Are we heading for World War Three? Experts give their verdicts

Published

1 year ago

April 16, 2024

admin

In a world that has grown more dangerous in recent years, the nightmare scenario of a Third World War is in the public consciousness.

Earlier this year, UK Defence Secretary Grant Shapps warned the world could be engulfed by wars involving China, Russia, North Korea and Iran in the next five years, and said we are moving “from a post-war to pre-war world”.

The relief felt at the end of the Cold War in the late ’80s has been replaced with increasing alarm at Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and there is outcry at the humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza.

Sky News spoke to experts about whether World War Three is a possibility – and if we really are living in a “pre-war world”.

Here’s what they had to say…

‘The international order is fraying’

Hugh Lovatt, senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations thinktank

“The reassuring news is we are not heading towards the Third World War,” he says.

While there are conflicts in tensions in various theatres – Ukraine, the Middle East, Asia-Pacific – these are all “separate and not connected”, according to Mr Lovatt.

“The Gaza war has been going on for six months and is driving regional escalation – Iran’s retaliation against Israel is just the latest example of this.”

There are implications for the international community, including the UK, for example in terms of the Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping and the impact that has on global trade.

There is, he says, a risk that British troops become sucked into a conflict in the Middle East.

“We need to see these risks in a certain context which is they do impact the UK but they are not existential risks.

“This is also happening at a time when the international order is fraying, is under considerable strain. This is something that we should be very troubled by.”

‘More likely now than at any time since the end of the last world war’

Deborah Haynes, Sky News security and defence editor

Given the scale of the turmoil shaking parts of the globe – in particular in Ukraine and the Middle East – the potential for a spark that ignites World War Three already exists.

That does not mean an escalation to global confrontation is inevitable but it is arguably more likely now than at any time since the end of the last world war.

A decision by Iran to launch an unprecedented barrage of missiles and drones against Israel has just raised the stakes even higher.

Israel has vowed to respond though its allies, including the UK and the US, are urging restraint especially as they helped ensure the vast majority of incoming munitions were blasted out of the sky before they could cause harm on the ground.

Should Israel choose to retaliate, the crisis could yet be contained if its return strike is limited and any further Iranian response triggered by such an attack is also curbed. But they are two big ifs.

Also, every time even limited military action is taken there is the risk of error or miscalculation that leads to uncontrolled escalation to regional war.

What happens in the Middle East also has a global impact, especially because Iran is backed by Russia and has close ties to China, while Israel’s strongest allies, led by the US, are predominately Western nations.

It means the crisis pitches authoritarian states against democracies – just as the concurrent war in Europe does.

Despite vows of Western support, Russia is slowly gaining ground in Ukraine. Western allies are failing to deliver the weapons and ammunition the Ukrainian military needs – leading to an almost inevitable retreat unless the balance of military strength on the ground changes.

Success by Vladimir Putin in Ukraine may embolden the Russian president, whose country is on a “total war” footing, to test the strength of the NATO alliance by invading a member state.

Again, this would create a direct war between authoritarian Moscow, armed by Iran, North Korea and also with assistance from China, against the West’s NATO alliance.

Evidence that military force has proved effective against Western powers could further harden China’s resolve to make good on a pledge to reunite the island of Taiwan with the mainland even if that means invading.

Such a move could also plunge Asia into conflict, again along the same dividing line of authoritarian states versus democracies.

‘Diversion of attention’

Edward R Arnold, senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) thinktank

“I think people really need to understand what the North Atlantic Treaty is, which is the foundation of NATO,” he says.

Mr Arnold argues that the public seem to believe that NATO’s Article 5 (the principle that an attack on one member is treated as an attack on all) is automatic.

“That’s not the case or certainly does not have to be the case… escalation is not automatic and there are measures to de-escalate things.”

Looking to the situation in Ukraine, where NATO has been providing weapons and assistance, he says the risk of a miscommunication between the West and Russia has increased.

“The chances of a miscommunication where one ship accidentally fires on another, I think that goes up.

“We need to be really prepared about what that means.”

He also argues that in some ways the threat of a wider conflict with Russia is reducing at the moment. Kremlin forces are starting to make progress in Ukraine, but the quality of their troops has been degraded significantly such that they are not in a position to present a threat to NATO.

