Rising oil is still the big market risk despite today’s pullback, analysts say
Markets kept their cool on Monday amid a fast-moving and volatile geopolitical landscape in the Middle East — but the longer-term risk premium has likely risen, while oil prices remain on edge, analysts said.
Iran launched more than 300 drones and missiles against military targets in Israel on Saturday, marking the first direct attack on the Jewish state from Iranian territory. The offensive caused limited damage and no fatalities.
Iran said it was acting in self-defense in response to a strike on its diplomatic compound in Damascus, Syria, earlier this month. Israel has declined to comment on its involvement.
Also on Saturday, ahead of the strike, Iran seized a container ship in the Strait of Hormuz that Tehran said was linked to Israel. The sea passage is described as the “world’s most important oil chokepoint,” with flows totaling around 21% of global petroleum liquids consumption in 2022, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
By Monday, global players including the U.S. and European leaders were seeking to cool tensions, urging Israel to show restraint in its response.
Foreign exchange markets are pricing in “near term de-escalation” in the wake of the weekend events, Adarsh Sinha, co-head of Asia FX and rates strategy at Bank of America, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Monday. The ‘safe haven’ U.S. dollar was 0.15% lower against a basket of major currencies early Monday, also weakening against the Iranian rial and the Israeli shekel.
Sinha nevertheless added that “the fact that we moved from a proxy confrontation to a direct confrontation, even though that de-escalates in the near term, the longer term risk premium probably goes up.”
“I think the FX market ultimately will take its cue from oil prices because ultimately, that’s the channel through which it spills over to the FX market,” he said.
Oil prices were lower in early Asia hours on Monday, cooling off from Friday gains which built on the expectation of an Iranian strike. Nymex WTI crude futures contracts with May expiry were 0.81% lower at $84.97 per barrel by early afternoon in London, while the ICE Brent contract with June delivery was down 0.73% at $89.79 per barrel.
Markets had priced in the “well-telegraphed” event, which explains the price decline, Amrita Sen, founder of Energy Aspects, told CNBC’s “Street Signs Europe.”
That doesn’t mean prices will continue to go down, she added — although their course will hinge on Israel’s reaction and next steps.
Risks increased
Economists and analysts agreed that overall long-term risks and uncertainty are now heightened.
“The unprecedented Iranian attack on Israeli targets casts a shadow over the economic and financial outlook beyond the region itself. The risk that the conflict in the Middle East may escalate further has increased,” Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg Bank, said in a Monday note.
Conflict between Israel and Iran is unlikely to have a severe impact on the global economy, Schmieding continued, pointing to the relatively limited effect to the economic outlook caused by Houthi attacks on cargo ships in the Red Sea.
Disruption to oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz “would be a very different matter,” he said, calling this the “key risk to watch.” However, this hit to oil exports would hurt Iran badly, Schmieding continued, meaning that Tehran is unlikely to want to escalate to such a level.
A possible Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will hold Brent prices above $84 dollars per barrel for the remainder of the year and cause a potential rally to over $100 per barrel in the event of “open war,” according to Bartosz Sawicki, market analyst at Conotoxia.
Iran’s assault has already threatened regional oil supply in a market that has been “broadly balanced” in the first part of the year, and increased the risk of flipping to undersupply, Sawicki said. Iran’s crude production totals nearly 3.5 million barrels per day, accounting for around 3.3% of global production, he noted.
“A tougher stance on Iran and stricter enforcement of previous sanctions should be expected,” Sawicki, said. Significant retaliation by Israel could meanwhile trigger an oil price rally, strong demand for the U.S. dollar and renewed buying of gold, he added.
European equity markets were slightly higher Monday, with U.S. futures also brightening from a Friday retreat.
Impact on stocks could come by way of a change to interest rate expectations, analysts at Deutsche Bank said in a note.
Yet what form that will take is uncertain, they add. Higher oil prices could keep inflation sticky in major economies, pushing back the timing of interest rate cuts — while a “geopolitical shock” could bring such trims forward by threatening growth.
