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The UK economy is going to grow less than expected this year – with the International Monetary Fund warning the country will remain the second worst performer in the G7.

Newly revised forecasts indicate the UK’s gross domestic product will expand by just 0.5% in 2024 – a slight downgrade from previous estimates in January – compared with global growth of 3.2%.

However, UK GDP is tipped to increase by 1.5% in 2025 – making it the third-best performer among G7 nations – as households recover following a prolonged cost of living crisis.

According to the IMF, inflation in the British economy will remain at about 2.5% for the rest of this year but fall towards the Bank of England’s target of 2% next year.

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When looked at per head – with output split across the UK’s population – GDP flatlines, with no growth at all for 2024 and 1.1% in 2025.

This metric gives a better sense of living standards and how the economy feels for individuals by adjusting for the UK’s growing population with record legal immigration flows.

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According to the IMF, the global economy has been “remarkably resilient” over the past two years – but the escalating conflict in the Middle East could push up food and energy prices around the world.

Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the IMF’s director of research, said: “Yet, despite many gloomy predictions, the world avoided a recession, the banking system proved largely resilient, and major emerging market economies did not suffer sudden stops.”

The IMF believes lower-income countries would be harder hit if food, energy and transport prices rose.

While negative risks include a slow recovery of China’s troubled property sector, economists believe the outlook could be improved if elections being held around the world lead to tax cuts and a short-term boost to activity.

Attendees walk inside an atrium at the 2022 Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank Group, Monday, Oct. 10, 2022, in Washington. (AP Photo/Patrick Semansky)
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Pic: AP

Overall, global output is expected to grow by 3.2% this year – an 0.1 percentage point rise from its previous report in January.

Both the Conservative government and Labour opposition have staked their successes on a growing economy.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak made economic growth one of his five key priorities at the start of 2023 – but the UK entered a recession late last year.

Labour is hoping more growth will allow for greater tax takes and generate money to fund increased public service spending.

It has adopted the same rules on borrowing as the Tories and said it will not grow debt.

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A HM Treasury spokesperson said: “The forecast for growth in the medium term is optimistic, but like all our peers, the UK’s growth in the short term has been impacted by higher interest rates, with Germany, France and Italy all experiencing larger downgrades than the UK.

“Today’s report shows we are winning the battle against high inflation, with the IMF forecasting that it will fall much faster than previously expected.

“With inflation falling, wages rising, and the economy turning a corner, we have been able to lower taxes for 29 million people, as part of our plan to reward work and grow the economy.”

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Crypto deregulation under Trump: Promises vs reality

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Crypto deregulation under Trump: Promises vs reality

The incoming US president will have the authority to enact many policies favorable to crypto users after taking office next week.

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Starmer says Treasury will be ‘ruthless’ in cutting spending amid market turmoil

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Starmer says Treasury will be 'ruthless' in cutting spending amid market turmoil

Sir Keir Starmer has said the Treasury will be “ruthless” in cutting government spending as market turbulence continues.

Responding to a question about the economic situation from Sky News’ political editor Beth Rigby, he said: “The number one mission of this government is economic growth.

“And that was run through the budget, but there’s much more that we’re doing on economic growth, pulling those levers of change.”

Both long-term 30-year and the benchmark 10-year government borrowing costs were up on Monday morning, with the 30-year effective interest rate (the gilt yield) reaching a new high of 5.47% – a rate not seen since mid-1998.

The 10-year borrowing cost reached 4.86%, below the 2008 high recorded last Thursday but at the same levels last seen around the global financial crash.

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That pushes up costs for the government, with the chancellor put in a position where she could have to break her self-imposed fiscal rules by failing to bring debt down and balance the budget.

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Sterling, which can reflect investors’ confidence in the UK and overall economic health, was also down to a low not seen since October 2023, with £1 buying $1.21.

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The dismal economic outlook has prompted warnings mortgage rates could rise in the coming weeks as lenders respond to the turmoil.

In what could be seen as further misery for the British people, the prime minister refused to rule out government spending cuts as he said the Treasury was right to be “ruthless” in cutting spending.

