Ranking the top 10 coaches in college football for 2024
When we asked our college football reporters to rank the sport’s top 10 coaches, we figured there wouldn’t be much debate about who is No. 1 — and there wasn’t. Georgia’s Kirby Smart, whose Bulldogs are 42-2 over the past three seasons, was the unanimous pick among our 10 voters.
But after that, there was very little consensus.
The only other coach to appear on all 10 ballots was new Alabama head man Kalen DeBoer, but his rankings ranged from second to 10th.
Two coaches appeared on nine ballots: Utah’s Kyle Whittingham, whose rankings ranged from three second-place votes to two ninth places, and Florida State’s Mike Norvell, whose votes included two second places and two 10ths.
Then there’s Clemson’s Dabo Swinney, who received four second-place votes and was left off four ballots altogether.
With points assigned based on our reporters’ votes (10 points for first place, nine for second place and down to one point for 10th place), here are the complete rankings.
Also see: Surprises and snubs — top 10 coaches reaction
Other top 10s: Receivers | RBs | QBs | Pass-rushers | DBs
1. Kirby Smart, Georgia
2023 record: 13-1 (.929)
Career record: 94-16 (.855)
Points: 100 (all 10 first-place votes)
With Nick Saban retired, Smart is unquestionably the preeminent coach in college football. He took his alma mater, Georgia, to back-to-back national championships in 2021 and 2022 and played for a third national title in 2017. The Bulldogs won an SEC-record 29 straight games before losing to Alabama last season in the SEC championship game. In eight seasons at Georgia, Smart has built a juggernaut in terms of evaluating, recruiting and developing great players. He has produced 55 NFL draft picks, including 15 first-rounders, and could have as many as 10 more players selected in the upcoming draft.
Smart is unbeaten against all active coaches over the past five seasons — his only losses in that span are to Saban (3), Dan Mullen at Florida, Ed Orgeron at LSU and Will Muschamp at South Carolina. His consistency sets him apart. The Bulldogs finished 8-5 in his first season (2016), but since then, Georgia is the only team in the country to finish in the top 7 in the final AP poll every year. Smart’s Bulldogs have played for and/or won an SEC title or national title in six of those seven seasons. — Chris Low
2. Kalen DeBoer, Alabama
2023 record: 14-1 (.933)
Career record: 37-9 (.804)
Points: 62
After starting his career as an assistant at tiny Sioux Falls, his alma mater, DeBoer guided the NAIA Cougars to a 67-3 record with three national titles over a five-year stretch. From there, DeBoer embarked on a climb up the assistant-coaching ranks, during which each school he arrived at experienced near-unprecedented success, before being named the head coach at Fresno State. His modest two-year run there (12-6) led to the gig at Washington, where he transformed a team that won four games in 2021 to one that went 25-3 over the next two seasons, earning an appearance in the national title game this past season.
All DeBoer does is win. And now he takes over for the legendary Nick Saban, who set an unrealistic bar for what can be accomplished. — Kyle Bonagura
3. Kyle Whittingham, Utah
2023 record: 8-5 (.615)
Career record: 162-79 (.672)
Points: 56
Utah is the only home Whittingham has known since arriving at the school as the defensive line coach in 1994. He was elevated to defensive coordinator the next year and to head coach upon the departure of Urban Meyer just before the end of the 2004 season.
Since then, Whittingham has been a hallmark of consistency, finishing with just two losing seasons in 19 years (right after Utah made the jump from the Mountain West to the Pac-12). He guided the Utes to an undefeated season in 2008, two Pac-12 titles and eight top-25 finishes in the AP poll, including six in the past 10 years. All at a school without the resources of the other coaches’ programs on this list. — Bonagura
4. Dabo Swinney, Clemson
2023 record: 9-4 (.692)
Career record: 170-43 (.798)
Points: 50
Swinney brought longtime underachiever Clemson back to the national stage and became the first coach who truly challenged Nick Saban’s stranglehold on the sport. He guided Clemson to national titles in 2016 and 2018 — the program’s first since 1981 — while beating Saban’s Alabama squad both times. His teams made four CFP national championship game appearances in five seasons. Clemson won the ACC every year from 2015 to 2020 and never finished lower than No. 3 in the final AP poll.
A little-known wide receivers coach who became Clemson’s interim head coach midway through the 2008 season, Swinney is 170-43 as the Tigers’ head coach with eight league titles and 10 division titles. He won the Bryant Award as national coach of the year in 2015, 2016 and 2018.
Under Swinney, Clemson has had stretches when it was the nation’s premier program at positions such as wide receiver, defensive line and quarterback. Although the transfer portal/NIL era has brought more challenges, Swinney has won nine or more games in all but one full season as Clemson’s coach. — Adam Rittenberg
2023 record: 13-1 (.929)
Career record: 69-33 (.676)
Points: 49
How best to quantify Norvell’s greatness as a coach? Perhaps it’s his use of the transfer portal. While so many other coaches around the country have moaned and complained about the portal in recent years, Norvell has found the perfect formula for using it, landing standouts such as Trey Benson, Jermaine Johnson, Keon Coleman and Jared Verse, among a host of others. Or perhaps it’s the way he motivates his players, building a strong internal culture despite the extensive use of the portal.
