It’s the inflation, stupid: Why a ‘vibecession’ is hurting Biden – despite an economy which is the envy of Europe
In the circumstances, the numbers could hardly look much better.
A year or two ago, the conventional wisdom was that America was facing a terrific recession.
Instead, according to the latest data from the International Monetary Fund, the US has outperformed pretty much every other major economy in the world (including China).
In its latest World Economic Outlook report – the most closely-watched set of international forecasts – it upgraded the US more than nearly every other major economy.
From a European perspective, there is much to be jealous of about America’s recent performance (most European nations, including the UK, saw the IMF downgrade their growth forecasts).
Yet here’s the puzzle. Despite this comparatively strong economy, despite having seen a lower peak in inflation than most European nations (especially the UK), American consumer confidence remains in the doldrums.
It’s not just Europeans who find this perplexing. So too does the White House.
The White House worries it’s not getting credit for the strength of the economy with voters. Pic: Reuters
They pumped cash into the manufacturing sector at the very moment it needed it, via a series of expensive programmes including the CHIPS Act (to bring semiconductor manufacturing back home) and the Inflation Reduction Act (to encourage green technology firms to set up factories in the US).
The idea was that from the depths of the pandemic, America would “build back better” – that Biden would emulate Franklin D Roosevelt and his New Deal of the 1930s.
And most conventional statistics suggest that strategy is bearing fruit. Manufacturing employment is rising; factories are being constructed at the fastest rate in modern history. And gross domestic product – the most comprehensive measure of output – is rising. Unlike in the UK or Germany, there was no recession.
So why, then, is consumer confidence so weak? Why are Biden’s approval ratings – the key polling benchmark for the US leader – lower than pretty much any of his predecessors at this stage in their terms?
Travel around Pennsylvania, as we have done over the past few days, and you encounter all sorts of explanations.
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It’s the inflation, stupid
Food banks are getting busier; and while some businesses are beginning to see that federal money trickling down, many of the programmes are still at the approval stage. The money hasn’t arrived yet.
But, above all else, you hear one recurrent answer: it’s the cost of living. It’s food prices, it’s gas prices, it’s rents.
And there’s also a big gap here between life through an economic prism and the life lived on Main Street in places like Bethlehem PA – an old steel town trying to reinvigorate its economy.
Talk to an economist and they’ll remind you that inflation – the rate at which prices are changing over the past year – is finally beginning to drop. But while this is statistically true, it misses a couple of pragmatic realities.
First, prices aren’t going down; they’re just rising a bit less quickly than they were before. The squeeze hasn’t gone away.
Second, while economists often fixate on the change in the consumer price index over the past year (3.5% in March), what the rest of the population notices is the change in prices over a longer period.
Over the past two years prices are up around 9%. Over three years, they’re up 18%.
In other words, the explanation for the “vibecesssion”, as economists have christened it (there’s no formal recession but the vibes feel bad), might actually be exceptionally simple: It’s the inflation, stupid.
Summing up what voters care about, an adviser to Bill Clinton once said ‘it’s the economy, stupid’ during a 1990s US election race. Pic: Reuters
In Pennsylvania, perhaps the most critical of all the swing states in the US, the question is whether Donald Trump can capitalise on this disaffection to win over the citizens who abandoned him last time around.
In the meantime, the Biden White House is biding its time, hoping that those New Deal economic textbooks they followed when pumping cash into the economy are really to be trusted.
Politics
UK-US trade deal ‘isn’t worth the paper it’s written on’, says Nobel Prize-winning economist
A Nobel Prize-winning economist has told Sky News the recently announced UK-US trade deal “isn’t worth the paper it’s written on”.
Sir Keir Starmer and Donald Trump announced the “first-of-a-kind” agreement with a live, televised phone call earlier this week – and the British prime minister hailed the deal as one that will save thousands of jobs in the UK.
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But leading economist Joseph Stiglitz has told Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips he “wouldn’t view [the deal] as a great achievement”.
