In the circumstances, the numbers could hardly look much better.
A year or two ago, the conventional wisdom was that America was facing a terrific recession.
Instead, according to the latest data from the International Monetary Fund, the US has outperformed pretty much every other major economy in the world (including China).
In its latest World Economic Outlook report – the most closely-watched set of international forecasts – it upgraded the US more than nearly every other major economy.
From a European perspective, there is much to be jealous of about America’s recent performance (most European nations, including the UK, saw the IMF downgrade their growth forecasts).
Yet here’s the puzzle. Despite this comparatively strong economy, despite having seen a lower peak in inflation than most European nations (especially the UK), American consumer confidence remains in the doldrums.
It’s not just Europeans who find this perplexing. So too does the White House.
They pumped cash into the manufacturing sector at the very moment it needed it, via a series of expensive programmes including the CHIPS Act (to bring semiconductor manufacturing back home) and the Inflation Reduction Act (to encourage green technology firms to set up factories in the US).
The idea was that from the depths of the pandemic, America would “build back better” – that Biden would emulate Franklin D Roosevelt and his New Deal of the 1930s.
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And most conventional statistics suggest that strategy is bearing fruit. Manufacturing employment is rising; factories are being constructed at the fastest rate in modern history. And gross domestic product – the most comprehensive measure of output – is rising. Unlike in the UK or Germany, there was no recession.
So why, then, is consumer confidence so weak? Why are Biden’s approval ratings – the key polling benchmark for the US leader – lower than pretty much any of his predecessors at this stage in their terms?
Travel around Pennsylvania, as we have done over the past few days, and you encounter all sorts of explanations.
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Food banks are getting busier; and while some businesses are beginning to see that federal money trickling down, many of the programmes are still at the approval stage. The money hasn’t arrived yet.
But, above all else, you hear one recurrent answer: it’s the cost of living. It’s food prices, it’s gas prices, it’s rents.
And there’s also a big gap here between life through an economic prism and the life lived on Main Street in places like Bethlehem PA – an old steel town trying to reinvigorate its economy.
Talk to an economist and they’ll remind you that inflation – the rate at which prices are changing over the past year – is finally beginning to drop. But while this is statistically true, it misses a couple of pragmatic realities.
First, prices aren’t going down; they’re just rising a bit less quickly than they were before. The squeeze hasn’t gone away.
Second, while economists often fixate on the change in the consumer price index over the past year (3.5% in March), what the rest of the population notices is the change in prices over a longer period.
Over the past two years prices are up around 9%. Over three years, they’re up 18%.
In other words, the explanation for the “vibecesssion”, as economists have christened it (there’s no formal recession but the vibes feel bad), might actually be exceptionally simple: It’s the inflation, stupid.
In Pennsylvania, perhaps the most critical of all the swing states in the US, the question is whether Donald Trump can capitalise on this disaffection to win over the citizens who abandoned him last time around.
In the meantime, the Biden White House is biding its time, hoping that those New Deal economic textbooks they followed when pumping cash into the economy are really to be trusted.
The weakened pound has boosted many of the 100 companies forming the top-flight index.
Why is this happening?
Most are not based in the UK, so a less valuable pound means their sterling-priced shares are cheaper to buy for people using other currencies, typically US dollars.
This makes the shares better value, prompting more to be bought. This greater demand has brought up the prices and the FTSE 100.
The pound has been hovering below $1.22 for much of Friday. It’s steadily fallen from being worth $1.34 in late September.
Also spurring the new record are market expectations for more interest rate cuts in 2025, something which would make borrowing cheaper and likely kickstart spending.
What is the FTSE 100?
The index is made up of many mining and international oil and gas companies, as well as household name UK banks and supermarkets.
Familiar to a UK audience are lenders such as Barclays, Natwest, HSBC and Lloyds and supermarket chains Tesco, Marks & Spencer and Sainsbury’s.
Other well-known names include Rolls-Royce, Unilever, easyJet, BT Group and Next.
If a company’s share price drops significantly it can slip outside of the FTSE 100 and into the larger and more UK-based FTSE 250 index.
The inverse works for the FTSE 250 companies, the 101st to 250th most valuable firms on the London Stock Exchange. If their share price rises significantly they could move into the FTSE 100.
A good close for markets
It’s a good end of the week for markets, entirely reversing the rise in borrowing costs that plagued Chancellor Rachel Reeves for the past ten days.
Fears of long-lasting high borrowing costs drove speculation she would have to cut spending to meet self-imposed fiscal rules to balance the budget and bring down debt by 2030.
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3:18
They Treasury tries to calm market nerves late last week
Long-term government borrowing had reached a high not seen since 1998 while the benchmark 10-year cost of government borrowing, as measured by 10-year gilt yields, was at levels last seen around the 2008 financial crisis.