But if you need one number to truly appreciate Norvell’s impact, here it is: 23. Twenty-three wins in the past two years at Florida State, a program that had won just 26 games total in the previous five seasons. The turnaround — in terms of wins, talent and culture — is genuinely remarkable. — David Hale
6. Dan Lanning, Oregon
2023 record: 12-2 (.857)
Career record: 22-5 (.815)
Points: 37
While only two seasons of work might make Lanning’s lofty ranking seem a bit premature, it’s hard to argue with what he has done in his first two seasons as a head coach. After helping Smart win a national championship in 2021 as Georgia’s defensive coordinator, Lanning has guided the Ducks to a 22-5 record.
Like Ryan Day at Ohio State, Lanning couldn’t get past what proved to be an insurmountable roadblock in the Pac-12: the Washington Huskies. Each of Oregon’s three losses to Washington the past two seasons were by three points, and the last one, a 34-31 defeat in the final Pac-12 championship game, was the most painful because it might have kept the Ducks out of the CFP.
Lanning has proven to be a great recruiter, helping Oregon land the No. 4 class in the FBS in 2024. The Ducks landed the top class in the Pac-12 in 2023. Lanning and his staff have also been adept at working the transfer portal, adding former Auburn quarterback Bo Nix, the starter the past two seasons, then Oklahoma passer Dillon Gabriel this year. There have been some questionable in-game decisions from Lanning, but one would expect he’ll get better with experience. Time will tell if Lanning follows in Smart’s footsteps as a former defensive coordinator who became one of the sport’s premier head coaches, but he’s well on his way to doing it. — Schlabach
7. Steve Sarkisian, Texas
2023 record: 12-2 (.857)
Career record: 71-49 (.592)
Points: 35
It was only a matter of time until Sarkisian put all the pieces together. After all, the guy has studied under three of the greatest coaches in modern college football history in LaVell Edwards, Pete Carroll and Nick Saban. Be it throwing for nearly 7,500 yards in two seasons with Edwards at BYU, serving as quarterbacks coach for Carson Palmer, Matt Leinart and Mark Sanchez under Carroll at USC, turning Jake Locker into a first-round pick (and then coaxing a pair of brilliant seasons out of Keith Price) while flipping Washington from 0-12 to 9-4, or averaging 47.2 and 48.5 points per game, respectively, in two seasons of calling plays for Saban at Alabama, Sarkisian has been heavily influential in offensive brilliance for most of the past 30 years.
His breakthrough as a head coach came in 2023. After going just 13-12 in his first two years leading a perpetually underachieving Texas program, Sark’s Longhorns won 12 games, took their first Big 12 title in 14 seasons and made their first College Football Playoff appearance. Now they head to the SEC with legitimate top-5 bona fides and a coach capable of not only leading them back among the country’s elite but keeping them there. — Bill Connelly
2023 record: 11-2 (.846)
Career record: 96-49 (.662)
Points: 29
At 48, Kiffin is already in his fifth head-coaching stop. He was hired as the Oakland Raiders’ coach in 2007, when he was only 31, and although there were some growing pains along the way, he has developed into one of the more creative and interesting coaches in college football. Entering his fifth season at Ole Miss, Kiffin has accomplished things in Oxford that hadn’t been done before. The Rebels have won 10 regular-season games in two of the past three seasons; prior to Kiffin’s arrival, they had never won 10 regular-season games. Kiffin is renowned as one of the top offensive minds in the game, and his offenses are both balanced and unpredictable. Ole Miss and Alabama are the only two teams in the SEC to average 33 or more points each of the past four seasons.
Kiffin is quick to troll anybody and everybody on social media and is polarizing among rival fan bases. He’s still a bit of a lightning rod, but said his time working under Saban helped him become a more efficient manager of an entire program. Kiffin has also worked the evolving nature of college football to his advantage and scored big in the transfer portal. — Low
9. Lance Leipold, Kansas
2023 record: 9-4 (.692)
Career record: 54-54 (.500)
Points: 28
In the six seasons before Lance Leipold arrived at Kansas, the Jayhawks went 9-60. In 2023, they went 9-4. You can almost rest your case right there. Hired after spring practice had already concluded in 2021, Leipold inherited a team that had gone 0-9 in 2020 and won two, then six, then nine games. While it’s unfair to compare anyone to Bill Snyder, he has done one hell of a Snyder impression over his first three seasons in Lawrence, and with his track record, there’s reason to believe he could keep it up.
This is, after all, a guy with six national titles on his résumé. Once a Division III dynasty builder at Wisconsin-Whitewater, Leipold has since taken his masterful culture building to Buffalo and KU, and damned if it’s not working wherever he goes. He’ll face a new challenge in 2024, coaching without ace offensive coordinator and right-hand man Andy Kotelnicki for the first time since 2012. (Kotelnicki moved on to the Penn State OC job.) But if anyone in college football gets the benefit of the doubt, it’s Leipold.
Kansas won nine games last year! Kansas! It boggles the mind. — Connelly
2023 record: 11-2 (.846)
Career record: 56-8 (.875)
Points: 27
Day’s teams are 39-3 in Big Ten play the past five-plus seasons, 56-8 overall and played in a New Year’s Six bowl game or the CFP in each of his full seasons. The Buckeyes won back-to-back Big Ten titles in his first two seasons (2019 and 2020) and are 18-8 against AP top-25 opponents under Day.