Volvo has been steadily applying its Scandinavian minimalist ethos to its EV lineup, as the all-new EX90 SUV is set to launch in the US. But the brand also wanted to significantly spruce up the EX90’s older sibling, the XC90 – the brand’s most popular vehicle since its debut and the de facto family car for hordes of Americans and Europeans. This month, Volvo invited Electrek to test-drive the revised XC90 on its home turf and experience its new and improved “electrified” functionality. Here’s how it went.
Introduced in 2003, the XC90 was the brand’s first foray into the SUV market. It has been modified in recent years as a hybrid and plug-in, but it’s still the company’s top seller, despite almost a decade since its last full redesign. For 2025, the XC90 comes in three variants: two mild hybrids, the B5 and B6, and a T8 PHEV – which the company says is one of the few plug-ins with a seven-seat option, giving drivers space to haul kids or gear on short daily trips with its limited 33 miles of electric range.
Of course, restyling the XC90 itself after all of this time sidesteps the brand’s original goal of 100% electric cars by 2030. That’s no longer the case, as Volvo has backtracked, as has Mercedes, with a new target of 90% electrified vehicles by the same date. Clearly, that’s not the same thing.
First-drive impressions – safe, comfortable, and very Volvo-esque
Mid-November, Volvo flew journalists out from the US, with me flying over from France to Copenhagen for four days of quality time with the new variants and meet-and-greets with designers, propulsion experts, and interior specialists. From Copenhagen, we paired up in twos for a full day and a half of driving from Denmark across the famed Oresund Bridge on the border between Sweden and Denmark (fans of the Swedish series The Bridge will know it well) to cruise around the mellow Swedish countryside, stopping by fishing villages, a chocolate factory, and into Malmö on a gloomy afternoon, as the sun started to set at 3:30 p.m.
The T8 plug-in – which we drove along with the B5 hybrid – is the brand’s most powerful and efficient of the XC90s, offering 310 horsepower with 295 pound-feet of torque and a 0-to-60 mph time of 5 seconds. It has an inline four-cylinder gas engine with an electric motor and 400-volt three-layer lithium ion 18.8 kWh battery with 14.7 kWh of usable energy. The fact that drivers can do most of their short daily drives on pure electric power is a plus, of course, but you need to put in the time to recharge it. Its 6.4 kW onboard charger takes five hours to go from empty to 100% charged (or 10 hours on an ordinary 120-volt outlet).
As for the test drive, rural southern Sweden is picturesque, but the course itself was flat, unvaried, and sparsely populated except for our roving caravan of some 20 beige SUVs. But we had plenty of time to tinker with the infotainment and the advanced driver assist systems – including loads of state-of-the-art bonuses like intelligent speed assist, pilot assist, parking assist, and a truly incredible head-up display. It also comes with five drive modes, including off-road, but this vehicle is about quiet luxury, not thrill rides.
Of course, testing the electric range was a short-lived experience, so after those 33 or so miles, we spent the rest of the day gas-guzzling via a high-performance four-cylinder petrol engine with advanced e-boost and turbo technology. Honestly, it was hard to feel the difference, and the transition from electric to gas was quick and unnoticeable despite trying out some fast acceleration (smooth as butter) and maneuvering. Plus the interior of the car feels like a cocoon – it’s so quiet. The refresh includes enhanced sound insulation and suspension, so it’s like you’re traveling in a safe, protective Scandi-bubble. And that’s Volvo’s goal.
Exterior refresh – lots of tweaks, new wheels, new color
Looking at the outside of the car, the new XC90’s exterior changes offer a fresh new take on the brand’s “Thor’s Hammer” T-shaped headlights, flanking a new asymmetric grille, layered with the Volvo trademark. The new front sheet metal has seen a few tweakments, with an overall cleaner, fresher look, while the rest of the profile looks relatively unchanged. Of course, a proper refresh comes with a new color and some new wheels, and there are new designs in 20-, 21-, and 22-inch sizes, along with a new red paint option called 739 Mulberry Red. While we tested the “Bright Dusk” T8, the deep Mulberry Red version was on view at a mid-drive event, and it was a nice surprise from the grays and beiges.
