It’s the inflation, stupid: Why a ‘vibecession’ is hurting Biden – despite an economy which is the envy of Europe
In the circumstances, the numbers could hardly look much better.
A year or two ago, the conventional wisdom was that America was facing a terrific recession.
Instead, according to the latest data from the International Monetary Fund, the US has outperformed pretty much every other major economy in the world (including China).
In its latest World Economic Outlook report – the most closely-watched set of international forecasts – it upgraded the US more than nearly every other major economy.
From a European perspective, there is much to be jealous of about America’s recent performance (most European nations, including the UK, saw the IMF downgrade their growth forecasts).
Yet here’s the puzzle. Despite this comparatively strong economy, despite having seen a lower peak in inflation than most European nations (especially the UK), American consumer confidence remains in the doldrums.
It’s not just Europeans who find this perplexing. So too does the White House.
The White House worries it’s not getting credit for the strength of the economy with voters. Pic: Reuters
They pumped cash into the manufacturing sector at the very moment it needed it, via a series of expensive programmes including the CHIPS Act (to bring semiconductor manufacturing back home) and the Inflation Reduction Act (to encourage green technology firms to set up factories in the US).
The idea was that from the depths of the pandemic, America would “build back better” – that Biden would emulate Franklin D Roosevelt and his New Deal of the 1930s.
And most conventional statistics suggest that strategy is bearing fruit. Manufacturing employment is rising; factories are being constructed at the fastest rate in modern history. And gross domestic product – the most comprehensive measure of output – is rising. Unlike in the UK or Germany, there was no recession.
So why, then, is consumer confidence so weak? Why are Biden’s approval ratings – the key polling benchmark for the US leader – lower than pretty much any of his predecessors at this stage in their terms?
Travel around Pennsylvania, as we have done over the past few days, and you encounter all sorts of explanations.
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It’s the inflation, stupid
Food banks are getting busier; and while some businesses are beginning to see that federal money trickling down, many of the programmes are still at the approval stage. The money hasn’t arrived yet.
But, above all else, you hear one recurrent answer: it’s the cost of living. It’s food prices, it’s gas prices, it’s rents.
And there’s also a big gap here between life through an economic prism and the life lived on Main Street in places like Bethlehem PA – an old steel town trying to reinvigorate its economy.
Talk to an economist and they’ll remind you that inflation – the rate at which prices are changing over the past year – is finally beginning to drop. But while this is statistically true, it misses a couple of pragmatic realities.
First, prices aren’t going down; they’re just rising a bit less quickly than they were before. The squeeze hasn’t gone away.
Second, while economists often fixate on the change in the consumer price index over the past year (3.5% in March), what the rest of the population notices is the change in prices over a longer period.
Over the past two years prices are up around 9%. Over three years, they’re up 18%.
In other words, the explanation for the “vibecesssion”, as economists have christened it (there’s no formal recession but the vibes feel bad), might actually be exceptionally simple: It’s the inflation, stupid.
Summing up what voters care about, an adviser to Bill Clinton once said ‘it’s the economy, stupid’ during a 1990s US election race. Pic: Reuters
In Pennsylvania, perhaps the most critical of all the swing states in the US, the question is whether Donald Trump can capitalise on this disaffection to win over the citizens who abandoned him last time around.
In the meantime, the Biden White House is biding its time, hoping that those New Deal economic textbooks they followed when pumping cash into the economy are really to be trusted.
Crypto investor sentiment took another significant hit this week after Mantra’s OM token collapsed by over 90% within hours on Sunday, April 13, triggering knee-jerk comparisons to previous black swan events such as the Terra-Luna collapse.
Elsewhere, Coinbase’s report for institutional investors added to concerns by highlighting that cryptocurrencies may be in a bear market until a recovery occurs in the third quarter of 2025.
Mantra OM token crash exposes “critical” liquidity issues in crypto
Mantra’s recent token collapse highlights an issue within the crypto industry of fluctuating weekend liquidity levels creating additional downside volatility, which may have exacerbated the token’s crash.
The Mantra (OM) token’s price collapsed by over 90% on Sunday, April 13, from roughly $6.30 to below $0.50, triggering market manipulation allegations among disillusioned investors, Cointelegraph reported.
While blockchain analysts are still piecing together the reasons behind the OM collapse, the event highlights some crucial issues for the crypto industry, according to Gracy Chen, CEO of the cryptocurrency exchange Bitget.
“The OM token crash exposed several critical issues that we are seeing not just in OM, but also as an industry,” Chen said during Cointelegraph’s Chainreaction daily X show, adding:
“When it’s a token that’s too concentrated, the wealth concentration and the very opaque governance, together with sudden exchange inflows and outflows, […] combined with the forced liquidation during very low liquidity hours in our industry, created the big drop off.”
