NHL playoff watch: How the final wild card can be won Tuesday
A certain sequence of events had to happen on Monday night for four teams to remain in the running for the second Eastern wild card — and that sequence of events occurred.
So where do things stand heading into Tuesday? It’s a little complicated! But here is the path to the postseason for the Washington Capitals (89 points), Detroit Red Wings (89), Pittsburgh Penguins (88) and Philadelphia Flyers (87).
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The Capitals control their own destiny. A win over the Flyers (7 p.m. ET, NHL Power Play on ESPN+) would give them 91 points, and they hold the regulation wins tiebreaker over the Red Wings, the only other club of these four that can get to 91.
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Detroit’s path includes a win over the Montreal Canadiens (7 p.m. ET, NHL Power Play on ESPN+) and a loss of some variety for the Capitals (either regulation or in overtime/shootout). The Wings lose the RW tiebreaker to any of the remaining four teams.
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The max total for the Penguins is 90, but if they finish tied with the Caps and Wings at that total (or at 89, with an OT/SO loss in their final game), they are in thanks to the RW tiebreaker. Accordingly, they are fans of the Canadiens and Flyers (yikes) on Tuesday night. Game No. 82 for Pittsburgh is Wednesday against the New York Islanders, who have clinched the No. 3 spot in the Metro Division.
The Flyers can get in, but it is complicated.
Philly must beat Washington in regulation, and the Wings and Penguins must lose their games in regulation. This gives the Flyers, Caps and Wings all 89 points, and the Penguins 88. The Wings are out due to the RW tiebreaker, and the Caps and Flyers go to a fifth tiebreaker:
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Regulation wins: Tied 31-31 in this scenario
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Regulation wins plus OT wins: Tied 35-35
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Total wins: Tied 39-39
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Head-to-head points: (they did not play an even number of games: with one or more of the other tied clubs, the first game played in the city that has the extra game shall not be included) Tied 2-2
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Greater goal differential: Philly is ahead -25 to -38
Got all that? Tuesday night should be another wild one, with the Atlantic Division title on the line as well, and the Vancouver Canucks looking to close things out in the Pacific.
Note: Playoff chances are via Stathletes.
Jump ahead:
Current playoff matchups
Tuesday’s schedule
Monday’s scores
Expanded standings
Race for No. 1 pick
Current playoff matchups
Eastern Conference
A1 Boston Bruins vs. WC1 Tampa Bay Lightning
A2 Florida Panthers vs. A3 Toronto Maple Leafs
M1 New York Rangers vs. WC2 Washington Capitals
M2 Carolina Hurricanes vs. M3 New York Islanders
Western Conference
C1 Dallas Stars vs. WC2 Vegas Golden Knights
C2 Winnipeg Jets vs. C3 Colorado Avalanche
P1 Vancouver Canucks vs. WC1 Nashville Predators
P2 Edmonton Oilers vs. P3 Los Angeles Kings
Tuesday’s games
Note: All times ET. All games not on TNT or NHL Network are available via NHL Power Play, which is included in an ESPN+ subscription (local blackout restrictions apply).
Ottawa Senators at Boston Bruins, 7 p.m.
Detroit Red Wings at Montreal Canadiens, 7 p.m.
Washington Capitals at Philadelphia Flyers, 7 p.m.
Carolina Hurricanes at Columbus Blue Jackets, 7 p.m.
Toronto Maple Leafs at Florida Panthers, 7:30 p.m. (ESPN)
Seattle Kraken at Winnipeg Jets, 8 p.m.
