Lebanon at a crossroads as it awaits Israel’s response to Iran – with fears growing revenge will trigger ‘bigger war’
Lebanon is balanced as though on an earthquake faultline right now – whatever Israel decides to do next will have massive repercussions throughout the entire region.
That’s how critical the situation is in Lebanon and the surrounding countries, as described by one seasoned Lebanese political analyst.
Khodor Taleb is also the former adviser to three different Lebanese prime ministers, so knows a thing or two about what is at stake.
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Lebanon – like the entire region – is at the crossroads and it is Israel in the driving seat over which road is travelled.
‘The situation will be totally out of control’
“I can tell you 100% that Hezbollah do not want war. The ball is in the Israeli court,” Mr Taleb told Sky News.
The militant group Hezbollah is backed by Iran and has strong ties with both the Iranian leadership and the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC).
It is very much seen as the strongest and most powerful of Iran’s proxies which operate in multiple countries.
It is therefore potentially in the Israeli crosshairs as it considers how or whether to retaliate against Iran and its network in response to the missile and drone attacks at the weekend.
Mr Taleb is not an isolated voice in warning that an Israeli attack could tip the region into all-out war.
“It will be a huge risk for Israel because it will lead to a big war in the region,” he said.
“It will not be limited to Lebanon. It will definitely spread to Yemen and most probably to the Syrian Golan and the situation will be totally out of control of any international power,” he continued.
“It will be damaging to the whole region.”
His point: Any large-scale Israeli attack against the Lebanese Hezbollah or Iran risks drawing the entire so-called Axis of Resistance into war – and that would involve the Yemeni Houthis, the Iraqi Hezbollah and the various Syrian militias – all of which have links to Iran or Hezbollah.
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‘Revenge will end up with a bigger war’
While Foreign Secretary Lord Cameron was in Israel urging restraint, his Lebanese counterpart was telling us how he is willing him on to succeed.
“I hope the foreign ministers in Tel Aviv or in Jerusalem, wherever they are, they succeed with them [and persuade them not to retaliate]… to take it easy, and not to start a war with Iranians,” Abdullah Bou Habib told Sky News.
“And they started it,” he added. “They were hitting Iran in many Syrian areas and Iran was not retaliating but now after you hit its consulate, you can’t stop them.”
Lebanon’s foreign minister Abdullah Bou Habib
Mr Habib issued his own dire warnings to try to avert a potentially disastrous attack by Israel.
“Any kind of revenge from Israel is going to end up with a bigger war,” he said.
He blamed the inaction by the United Nations (UN) for not definitively condemning the earlier suspected Israeli attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus – viewed as the first direct assault by Israel against Iran in more than six months of war in Gaza.
“We are very worried,” the Lebanese foreign minister said.
“We pray for a ceasefire but the UN is not moving in this direction and we are left not able to do anything.”
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Comparing Israel and Iran’s weapons
Asked whether, like Hezbollah, the Lebanese government welcomed the Iranian drone and missile attack against Israel, he responded: “We don’t welcome it nor do we denounce it.
“We are in a very difficult position because Israel started it. We really want peace – 90% of Lebanese really want peace.”
When questioned about just how much influence the Lebanese government has over Hezbollah, which has a powerful military wing believed to be stronger than the Lebanese army plus a political wing including elected MPs, the foreign minister was brutally frank.
“We don’t have influence with them [Hezbollah] in fighting over Israelis,” he admitted. “And when that happens, we support Hezbollah.”
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But he went on to focus on the nub of the issue: “And other countries… Syria, Jordan… also have problems because of what Israel is doing.
“The UN asked for a two-state solution in 1947, a long time ago, and this is the solution for all the problems in the Middle East.”
Without a two-state solution, he predicted, the Palestinians will never stop fighting.
‘Help us’
In Beirut’s Shatila refugee camp, which is filled with tens of thousands of Palestinians displaced from previous wars with Israel, there is not so much fear of retaliation as frustration at what they view as Western double standards.
Shatila refugee camp in Beirut
Many mentioned to us the lack of Western condemnation of the direct attack on diplomatic soil at the Iranian consulate in the Syrian capital – widely accepted to be the work of Israel, though the IDF has never confirmed its responsibility.