“Any agreement with Trump isn’t worth the paper it’s written on,” he said, pointing out the president signed deals with Canada and Mexico during his first term – only to slap them with hiked tariffs within days of returning to the White House this year.
“I would view it as playing into Trump’s strategy,” he said.
“His strategy is divide and conquer, go after the weakest countries, and sort of put the stronger countries in the back.”
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How good is the UK-US deal?
The scramble to secure a UK-US trade deal was sparked by Mr Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ announcement last month, which saw the president hike import tariffs for multiple countries and subsequently send global markets crashing.
China initially faced tariffs of 34% and when Beijing hit the US with retaliatory rates, a trade war quickly ensued.
The US and China now impose tariffs of above 100% on each other, but representatives from the two countries have this weekend met for high-stakes negotiations.
Read more:
Key details in the UK-US deal
Analysis – the challenge Starmer faces
Donald Trump, with US vice president JD Vance and Britain’s ambassador to the US Peter Mandelson, announcing the deal. Pic: AP
Sir Keir Starmer dialled in for the deal announcement. Pic: AP
With its response to Mr Trump, Beijing “made it very clear that the US is very dependent on China in so many ways,” Mr Stiglitz said.
“So they’re beginning now to negotiate, but from a position of strength.”
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Asked if he thinks the UK should have focused on its relationship with the EU instead of the US, Mr Stiglitz said: “Very much so.
“My view is that if you had worked with the EU to get a good deal, you could have done better than what you’ve done.
“If it turns out, in the end, when you work it all out, Trump is unhappy, he’ll run. If he’s unhappy, I pray for you.”
Among the terms in the UK-US trade deal are reduced tariffs on British car and steel exports to the US, while the UK has agreed to remove a tariff on ethanol, used to produce beer.
The agreement also opens a new agricultural exchange, with US farmers being given access to the UK for the first time – though UK food standards on imports have not been weakened.
UFC fighter turned Irish political candidate Conor McGregor has endorsed the idea of building a Bitcoin reserve in his country to give more “power back to the people.”
“Crypto in it’s origin was founded to give power back to the people. An Irish Bitcoin strategic reserve will give power to the people’s money,” McGregor wrote to X on May 9.
The former UFC champion said he would discuss his plans in more detail in an upcoming X spaces, prompting responses from some of the Bitcoin industry’s most prominent leaders.
“We need the greatest minds for this BTC Reserve. Message me and lets chat on my space,” McGregor said in response to Bitcoiner and host of The Pomp Podcast, Anthony Pompliano.
One of US President Donald Trump’s crypto advisors, David Bailey, also reached out, to which McGregor responded: “David message me, let’s discuss your ideas!”
McGregor announced his independent candidacy for the Irish presidency in late March 2025, centering his campaign on anti-immigration policies and combating crime.
Ireland’s next presidential election must take place by Nov. 11, 2025, as the term of the current President, Michael D. Higgins, is set to end the day after.
Establishing a Bitcoin reserve — let alone one coming from a minor, independent party — would be no easy feat.
Despite recent regulatory progress, the US, El Salvador and Bhutan are among the few countries that have established a Bitcoin reserve to date.
Related: US has ‘countless’ ways to bolster Bitcoin reserve: Bo Hines
McGregor’s political visibility was recently boosted by a trip to the White House, where he met Trump and received his support.
However, McGregor is facing intense scrutiny in Ireland, having recently been found guilty of sexual assault in a civil case — a conviction which he has since appealed — while also previously being investigated for hate speech crimes.
McGregor’s last crypto endeavor failed
McGregor’s push for a Bitcoin reserve comes a little over a month after the McGregor-backed REAL project failed to attract sufficient funding in its token launch pre-sale, prompting a full refund to all token bidders.
The team behind the project, Real World Gaming, only raised $392,315 over a 28-hour presale on April 5 and 6, less than half of the $1 million minimum requirement that it initially set.
Magazine: Adam Back says Bitcoin price cycle ’10x bigger’ but will still decisively break above $100K
Sir Keir Starmer has joined other European leaders in Kyiv to press Russia to agree an unconditional 30-day ceasefire.