The driving experience – smooth, safe, and so very quiet
The most significant upgrade to the XC90 is to the interior, which has been revamped to accommodate an 11.2-inch infotainment screen complete with built-in Google apps. Volvo says it has a higher pixel density and faster response time than earlier versions. Both the EX90 and the XC90 get the latest version of Volvo’s Google-based infotainment system with a ton of updated menu items that, in theory, allow you to gain access to commonly used functions with fewer steps. But do people only want access to opening the glove box via the infotainment system? I guess that’s all part of the minimalism. While Volvo says it is as intuitive as a smartphone, there is a small learning curve if you’re not already familiar with it.
Stepping into the vehicle, comfort is clearly the focus, with Volvo touting it as an “upgraded Scandinavian living room.” It leans into a premium feel without any garish touches, relying on a rich, tasteful, unfettered design. It feels good. New to the XC90 are the tailored dashboard in grained charcoal vinyl and recycled textile decors. Two new stunning “responsibly produced” upholsteries are added, in new bio-attributed leather-free Nordico and recycled-textile Herringbone Weave. And just like the EX90, this vehicle gets the new Bowers & Wilkins speaker mesh for the instrument panel and door panels, and the sound quality of the system is rich and crisp.
T8 Vehicle specs
- Seating capacity: six or seven
- Upgraded powertrain (T8): turbocharged 2.0-liter four-cylinder PHEV
- Horsepower (T8): 455
- Peak torque (T8): 523ft. lb.
- Pure electric range (T8): 33 miles
- Transmission: eight-speed automatic
- Drivetrain: all-wheel drive
- Fuel economy, EPA: 58 MPGe
- Co2 emission, combined: 30 g/km (WLTP)
- Acceleration 0-60 mph: 5 seconds
- Overall length: 195 inches
- Wheelbase: 117.5 inches
- Height: 69.6–69.7 inches
- Width (not including mirrors): 84.3 inches
- Curb weight, PHEV 7 seater: 1,565 lb.
- Maximum towing capacity: up to 5,000 pounds when properly equipped
- Fuel tank capacity: 18.8 US gallons
- AC charging time 0–100%: 5 hours (240v, 16a)/10 hours (120v, 16a
- On-sale date: end of 2024
Final thoughts on the XC90
The new facelift is pretty much that, loads of superficial changes to the interior and exterior, as well as a new user experience and a larger, faster touchscreen, all designed to stretch out this hybrid a few more years before the EX90 takes over completely. Like its EV sibling, the focus is on a safe, comfortable, luxurious vehicle to haul kids and loads of gear around, with a few ecological Scandi touches that give it special appeal.
The XC90 competes in a crowded three-row midsize luxury SUV market against the Audi Q7, Lincoln Aviator, and Genesis GV80, among so many others. But saying that, plug-in hybrids like the XC90 T8 in the category are a rare breed, giving you the option to take your daily drives on pure electric before switching to fuel. But with a range of 33 miles, you of course won’t get very far. Plus while Volvo is pushing the seven-seat option, it seemed a bit tight to me, and only optional for kids or very quick trips, not big road trips.
Set to go on sale next month, prices for the B5 mild hybrids start at $58,450, with the XC90 T8 AWD plug-in seven-seater starting at a very reasonable $73,000 for the quality and pure good looks of the thing. Owned by China’s Geely, Volvo tells me that all of its US-bound XC90s will be made in Sweden. Volvo is targeting the US market for the XC90, followed by China, and thirdly, Europe.
Size-wise, I guess it’s perfect for loading up your car at IKEA. In Sweden, we certainly passed many IKEAs, and it was tempting. With a pure electric range of 33 miles, I suppose you could make at least part of the trip before having to switch over to gas power. The whole concept is a bit of a conundrum, but Volvo says it is giving the people what they want – a plug-in hybrid SUV that can go the distance – and it’s betting this vehicle will be a big winner for years to come.