“Let them respond,” said political activist Ahed Bahar, referring to an Israeli response to Iran’s attack.
“The Israelis are only a tool of the Americans and take their orders from the US, UK and France,” he said.
Activist Ahed Bahar
The upheaval and high number of casualties in Gaza – caused by Israel’s response to Hamas’s attacks on Israel on 7 October – has drawn together not just Sunnis and Shi’ites in Lebanon but also many of the fractured political parties.
Kazem Hasan, the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO) chief in the camp, urged the British people to put more pressure on the UK government to help Palestinians.
“I tell to Britain that the struggle [in Gaza] isn’t against terrorism. It’s about Palestinian rights. We need our own state. Put right what you did wrong so many years ago and help us now.”
PLO politician Kazem Hasan
Lebanon is waiting on tenterhooks to see what unfolds over the coming hours, days and weeks.
Additional reporting from cameraman Jake Britton, specialist producer Chris Cunningham and Lebanon producer Jihad Jneid.
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Up to a million Palestinians could be ‘permanently relocated’ to war-torn Libya under US plans
Up to a million Palestinians could be permanently relocated from devastated Gaza to war-torn Libya under plans being worked on by Donald Trump’s administration, NBC News reports.
The idea has been discussed with Libya’s leadership, sources told Sky’s US partner network, and would potentially see billions of dollars in frozen Libyan funds released.
The North African country remains divided in two – nearly 14 years after the overthrow of dictator Muammar Gaddafi sparked a civil war – with two rival governments fighting for control.
It comes as Israel continues a campaign of airstrikes on Gaza, with 93 people killed and hundreds injured on Friday, according to local medics.
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Sky’s team saw bodies arrive at Gaza’s Indonesian Hospital
No final agreement on any Libya plans have been reached, sources told NBC News, and US government agencies did not respond to requests for comment from the news outlet.
Previous suggestions to resettle Palestinians from Gaza – voluntarily or otherwise – have provoked international outcry, particularly from Arab states who likely will play a role in rebuilding the enclave after any permanent ceasefire deal.
And Libya is far from a safe nation, according to the US State Department’s own travel advice, which says Americans should not travel to the country “due to crime, terrorism, unexploded landmines, civil unrest, kidnapping, and armed conflict”.
President Trump, speaking on the final day of his Middle East trip, said he was looking to resolve a range of global crises, including Gaza.
“We’re looking at Gaza,” he said. “And we’ve got to get that taken care of. A lot of people are starving. A lot of people are – there’s a lot of bad things going on.”
An Israeli tank nears the border with Gaza. Pic: Reuters
There had been hopes that his tour of the region could increase the chances of a ceasefire deal or prompt Israel to lift its blockade of Gaza that is preventing humanitarian aid from getting in.
But instead Israel has continued to launch airstrikes on the territory, killing more than 250 people in the last two days, according to Hamas-run health authorities.
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The Israeli military, which had dropped leaflets on the northern town of Beit Lahia ordering residents to leave, said their airforce had struck more than 150 military targets across Gaza in recent days.
This week, Israel said it had bombed the European Hospital because it was home to an underground Hamas base, but Sky News analysis has cast doubt on its evidence.
Israeli officials said the latest strikes were a prelude to a larger military campaign in Gaza aimed at pressuring Hamas to release hostages.
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Ahmed Abu Riziq, founder of the Gaza Great Minds Foundation, which seeks to give children access to education in Gaza, said “the hell doors opened” in the last few days.
Speaking to Sky News from Gaza City, he said: “Myself with my family, we had to flee today from some certain areas in northern Gaza City… people are running in the streets. They don’t know where to go or where to sleep at night. So it’s really catastrophic.”
“No food is entering Gaza,” he added, saying that people are dying from hunger.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said this month that Israel plans to seize all of Gaza and hold it indefinitely.
Tom Fletcher, head of the UN office for the coordination of humanitarian affairs, warned the Security Council this week it must “act now” to “prevent genocide” – a claim Israel vehemently denies.
