It’s the inflation, stupid: Why a ‘vibecession’ is hurting Biden – despite an economy which is the envy of Europe
In the circumstances, the numbers could hardly look much better.
A year or two ago, the conventional wisdom was that America was facing a terrific recession.
Instead, according to the latest data from the International Monetary Fund, the US has outperformed pretty much every other major economy in the world (including China).
In its latest World Economic Outlook report – the most closely-watched set of international forecasts – it upgraded the US more than nearly every other major economy.
From a European perspective, there is much to be jealous of about America’s recent performance (most European nations, including the UK, saw the IMF downgrade their growth forecasts).
Yet here’s the puzzle. Despite this comparatively strong economy, despite having seen a lower peak in inflation than most European nations (especially the UK), American consumer confidence remains in the doldrums.
It’s not just Europeans who find this perplexing. So too does the White House.
The White House worries it’s not getting credit for the strength of the economy with voters. Pic: Reuters
They pumped cash into the manufacturing sector at the very moment it needed it, via a series of expensive programmes including the CHIPS Act (to bring semiconductor manufacturing back home) and the Inflation Reduction Act (to encourage green technology firms to set up factories in the US).
The idea was that from the depths of the pandemic, America would “build back better” – that Biden would emulate Franklin D Roosevelt and his New Deal of the 1930s.
And most conventional statistics suggest that strategy is bearing fruit. Manufacturing employment is rising; factories are being constructed at the fastest rate in modern history. And gross domestic product – the most comprehensive measure of output – is rising. Unlike in the UK or Germany, there was no recession.
So why, then, is consumer confidence so weak? Why are Biden’s approval ratings – the key polling benchmark for the US leader – lower than pretty much any of his predecessors at this stage in their terms?
Travel around Pennsylvania, as we have done over the past few days, and you encounter all sorts of explanations.
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It’s the inflation, stupid
Food banks are getting busier; and while some businesses are beginning to see that federal money trickling down, many of the programmes are still at the approval stage. The money hasn’t arrived yet.
But, above all else, you hear one recurrent answer: it’s the cost of living. It’s food prices, it’s gas prices, it’s rents.
And there’s also a big gap here between life through an economic prism and the life lived on Main Street in places like Bethlehem PA – an old steel town trying to reinvigorate its economy.
Talk to an economist and they’ll remind you that inflation – the rate at which prices are changing over the past year – is finally beginning to drop. But while this is statistically true, it misses a couple of pragmatic realities.
First, prices aren’t going down; they’re just rising a bit less quickly than they were before. The squeeze hasn’t gone away.
Second, while economists often fixate on the change in the consumer price index over the past year (3.5% in March), what the rest of the population notices is the change in prices over a longer period.
Over the past two years prices are up around 9%. Over three years, they’re up 18%.
In other words, the explanation for the “vibecesssion”, as economists have christened it (there’s no formal recession but the vibes feel bad), might actually be exceptionally simple: It’s the inflation, stupid.
Summing up what voters care about, an adviser to Bill Clinton once said ‘it’s the economy, stupid’ during a 1990s US election race. Pic: Reuters
In Pennsylvania, perhaps the most critical of all the swing states in the US, the question is whether Donald Trump can capitalise on this disaffection to win over the citizens who abandoned him last time around.
In the meantime, the Biden White House is biding its time, hoping that those New Deal economic textbooks they followed when pumping cash into the economy are really to be trusted.
Budget fears and unseasonably warm weather led to consumers spending far less than expected last month, according to official figures.
In a sign of a slowing economy, retail sales fell a sharp 0.7%, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said.
The fall was larger than expected. A drop of 0.3% was forecasted by economists polled by the Reuters news agency.
Money blog: Energy bills to rise in January
Clothing stores were particularly affected, where sales fell by 3.1% over the month as October temperatures remained high, putting shoppers off winter purchases.
Retailers across the board, however, reported consumers held back on spending ahead of the budget, the ONS added.
Just a month earlier, in September, spending rose by 0.1%.
Despite the October fall, the ONS pointed out that the trend is for sales increases on a yearly and three-monthly basis and for them to be lower than before the COVID-19 pandemic.
Retail sales figures are significant as household consumption measured by the data is the largest expenditure across the UK economy.
The data can also help track how consumers feel about their financial position and the economy more broadly.
Another signal of a slowing economy was the latest growth figures which showed a smaller-than-expected GDP (gross domestic product) measurement.
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Business owners worried after budget
Consumer confidence could be bouncing back
Also released on Friday was news of a rise in consumer confidence in the weeks following the budget and the US election.
Market research company GfK’s long-running consumer confidence index “jumped” in November, the company said, as people intended to make Black Friday purchases.
It noted that inflation has yet to be tamed with people still feeling acute cost-of-living pressures.
It will take time for the UK’s new government to deliver on its promise of change, it added.
A quirk in the figures
Economic research firm Pantheon Macro said the dates included in the ONS’s retail sales figures could have distorted the headline figure.
The half-term break, during which spending typically increases, was excluded from the monthly statistics as the cut-off point was 26 October.
With cold weather gripping the UK this week clothing sales are likely to rise as delayed winter clothing purchases are made, Pantheon added.
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