Crypto in a bear market, rebound likely in Q3 — Coinbase
A monthly market review by publicly traded US-based crypto exchange Coinbase shows that while the crypto market has contracted, it appears to be gearing up for a better quarter.
According to Coinbase’s April 15 monthly outlook for institutional investors, the altcoin market cap shrank by 41% from its December 2024 highs of $1.6 trillion to $950 billion by mid-April. BTC Tools data shows that this metric touched a low of $906.9 billion on April 9 and stood at $976.9 billion at the time of writing.
Venture capital funding to crypto projects has reportedly decreased by 50%–60% from 2021–22. In the report, Coinbase’s global head of research, David Duong, highlighted that a new crypto winter may be upon us.
“Several converging signals may be pointing to the start of a new ‘crypto winter’ as some extreme negative sentiment has set in due to the onset of global tariffs and the potential for further escalations,” he said.
Manta founder details attempted Zoom hack by Lazarus that used very real “legit faces”
Manta Network co-founder Kenny Li said he was targeted by a sophisticated phishing attack on Zoom that used live recordings of familiar people in an attempt to lure him to download malware.
The meeting seemed real with the impersonated person’s camera on, but the lack of sound and a suspicious prompt to download a script raised red flags, Li said in an April 17 X post.
“I could see their legit faces. Everything looked very real. But I couldn’t hear them. It said my Zoom needs an update. But it asked me to download a script file. I immediately left.”
Li then asked the impersonator to verify themselves over a Telegram call, however, they didn’t comply and proceeded to erase all messages and block him soon after.
Li said the North Korean state-backed Lazarus Group was behind the attack.
The Manta Network co-founder managed to screenshot his conversation with the attacker before the messages were deleted, during which Li initially suggested moving the call over to Google Meet.
Speaking with Cointelegraph, Li said he believed the live shots used in the video call were taken from past recordings of real team members.
“It didn’t seem AI-generated. The quality looked like what a typical webcam quality looks like.”
AI tokens, memecoins dominate crypto narratives in Q1 2025: CoinGecko
The cryptocurrency market is still recycling old narratives, with few new trends yet to emerge and replace the leading themes in the first quarter of 2025.
Artificial intelligence tokens and memecoins were the dominant crypto narratives in the first quarter of 2025, accounting for 62.8% of investor interest, according to a quarterly research report by CoinGecko. AI tokens captured 35.7% of global investor interest, overtaking the 27.1% share of memecoins, which remained in second place.
Out of the top 20 crypto narratives of the quarter, six were memecoin categories while five were AI-related.
“Seems like we have yet to see another new narrative emerge and we are still following past quarters’ trends,” said Bobby Ong, the co-founder and chief operating officer of CoinGecko, in an April 17 X post. “I guess we are all tired from the same old trends repeating themselves.”
Crypto lending down 43% from 2021 highs, DeFi borrowing surges 959%
The crypto lending market’s size remains significantly down from its $64 billion high, but decentralized finance (DeFi) borrowing has made a more than 900% recovery from bear market lows.
Crypto lending enables borrowers to use their crypto holdings as collateral to obtain crypto or fiat loans, while lenders can use their holdings to generate interest.
The crypto lending market was down over 43%, from its all-time high of $64.4 billion in 2021 to $36.5 billion at the end of the fourth quarter of 2024, according to a Galaxy Digital research report published on April 14.
“The decline can be attributed to the decimation of lenders on the supply side and funds, individuals, and corporate entities on the demand side,” according to Zack Pokorny, research associate at Galaxy Digital.
The decline in the crypto lending market started in 2022 when centralized finance (CeFi) lenders Genesis, Celsius Network, BlockFi and Voyager filed for bankruptcy within two years as crypto valuations fell.
Their collective downfall led to an estimated 78% collapse in the size of the lending market, with CeFi lending losing 82% of its open borrows, according to the report.
DeFi market overview
According to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView, most of the 100 largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization ended the week in the green.
Decentralized exchange (DEX) Raydium’s (RAY) token rose over 26% as the week’s biggest gainer, followed by the AB blockchain (AB) utility token, up over 19% on the weekly chart.
Thanks for reading our summary of this week’s most impactful DeFi developments. Join us next Friday for more stories, insights and education regarding this dynamically advancing space.
Tokenized stocks are on track to exceed $1 trillion in market capitalization in the coming years as adoption accelerates, two industry executives said at the TokenizeThis conference in New York.
