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At every level of the British diplomatic machine, the focus after Saturday night’s Iranian attack on Israel is now to do whatever possible to de-escalate tensions in the Middle East.

The message from the UK government is twofold.

First, that it stands with Israel and backs its right to self-defence – after all, this terrifying attack without precedent would trigger a heavy response anywhere else around the world.

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At the same time, they do not want to see subsequent moves that then create an out-of-control spiral.

This is broadly the view of much of the G7, reflected in the statements after the leaders’ call on Sunday afternoon.

The US – and to a certain degree Britain – helped with the operation on Saturday night and is so supportive in public to Israel right now precisely so that it might have a hope of a degree of influence on what comes next.

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They are all looking nervously at what Israel does next in order to respond to the attack – hoping that occasional Israeli talk of a “significant retaliation” does not play out.

Asked what a better and a worse outcome would look like, one UK source involved in discussions said: “The best case is that Israel doesn’t strike anything inside Iran – maybe goes after proxies in Syria or Yemen.

“The worst case is they take on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure.”

There is no certainty at this moment what path the Israelis will go down.

To try and encourage them to go down the former, less aggressive path, there are some who will try and draw a line between the 1 April Israeli attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria, which killed members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard.

The fact this was a consulate building on foreign soil and allies like the US were not warned in advance was seen as huge provocation to Iran, which argues Saturday night’s attack is a response to that.

The Politics at Jack and Sam’s podcast reveals worries in Whitehall that Israel may reject any attempts to convince them that Iran’s actions were a proportionate response.

There are fears that by sending hundreds of drones towards Israel, Iran may have been attempting to “map” the operational capacity of the defence shield known as the Iron Dome.

They fear the mass attack now means Iran has a much better understanding of the manner in which the drones and other missiles were taken out by Israeli systems – where its strengths lie and where its vulnerabilities may be.

If Israel feels weaker and more vulnerable as a result of the nature of the attack, that may boost those in the Israeli war cabinet pushing for a tougher response, and to focus their resources in Iran rather than Hamas in Gaza, where they have been struggling to make progress in recent weeks.

Read more:
Will Israel let an attack by Iran go unpunished? Probably not
Iran could claim symbolic victory – but Israel’s defence held against ambitious attack

The success of the Iron Dome protection system, along with allies’ efforts to down the drones and missiles before they could damage Israel, has prevented a very different outcome.

“If I’d woken up this morning to pictures of civilian destruction and death, the response of the whole world would be very different,” said one UK figure involved, acknowledging the knife edge events are turning on.

One question now is how British politics will respond.

The Tories and Labour have adopted similar language so far, conscious just how treacherous the Middle East has proved ever since the October attack and neither is keen to misstep at the start of this new phase.

The government is looking at additional sanctions on Iran, and Labour has already signalled they would back this.

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Lord Cameron will lead the diplomacy, although he returns from a US trip that saw mixed success – which included a meeting with Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, but also a failure to see Jake Sullivan the national security advisor as had been expected.

The reality is much of the diplomacy will see the UK in the slipstream of the US, meaning that relationship is more crucial than ever.

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Another tantrum from the Labour backbenches is inevitable

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Rachel Reeves hints at tax rises in autumn budget after welfare bill U-turn

In common with many parents across the country, here’s a conversation that I have with my young daughter on a semi-regular basis (bear with me, this will take on some political relevance eventually).

Me: “So it’s 15 minutes until your bedtime, you can either have a little bit of TV or do a jigsaw, not both.”

Daughter: “Ummmm, I want to watch TV.”

Me: “That’s fine, but it’s bed after that, you can’t do a jigsaw as well.”

Fast-forward 15 minutes.

Me: “Right, TV off now please, bedtime.”

(Pause)

Daughter: “I want to do a jigsaw.”

Now replace me with the government, the TV and jigsaw options with axing welfare cuts and scrapping the two-child cap, and my daughter with rebellious backbenchers.

Politics latest: Former Labour leader calls for wealth tax on assets above £10m

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Rachel Reeves’s fiscal dilemma

That is the tension currently present between Downing Street and Labour MPs. And my initial ultimatum is the messaging being pumped out from the government this weekend.

