Iranian soldiers take part in an annual military drill in the coast of the Gulf of Oman and near the strategic Strait of Hormuz.
Anadolu | Anadolu | Getty Images
The containership MSC Aries seized by Iran over the weekend marked at least the sixth vessel hijacked by Iran and its proxies in response to the Israel-Gaza war, and it’s adding to the challenges to longstanding freedom of navigation principles that maritime shipping relies on.
Before this weekend’s tanker seizure, the last vessel Iran hijacked was the St. Nikolas on January 1. According to U.S. Naval Forces Central Command, that brought the total number of vessels being held to five, and over 90 crew members hostage. Previous to that, the Iranian-backed Houthis hijacked The Galaxy Leader on November 19.
The latest development has shipping and energy experts bracing for a long-term timeline of uncertainty.
“Iran is in this for the long haul,” said Samir Madani, co-founder of Tankertrackers.com, an independent online service that tracks and reports crude oil shipments in several geographical and geopolitical points of interest.
The MSC Aries was identified by Iran as having a link to Israel. The containership has a carrying capacity of 15,000-TEUs (twenty-foot equivalent containers). MSC chartered the vessel, but it is owned by Israeli billionaire Eyal Ofer’s Zodiac Maritime.
MSC declined to comment.
Madani said he does not expect a quick release or negotiation of a release. “They will hold the MSC Aries for a long period. Iran has been holding some tankers for about a year, if not longer now,” he said.
According to Tankertracker information, Madani said the vessel is being held in the Khuran Straits, not too far from three other tankers Iran hijacked: the Advantage Sweet, Niovi, and St. Nikolas.
A Planet Labs satellite image of the location of the MSC Aries and other tankers recently hijacked by Iran.
Planet Labs PBC
As the U.S. considers more sanctions against Iran in response to its recent attack on Israel, Iran has been using the hijacked ships as a means of sanctions retaliation.
“Iran has already seized the Kuwaiti oil that was onboard the Advantage Sweet and has been loaded onto their VLCC supertanker the Navarz. Iran chose to do this as a way to compensate for sanctions,” Madani said.
While the Niovi was empty at the time of the seizure, the St. Nikolas is filled with a million barrels of Iraqi oil.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Tuesday that the government may do more to prevent Iran’s ability to export oil despite U.S. sanctions. China’s purchases of Iranian oil in recent years have allowed Iran to keep a positive trade balance.
According to the U.S. Energy Information Agency, China, the world’s largest importer of crude oil, imported 11.3 million barrels per day of crude oil in 2023, 10% more than in 2022. Iran ranked second in oil exports to China behind Russia. Customs data indicates that China imported 54% more crude oil (1.1 million b/d) from Malaysia in 2023 than in 2022, with industry analysts speculating that much of the oil shipped from Iran to China was relabeled as originating from countries such as Malaysia, the United Arab Emirates, and Oman to avoid U.S. sanctions.
The markets continues to assess the risk of further escalation in the military tensions between Israel and Iran, which could lead to a disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 30% of the world’s seaborne oil passes, according to JPMorgan. On Tuesday, oil edged higher amid talk of sanctions.
An Iranian blockade would supercharge oil prices, but the risk is low given that the strait has never been closed off despite many threats by Tehran to do so over the past four decades, according to JPMorgan.
“They can’t close the Strait of Hormuz, but they can do significant damage to energy infrastructure, to vessels in the region,” RBC’s head of global commodity strategy and Middle East and North Africa research, Helima Croft, told CNBC on Monday, referring to Iran’s capabilities.
“While I can’t imagine Iran would want to fill up their anchorage with vessels, they want to keep the waters in a constant state of chaos,” Madani said. But with a closure, he said, “They would shoot themselves in the foot since their biggest client is China.”
Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, says the closure of the Strait of Hormuz would result in a spike of Brent crude oil prices to the $120 to $130 range. “This would strain ties with China and India who purchase a significant amount of Persian Gulf oil to meet much of their energy demand.”
Lipow also said Iran might be reluctant to shut the waterway for fear of antagonizing Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iraq, who depend on the strait being open for most of their oil exports. The bigger immediate fear in the oil market, he said, is that the attack by Iran on Israeli territory leading to a counterattack by Israel on Iran damaging oil-producing and exporting facilities.
Kevin Book, managing director of ClearView Energy Partners, says the markets need to keep an eye on sanctions from both the US and UN potentially.
In a note to clients, ClearView highlighted that the House of Representatives added several Iran sanctions bills to its calendar for consideration this week, under suspension rules, including new sanctions on Iranian oil exports to China. Book said the House was considering 11 bills in all in response to Iran’s attack on Israel.
“We think most if not all bills could garner (notionally) veto-proof bipartisan support,” the note said. “Passage requires a two-thirds majority of all members present and voting.”
Israel has also asked the U.N. to reinstate multilateral sanctions lifted by the Iran nuclear deal, but for this to happen, France, Germany and the U.K., parties to the nuclear deal, would have to agree.“There are many risks unfolding. The forest is on fire,” Book said.
Tesla average transaction prices (ATPs) in March are estimated at $54,582, higher year-over-year by 3.5% and higher than in February, according to the latest monthly new-vehicle ATP report from Cox Automotive’s Kelley Blue Book.
Average transaction prices for the Tesla Model 3 and Model Y were higher month-over-month and year-over-year in March. Tesla’s sales in Q1 continued their long-term decline after peaking in Q1 2023. Estimates from Kelley Blue Book suggest Tesla’s sales in Q1 2025 were lower year-over-year by more than 8%. Its deliveries were also worse than expected.