Unfortunately, those Big Ten losses came against that “Team Up North,” Michigan, in each of the past three seasons, leaving some Ohio State fans to wonder if Day should be on the hot seat. Whether he can reverse the Buckeyes’ losing streak to the Wolverines, especially now that former Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh is in the NFL, will go a long way in determining his future.
Day’s offenses have been ranked in the top three in the FBS in scoring three times and in total offense four times. Yet the Buckeyes are only 2-4 in bowl games and haven’t won a Big Ten title since 2020. Turning over the offensive playcalling to former UCLA head coach Chip Kelly might be the recipe to getting OSU back on top in the expanded Big Ten. — Schlabach
Also receiving votes: Brian Kelly, LSU (23); Lincoln Riley, USC (20); Kirk Ferentz, Iowa (7); Luke Fickell, Wisconsin (7); Eliah Drinkwitz, Missouri (6); Mack Brown, North Carolina (3); Mike Gundy, Oklahoma State (3); Jonathan Smith, Michigan State (3); Deion Sanders, Colorado (2); Curt Cignetti, Indiana (1); Chris Klieman, Kansas State (1); Jon Sumrall, Tulane (1)
Cleveland Guardians pitchers Emmanuel Clase and Luis Ortiz were charged with fraud, conspiracy and bribery stemming from an alleged scheme to rig individual pitches that led to gamblers winning hundreds of thousands of dollars, according to an indictment unsealed by federal prosecutors Sunday.
Ortiz was arrested Sunday morning in Boston and will appear in court Monday, according to prosecutors, and Clase is not in custody.
Prosecutors at the Eastern District of New York, the Brooklyn-based United States Attorney’s office that levied similar charges against NBA player Terry Rozier and multiple coaches in late October, said in the indictment that Clase arranged with a bettor as early as May 2023 to throw specific pitches for balls so the gambler could place prop bets and profit. Ortiz, prosecutors said, joined the scheme in June 2025, and between the two, gamblers won at least $450,000 wagering on their pitches, while Clase and Ortiz were given kickbacks for their participation.
Clase and Ortiz each could face up to 20 years in prison for wire fraud conspiracy, 20 years for honest services wire fraud conspiracy, 20 years for money laundering conspiracy and five years for conspiracy to influence sporting events by bribery, according to prosecutors.
“The defendants deprived the Cleveland Guardians and Major League Baseball of their honest services,” Joseph Nocella Jr., the U.S. Attorney for the Eastern District, said in a statement. “They defrauded the online betting platforms where the bets were placed. And they betrayed America’s pastime. Integrity, honesty and fair play are part of the DNA of professional sports. When corruption infiltrates the sport, it brings disgrace not only to the participants but damages the public trust in an institution that is vital and dear to all of us.”
In a statement to ESPN, Ortiz’s attorney Chris Georgalis denied the charges, saying his client “has never, and would never, improperly influence a game — not for anyone and not for anything.” A message to Clase’s attorney seeking comment has not been returned.
Clase, a three-time All-Star and two-time Reliever of the Year, and Ortiz were placed on non-disciplinary paid leave by MLB in July after betting-integrity firms flagged irregular wagering on a pair of pitches thrown by Ortiz in June.
While the pervasiveness of legalized gambling has upended the sports world, the allegations against Clase and Ortiz are the most severe for the sport since Pete Rose agreed to a lifetime ban for betting on baseball in 1989. MLB’s rules against gambling on the sport are strict, and Clase and Ortiz could face lifetime bans similar to the one delivered last year to San Diego Padres infielder Tucupita Marcano, who placed nearly 400 bets on baseball.
In a statement, MLB said: “MLB contacted federal law enforcement at the outset of its investigation and has fully cooperated throughout the process. We are aware of the indictment and today’s arrest, and our investigation is ongoing.” The Guardians in a statement said they were aware of the charges and will continue to cooperate with law enforcement and MLB.
In a 23-page indictment, prosecutors outlined a scheme perpetrated by Clase, the 27-year-old right-hander regarded as one of the best relief pitchers in baseball. According to prosecutors, Clase would regularly throw balls instead of strikes and sliders rather than cutters on the first pitch of at-bats in which bettors would wager on the individual pitches to be balls or under a specific miles-per-hour threshold. The proposition bets, according to the indictment, would often be stacked in a parlay, leading to greater winnings.
Clase provided money to bettors to gamble on his behalf, texted with bettors during games and later was joined in the scheme by Ortiz, a 26-year-old right-hander who joined the Guardians in a December 2024 trade, the indictment said.
The earliest example, according to the indictment, came in a May 19, 2023 game between the Guardians and New York Mets, in which Clase relayed information that he would throw a pitch faster than 94.95 mph. Bettors, prosecutors said, won $27,000 on that pitch. Weeks later, bettors added a leg to a parlay for a pitch to be a ball slower than 94.95 mph — and won $38,000 when Clase spiked a slider at least 5 feet in front of home plate.
By April 2025, the indictment said, Clase “requested and received bribe and kickback payments in exchange for agreeing to throw specific pitches.” One day after throwing a pitch that hit the grass in front of home plate — about 10 feet short — Clase texted one bettor asking if he had gambled on the pitch, according to the indictment. When the bettor affirmed he had, the indictment said, Clase asked for money to be sent to the Dominican Republic — where Clase, Ortiz and the bettor are from — “for repairs at the country house.”