Mr Arnold continued: “Vladimir Putin will be looking pretty closely at what happens in the Middle East: how each nation responds and just the diversion of attention (from Ukraine).

“It’s all helping Putin at the moment because while focused on the Middle East we are not as focused as we have been on Ukraine.”

‘Donald Trump could undermine NATO’

Dr Luigi Scazzieri, senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform thinktank

“It depends on your definition of World War Three. A possible conflict between Iran and Israel has the potential to expand into a major military conflagration in the Middle East, with global implications.

“The US would almost certainly be drawn in on Israel’s side and other Western countries, including the UK, may do the same to a lesser extent.

“But their involvement would be limited and this would not be World War Three, not least as Russia can ill-afford to support Iran and because China is unlikely to.

“The impact of such a conflict on Europe would be primarily economic, through further disruption in energy flows and trade.

“The primary pathway to a World War Three scenario remains a direct Western clash with Russia. That scenario will be more likely if Donald Trump wins and undermines NATO, tempting Vladimir Putin into an attack on the Baltics.

“A clash with Russia would also be quite likely if Western forces become involved in supporting Ukraine in frontline combat roles.”

US

Benjamin Netanyahu nominates Donald Trump for Nobel Peace Prize – as Gaza ceasefire talks continue

Published

4 hours ago

July 8, 2025

admin

Benjamin Netanyahu nominates Donald Trump for Nobel Peace Prize - as Gaza ceasefire talks continue

Israel’s prime minister has nominated Donald Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize.

Benjamin Netanyahu made the announcement at a White House dinner, handing over the letter for the US president to read.

“Coming from you in particular, this is very meaningful,” Mr Trump said.

The Israeli leader said Mr Trump was “forging peace as we speak, and one country and one region after the other”.

Organisers award the prize to the person who does the most for “fraternity between nations, for the abolition or reduction of standing armies and for the holding and promotion of peace congresses”.

Mr Trump took credit for stopping Iran and Israel‘s “12-day war” last month, announcing it with fanfare on Truth Social, and the ceasefire has so far held.

The president has claimed US strikes obliterated Iran’s purported nuclear weapons programme – and that the country now wants to restart negotiations.

“We have scheduled Iran talks, and they want to,” Mr Trump told reporters on Monday. “They want to talk.”

👉 Follow Trump100 on your podcast app 👈

Iran hasn’t confirmed the move, but its president told US broadcaster Tucker Carlson he believes his country can resolve differences with the US through dialogue.

Masoud Pezeshkian also said Iran would be willing to resume cooperation with the UN nuclear watchdog.

However, he said full access to nuclear sites wasn’t yet possible as US strikes had damaged them so badly.

Away from Iran, fighting continues in Gaza and Ukraine.

Mr Trump famously boasted before his second stint in the White House that he could end the Ukraine war in 24 hours.

The reality has been very different – with Ukraine saying last week that Russia unleashed the heaviest aerial attack of the war so far.

Critics have also claimed Vladimir Putin is “playing” his US counterpart and that he has no intention of agreeing a ceasefire.

However, Mr Trump could try to take credit for progress in Gaza if – as he’s suggested – an agreement on a 60-day ceasefire is done this week.

Indirect negotiations with Hamas are taking place that could lead to the release of some of the remaining 50 Israeli hostages and a surge in aid to Gaza.

The White House said Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff is travelling to Qatar this week to try to seal the agreement.

Whether a temporary pause could open a path to a lasting peace remains uncertain, with the two sides’ criteria for peace still far apart.

Mr Netanyahu has said Hamas must surrender, disarm and leave Gaza – something it refuses to do.

He also told reporters on Monday that the US and Israel were working with other countries who would give Palestinians “a better future” – and indicated those in Gaza could move elsewhere.

“If people want to stay, they can stay, but if they want to leave, they should be able to leave,” he added.

“We’ve had great cooperation from… surrounding countries, great cooperation from every single one of them. So something good will happen,” Mr Trump said.

The president was widely criticised earlier this year when he suggested resettling Gaza’s population to countries such as Jordan and Egypt and turning it into the “Riviera of the Middle East”.

Human rights groups said the plan amounted to ethnic cleansing and most Gazans said they would never consider leaving.