Chicago Blackhawks at Vegas Golden Knights, 10 p.m. (ESPN+/Hulu)
Calgary Flames at Vancouver Canucks, 10 p.m. (ESPN+/Hulu)
Monday’s scoreboard
Detroit Red Wings 5, Montreal Canadiens 4 (OT)
Buffalo Sabres 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 2
New York Islanders 4, New Jersey Devils 1
Pittsburgh Penguins 4, Nashville Predators 2
Washington Capitals 2, Boston Bruins 0
New York Rangers 4, Ottawa Senators 0
Edmonton Oilers 9, San Jose Sharks 2
Minnesota Wild 3, Los Angeles Kings 1
Expanded standings
Atlantic Division
Points: 109
Regulation wins: 36
Playoff position: A1
Games left: 1
Points pace: 110
Next game: vs. OTT (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 108
Regulation wins: 41
Playoff position: A2
Games left: 1
Points pace: 109
Next game: vs. TOR (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 102
Regulation wins: 33
Playoff position: A3
Games left: 2
Points pace: 105
Next game: @ FLA (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 96
Regulation wins: 36
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 1
Points pace: 97
Next game: vs. TOR (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 89
Regulation wins: 27
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 1
Points pace: 90
Next game: @ MTL (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 65.7%
Tragic number: 2
Points: 84
Regulation wins: 33
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 0
Points pace: 84
Next game: N/A
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E
Points: 76
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 1
Points pace: 77
Next game: @ BOS (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E
Points: 75
Regulation wins: 20
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 1
Points pace: 76
Next game: vs. DET (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E
Metropolitan Division
Points: 114
Regulation wins: 43
Playoff position: M1
Games left: 0
Points pace: 114
Next game: N/A
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 111
Regulation wins: 44
Playoff position: M2
Games left: 1
Points pace: 112
Next game: @ CBJ (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 92
Regulation wins: 28
Playoff position: M3
Games left: 1
Points pace: 93
Next game: vs. PIT (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 89
Regulation wins: 31
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 1
Points pace: 90
Next game: @ PHI (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 21.6%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 88
Regulation wins: 32
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 1
Points pace: 89
Next game: @ NYI (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 11.7%
Tragic number: 1
Points: 87
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 1
Points pace: 88
Next game: vs. WSH (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 6.4%
Tragic number: 1
Points: 81
Regulation wins: 33
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 0
Points pace: 81
Next game: N/A
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E
Points: 64
Regulation wins: 20
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 1
Points pace: 65
Next game: vs. CAR (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E
Central Division
Points: 111
Regulation wins: 40
Playoff position: C1
Games left: 1
Points pace: 112
Next game: vs. STL (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 106
Regulation wins: 44
Playoff position: C2
Games left: 2
Points pace: 109
Next game: vs. SEA (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 105
Regulation wins: 41
Playoff position: C3
Games left: 1
Points pace: 106
Next game: vs. EDM (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 99
Regulation wins: 38
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 0
Points pace: 99
Next game: N/A
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 91
Regulation wins: 31
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 1
Points pace: 92
Next game: @ DAL (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E
Points: 87
Regulation wins: 32
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 1
Points pace: 88
Next game: vs. SEA (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E
Points: 75
Regulation wins: 27
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 1
Points pace: 76
Next game: vs. EDM (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E
Points: 51
Regulation wins: 17
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 2
Points pace: 52
Next game: @ VGK (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E
Pacific Division
Points: 107
Regulation wins: 43
Playoff position: P1
Games left: 2
Points pace: 110
Next game: vs. CGY (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 104
Regulation wins: 39
Playoff position: P2
Games left: 2
Points pace: 107
Next game: @ ARI (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 97
Regulation wins: 37
Playoff position: P3
Games left: 1
Points pace: 98
Next game: vs. CHI (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 96
Regulation wins: 33
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 2
Points pace: 98
Next game: vs. CHI (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 79
Regulation wins: 31
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 2
Points pace: 81
Next game: @ VAN (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E
Points: 79
Regulation wins: 27
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 2
Points pace: 81
Next game: @ WPG (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E
Points: 57
Regulation wins: 20
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 1
Points pace: 58
Next game: @ VGK (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E
Points: 47
Regulation wins: 14
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 1
Points pace: 48
Next game: @ CGY (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E
p — clinched Presidents’ Trophy
y — clinched division
x — clinched playoff berth
e — eliminated from playoff contention
Race for the No. 1 pick
The NHL uses a draft lottery to determine the order of the first round, so the team that finishes in last place is not guaranteed the No. 1 selection. As of 2021, a team can move up a maximum of 10 spots if it wins the lottery, so only 11 teams are eligible for the draw for the No. 1 pick. Full details on the process can be found here. Sitting No. 1 on the draft board for this summer is Macklin Celebrini, a freshman at Boston University.