During the three years of the alleged scheme, prosecutors said, one bettor placed 16 parlays in which one leg was Clase throwing a ball. Of the eight pitches involved in those bets, seven were successful. The eighth was a pitch in the dirt swung at by Los Angeles Dodgers outfielder Andy Pages.
Ortiz’s involvement started June 15, 2025, according to the indictment, when he agreed with Clase that he would be paid $5,000 to throw the first pitch of the second inning for a ball. Clase, prosecutors said, received $5,000 for arranging the alleged fraud. Two bettors wagered a total of $13,000 on the pitch, the indictment said. When Ortiz received a payment of 90,000 Dominican pesos — approximately $1,400 — Clase directed him to lie about the purpose of the money if asked and say “this payment is for a horse,” according to prosecutors.
“Okay, perfect,” Ortiz said.
On June 27, 2025, Ortiz agreed to throw the first pitch of the third inning for a ball in exchange for $7,000, the indictment said. Bank security footage captured Clase withdrawing $50,000 in cash, of which he gave $15,000 to one of the bettors, who was in Cleveland that day, to wager on the pitch, according to prosecutors. The bettors placed $18,000 on the pitch, which was far outside the strike zone, according to the indictment.
Georgalis disputed the indictment’s findings in his statement.
“As Luis’ defense team extensively explained and documented to the government before these charges were brought, Luis’ payments and other transfers of money between him and individuals in the Dominican Republic were for lawful activities,” the statement read. “Notably, the indictment completely lacks any alleged evidence connecting Luis to these alleged bettors or demonstrating any purposeful involvement in a scheme.
There is no credible evidence Luis knowingly did anything other than try to win games, with every pitch and in every inning. Luis looks forward to fighting these charges in court. The government’s case is weak and circumstantial. He will defend himself, and he will be prevail.”
Clase has made more than $12 million over a major league career that has spanned seven seasons and was scheduled to make $6.4 million in 2026. Ortiz’s salary in 2025 was $782,600.
In one of the wildest finishes of the season, Indiana managed to keep its undefeated season alive with a late drive against Penn State. Most other teams in the top 10, though, won with little trouble. In the only top-10 vs. top-10 matchup, Texas Tech dominated BYU. And after its quarterback left the game with an injury, Virginia lost to Wake Forest in a low-scoring affair.
What does it all mean for the AP Top 25? Let’s break down the rankings.
Stats courtesy of ESPN Research.
All times Eastern.
Previous ranking: 1
2025 record: 9-0
Week 11 result: Defeated Purdue 34-10
Stat to know: Ohio State is 51-1 against unranked opponents under Ryan Day.
What’s next: Saturday vs. UCLA, 7:30 p.m., NBC
Previous ranking: 2
2025 record: 10-0
Week 11 result: Defeated Penn State 27-24
Stat to know: Saturday’s win was Indiana’s first on the road against Penn State.
What’s next: Saturday vs. Wisconsin, noon, Big Ten Network
Previous ranking: 3
2025 record: 9-0
Week 11 result: Defeated Missouri 38-17
Stat to know: Texas A&M is the only team this season with three road wins against AP-ranked opponents.
What’s next: Saturday vs. South Carolina, noon, ESPN
Previous ranking: 4
2025 record: 8-1
Week 11 result: Defeated LSU 20-9
Stat to know: Alabama has won eight straight after losing their opener at Florida State.
What’s next: Saturday vs. Oklahoma, 3:30 p.m., ABC
Previous ranking: 5
2025 record: 8-1
Week 11 result: Defeated Mississippi State 41-21
Stat to know: Georgia’s 20-point win is its largest in a road conference game since its 2023 win at Tennessee.
What’s next: Saturday vs. Texas, 7:30 p.m., ABC
Previous ranking: 7
2025 record: 9-1
Week 11 result: Defeated The Citadel 49-0
Stat to know: Ole Miss is 23-2 against nonconference opponents under Lane Kiffin.
What’s next: Saturday vs. Florida, 7 p.m., ESPN
Previous ranking: 6
2025 record: 8-1
Week 11 result: Defeated Iowa 18-16
Stat to know: Kicker Atticus Sappington was 3-for-3 on field goals including a go-ahead 39-yarder with three seconds remaining.
What’s next: Friday vs. Minnesota, 9 p.m., Fox
Previous ranking: 9
2025 record: 9-1
Week 11 result: Defeated BYU 29-7
Stat to know: Texas Tech has won nine of its first 10 games for the first time since 2008.
What’s next: Saturday vs. UCF, 3:30 p.m., Fox
Previous ranking: 10
2025 record: 7-2
Week 11 result: Defeated Navy 49-10
Stat to know: Notre Dame is the first team to start 0-2 and then win seven straight since Washington State in 2016.
What’s next: Saturday at Pittsburgh, noon, ACC Network
Previous ranking: 13
2025 record: 7-2
Week 11 result: Idle
What’s next: Saturday at Georgia, 7:30 p.m., ABC
Previous ranking: 11
2025 record: 7-2
Week 11 result: Idle
What’s next: Saturday at Alabama, 3:30 p.m., ABC
Previous ranking: 8
2025 record: 8-1
Week 11 result: Lost to Texas Tech 29-7
Stat to know: The loss to Texas Tech was BYU’s worst loss by points over the past two seasons.