The total addressable market for tokenized stocks — a type of tokenized real-world asset (RWA) — is difficult to project but is “definitely a bigger trillion-dollar market,” Arnab Naskar, STOKR’s CEO, said during an April 16 panel at the event.
In 2025, demand for the instruments has “exploded” from institutions ranging from Web3 wallets to neobanks to traditional financial services firms, according to Anna Wroblewska, Dinari’s Chief Business Officer.
“We’ve had an enormous influx of demand from a much broader scope of potential partners than you might even imagine […] it’s actually been really interesting,” Wroblewska said.
Related: Tokenization can transform US markets if Trump clears the way
Small but growing market share
As of April 18, tokenized stocks comprise around $350 million in cumulative market capitalization, according to data from RWA.xyz.
This represents only a sliver of the total RWA market, which is worth upward of $18 billion, the data shows.
But this could change as tokenized stocks capture a growing share of the US equities market, Wroblewska said. The US stock market has an aggregate value of more than $50 trillion, according to Siblis Research.
There is a “huge appetite for US public equities… even individual investors globally want exposure to US capital markets. Tokenization makes it fast and cheap,” Wroblewska said.
She added that tokenized US Treasury Bills are already in high demand for similar reasons. They currently comprise nearly $6 billion in total market cap, RWA.xyz data shows.
Meanwhile, Coinbase is considering making tokenized shares of its stock available on Base, its Ethereum layer-2 network.
Collectively, tokenized RWAs represent a $30 trillion market opportunity globally, Colin Butler, Movement Labs’ global head of institutional capital, told Cointelegraph in an August interview.
“Tokenization will become a mirror of the market. If the user experience is better, faster, and cheaper, people will default to tokenized assets,” Wroblewska said.
Magazine: SEC’s U-turn on crypto leaves key questions unanswered
Federal prosecutors said they will continue pursuing their case against Braden John Karony, the former CEO of crypto firm SafeMoon, despite the US Justice Department issuing a memo suggesting a policy of abandoning “regulation by prosecution” related to digital assets.
In an April 18 filing in the US District Court for the Eastern District of New York, US Attorney for EDNY John Durham said his office had reviewed the April 7 DOJ memo issued by Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche and intended to proceed with a trial against Karony.
The former SafeMoon CEO faces securities fraud conspiracy, wire fraud conspiracy, and money laundering conspiracy charges for allegedly “divert[ing] and misappropriat[ing] millions of dollars’ worth” of the platform’s SFM token between 2021 and 2022.
Karony, initially indicted in October 2023 under former US Attorney for EDNY Breon Peace, argued in February that his criminal trial should be delayed, hinting that securities laws enforcement under the Donald Trump presidency could see “significant changes.” The judge denied the motion and later ordered jury selection for the trial to begin on May 5.
However, Karony’s legal team made its claims about securities laws under Trump potentially undergoing “policy changes” before the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) dismissed cases and dropped investigations into many crypto firms facing allegations of violating securities laws. Blanche’s April 7 memo also suggested that the DOJ under Trump would direct jurisdictions not to pursue many crypto enforcement cases.
Related: Democrats slam DOJ’s ‘grave mistake’ in disbanding crypto crime unit
“[T]he parties may learn within days or hours of the commencement of trial that DOJ no longer considers digital assets like SafeMoon to be ‘securities’ under the securities laws,” said Karony’s legal team on Feb. 5. “Worse, the parties may learn this during or shortly after a trial, half of whose charges rest on the government’s claim that SafeMoon is such a security.”
Crypto enforcement by the SEC and DOJ under Trump
Since being appointed acting SEC chair by Trump in January, Mark Uyeda has led the agency to drop cases against Ripple Labs, Coinbase, Kraken, and others. The SEC has also launched a crypto task force headed by Commissioner Hester Peirce to explore a regulatory framework for digital assets, and issued a memo saying memecoins were not securities.
The agency’s actions suggest a more permissive approach to digital assets than that under former chair Gary Gensler.
“By directing the SEC to abdicate its critical mission of investor protection, Mr. Trump is unnecessarily endangering our financial system,” said former SEC official John Reed Stark in an April 18 New York Times op-ed with Duke University lecturing fellow Lee Reiners. “Whether he is doing so to keep his promise to crypto-donors or in a zeal to cash in (or perhaps even both), that is a troubling development not just for investors and banks, but for all of us.”
Whether Trump’s appointees in the Justice Department intend to step in and move to halt Karony’s case, as the DOJ did in the corruption case with New York City Mayor Eric Adams, is unclear. At the time of publication, the former SafeMoon CEO was set to go to trial in May and has been free on a $3 million bond since February 2024. He has pleaded not guilty to all charges.
Magazine: SEC’s U-turn on crypto leaves key questions unanswered
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