The prime minister is attending the summit alongside French President Emmanuel Macron, recently-elected German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk.
It is the first time the leaders of the four countries have travelled to Ukraine at the same time – arriving in the capital by train – with their meeting hosted by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Sir Keir Starmer, Emmanuel Macron and Friedrich Merz travelling in the saloon car of a special train to Kyiv. Pic: Reuters
Leaders arrive in Kyiv by train. Pic: PA
It comes after Donald Trump called for “ideally” a 30-day ceasefire between Kyiv and Moscow, and warned that if any pause in the fighting is not respected “the US and its partners will impose further sanctions”.
Security and defence analyst Michael Clarke told Sky News presenter Samantha Washington the European leaders are “rowing in behind” the US president, who referred to his “European allies” for the first time in this context in a post on his Truth Social platform.
“So this meeting is all about heaping pressure on the Russians to go along with the American proposal,” he said.
“It’s the closest the Europeans and the US have been for about three months on this issue.”
Sir Keir Starmer, Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Emmanuel Macron among world leaders in Kyiv. Pic: AP
Trump calls for ceasefire. Pic: Truth Social
Ukraine’s foreign minister Andrii Sybiha said Ukraine and its allies are ready for a “full, unconditional ceasefire” for at least 30 days starting on Monday.
Ahead of the meeting on Saturday, Sir Keir, Mr Macron, Mr Tusk and Mr Merz released a joint statement.
European leaders show solidarity – but await Trump’s backing
The hope is Russia’s unilateral ceasefire, such as it’s worth, can be extended for a month to give peace a chance.
But ahead of the meeting, Ukrainian sources told Sky News they are still waiting for President Donald Trump to put his full weight behind the idea.
The US leader has said a 30-day ceasefire would be ideal, but has shown no willingness yet for putting pressure on Russian president Vladimir Putin to agree.
The Russians say a ceasefire can only come after a peace deal can be reached.
European allies are still putting their hopes in a negotiated end to the war despite Moscow’s intransigence and President Trump’s apparent one-sided approach favouring Russia.
Ukrainians would prefer to be given enough economic and military support to secure victory.
But in over three years, despite its massive economic superiority to Russia and its access to more advanced military technology, Europe has not found the political will to give Kyiv the means to win.
Until they do, Vladimir Putin may decide it is still worth pursuing this war despite its massive cost in men and materiel on both sides.
“We reiterate our backing for President Trump’s calls for a peace deal and call on Russia to stop obstructing efforts to secure an enduring peace,” they said.
“Alongside the US, we call on Russia to agree a full and unconditional 30-day ceasefire to create the space for talks on a just and lasting peace.”
Sir Keir and Volodymyr Zelenskyy during a meeting in March. Pic: AP
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Putin’s Victory Day parade explained
The leaders said they were “ready to support peace talks as soon as possible”.
But they warned that they would continue to “ratchet up pressure on Russia’s war machine” until Moscow agrees to a lasting ceasefire.
“We are clear the bloodshed must end, Russia must stop its illegal invasion, and Ukraine must be able to prosper as a safe, secure and sovereign nation within its internationally recognised borders for generations to come,” their statement added.
“We will continue to increase our support for Ukraine.”
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Read more:
Russia’s VE Day parade felt like celebration of war
Michael Clarke Q&A on Ukraine war
Ukraine and Russia accuse each other of breaching ceasefire
The European leaders are set to visit the Maidan, a central square in Ukraine’s capital where flags represent those who died in the war.
They are also expected to host a virtual meeting for other leaders in the “coalition of the willing” to update them on progress towards a peacekeeping force.
Military officers from around 30 countries have been involved in drawing up plans for a coalition, which would provide a peacekeeping force in the event of a ceasefire being agreed between Russia and Ukraine.
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This force “would help regenerate Ukraine’s armed forces after any peace deal and strengthen confidence in any future peace”, according to Number 10.
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