The fears in Westminster as Iran-Israel tensions rise – and what UK diplomats plan to do about it
At every level of the British diplomatic machine, the focus after Saturday night’s Iranian attack on Israel is now to do whatever possible to de-escalate tensions in the Middle East.
The message from the UK government is twofold.
First, that it stands with Israel and backs its right to self-defence – after all, this terrifying attack without precedent would trigger a heavy response anywhere else around the world.
? Listen above then tap here to follow Politics at Jack at Sam’s wherever you get your podcasts ?
At the same time, they do not want to see subsequent moves that then create an out-of-control spiral.
This is broadly the view of much of the G7, reflected in the statements after the leaders’ call on Sunday afternoon.
The US – and to a certain degree Britain – helped with the operation on Saturday night and is so supportive in public to Israel right now precisely so that it might have a hope of a degree of influence on what comes next.
They are all looking nervously at what Israel does next in order to respond to the attack – hoping that occasional Israeli talk of a “significant retaliation” does not play out.
Asked what a better and a worse outcome would look like, one UK source involved in discussions said: “The best case is that Israel doesn’t strike anything inside Iran – maybe goes after proxies in Syria or Yemen.
“The worst case is they take on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure.”
There is no certainty at this moment what path the Israelis will go down.
To try and encourage them to go down the former, less aggressive path, there are some who will try and draw a line between the 1 April Israeli attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria, which killed members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard.
The fact this was a consulate building on foreign soil and allies like the US were not warned in advance was seen as huge provocation to Iran, which argues Saturday night’s attack is a response to that.
The Politics at Jack and Sam’s podcast reveals worries in Whitehall that Israel may reject any attempts to convince them that Iran’s actions were a proportionate response.
There are fears that by sending hundreds of drones towards Israel, Iran may have been attempting to “map” the operational capacity of the defence shield known as the Iron Dome.
They fear the mass attack now means Iran has a much better understanding of the manner in which the drones and other missiles were taken out by Israeli systems – where its strengths lie and where its vulnerabilities may be.
If Israel feels weaker and more vulnerable as a result of the nature of the attack, that may boost those in the Israeli war cabinet pushing for a tougher response, and to focus their resources in Iran rather than Hamas in Gaza, where they have been struggling to make progress in recent weeks.
Read more:
Will Israel let an attack by Iran go unpunished? Probably not
Iran could claim symbolic victory – but Israel’s defence held against ambitious attack
The success of the Iron Dome protection system, along with allies’ efforts to down the drones and missiles before they could damage Israel, has prevented a very different outcome.
“If I’d woken up this morning to pictures of civilian destruction and death, the response of the whole world would be very different,” said one UK figure involved, acknowledging the knife edge events are turning on.
One question now is how British politics will respond.
The Tories and Labour have adopted similar language so far, conscious just how treacherous the Middle East has proved ever since the October attack and neither is keen to misstep at the start of this new phase.
The government is looking at additional sanctions on Iran, and Labour has already signalled they would back this.
Keep up with all the latest news from the UK and around the world by following Sky News
Lord Cameron will lead the diplomacy, although he returns from a US trip that saw mixed success – which included a meeting with Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, but also a failure to see Jake Sullivan the national security advisor as had been expected.
The reality is much of the diplomacy will see the UK in the slipstream of the US, meaning that relationship is more crucial than ever.
Politics
NATO will force the UK to increase defence spending to 3.5% of GDP to keep US on side, Sky News understands
The UK will be forced to agree this month to increase defence spending to 3.5% of national income within a decade as part of a NATO push to rearm and keep the US on side, Sky News understands.
The certainty of a major policy shift means there is bemusement in the Ministry of Defence (MoD) about why Sir Keir Starmer‘s government has tied itself in knots over whether to describe an earlier plan to hit 3% of GDP by the 2030s as an ambition or a commitment, when it is about to change.
The problem is seen as political, with the prime minister needing to balance warfare against welfare – more money for bombs and bullets or for winter fuel payments and childcare.
Follow live updates: Does the UK need an ‘Iron Dome’ system?
Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer during a visit to a military base training Ukrainian troops in April. File pic: PA
Sir Keir is due to hold a discussion to decide on the defence spending target as early as today, it is understood.