Points: 47
Regulation wins: 14
Points: 51
Regulation wins: 17
Points: 57
Regulation wins: 20
Points: 64
Regulation wins: 20
Points: 75
Regulation wins: 20
Points: 75
Regulation wins: 27
Points: 76
Regulation wins: 24
Points: 79
Regulation wins: 27
Points: 79
Regulation wins: 31
Points: 81
Regulation wins: 33
Points: 84
Regulation wins: 33
Points: 87
Regulation wins: 30
Points: 87
Regulation wins: 32
Points: 88
Regulation wins: 32
Points: 89
Regulation wins: 27
Points: 91
Regulation wins: 31
* The Penguins’ first-round pick was traded to the Sharks as part of the Erik Karlsson trade. However, it is top-10 protected.
The 2025 MLB All-Star Home Run Derby is fast approaching — and the field is set.
Braves hometown hero Ronald Acuna Jr. became the first player to commit to the event, which will be held at Truist Park in Atlanta on July 14 (8 p.m. ET on ESPN). He was followed by MLB home run leader Cal Raleigh of the Seattle Mariners, James Wood of the Washington Nationals, Byron Buxton of the Minnesota Twins, Oneil Cruz of the Pittsburgh Pirates, Junior Caminero of the Tampa Bay Rays, Brent Rooker of the Athletics and Jazz Chisholm Jr. of the New York Yankees.
On Friday, however, Acuna was replaced by teammate Matt Olson.
With all the entrants announced, let’s break down their chances at taking home this year’s Derby prize.
Full All-Star Game coverage: How to watch, schedule, rosters, more
2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 434 feet
Why he could win: Olson is a late replacement for Acuna as the home team’s representative at this year’s Derby. Apart from being the Braves’ first baseman, however, Olson also was born in Atlanta and grew up a Braves fan, giving him some extra motivation. The left-handed slugger led the majors in home runs in 2023 — his 54 round-trippers that season also set a franchise record — and he remains among the best in the game when it comes to exit velo and hard-hit rate.
Why he might not: The home-field advantage can also be a detriment if a player gets too hyped up in the first round. See Julio Rodriguez in Seattle in 2023, when he had a monster first round, with 41 home runs, but then tired out in the second round.
2025 home runs: 36 | Longest: 440 feet
Why he could win: It’s the season of Cal! The Mariners’ catcher is having one of the greatest slugging first halves in MLB history, as he’s been crushing mistakes all season . His easy raw power might be tailor-made for the Derby — he ranks in the 87th percentile in average exit velocity and delivers the ball, on average, at the optimal home run launch angle of 23 degrees. His calm demeanor might also be perfect for the contest as he won’t get too amped up.
Why he might not: He’s a catcher — and one who has carried a heavy workload, playing in all but one game this season. This contest is as much about stamina as anything, and whether Raleigh can carry his power through three rounds would be a concern. No catcher has ever won the Derby, with only Ivan Rodriguez back in 2005 even reaching the finals.
2025 home runs: 24 | Longest: 451 feet
Why he could win: He’s big, he’s strong, he’s young, he’s awesome, he might or might not be able to leap tall buildings in a single bound. This is the perfect opportunity for Wood to show his talent on the national stage, and he wouldn’t be the first young player to star in the Derby. He ranks in the 97th percentile in average exit velocity and 99th percentile in hard-hit rate, so he can still muscle the ball out in BP even if he slightly mishits it. His long arms might be viewed as a detriment, but remember the similarly tall Aaron Judge won in 2017.