Photos: courtesy Volvo
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Digital render of NEOM’s The Line project in Saudi Arabia
The Line, NEOM
In Saudi Arabia’s northwestern desert, a sprawling construction site replete with cranes and pile drivers sits encircled by a recently-built road. A pair of tracks cuts through the site like deep gashes through the sand, comprising the spine of what planners say will be a high-speed rail system.
The skeletal infrastructure forms the foundations of The Line, a multi-billion dollar high-tech city that its architects say will eventually house 9 million people between two 106-mile long glass skyscrapers more than 1,600 feet high.
The project, whose estimated cost is in the hundreds of billions, is just one of the hyper-futuristic venues planned in Neom, the brainchild of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and a region that the kingdom hopes will bring millions of new residents to Saudi Arabia and revolutionize living and technology in the country. It’s a core pillar of Vision 2030, which aims to diversify the Saudi economy away from oil revenues and create new jobs and industries for its burgeoning young population.
The cost of Neom has been estimated to be as high as $1.5 trillion. In the years since it was announced, Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, the mammoth sovereign wealth fund now overseeing $925 billion in assets, has poured billions into overseas investments, with ever-increasing waves of foreign investors flying to the kingdom to raise cash.
This year, however, has seen a sharp change in direction in terms of spending, with a stated emphasis on keeping investments at home along with reports of cutting costs on megaprojects like those in Neom. The changes come as the Saudi deficit grows and the outlook for oil demand, along with global oil prices, sees sustained lows.
Construction for The Line project in Saudi Arabia’s NEOM, October 2024
Giles Pendleton, The Line at NEOM
That begs the question: does Saudi Arabia have enough money to meet its lofty goals? Or will it have to be more flexible to make its spending trajectory sustainable?
One Gulf-based financier with years of experience in the kingdom told CNBC: “The PIF’s pivot towards domestic investments, widely acknowledged but now officially admitted, suggests that there is still a lot of spending needed. Saudi Arabia has poured tens of billions into projects that have yet to hint of any financial returns.”
The financier spoke anonymously as they were not authorized to speak to the press.
Andrew Leber, a researcher at Tulane University who focuses on the political economy of the Middle East, believes that the current pace of spending won’t last.
“The number of ‘we pay up front and hope for economic returns later’ giga projects that are currently underway is not sustainable,” Leber said.
“With that being said,” he added, “the Saudi monarchy has shown itself to be somewhat flexible whenever economic realities assert themselves. I do think that eventually, a number of projects will be quietly shelved in order to bring its fiscal outlays back into greater sustainability.”
Digital render of NEOM’s The Line project in Saudi Arabia
The Line, NEOM
Saudi Arabia in October cut its growth forecasts and raised its budget deficit estimates for the fiscal years 2024 to 2026 as it expects a period of higher spending and lower projected oil revenues. Real gross domestic product is now expected to grow 0.8% this year, a dramatic drop from a previous estimate of 4.4%, according to the ministry of finance.
The kingdom’s economy also swung dramatically from a budget surplus of $27.68 billion in 2022 to a deficit of $21.6 billion in 2023 as it ramped up public spending and decreased oil production due to its OPEC+ supply cut agreement. Its government forecasts a deficit of $21.1 billion for 2024, projecting revenue at $312.5 billion and expenditures at $333.5 billion.
Saudi authorities expect that the budget will remain in deficit for the next several years as it pursues its Vision 2030 plans, but they add that they are fully prepared for this.
“Our non-oil revenues have grown significantly, now it covers about 37% of expenditure. That’s a significant diversification, and that gives you a lot of comfort that you can maneuver and be stable despite the fluctuation in oil price,” Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan told CNBC in October. “Our aim is to make sure that our plans are stable and predictable.”
“We are not going to blink, we have significant fiscal resource under our disposal, and we are very disciplined in our fiscal position,” the minister said.
Saudi Arabia has an A/A-1 credit rating with a positive outlook from S&P Global Ratings and an A+ rating with a stable outlook from Fitch. That combined with high foreign currency reserves — $456.97 billion as of September, a 4% percent increase year-on-year, according to the country’s central bank — puts the kingdom in a comfortable place to manage a deficit, economists told CNBC.