In essence: you’ve had your welfare U-turn, so there’s no money left for the two-child cap to go as well.

As an aside – and before my inbox fills with angry emails lambasting me for using such a crude metaphor for policies that fundamentally alter the lives of some of the most vulnerable in society – yes, I hear you, and that’s part of my point.

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Welfare U-turn ‘has come at cost’

For many in Labour, this approach feels like the lives of their constituents are being used in a childish game of horse-trading.

So what can be done?

Well, the government could change the rules.

Altering the fiscal rules is – and will likely remain – an extremely unlikely solution. But as it happens, one of Labour’s proverbial grandparents has just popped round with a different suggestion.

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Welfare: ‘Didn’t get process right’ – PM

A wealth tax, Lord Neil Kinnock says, is the necessary outcome of the economic restrictions the party has placed on itself.

Ever the Labour storyteller, Lord Kinnock believes this would allow the government to craft a more compelling narrative about whose side this administration is on.

That could be valuable, given one of the big gripes from many backbench critics is that they still don’t really understand what this prime minister stands for – and by extension, what all these “difficult decisions” are in aid of.

The downside is whether it will actually raise much money.

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Is Corbyn an existential risk to Labour?

The super-rich may have lots of assets to take a slice from, but they also have expensive lawyers ready to find novel ways to keep their client’s cash away from the prying eyes of the state.

Or, of course, they could just leave – as many are doing already.

In the short term, the future is a bit easier to predict.

If Downing Street is indeed now saying there is no money to scrap the two-child cap (after heavy briefing in the opposite direction just weeks ago), an almighty tantrum from the backbenches is inevitable.

And as every parent knows, the more you give in, the harder it becomes to hold the line.

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UK restores diplomatic ties with Syria

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UK restores diplomatic ties with Syria

The UK has re-established diplomatic ties with Syria, David Lammy has said, as he made the first visit to the country by a British minister for 14 years.

The foreign secretary visited Damascus and met with interim president Ahmed al Sharaa, also the leader of the rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), and foreign minister Asaad al Shaibani.

It marks the latest diplomatic move since Bashar al Assad’s regime was toppled by rebel groups led by HTS in December.

In a statement, Mr Lammy said a “stable Syria is in the UK’s interests” and added: “I’ve seen first-hand the remarkable progress Syrians have made in rebuilding their lives and their country.

“After over a decade of conflict, there is renewed hope for the Syrian people.

“The UK is re-establishing diplomatic relations because it is in our interests to support the new government to deliver their commitment to build a stable, more secure and prosperous future for all Syrians.”

Foreign Secretary David Lammy shakes hands with Syrian interim president Ahmed al-Sharaa in Damascus. Pic: X / @DavidLammy
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Foreign Secretary David Lammy with Syria’s interim president Ahmed al Sharaa in Damascus. Pic: X / @DavidLammy

The Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office has also announced a £94.5m support package for urgent humanitarian aid and to support the country’s long-term recovery, after a number of British sanctions against the country were lifted in April.

While HTS is still classified as a proscribed terror group, Sir Keir Starmer said last year that it could be removed from the list.

The Syrian president’s office also said on Saturday that the president and Mr Lammy discussed co-operation, as well as the latest developments in the Middle East.

Read more:
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Since Assad fled Syria in December, a transitional government headed by Mr al Sharaa was announced in March and a number of western countries have restored ties.

In May, US President Donald Trump said the United States would lift long-standing sanctions on Syria and normalise relations during a speech at the US-Saudi investment conference.

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From May: Trump says US will end sanctions for Syria

He said he wanted to give the country “a chance at peace” and added: “There is a new government that will hopefully succeed.

“I say good luck, Syria. Show us something special.”

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Secret Service seizes $400M in crypto, cold wallet among world’s largest

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Secret Service seizes 0M in crypto, cold wallet among world’s largest

Secret Service seizes 0M in crypto, cold wallet among world’s largest

Secret Service quietly amasses one of the world’s largest crypto cold wallets with $400 million seized, exposing scams through blockchain sleuthing and VPN missteps.

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