As well as a rise in pure defence spending to 3.5% by 2035, he will also likely be forced to commit a further 1.5% of GDP to defence-related areas such as spy agencies and infrastructure. Militaries need roads, railway networks, and airports to deploy at speed.
This would bolster total broader defence spending to 5% – a target Mark Rutte, the head of NATO, wants all allies to sign up to at a major summit in the Netherlands later this month.
It is being referred to as the “Hague investment plan”.
Asked what would happen at the summit, a defence source said: “3.5% without a doubt.”
Yet the prime minister reiterated the 3% ambition when he published a major defence review on Monday that placed “NATO first” at the heart of UK defence policy.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
What’s in the UK Strategic Defence Review?
The defence source said: “How can you have a defence review that says NATO first” and then be among the last of the alliance’s 32 member states – along with countries like Spain – to back this new goal?
Unlike Madrid, London presents itself as the leading European nation in the alliance.
A British commander is always the deputy supreme allied commander in Europe – the second most senior operational military officer – under an American commander, while the UK’s nuclear weapons are committed to defending the whole of NATO.
Even Germany, which has a track record of weak defence spending despite boasting the largest economy, has recently signalled it plans to move investment towards the 5% level, while Canada, also previously feeble, is making similar noises.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Is the UK battle ready?
The source signalled it was inconceivable the UK would not follow suit and said officials across Whitehall understand the spending target will rise to 3.5%.
The source said it would be met by 2035, so three years later than the timeline Mr Rutte has proposed.
Defence spending is currently at 2.3%.
A second defence source said the UK has to commit to this spending target, “or else we can no longer call ourselves a leader within NATO”.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
PM challenged on NATO, defence and Gaza
Read more:
UK to build weapons factories
Russian-linked hackers targeted MoD
Sky News’s political editor Beth Rigby challenged the prime minister on the discrepancy between his spending ambitions and those of his allies at a press conference on Monday.
Sir Keir seemed to hint change might be coming.
“Of course, there are discussions about what the contribution should be going into the NATO conference in two or three weeks’ time,” he said.
“But that conference is much more about what sort of NATO will be capable of being as effective in the future as it’s been in the last 80 years. It is a vital conversation that we do need to have, and we are right at the heart of that.”
New Sky News podcast launches on 10 June – The Wargame simulates an attack by Russia to test UK defences
Mr Rutte, a former Dutch prime minister, said last week he assumes alliance members will agree to a broad defence spending target of 5% of gross domestic product during the summit in The Hague on 24 and 25 June.
NATO can only act if all member states agree.
“Let’s say that this 5%, but I will not say what is the individual breakup, but it will be considerably north of 3% when it comes to the hard spend [on defence], and it will be also a target on defence-related spending,” the secretary general said.
The call for more funding comes at a time when allies are warning of growing threats from Russia, Iran, and North Korea as well as challenges posed by China.
But it also comes as European member states need to make NATO membership seem like a good deal for Donald Trump.
The leaders of all allies will meet in The Hague for the two-day summit.
👉 Listen to Sky News Daily on your podcast app 👈
The US president has repeatedly criticised other member states for failing to meet a current target of spending 2% of national income on defence and has warned the United States would not come to the aid of any nation that is falling short.
Since returning to the White House, he has called for European countries to allocate 5% of their GDP to defence. This is more than the 3.4% of GDP currently spent by the US.
Mr Rutte is being credited with squaring away a new deal with Mr Trump in a meeting that would see allies increase their defence spending in line with the US president’s wishes.
The NATO chief is due to visit London on Monday, it is understood.
Texas Representative Brandon Gill faces scrutiny after filing late disclosures for $500,000 in Bitcoin trades, as questions over timing and STOCK Act violations arise.
Paris-based Blockchain Group acquired $68 million in Bitcoin, bringing its total holdings to 1,471 BTC amid rising institutional interest in crypto treasury strategies.
-
Sports3 years ago‘Storybook stuff’: Inside the night Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series
-
Sports1 year agoStory injured on diving stop, exits Red Sox game
-
Sports2 years agoGame 1 of WS least-watched in recorded history
-
Sports2 years agoMLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
-
Sports4 years ago
Team Europe easily wins 4th straight Laver Cup
-
Environment2 years agoJapan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea
-
Environment2 years agoGame-changing Lectric XPedition launched as affordable electric cargo bike
-
Business3 years agoBank of England’s extraordinary response to government policy is almost unthinkable | Ed Conway