at the top of the $TRUMP meme token leaderboard.
Sun, who was born in China, is the crypto entrepreneur behind the Tron blockchain and is in talks with the SEC to resolve civil fraud charges.
A wallet called Sun currently holds more than $18 million worth of $TRUMP, with $4.5 million bought after the dinner contest announcement, according to Bloomberg.
Multiple reports point to the wallet being tied to the Tron founder. A representative for Sun didn’t respond to CNBC’s request for comment or confirm whether Sun is the wallet owner.
MemeCore, a Singapore-based crypto network that was vocal in its quest to secure a spot at the Trump dinner, landed in second place with an investment of $18 million. An Australian crypto entrepreneur also reportedly made the cut.
The leaderboard points to the token’s extreme volatility.
Inca Digital told CNBC that while 560,376 wallets have made a combined $5.2 billion in realized gains on the $TRUMP token, an even larger number — 592,962 wallets — have collectively lost $3.9 billion.
The figures underscore the massive wealth transfer within Trump’s crypto ecosystem, where early buyers have seen windfalls while the majority have suffered losses.
Chainalysis and Elliptic, two leading blockchain analytics firms, initially tracked $TRUMP token movements and trading fees. But days after CNBC published a story on the number of crypto wallets that had lost money on the meme coin, the firms said they were too busy with existing clients to continue blockchain analysis of the president’s self-branded meme token.
Sen. Richard Blumenthal, D-Conn., the ranking member of the Senate Subcommittee on Investigations, warned that the Trump family’s growing crypto holdings may serve as a backdoor for foreign and corporate interests seeking access to the president.
Freight Technologies, a Houston-based logistics firm that trades on the Nasdaq and has a market cap of just over $2.3 million, bought $2 million worth of the $TRUMP tokens to influence U.S.-Mexico trade policy, according to a release. CEO Javier Selgas described the move as a strategic push to “champion fair and free trade” across the U.S.-Mexico border.
Freight Technologies finished in 250th place, missing the cut for the dinner.
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