What’s next: Saturday vs. TCU, 10:15 p.m., ESPN
Previous ranking: 15
2025 record: 8-2
Week 11 result: Defeated Auburn 45-38 (OT)
Stat to know: Vanderbilt is 8-2 for the first time since 1941.
What’s next: Nov. 22 vs. Kentucky
Previous ranking: 16
2025 record: 8-1
Week 11 result: Idle
What’s next: Saturday at Boston College, 3:30 p.m., ACC Network
Previous ranking: 17
2025 record: 6-2
Week 11 result: Idle
What’s next: Saturday at Baylor, 7 p.m., ESPN2
Previous ranking: 18
2025 record: 7-2
Week 11 result: Defeated Syracuse 38-10
Stat to know: Carson Beck had a receiving touchdown against Syracuse, joining Cam Ward as the second Miami QB to have a receiving touchdown in the past 20 years.
What’s next: Saturday vs. NC State, 3:30 p.m., ESPN
Previous ranking: 20
2025 record: 7-2
Week 11 result: Defeated Northwestern 38-17
Stat to know: USC is now 6-0 against Northwestern.
What’s next: Saturday vs. Iowa, 3:30 p.m.
Previous ranking: 21
2025 record: 7-2
Week 11 result: Idle
What’s next: Saturday at Northwestern, noon, Fox
Previous ranking: 14
2025 record: 7-2
Week 11 result: Lost to Cal 29-26 (OT)
Stat to know: Both of Louisville’s losses this season have come in OT.
What’s next: Friday vs. Clemson, 7:30 p.m., ESPN
Previous ranking: 12
2025 record: 8-2
Week 11 result: Lost to Wake Forest 16-9
Stat to know: The loss to Wake Forest was Virginia’s first against an unranked opponent as an AP top-15 team since 2003.
What’s next: Saturday at Duke, 3:30 p.m., ESPN2
Previous ranking: 23
2025 record: 6-3
Week 11 result: Idle
What’s next: Nov. 15 vs. New Mexico State, 4:15 p.m., SEC Network
Previous ranking: 25
2025 record: 7-1
Week 11 result: Idle
What’s next: Saturday vs. Arizona, noon, FS1
Previous ranking: NR
2025 record: 7-2
Week 11 result: Idle
What’s next: Saturday vs. Notre Dame, noon, NBC
Previous ranking: NR
2025 record: 8-1
Week 11 result: Defeated Marshall 35-23
Stat to know: JMU has started 6-0 in conference play this season. That’s its best start to conference play as an FBS team.
What’s next: Saturday vs. App State, 3:30 p.m., ESPN+
Previous ranking: NR
2025 record: 7-2
Week 11 result: Defeated UTSA 55-23
Stat to know: South Florida has had six straight games with 450 or more yards of total offense, tied for the longest streak in the FBS this season.
What’s next: Saturday at Navy, noon, ESPN2
Following the first College Football Playoff rankings of the season, selection committee chair Mack Rhoades wanted to make sure reporters understood the most integral part of the ranking process.
“We’ve watched the games,” he said on the weekly teleconference. “Let me repeat that; we watch the games.”
That won’t make it easier to decide who should be No. 2 on Tuesday night: Indiana, which escaped a 3-6 Penn State team, or Texas A&M, which soundly beat a CFP top-25 team in Mizzou. A deeper dive into the statistics and résumés of both undefeated teams — plus the context of why the group ranked them No. 2 and No. 3, respectively, last week — will factor into their discussions. It might be a bigger debate than how far No. 7 BYU should fall this week after a 29-7 loss to No. 8 Texas Tech.
Here’s a prediction of what the selection committee will do when it reveals its second of six rankings Tuesday night (7 ET, ESPN).
Projecting the top 12
Why they could be here: Ohio State earned its fourth Big Ten road win of the season Saturday, albeit against a 2-8 Purdue team that hasn’t won since Sept. 6 against Southern Illinois. The Buckeyes entered Saturday ranked No. 33 in strength of schedule, according to ESPN Analytics, but No. 1 in game control and No. 3 in strength of record. “So it was certainly close [between Ohio State, Indiana and Texas A&M], but when we looked at film, and we’re blessed to have committee members and coaches that do a lot of film work, we just felt like Ohio State had a slight edge when we think about offensive line play and then a slight edge defensively,” Rhoades said after the first ranking release Tuesday. “That was really the outcome. Ohio State has some, I’m going to call them explosive players, that probably stood out as well.”
Why they could be lower: It would be difficult for the committee to justify dropping the Buckeyes below Indiana after the Hoosiers were fortunate to escape Penn State with a win Saturday, but undefeated Texas A&M continues to make a case for the top spot. The Aggies, who entered the week ranked No. 1 in strength of record, earned another CFP top-25 win at Mizzou on Saturday.
Need to know: Ohio State entered Week 11 with the best chance in the country to reach the playoff (99.2%), the best chance to earn the No. 1 seed (41.1%) and the best chance to win it all (27%).