US

Texas floods: At least 104 killed – as new images show scale of the destruction

Published

10 hours ago

July 8, 2025

admin

Texas floods: At least 104 killed - as new images show scale of the destruction

At least 104 people have died in the flash floods that have left a trail of destruction across Texas.

Kerr County Sheriff’s Office said the number of bodies found in the area had risen from 75 to 84 – including 56 adults and 28 children.

The have been seven fatalities in Travis County, six in Kendall County, four in Burnet County, two in Williamson County and one in Tom Green County.

Earlier, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt warned that “the situation on the ground remains dangerous” and that there “could be additional public safety threats with additional incoming heavy rain”.

Latest updates – Texas floods

The floods that first struck on Friday have wreaked havoc and left people in a state of grief – with 27 of the confirmed deaths having taken place at a girls’ summer camp in Kerr County.

Among those killed at Camp Mystic were Renee Smajstrla and Sarah Marsh, both eight, Eloise Peck and Lila Bonner, both nine, and the camp’s director Richard Eastland.

A photo has now emerged showing the inside of the camp on Saturday after the waters hit.

At least 41 people are still missing in the state – including 10 girls from Camp Mystic.

In her news conference, Ms Leavitt criticised people who have claimed the Trump administration’s cuts to the National Weather Service (NWS) have played a role in the worsening the disaster.

It comes after Texas officials criticised the NWS by claiming it failed to warn the public about the impending danger.

Meanwhile, Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer asked the Department of Commerce’s acting inspector general on Monday to probe whether staffing vacancies at the NWS’s San Antonio office contributed to “delays, gaps, or diminished accuracy” in forecasting the flooding.

The NWS did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Mr Schumer’s letter, but earlier defended its forecasting and emergency management.

Ms Leavitt has told reporters that claims Mr Trump was responsible for any issues related to the flash floods response were “depraved and despicable”.

“It is not [a political game], it is a national tragedy,” she said.

The press secretary also claimed, in relation to some NWS offices being reportedly understaffed, that one place actually had “too many people”.

“Any person who has deliberately lied about the facts around the catastrophic event, you should be deeply ashamed,” she said.

She also said that Mr Trump was going to visit Texas “later in the week”.

Previously, Mr Trump said it was likely he would visit on Friday.

Texas Senator Ted Cruz spoke at a news conference and said: “Texas is grieving right now, the pain, the shock of what has transpired these last few days has broken the heart of our state.

“Those numbers [the number of dead] are continuing to go up… that’s every parent’s nightmare, every mum and dad.”

He said he had picked up his own daughter from a camp in the area last week.

Mr Cruz added: “You know what I’d do? What I did when this happened? Just go hug your kids.

“Because I’ve got to tell you, I hugged my girls with tears in my eyes.”

Dalton Rice, the city manager of Kerrville in Kerr County, was asked whether evacuation warnings could have been issued earlier.

He said: “It’s very tough to make those calls because we also don’t want to cry wolf.

“You know, we want to make sure that we activated [it] at the right time.”

He added: “We had first responders getting swept away, responding to the first areas of rainfall. That’s how quick it happened.

“They were driving to these areas and one of them got swept off the road.”

US

The ‘Alligator Alcatraz’ detention centre was built in eight days – but problems are emerging

Published

12 hours ago

July 8, 2025

admin

The 'Alligator Alcatraz' detention centre was built in eight days - but problems are emerging

Videos and satellite imagery show how quickly Donald Trump’s detention centre in Florida has been constructed – as experts suggest the design of the site is flawed and will compromise the safety of people being held there.

Sky News’ Data and Forensics team has verified footage posted on social media that shows water covering the ground near electricity cables during a storm as the first detainees were due to arrive.

The Florida Division of Emergency Management (FDEM), run by Governor Ron DeSantis, posted on X that detainees were at the site on 3 July just before 1pm local time (6pm UK time).

Donald Trump held a tour of the facility on 1 July that took journalists around “Alligator Alcatraz”. Its name is a reference to both the local reptile population and the former maximum-security Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary in San Francisco Bay, California.

The tour showed the rapid construction of the centre, designed to accommodate up to 3,000 detainees. The purpose of the site is to house individuals detained by US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).

