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At every level of the British diplomatic machine, the focus after Saturday night’s Iranian attack on Israel is now to do whatever possible to de-escalate tensions in the Middle East.

The message from the UK government is twofold.

First, that it stands with Israel and backs its right to self-defence – after all, this terrifying attack without precedent would trigger a heavy response anywhere else around the world.

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At the same time, they do not want to see subsequent moves that then create an out-of-control spiral.

This is broadly the view of much of the G7, reflected in the statements after the leaders’ call on Sunday afternoon.

The US – and to a certain degree Britain – helped with the operation on Saturday night and is so supportive in public to Israel right now precisely so that it might have a hope of a degree of influence on what comes next.

More on Israel-hamas War

They are all looking nervously at what Israel does next in order to respond to the attack – hoping that occasional Israeli talk of a “significant retaliation” does not play out.

Asked what a better and a worse outcome would look like, one UK source involved in discussions said: “The best case is that Israel doesn’t strike anything inside Iran – maybe goes after proxies in Syria or Yemen.

“The worst case is they take on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure.”

There is no certainty at this moment what path the Israelis will go down.

To try and encourage them to go down the former, less aggressive path, there are some who will try and draw a line between the 1 April Israeli attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria, which killed members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard.

The fact this was a consulate building on foreign soil and allies like the US were not warned in advance was seen as huge provocation to Iran, which argues Saturday night’s attack is a response to that.

The Politics at Jack and Sam’s podcast reveals worries in Whitehall that Israel may reject any attempts to convince them that Iran’s actions were a proportionate response.

There are fears that by sending hundreds of drones towards Israel, Iran may have been attempting to “map” the operational capacity of the defence shield known as the Iron Dome.

They fear the mass attack now means Iran has a much better understanding of the manner in which the drones and other missiles were taken out by Israeli systems – where its strengths lie and where its vulnerabilities may be.

If Israel feels weaker and more vulnerable as a result of the nature of the attack, that may boost those in the Israeli war cabinet pushing for a tougher response, and to focus their resources in Iran rather than Hamas in Gaza, where they have been struggling to make progress in recent weeks.

Read more:
Will Israel let an attack by Iran go unpunished? Probably not
Iran could claim symbolic victory – but Israel’s defence held against ambitious attack

The success of the Iron Dome protection system, along with allies’ efforts to down the drones and missiles before they could damage Israel, has prevented a very different outcome.

“If I’d woken up this morning to pictures of civilian destruction and death, the response of the whole world would be very different,” said one UK figure involved, acknowledging the knife edge events are turning on.

One question now is how British politics will respond.

The Tories and Labour have adopted similar language so far, conscious just how treacherous the Middle East has proved ever since the October attack and neither is keen to misstep at the start of this new phase.

The government is looking at additional sanctions on Iran, and Labour has already signalled they would back this.

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Lord Cameron will lead the diplomacy, although he returns from a US trip that saw mixed success – which included a meeting with Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, but also a failure to see Jake Sullivan the national security advisor as had been expected.

The reality is much of the diplomacy will see the UK in the slipstream of the US, meaning that relationship is more crucial than ever.

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Chancellor admits tax rises and spending cuts considered for budget

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Chancellor admits tax rises and spending cuts considered for budget

Rachel Reeves has told Sky News she is looking at both tax rises and spending cuts in the budget, in her first interview since being briefed on the scale of the fiscal black hole she faces.

“Of course, we’re looking at tax and spending as well,” the chancellor said when asked how she would deal with the country’s economic challenges in her 26 November statement.

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Ms Reeves was shown the first draft of the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) report, revealing the size of the black hole she must fill next month, on Friday 3 October.

She has never previously publicly confirmed tax rises are on the cards in the budget, going out of her way to avoid mentioning tax in interviews two weeks ago.

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Chancellor pledges not to raise VAT

Cabinet ministers had previously indicated they did not expect future spending cuts would be used to ensure the chancellor met her fiscal rules.

Ms Reeves also responded to questions about whether the economy was in a “doom loop” of annual tax rises to fill annual black holes. She appeared to concede she is trapped in such a loop.

Asked if she could promise she won’t allow the economy to get stuck in a doom loop cycle, Ms Reeves replied: “Nobody wants that cycle to end more than I do.”

She said that is why she is trying to grow the economy, and only when pushed a third time did she suggest she “would not use those (doom loop) words” because the UK had the strongest growing economy in the G7 in the first half of this year.

What’s facing Reeves?

Ms Reeves is expected to have to find up to £30bn at the budget to balance the books, after a U-turn on winter fuel and welfare reforms and a big productivity downgrade by the OBR, which means Britain is expected to earn less in future than previously predicted.

Yesterday, the IMF upgraded UK growth projections by 0.1 percentage points to 1.3% of GDP this year – but also trimmed its forecast by 0.1% next year, also putting it at 1.3%.

The UK growth prospects are 0.4 percentage points worse off than the IMF’s projects last autumn. The 1.3% GDP growth would be the second-fastest in the G7, behind the US.

Last night, the chancellor arrived in Washington for the annual IMF and World Bank conference.

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The big issues facing the UK economy

‘I won’t duck challenges’

In her Sky News interview, Ms Reeves said multiple challenges meant there was a fresh need to balance the books.

“I was really clear during the general election campaign – and we discussed this many times – that I would always make sure the numbers add up,” she said.

“Challenges are being thrown our way – whether that is the geopolitical uncertainties, the conflicts around the world, the increased tariffs and barriers to trade. And now this (OBR) review is looking at how productive our economy has been in the past and then projecting that forward.”

She was clear that relaxing the fiscal rules (the main one being that from 2029-30, the government’s day-to-day spending needs to rely on taxation alone, not borrowing) was not an option, making tax rises all but inevitable.

“I won’t duck those challenges,” she said.

“Of course, we’re looking at tax and spending as well, but the numbers will always add up with me as chancellor because we saw just three years ago what happens when a government, where the Conservatives, lost control of the public finances: inflation and interest rates went through the roof.”

Pic: PA
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Pic: PA

Blame it on the B word?

Ms Reeves also lay responsibility for the scale of the black hole she’s facing at Brexit, along with austerity and the mini-budget.

This could risk a confrontation with the party’s own voters – one in five (19%) Leave voters backed Labour at the last election, playing a big role in assuring the party’s landslide victory.

The chancellor said: “Austerity, Brexit, and the ongoing impact of Liz Truss’s mini-budget, all of those things have weighed heavily on the UK economy.

“Already, people thought that the UK economy would be 4% smaller because of Brexit.

“Now, of course, we are undoing some of that damage by the deal that we did with the EU earlier this year on food and farming, goods moving between us and the continent, on energy and electricity trading, on an ambitious youth mobility scheme, but there is no doubting that the impact of Brexit is severe and long-lasting.”

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