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 29 at Michigan. It’s the only CFP top-25 team left on Ohio State’s regular-season schedule. The Buckeyes are trying to avoid a fifth straight loss to their rivals.
Why they could be here: The road win against Penn State isn’t going to help the Hoosiers’ résumé much, but they narrowly avoided putting their first-round bye in jeopardy. Indiana should remain safely in the top four, thanks to a double-digit road win against No. 9 Oregon and another CFP top-25 win at Iowa. The Hoosiers beat two teams that were in a nailbiter Saturday before Oregon won on a game-winning field goal at Iowa. Penn State and Iowa are the only opponents Indiana hasn’t defeated by double digits. The historic 63-10 win against 6-3 Illinois is another respectable résumé booster, even though it’s not against a CFP top-25 opponent.
Why they could be lower: Texas A&M continues to make a push to move up after its 38-17 win at Mizzou on Saturday. The Aggies entered Week 11 ranked higher than Indiana in strength of schedule and strength of record.
Need to know: Both of Indiana’s remaining opponents — Wisconsin and Purdue — have six losses. The Hoosiers entered Week 11 with the best chance in the Big Ten to reach the conference championship game.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 28 at Purdue. It’s on a Friday night against an in-state rival — and Indiana still has at least a 97% chance to win, according to ESPN Analytics.
Why they could be here: With Saturday’s win at Mizzou, the Aggies have won three straight SEC road games to go along with their Sept. 13 win at Notre Dame. The committee will discuss, though, that Missouri was without injured starting quarterback Beau Pribula, and the Aggies easily handled freshman quarterback Matt Zollers, who was making his first start. Texas A&M entered Week 11 ranked No. 18 in defensive efficiency, behind Ohio State (No. 3) and Indiana (No. 2), and that played a role in the committee’s decision last week. “What we saw in A&M is a really, really good football team,” Rhoades said Tuesday. “They went into Death Valley, I thought dominated a good LSU team. You have a dynamic playmaker at quarterback, Marcel Reed. He can beat you with his arm. He can beat you with his feet. Impressive win, certainly going on the road, South Bend. I think you’re talking about really small margins when you think about the difference between Ohio State, Indiana and A&M, and then I think statistically, when we looked at A&M defensively, they’re just lower than both Ohio State and Indiana. We had to make a hard decision, and you’re trying to find separators, and that was a separator for us.”
Why they could be higher: Though Indiana was fortunate to escape Penn State with a win, Texas A&M went on the road and beat the committee’s No. 22 team soundly, scoring 24 points in the second half against Mizzou.
Need to know: Texas A&M entered Saturday with a 56.7% chance to earn a first-round bye but had less than a 50% chance to beat Texas in the regular-season finale.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 28 at Texas. It’s the only ranked opponent remaining on the Aggies’ schedule, and their last road game.
Why they could be here: If the Tide didn’t start any higher in the first ranking, it’s unlikely a home win against LSU on Saturday will boost them above any of the undefeated teams. The head-to-head win will keep them above Georgia, though, as the committee’s highest-ranked one-loss team. The Tide’s road win against the No. 5 Bulldogs is one of the best in the country — arguably better than any win the teams above them can claim — but their season-opening loss to Florida State is holding them back. The Oct. 11 victory at Mizzou is still good, even if the Tigers fall out of the top 25 this week, and the committee will recognize Bama beat Mizzou when starting quarterback Beau Pribula was healthy. The Tide also have a CFP top-25 win against Tennessee, which had a bye this week. “I’m not sure, when you look at a résumé, anybody had a better stretch of four games,” Rhoades said of the Tide on Tuesday. “When you think about Alabama, really, really impressive, two of those wins on the road. Going into Athens, one of the hardest, toughest environments to be able to get out of there with a win. There was certainly discussion about the Florida State loss early on, but just felt like that four-game stretch — which by the way, historical in the SEC. Nobody has beaten four straight ranked teams without a bye.”
Why they could be lower: It would be hard for the committee to justify any movement up or down this week, given the teams around them won, the head-to-head results and last week’s ranking.
Need to know: Alabama’s strength of schedule was No. 4 in the country heading into Week 11 — better than every team ranked ahead of it. The Tide was No. 5, though, in strength of record, trailing the committee’s top three teams.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 vs. Oklahoma. This is the last ranked opponent Alabama will face.
Why they could be here: Georgia didn’t need a second-half surge at Mississippi State, after rallying from a tie or from behind during its previous three games. The committee likes what it sees from Georgia, but it has to account for head-to-head results, which is why Georgia should continue to be sandwiched between Alabama and Ole Miss again Tuesday night. “I think Gunner Stockton at quarterback has really progressed,” Rhoades said Tuesday. “It certainly feels like they have more confidence in him, doing a lot more with him. Again, he’s another maybe similar to Marcel Reed where he can beat you with his arm, he can beat you with his feet. The head-to-head against Ole Miss, obviously we took that into account. We absolutely took into account the loss at home versus Alabama.”
Why they could be lower: It would be surprising to see the Bulldogs move Tuesday night, given that nothing drastic happened around them.
Need to know: Georgia will play its last SEC game of the season Saturday against Texas, as it finishes the month against Charlotte and rival Georgia Tech.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 vs. Texas. The Longhorns beat Vanderbilt on Nov. 1 and enter this game on a four-game winning streak. They also had a bye to prepare for the trip to Athens, while Georgia is coming off a road win against Mississippi State.