James Uthmeier, Florida’s attorney general, posted on X: “And in just a week, Alligator Alcatraz was built.”

Political commentator Benny Johnson, who was on the tour, praised the eight-day turnaround. “I don’t think anyone realises how impressive Alligator Alcatraz is,” he said.

Amid those positive comments, videos emerged highlighting flooding in the centre, with electricity cables covered with water on the day of the tour.

The flooding was said to have been caused by a small storm. However, the state department claims the structures and tents can withstand category two hurricanes, reaching 110mph winds.

FDEM spokesperson Stephanie Hartman wrote in a statement that “vendors had tightened any seams at the base of the structures that allowed water to come in during the storm”. She described the water intrusion as minimal.

Steff Gaulter, a Sky News meteorologist, said: “In the last 10 years, we’ve seen 13 hurricanes that have hit Florida. Seven of them have been category three or higher.

“As well as needing to know how strong these storms are as they come, it’s also very unpredictable, their track can change at the last minute.”

The American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) and the Structural Engineering Institute (SEI) have said structures in risk category two – which Alligator Alcatraz falls under – need to withstand 121mph wind gusts.

If the housing tents exceed 300 occupants per tent, the guidelines go up to 167mph.

Ms Gaulter explained: “You don’t necessarily need a hurricane in order to see a gust of wind over 100mph. In the lowest category of hurricane, category one, the range of winds would be between 74mph and 95mph. But even in that category, you can easily get a gust of wind up to 120mph.”

Dr Patrick McSharry, Professor at Carnegie Mellon University and former head of catastrophe risk financing at Oxford University, told Sky News that in a hurricane “there’s no way that a tent is going to be in any way something that you would advise someone to be in”.

“It’s more the case of having a plan in place that can be mobilised really fast to get people out of that dangerous situation.”

The site is also located in a hurricane-prone region as defined by ASCE.

Discussing building regulations, Dr McSharry said: “We’re dealing here potentially with human lives so it’s an even more sensitive calculation I think that needs to be made.”

Sky News put these concerns to Ron DeSantis and the Florida state department, but did not receive responses.

White House spokeswoman Abigail Jackson told Sky News: “Alligator Alcatraz is a state-of-the-art facility that will play a critical role in fulfilling the president’s promise to get the worst criminal illegal aliens out of America as fast as possible.

“President Trump is grateful to partner with [Homeland] Secretary [Kristi] Noem and Ron DeSantis on this important project.”

Satellite imagery obtained by Sky News shows the rapid construction of the centre, which was formerly Dade-Collier Training Airport.

Five days after the centre was announced by Florida’s attorney general James Uthmeier, more than 60 new trailers can be seen on the right-hand side of the runway.

Satellite imagery obtained by Sky News also shows that from 24 June to the opening date on 1 July, more than seven large housing tents were put up at the site.

The site is reportedly set to open with 3,000 beds, expanding to 5,000 by early July.  

It is also reported that the site will cost an estimated $450m (£330m) per year to operate, with a bed costing $245 (£180) per day.

The bill is reported to be covered by the state of Florida, which plans to get money back from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and Department of Homeland Security (DHS).

Tessa Petit, director of the Florida Immigrant Coalition, told Sky News: “It was constructed too [quickly]. This is a sign that we’re seeing a disaster [waiting to] happen as we look at it.

“Usual detention centres come up with, you know, their bricks and mortar, right? This is not bricks and mortar. This is just tents and mobile homes that are assembled on an airstrip.”

“There’s a detention of immigrants in a place that has been in the past ravaged by hurricanes and we’re getting into hurricane season,” Ms Petit added.

She is concerned that medical support and sanitary provisions, like a sewage system, will not have been properly installed.

“You can’t build a sewage system that can sustain 3,000 people in eight days. You can’t dig in the Everglades. So, what are going be the additional sanitary conditions?” she said.

There are also sustainability concerns about the site.

The Centre for Biological Diversity has filed a lawsuit in US District Court to protect the Florida Everglades. They state it is “a reckless plan to build a massive detention centre for people caught in immigration raids”.

Tania Galloni, an attorney working with the Centre for Biological Diversity, stated the proposed plan “has not undergone the environmental review required by federal law, and the public has had no chance to provide feedback”.

The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.