Why he might not: His natural swing isn’t a pure uppercut — he has a pretty low average launch angle of just 6.2 degrees — so we’ll see how that plays in a rapid-fire session. In real games, his power is primarily to the opposite field, but in a Home Run Derby you can get more cheapies pulling the ball down the line.
2025 home runs: 20 | Longest: 479 feet
Why he could win: Buxton’s raw power remains as impressive as nearly any hitter in the game. He crushed a 479-foot home run earlier this season and has four others of at least 425 feet. Indeed, his “no doubter” percentage — home runs that would be out of all 30 parks based on distance — is 75%, the highest in the majors among players with more than a dozen home runs. His bat speed ranks in the 89th percentile. In other words, two tools that could translate to a BP lightning show.
Why he might not: Buxton is 31 and the Home Run Derby feels a little more like a younger man’s competition. Teoscar Hernandez did win last year at age 31, but before that, the last winner older than 29 was David Ortiz in 2010, and that was under much different rules than are used now.
2025 home runs: 16 | Longest: 463 feet
Why he could win: If you drew up a short list of players everyone wants to see in the Home Run Derby, Cruz would be near the top. He has the hardest-hit ball of the 2025 season, and the hardest ever tracked by Statcast, a 432-foot missile of a home run with an exit velocity of 122.9 mph. He also crushed a 463-foot home run in Anaheim that soared way beyond the trees in center field. With his elite bat speed — 100th percentile — Cruz has the ability to awe the crowd with a potentially all-time performance.
Why he might not: Like all first-time contestants, can he stay within himself and not get too caught up in the moment? He has a long swing, which will result in some huge blasts, but might not be the most efficient for a contest like this one, where the more swings a hitter can get in before the clock expires, the better.
2025 home runs: 23 | Longest: 425 feet
Why he could win: Although Caminero was one of the most hyped prospects entering 2024, everyone kind of forgot about him heading into this season since he didn’t immediately rip apart the majors as a rookie. In his first full season, however, he has showed off his big-time raw power — giving him a chance to become just the third player to reach 40 home runs in his age-21 season. He has perhaps the quickest bat in the majors, ranking in the 100th percentile in bat speed, and his top exit velocity ranks in the top 15. That could translate to a barrage of home runs.
Why he might not: In game action, Caminero does hit the ball on the ground quite often — in fact, he’s on pace to break Jim Rice’s record for double plays grounded into in a season. If he gets out of rhythm, that could lead to a lot of low line drives during the Derby instead of fly balls that clear the fences.
2025 home runs: 19 | Longest: 440 feet
Why he could win: The Athletics slugger has been one of the top power hitters in the majors for three seasons now and is on his way to a third straight 30-homer season. Rooker has plus bat speed and raw power, but his biggest strength is an optimal average launch angle (19 degrees in 2024, 15 degrees this season) that translates to home runs in game action. That natural swing could be picture perfect for the Home Run Derby. He also wasn’t shy about saying he wanted to participate — and maybe that bodes well for his chances.
Why he might not: Rooker might not have quite the same raw power as some of the other competitors, as he has just one home run longer than 425 feet in 2025. But that’s a little nitpicky, as 11 of his home runs have still gone 400-plus feet. He competed in the college home run derby in Omaha while at Mississippi State in 2016 and finished fourth.
2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 442 feet
Why he could win: Chisholm might not be the most obvious name to participate, given his career high of 24 home runs, but he has belted 17 already in 2025 in his first 61 games after missing some time with an injury. He ranks among the MLB leaders in a couple of home run-related categories, ranking in the 96th percentile in expected slugging percentage and 98th percentile in barrel rate. His raw power might not match that of the other participants, but he’s a dead-pull hitter who has increased his launch angle this season, which might translate well to the Derby, even if he won’t be the guy hitting the longest home runs.
Why he might not: Most of the guys who have won this have been big, powerful sluggers. Chisholm is listed at 5-foot-11, 184 pounds, and you have to go back to Miguel Tejada in 2004 to find the last player under 6 foot to win.
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