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The UK economy is going to grow less than expected this year – with the International Monetary Fund warning the country will remain the second worst performer in the G7.

Newly revised forecasts indicate the UK’s gross domestic product will expand by just 0.5% in 2024 – a slight downgrade from previous estimates in January – compared with global growth of 3.2%.

However, UK GDP is tipped to increase by 1.5% in 2025 – making it the third-best performer among G7 nations – as households recover following a prolonged cost of living crisis.

According to the IMF, inflation in the British economy will remain at about 2.5% for the rest of this year but fall towards the Bank of England’s target of 2% next year.

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Bank of England governor: ‘We’re on the way’

When looked at per head – with output split across the UK’s population – GDP flatlines, with no growth at all for 2024 and 1.1% in 2025.

This metric gives a better sense of living standards and how the economy feels for individuals by adjusting for the UK’s growing population with record legal immigration flows.

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According to the IMF, the global economy has been “remarkably resilient” over the past two years – but the escalating conflict in the Middle East could push up food and energy prices around the world.

Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the IMF’s director of research, said: “Yet, despite many gloomy predictions, the world avoided a recession, the banking system proved largely resilient, and major emerging market economies did not suffer sudden stops.”

The IMF believes lower-income countries would be harder hit if food, energy and transport prices rose.

While negative risks include a slow recovery of China’s troubled property sector, economists believe the outlook could be improved if elections being held around the world lead to tax cuts and a short-term boost to activity.

Attendees walk inside an atrium at the 2022 Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank Group, Monday, Oct. 10, 2022, in Washington. (AP Photo/Patrick Semansky)
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Pic: AP

Overall, global output is expected to grow by 3.2% this year – an 0.1 percentage point rise from its previous report in January.

Both the Conservative government and Labour opposition have staked their successes on a growing economy.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak made economic growth one of his five key priorities at the start of 2023 – but the UK entered a recession late last year.

Labour is hoping more growth will allow for greater tax takes and generate money to fund increased public service spending.

It has adopted the same rules on borrowing as the Tories and said it will not grow debt.

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A HM Treasury spokesperson said: “The forecast for growth in the medium term is optimistic, but like all our peers, the UK’s growth in the short term has been impacted by higher interest rates, with Germany, France and Italy all experiencing larger downgrades than the UK.

“Today’s report shows we are winning the battle against high inflation, with the IMF forecasting that it will fall much faster than previously expected.

“With inflation falling, wages rising, and the economy turning a corner, we have been able to lower taxes for 29 million people, as part of our plan to reward work and grow the economy.”

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Chancellor admits tax rises and spending cuts considered for budget

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Chancellor admits tax rises and spending cuts considered for budget

Rachel Reeves has told Sky News she is looking at both tax rises and spending cuts in the budget, in her first interview since being briefed on the scale of the fiscal black hole she faces.

“Of course, we’re looking at tax and spending as well,” the chancellor said when asked how she would deal with the country’s economic challenges in her 26 November statement.

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Ms Reeves was shown the first draft of the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) report, revealing the size of the black hole she must fill next month, on Friday 3 October.

She has never previously publicly confirmed tax rises are on the cards in the budget, going out of her way to avoid mentioning tax in interviews two weeks ago.

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Chancellor pledges not to raise VAT

Cabinet ministers had previously indicated they did not expect future spending cuts would be used to ensure the chancellor met her fiscal rules.

Ms Reeves also responded to questions about whether the economy was in a “doom loop” of annual tax rises to fill annual black holes. She appeared to concede she is trapped in such a loop.

Asked if she could promise she won’t allow the economy to get stuck in a doom loop cycle, Ms Reeves replied: “Nobody wants that cycle to end more than I do.”

She said that is why she is trying to grow the economy, and only when pushed a third time did she suggest she “would not use those (doom loop) words” because the UK had the strongest growing economy in the G7 in the first half of this year.

What’s facing Reeves?

Ms Reeves is expected to have to find up to £30bn at the budget to balance the books, after a U-turn on winter fuel and welfare reforms and a big productivity downgrade by the OBR, which means Britain is expected to earn less in future than previously predicted.

Yesterday, the IMF upgraded UK growth projections by 0.1 percentage points to 1.3% of GDP this year – but also trimmed its forecast by 0.1% next year, also putting it at 1.3%.

The UK growth prospects are 0.4 percentage points worse off than the IMF’s projects last autumn. The 1.3% GDP growth would be the second-fastest in the G7, behind the US.

Last night, the chancellor arrived in Washington for the annual IMF and World Bank conference.

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‘I won’t duck challenges’

In her Sky News interview, Ms Reeves said multiple challenges meant there was a fresh need to balance the books.

“I was really clear during the general election campaign – and we discussed this many times – that I would always make sure the numbers add up,” she said.

“Challenges are being thrown our way – whether that is the geopolitical uncertainties, the conflicts around the world, the increased tariffs and barriers to trade. And now this (OBR) review is looking at how productive our economy has been in the past and then projecting that forward.”

She was clear that relaxing the fiscal rules (the main one being that from 2029-30, the government’s day-to-day spending needs to rely on taxation alone, not borrowing) was not an option, making tax rises all but inevitable.

“I won’t duck those challenges,” she said.

“Of course, we’re looking at tax and spending as well, but the numbers will always add up with me as chancellor because we saw just three years ago what happens when a government, where the Conservatives, lost control of the public finances: inflation and interest rates went through the roof.”

Pic: PA
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Pic: PA

Blame it on the B word?

Ms Reeves also lay responsibility for the scale of the black hole she’s facing at Brexit, along with austerity and the mini-budget.

This could risk a confrontation with the party’s own voters – one in five (19%) Leave voters backed Labour at the last election, playing a big role in assuring the party’s landslide victory.

The chancellor said: “Austerity, Brexit, and the ongoing impact of Liz Truss’s mini-budget, all of those things have weighed heavily on the UK economy.

“Already, people thought that the UK economy would be 4% smaller because of Brexit.

“Now, of course, we are undoing some of that damage by the deal that we did with the EU earlier this year on food and farming, goods moving between us and the continent, on energy and electricity trading, on an ambitious youth mobility scheme, but there is no doubting that the impact of Brexit is severe and long-lasting.”

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Crypto maturity demands systematic discipline over speculation

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Crypto maturity demands systematic discipline over speculation

Crypto maturity demands systematic discipline over speculation

Unlimited leverage and sentiment-driven valuations create cascading liquidations that wipe billions overnight. Crypto’s maturity demands systematic discipline.

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NYC mayor establishes digital assets and blockchain office

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NYC mayor establishes digital assets and blockchain office

NYC mayor establishes digital assets and blockchain office

The executive order creating the Office of Digital Assets and Blockchain Technology under the New York City government came three months before Eric Adams will leave office.

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