A spending review, due later this year, is expected to require government departments to make efficiency savings worth 5% of their budgets.

Sir Keir told a news conference: “We will be ruthless, as we have been ruthless in the decisions that we’ve taken so far.

“We’ve got clear fiscal rules, and we’re going to keep to those fiscal rules.”

He said the government had “inherited a real mess” of an economy from the Conservative government.

But, he said the government is “going to stick to the fiscal rules”.

“That is a very important thing,” he said.

“We’re determined to bring about that economic stability. And that’s why the fiscal rules are absolutely, absolutely central to what we do.”

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Sir Keir also twice avoided answering whether Rachel Reeves will still be chancellor by the next election in 2029 in the wake of the dismal economic outlook.

“Rachel Reeves is doing a fantastic job,” he said, but would not say if she would remain in post.

“She has my full confidence, she has the full confidence of the entire party.

“She took the tough decisions.”

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The Conservatives jumped on Sir Keir failing to confirm if Ms Reeves would still be in the job at the end of this parliament.

Leader Kemi Badenoch said: “The prime minister just refused to back his chancellor staying in her job.

“Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves have driven Britain’s economy into the ground. The markets are in turmoil and business confidence has crashed, yet the chancellor is nowhere to be seen.

“Labour promised stability and instead the City minister is mired in corruption investigations and the chancellor is hanging on by her fingernails.”

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Scotland’s former first minister Nicola Sturgeon splits from husband

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Scotland's former first minister Nicola Sturgeon splits from husband

Scotland’s former first minister Nicola Sturgeon has announced she has split from her husband, Peter Murrell.

Ms Sturgeon and Ms Murrell met via the SNP and first became a couple in 2003. They later married in July 2010 at Oran Mor in Glasgow.

Nicola Sturgeon with her new husband Peter Murrell following their wedding service at the Oran Mor in Glasgow in  2010.
Pic PA
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Ms Sturgeon with Mr Murrell following their wedding service at Oran Mor in Glasgow in 2010. Pic PA

File photo dated 19/11/14 of the then SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon is given a kiss by her husband Peter Murrell at the Scottish Parliament in Edinburgh, after she was voted in as First Minister of Scotland. Former first minister of Scotland Nicola Sturgeon and former SNP chief executive Peter Murrell have "decided to end" their marriage, she said in a post on social media. Issue date: Monday January 13, 2025.
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Mr Murrell giving Ms Sturgeon a kiss after she was voted in as first minister in 2014. Pic: PA

In a statement posted to Instagram stories, she wrote: “With a heavy heart I am confirming that Peter and I have decided to end our marriage.

“To all intents and purposes we have been separated for some time now and feel it is time to bring others up to speed with where we are.

“It goes without saying that we still care deeply for each other, and always will.

“We will be making no further comment.”

Nicola Sturgeon announcing the split on Instagram
Image:
Ms Sturgeon announcing the split on Instagram

Ms Sturgeon unexpectedly announced she was stepping down as Scotland’s first minister and SNP leader in February 2023 after succeeding Alex Salmond following the independence referendum in 2014.

Mr Murrell, who had been SNP chief executive since 2001, resigned from his post the following month after taking responsibility for misleading the media over party membership numbers amid the leadership race, which Humza Yousaf went on to win.

At the time, he said: “While there was no intent to mislead, I accept that this has been the outcome.”

In April 2023, Mr Murrell was arrested as part of a probe into the SNP’s funding and finances. He was later charged with embezzling SNP funds in April last year.

Ms Sturgeon and ex-party treasurer MSP Colin Beattie have also been arrested and released without charge as part of Police Scotland’s long-running Operation Branchform.

The probe, which has been ongoing since July 2021, is linked to the spending of around £600,000 raised by SNP supporters to be earmarked for Scottish independence campaigning.

Ms Sturgeon continues to deny any wrongdoing. In an interview last month, the Glasgow Southside MSP said she knew “nothing more” about the inquiry and was getting on with life “as best I can at the moment”.

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