The gilt yield is effectively the interest rate investors demand to lend money to the UK government.
Only the pound has yet to recover the losses incurred during the market turbulence. Without that dropped price, however, the FTSE 100 record may not have happened.
Also acting to reduce sterling value is the chance of more interest rates. Currencies tend to weaken when interest rates are cut.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned against the prospects of a renewed US-led trade war, just days before Donald Trump prepares to begin his second term in the White House.
The world’s lender of last resort used the latest update to its World Economic Outlook (WEO) to lay out a series of consequences for the global outlook in the event Mr Trump carries out his threat to impose tariffs on all imports into the United States.
Canada, Mexico, and China have been singled out for steeper tariffs that could be announced within hours of Monday’s inauguration.
Mr Trump has been clear he plans to pick up where he left off in 2021 by taxing goods coming into the country, making them more expensive, in a bid to protect US industry and jobs.
He has denied reports that a plan for universal tariffs is set to be watered down, with bond markets recently reflecting higher domestic inflation risks this year as a result.
While not calling out Mr Trump explicitly, the key passage in the IMF’s report nevertheless cautioned: “An intensification of protectionist policies… in the form of a new wave of tariffs, could exacerbate trade tensions, lower investment, reduce market efficiency, distort trade flows, and again disrupt supply chains.
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1:05
Trump’s threat of tariffs explained
“Growth could suffer in both the near and medium term, but at varying degrees across economies.”
In Europe, the EU has reason to be particularly worried about the prospect of tariffs, as the bulk of its trade with the US is in goods.
The majority of the UK’s exports are in services rather than physical products.
The IMF’s report also suggested that the US would likely suffer the least in the event that a new wave of tariffs was enacted due to underlying strengths in the world’s largest economy.
The WEO contained a small upgrade to the UK growth forecast for 2025.
It saw output growth of 1.6% this year – an increase on the 1.5% figure it predicted in October.
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4:45
What has Trump done since winning?
Economists see public sector investment by the Labour government providing a boost to growth but a more uncertain path for contributions from the private sector given the budget’s £25bn tax raid on businesses.
Business lobby groups have widely warned of a hit to investment, pay and jobs from April as a result, while major employers, such as retailers, have been most explicit on raising prices to recover some of the hit.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves said of the IMF’s update: “The UK is forecast to be the fastest growing major European economy over the next two years and the only G7 economy, apart from the US, to have its growth forecast upgraded for this year.
“I will go further and faster in my mission for growth through intelligent investment and relentless reform, and deliver on our promise to improve living standards in every part of the UK through the Plan for Change.”
A week of news showing the UK economy is slowing has ironically yielded a positive for mortgage holders and the broader economy itself – borrowing is now expected to become cheaper faster this year.
Traders are now pricing in three interest rate cuts in 2025, according to data from the London Stock Exchange Group.
Earlier this week just two cuts were anticipated. But this changed with the release of new official statistics on contracting retail sales in the crucial Christmas trading month of December.
It firmed up the picture of a slowing economy as shrunken retail sales raise the risk of a small GDP fall during the quarter.
That would mean six months of no economic growth in the second half of 2024, a period that coincides with the tenure of the Labour government, despite its number one priority being economic growth.
Clearer signs of a slackening economy mean an expectation the Bank of England will bring the borrowing cost down by reducing interest rates by 0.25 percentage points at three of their eight meetings in 2025.
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1:07
How pints helped bring down inflation
If expectations prove correct by the end of the year the interest rate will be 4%, down from the current 4.75%. Those cuts are forecast to come at the June and September meetings of the Bank’s interest rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).
The benefits, however, will not take a year to kick in. Interest rate expectations can filter down to mortgage products on offer.
Despite the Bank of England bringing down the interest rate in November to below 5% the typical mortgage rate on offer for a two-year deal has been around 5.5% since December while the five-year hovered at about 5.3%, according to financial information company Moneyfacts.
The market has come more in line with statements from one of the Bank’s rate-setting MPC members. Professor Alan Taylor on Wednesday made the case for four cuts in 2025.
His comments came after news of lower-than-expected inflation but before GDP data – the standard measure of an economy’s value and everything it produces – came in below forecasts after two months of contraction.
News of more cuts has boosted markets.
The cost of government borrowing came down, ending a bad run for Chancellor Rachel Reeves and the government.
State borrowing costs had risen to decade-long highs putting their handling of the economy under the microscope.
The prospect of more interest rate cuts also contributed to the benchmark UK stock index the FTSE 100 reaching a new intraday high, meaning a level never before seen during trading hours. A depressed pound below $1.22, also contributed to this rise.
Similarly, falling US government borrowing has reduced UK borrowing costs after US inflation figures came in as anticipated.