New EV prices in March overall are initially estimated by Kelley Blue Book to be $59,205, higher year-over-year by 7.0%. New EV prices increased from the revised higher February ATP of $57,015.
The ATP for an EV last month was nearly 25% higher than the industry average of $47,462, widening the price gap between new EVs and gas-powered cars even more.
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But EVs are still seeing heftier incentives than the industry average. In March, the average EV incentive came in at 13.3% of the transaction price – down 1% from February’s revised 14.3% but still well above what gas cars are getting.
So, where are we heading? Higher prices, thanks to Trump’s tariffs. But what that will look like remains to be seen. Erin Keating, executive analyst at Cox Automotive, said, “All signs point to higher prices this summer, as existing ‘pre-tariff’ inventory is sold down to be eventually replaced with ‘tariffed’ inventory. How high prices rise for consumers is still very much to be determined, as each automaker will handle the price puzzle differently.”
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BYD just launched the first EVs based on its new Super e-platform with ultra-fast charging. The new Han L sedan and Tang L SUV can gain nearly 250 miles range in 5 minutes, and prices start at just $30,000.
Meet BYD’s new EVs with ultra-fast charging
During a launch event on April 9, BYD introduced the new EV models, claiming its engineers have “achieved the master realm of Chinese technology.”
The Han L and Tang L are the first EVs based on BYD’s 1000V Super e-platform. After unveiling the ultra-fast EV charging platform last month, BYD’s CEO, Wang Chuanfu, said to ease charging anxiety, “The ultimate solution is to make charging as quick as refueling a gasoline car.”
That solution is now here. BYD’s new Han L is available in three trims, starting at just 219,800 yuan ($30,000), lower than the pre-sale price of 270,000 yuan ($36,800).
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BYD’s new electric sedan is 5,050 mm long, 1,960 mm wide, and 1,505 mm tall, or about the size of a Tesla Model S (5,021 mm long, 1,987 mm wide, and 1,431 mm tall).
All variants are powered by an 83.2 kWh BYD Blade battery, providing up to 435 miles (701 km) of CLTC driving range. Based on BYD’s 1,000V architecture, the Han L comes with two charge guns with an up to 10C charge rate.
Nearly 250 miles in just 5 minutes?
With ultra-fast charging, the electric sedan can gain 400 km (248 miles) in just five minutes. In six minutes, it can recharge from 10% to 70%, and in just 20 minutes, it can fully recharge (0% to 100%) the battery.
Like all its new EV models, the Han L is equipped with BYD’s God’s Eye smart driving assist system. It features the mid-tier “B” version and DiPilot 300.
BYD Tang L electric SUV with ultra-fast charging (Source: BYD)
BYD’s new electric SUV, the Tang L, is also offered in three trims. It starts at 239,800 yuan ($32,700), also below the pre-sale price of 280,000 yuan ($38,200).
The Tang L is also based on BYD’s 1,000V architecture and ultra-fast charging platform. Powered by a 100.5 kWh battery, it has a CLTC range of up to 435 miles (701 km) and can gain 230 miles (370 km) in 5 minutes. It will take about 30 minutes to go from 0% to 100%.
BYD’s electric SUV is 5,040 mm long, 1996 mm wide, and 1,760 mm tall, or slightly bigger than the new Tesla Model Y Juniper in China (4,797 mm long, 1,920 mm wide, and 1,624 mm tall).
Like the Han L EV, the electric SUV has BYD’s God’s Eye B ADAS system with DiPilot 300. Both the Han L and Tang are available as PHEVs, starting at 209,800 yuan ($28,500) and 229,800 yuan ($31,300).
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The 90-day pause doesn’t eliminate the threat of tariffs — it just delays it. Investors are still pricing in risk, including inflation, discretionary pullbacks, hardware import costs and credit exposure.
Legacy payment networks such as Visa and Mastercard, both up 6%, continue to benefit from inflation and their structural ties to nominal GDP. These companies take a percentage of every transaction. That makes rising prices a tailwind.
“If prices are moving up for certain goods and you’re paying with a credit card, it’s actually good for the credit card companies,” said Dan Dolev, a fintech analyst at Mizuho.
Their pricing structure has historically made them resilient during inflationary periods, including recessions. The situation is less rosy for the new wave of consumer lending fintechs.
Affirm, which specializes in allowing consumers to buy now and pay later, could suffer if consumers pull back spending when the pause is lifted as a result of tariffs causing prices to rise. The San Francisco-based company could see its revenue less transaction costs margins — essentially what the company pockets after paying processing fees and customer incentives — drop more than 22% in that scenario, according to a Goldman Sachs estimate on Tuesday.
The adoption of buy now, pay later may rise as consumers hit credit limits, said SIG analyst James Friedman, but he added that the model remains untested in a downturn.
Toast, Block and Fiserv, which was up 6%, develop software used by restaurants and small businesses. Those companies could face rising hardware costs and softening demand from customers if the tariffs go through.
Meanwhile, cross-border payments — one of the most profitable segments for Visa, Mastercard and PayPal — remain under pressure as global travel slows and e-commerce flows adjust to the uncertainties of Trump’s tariffs.
Even remittance players such as Remitly and Western Union, both up 8%, could face longer-term pain if immigration pipelines slow or remittance corridors tighten under regulatory scrutiny. Similar to cross-border commerce, remittances depend on a steady flow of people and transactions, both of which remain fragile.