Why they could be here: A lopsided win against The Citadel won’t impress the selection committee, but the Rebels already earned their respect in the first ranking. Ole Miss will still be ranked behind Georgia because of its head-to-head road loss to the Bulldogs on Oct. 18. The Rebels entered Saturday with a slight edge over Texas Tech in strength of record, but with greater separation in strength of schedule, where Ole Miss was No. 25 and Texas Tech was No. 58. The committee will also consider the Rebels’ road defeat to Georgia is a better loss than the Red Raiders’ road setback to Arizona State, which has lost two of its past four games.
Why they could be lower: Texas Tech earned a CFP top-10 win Saturday when it beat previously undefeated BYU. Ole Miss’ best win was Oct. 25 at No. 12 Oklahoma.
Need to know: The Rebels’ 45-10 win against Tulane on Sept. 20 continues to enhance their overall record strength, even though it’s not a CFP top 25 win. The Green Wave earned an important win at Memphis on Friday, keeping their playoff hopes alive. Tulane also beat Northwestern and Duke this season, and the committee pays attention to opponents’ opponents (yes, you read that right).
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 28 at Mississippi State. The Egg Bowl isn’t a gimme, even after the Bulldogs were beaten soundly Saturday by Georgia. A loss could mean a first-round road trip instead of a home game for Ole Miss — or getting bumped out of the bracket.
Why they could be here: The Red Raiders looked like the best team in the Big 12 on Saturday, and the committee will likely reflect that in its second ranking. The double-digit win against previously undefeated BYU is better than Oregon’s best win, but the loss to Arizona State could play a role in the committee keeping Texas Tech behind Ole Miss. Still, the committee factors in injuries to key players, and the Red Raiders were without starting quarterback Behren Morton (knee) on the road in their close defeat to the Sun Devils. “The loss at Arizona State without Behren at quarterback, Arizona State wins that late, so we do talk about quality wins,” Rhoades said Tuesday. “We also talk about quality losses.”
Why they could be higher: The selection committee also rewarded Texas Tech for its road win against No. 13 Utah. On Saturday, Texas Tech earned its ninth victory by at least 20 points this season, showing the committee its ability to win convincingly consistently. The Red Raiders’ defense held BYU to its fewest points in any game over the past two seasons.
Need to know: Texas Tech and BYU are still the most likely matchup in the Big 12 title game. According to ESPN Analytics, Texas Tech has a 93% chance to reach it, BYU is second with a 55% chance and Cincinnati is third (19%). If BYU captures the Big 12, Texas Tech could claim a regular-season win against the eventual Big 12 champ, which would help boost its résumé and the case for playoff inclusion as the league runner-up.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 29 at West Virginia. The Red Raiders have at least an 80% chance to win their two remaining regular-season games, but this one is slightly more difficult than against UCF because it’s on the road at a difficult venue.
Why they could be here: The Ducks got a much-needed résumé boost with Saturday’s win at Iowa, their first against a CFP top-25 team. Rhoades had said last week that Oregon had the lowest record strength of any team in the committee’s top 10. Saturday’s win also showed the group some impressive depth and grit, with the Ducks winning on the road in horrible weather and without multiple injured starters, including three of their top receivers. The question is whether Iowa will still be a top-25 team Tuesday now that the Hawkeyes have three losses.
Why they could be higher: Oregon has been passing the eye test, ranking in the top five in offensive and defensive efficiency entering Saturday. With the exception of the two close road wins at Iowa and Penn State, the Ducks have dominated their opponents, ranking No. 4 in the country in game control — trailing only Ohio State, Indiana and Texas Tech.
Need to know: Oregon has at least a 70% chance to win each of its remaining games (Minnesota, USC and at Washington), according to ESPN Analytics, but it’s still unlikely to reach the Big Ten title game. The Ducks’ head-to-head home loss to the Hoosiers is a major reason.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 22 vs. USC. The Trojans are 7-2 with one Big Ten loss and opportunities to climb in the ranking. A win at Oregon would flip the script in the conference pecking order, and if USC can beat Iowa Saturday, this game will be the Trojans’ Super Bowl.
Why they could be here: Notre Dame had no trouble dismantling an overmatched Navy team that was playing without injured starting quarterback Blake Horvath. It was Notre Dame’s seventh straight win since starting the season 0-2. The committee considered that those two losses in last week’s first ranking were by a total of four points to two CFP top-25 teams, including No. 3 and unbeaten Texas A&M. The committee was also impressed with Notre Dame’s 34-24 win against USC on Oct. 18, and that will continue to resonate with the Trojans improving to 7-2 after Friday’s win against Northwestern. Rhoades said Notre Dame had been “much, much better defensively” of late. “You look at their backfield, Jadarian Price, Jeremiyah Love, probably the best backfield in the country when you think about one-two punch,” Rhoades said. “Going into the Southern Cal game, they lost their starting center for the year, and they were able to overcome that and run for a bunch of yards, again, against Southern Cal.”
Why they could be lower: This all depends on how far BYU drops. The Cougars will most likely be at No. 10 above Notre Dame and the two-loss pack of teams, or at No. 12, and below OU and Texas but above Utah. If the Cougars drop to No. 12, Notre Dame would get a slight promotion by default this week.