Riyadh is successfully issuing bonds, tapping debt markets for more than $35 billion so far this year. The kingdom has also rolled out a series of reforms to boost and de-risk foreign investment and diversify revenue streams, which S&P Global said in September “will continue to improve Saudi Arabia’s economic resilience and wealth.”
When asked if the kingdom’s spending trajectory is sustainable, Al-Jadaan replied: “Absolutely, yes,” adding that the government recently published its numbers for the next three years and that “we think it is very sustainable.”
Still, many analysts outside the kingdom, as well as individuals working within the kingdom and on NEOM projects, are skeptical of the megaprojects’ feasibility. Reports that some projects have been dramatically cut down — in the case of the Line, its size target slashed from 106 miles to 1.5 miles and population target down from 1.5 million by 2030 to less than 300,000 — attest to that concern on a higher level.
Neom executives acknowledge that the current phase of work on The Line is for a building length of 1.5 miles — which would still make it the longest building in the world. However, the eventual goal of 106 miles has not changed, they say, stressing that cities are not built overnight and that construction is continuing apace.
For Tarik Solomon, chairman emeritus at the American Chamber of Commerce in Saudi Arabia, “it’s promising to see transparency and some project cutbacks.”
“The Kingdom’s rising external borrowing reflects challenges with Vision 2030 feasibility,” he told CNBC.
“Though debt remains manageable at 26.5% of GDP, continued small pressures add up, underscoring the need for fiscal discipline and achievable goals.”
Solomon pointed to the desire of many Saudi residents for improvements to the infrastructure they use in their daily lives — like Riyadh’s public transport, network connectivity, schools, and health care.
“The road to resilience for Saudi Arabia isn’t in figuring out ski slopes in the desert but in building with innovation, complexity, and the courage to pursue what’s truly impactful,” he said.
Tesla and Rivian have been embroiled in a lawsuit in which the former accused the latter of having stolen battery technology by poaching Tesla employees.
It sounds like the two automakers are finally about to settle the lawsuit, which has been going on for 4 years.
In 2020, Tesla filed a lawsuit against Rivian over allegedly stealing trade secrets by hiring former Tesla employees and encouraging them to bring documents. Rivian has denied the allegations.
When Tesla filed the lawsuit, it wasn’t clear what trade secrets Tesla was claiming Rivian had stolen. However, we noted that the employees listed in the lawsuits were two recruiters, an EHS manager, and a manager of Tesla’s charging networks.
The automaker claimed that these employees brought “documents consisting of highly sensitive trade secret, confidential, and proprietary engineering information” when they went to work for Rivian.
A year later, Tesla expanded the lawsuit, claiming more specifically that Rivian was “stealing the core technology for its next-generation batteries.”
At first, the companies tried to settle out of court, but it didn’t work out, so the lawsuit was moved to court last year.
Over a year later, we now learn that Tesla had notified the court that it expects to file to get the lawsuit dismissed after reaching a conditional agreement with Rivian. The company didn’t disclose the details of the settlement (via Bloomberg):
Tesla didn’t disclose specifics about the agreement in a court filing, but told a California state judge that it expects to seek dismissal of the case by Dec. 24 upon satisfactory completion of the terms.
Neither Tesla nor Rivian have commented on the reported settlement.
While Tesla has claimed that it somewhat open-sourced its patents, we have previously noted that it’s not exactly the case. Tesla claims to let other companies use its patented technology as long as they themselves don’t sue them over patent rights.
And in this specific case, Tesla alleges that Rivian has specifically hired employees to steal technologies. Again, Rivian has denied the allegation.
Electrek’s Take
The terms are unknown, but in similar cases, it often involves things like some level of access to make sure that no proprietary technology is being used or has been used.
The lawsuit is not exactly clear, but based on the timeline and the allegations of “next-gen batteries”, Tesla could have been talking about its 4680 battery cells, although those are cells. It could also be the structural battery pack.
Rivian is expected to use a taller 4695 battery from LG Energy Solutions for its next-generation vehicles.
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