Need to know: Notre Dame still has the best chance of any team to win out, according to ESPN Analytics.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 at Pitt. The Panthers might be playing the best of any team in the ACC during their five-game winning streak. They also had a bye week to prepare for the Irish.
Why they could be here: The Longhorns had a bye after earning a top-12 spot in the first ranking. Texas has won four straight, including CFP top-25 wins against Oklahoma and Vanderbilt. Vandy needed overtime to beat a 4-6 Auburn team Saturday, but that win should continue to help the Longhorns’ résumé. The Oct. 4 loss at Florida remains a stain on that résumé, though. The Longhorns’ 14-7 season-opening road defeat to No. 1-ranked Ohio State isn’t what keeps Texas out of the playoff.
Why they could be lower: It depends on how far BYU falls after losing 29-7 to Texas Tech on Saturday. BYU’s lone win against a CFP top-25 team was a 24-21 decision at home over Utah on Oct. 18. BYU entered Week 11 ranked No. 45 in strength of schedule, while Texas was No. 11. BYU didn’t lose to Florida, though — its lone defeat is to a CFP top-10 team.
Need to know: No team has a better opportunity to impress the selection committee in the final three weeks of the season than Texas, which will face two CFP top-five teams in No. 5 Georgia and No. 3 Texas A&M. If Texas splits those games and finishes as a three-loss team, it could still be ranked in the top 12 but might not make the playoff. It would be a similar situation to what happened to three-loss Alabama last year, which finished No. 11 on Selection Day, but was excluded from the playoff to make room for ACC champion Clemson. If Texas wins both games, it could jump Notre Dame and put the Irish in a similarly precarious position at No. 11 or No. 12.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 28 vs. Texas A&M. It certainly won’t be easy to win at Georgia on Saturday, but the Longhorns had a bye week to prepare for it while the Bulldogs were on the road. Texas will face in-state rival Texas A&M on a Friday night in the regular-season finale, the second top-five team it will face in a three-week span.
Why they could be here: The Sooners had a bye but are stuck behind Texas because of their head-to-head loss to the Longhorns on Oct. 11. Wins against Tennessee and Michigan, though, have them within range of making the 12-team field, and it helped that the committee ranked the Vols No. 25 as its highest-ranked three-loss team.
Why they could be lower: The selection committee probably wouldn’t shuffle this order, considering Texas and Oklahoma were off this week, but OU could stay at 12 in the second ranking if the committee keeps BYU in the top 10.
Need to know: If the playoff were today, Oklahoma would still be bumped out of the field during the seeding process to make room for the ACC champion, which is still projected to be ranked outside of the committee’s top 12 but guaranteed a spot as one of the five highest-ranked conference champions.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 at Alabama. The Sooners will be in a must-win situation in Tuscaloosa, as the rest of their résumé likely won’t be enough to compensate for a third loss, given that they’re already on the bubble in the eyes of the committee.
Why they could be here: The Cougars have a good win (Oct. 18 against Utah) and an eyebrow-raising defeat (Saturday). Texas Tech is a good team, but how BYU lost to the Red Raiders will matter. BYU was outplayed, and its offense was stifled: 67 rushing yards, 3 turnovers, 4.9 yards per pass, while converting just 3 of 14 third downs. A drop behind two-loss Texas and Oklahoma isn’t unreasonable. The Cougars have three wins against teams with fewer than four losses: Utah (7-2), Arizona (6-3) and East Carolina (6-3). But they entered Saturday ranked No. 45 in strength of schedule — significantly behind Notre Dame (23), Texas (11) and Oklahoma (13). The loss to Texas Tech opens the door for the committee to reevaluate BYU’s body of work. The committee would still likely honor BYU’s head-to-head win against Utah, though, giving the Cougars a safety net to stay in the top 12.
Why they could be higher: It was BYU’s first loss of the season, on the road, and to a top-10 team leading the nation in defensive efficiency.
Need to know: If BYU runs the table and reaches the Big 12 title game, it would clinch a spot in the playoff with a win. What happens if the Cougars finish as a two-loss runner-up with a second lopsided loss to Texas Tech? Where they’re placed in the committee’s second ranking Tuesday night will provide some insight and show how much margin for error they might have. If they land at No. 12 on Selection Day, even as the Big 12 runner-up, they’d be excluded to make room for the fifth-highest-ranked conference champion, which is projected to be South Florida out of the American Conference.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 22 at Cincinnati. The Big 12 race isn’t over yet, and Cincinnati might have something to say about it — unless the Bearcats play the way they did during a 45-14 loss at Utah. Cincinnati still has the third-best chance to reach the Big 12 title game behind Texas Tech and BYU.
Bracket
Based on the rankings above, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Indiana
No. 3 Texas A&M (SEC champ)
No. 4 Alabama
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 South Florida (American champ) at No. 5 Georgia
No. 11 Georgia Tech (ACC champ) at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Texas at No. 7 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ)
No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oregon
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 South Florida/No. 5 Georgia winner vs. No. 4 Alabama
No. 11 Georgia Tech/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Texas A&M
No. 10 Texas/No. 7 Texas Tech winner vs. No. 2 Indiana
No. 9 Notre Dame/No. 8 Oregon winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State
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