Russia and Ukraine failed to agree to a ceasefire in their first direct talks since 2022 – as European leaders called Moscow’s approach “unacceptable” after the discussions lasted less than two hours and Vladimir Putin stayed away.
The meeting in Istanbul, Turkey, was set up at short notice on President Putin‘s behest, but he declined a challenge from Volodymyr Zelenskyy to meet him in person and instead sent relatively junior representatives.
A source in the Ukrainian team told Sky News that Russia had threatened “eternal war” during the talks.
They said the Russians were not ready to talk about technical details of a ceasefire and were waiting for superiors to approve them.
Latest updates on Istanbul talks
Turkish foreign minister Hakan Fidan chairs a meeting between Ukrainian and Russian negotiators in Istanbul. Pic: Reuters
Both countries said they had agreed to trade 1,000 prisoners of war each in what would be the biggest such exchange yet of the conflict.
But Kyiv wants the West to impose tighter sanctions unless Moscow accepts a proposal from Donald Trump for a 30-day ceasefire.
President Zelenskyy said after the meeting that he had spoken to Mr Trump by phone – alongside Sir Keir Starmer and the leaders of France, Germany and Poland – who all met in Albania on Friday.
In a post on X, he said Ukraine was “ready to take the fastest possible steps to bring real peace” and that “tough sanctions must follow” if Russia continues to resist a month-long truce.
The Ukrainian delegation. Pic: Reuters
The Russian delegation. Pic: Reuters
Frustration over Russia‘s perceived stalling in holding serious negotiations was also clear from the European leaders gathered in Tirana.
“The Russian position is clearly unacceptable, and not for the first time,” said Sir Keir.
“So as a result of that meeting with President Zelenskyy and that call with President Trump we are now closely aligning our responses and will continue to do so.”
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The talks were held in Dolmabache Palace in Istanbul. Pic: AP
The UK prime minister said the no-show by Russia’s leader was “more evidence that Putin is not serious about peace” and has “been dragging his heels”.
NATO secretary-general Mark Rutte, who was also in Albania, said President Putin had made a “big mistake” by sending low-level delegates to Istanbul.
A list of representatives ahead of the meeting listed presidential aide Vladimir Medinsky, deputy foreign minister Galuzin Mikhail Yuryevich and deputy defence chief Alexander Fomin.
Ukraine’s delegation was led by defence minister Rustem Umerov.
President Zelenskyy had called the Russian team “a theatre prop” ahead of the summit in the Dolmabahce Palace.
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Ukrainian ‘despair’ over missing civilians
However, Turkey’s foreign minister heralded it as “an important day for world peace” and said Russia and Ukraine had agreed to swap 1,000 POWs each as a “confidence-building measure”.
Hakan Fidan shared a picture of the delegations and said they had “agreed to share with the other side in writing the conditions that would make it possible to reach a ceasefire”.
Russia’s Vladimir Medinsky said his team had “taken note” of the Ukrainian request for direct talks between Mr Putin and Mr Zelenskyy.
“We have agreed that each side will present its vision of a possible future ceasefire and spell it out in detail,” said Mr Medinsky.
Hopes ahead of the meeting were low after Mr Trump and his secretary of state, Marco Rubio, played down the prospect of meaningful progress.
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Trump on meeting Putin: ‘As soon as we can set it up’
The US president told reporters on Air Force One on Thursday “nothing’s going to happen until Putin and I get together”, while Mr Rubio said a “breakthrough” was unlikely until the US and Russian presidents meet.
No date for such a meeting has been proposed, but Mr Trump has said it will happen “as soon as we can set it up”.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters that top-level talks were “certainly needed” but arranging it would take time.
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Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov was a notable absentee, despite attending Ukraine-focused talks with the US in Saudi Arabia in February.
Russia has so far failed to agree to a 30-day unconditional ceasefire – proposed by European leaders who have threatened Moscow with “massive” sanctions if it doesn’t sign up. The US also supports the plan.
The Kremlin has ambitions to keep swathes of Ukrainian land as part of any long-term truce, an idea that Kyiv firmly rejects.
Russia also wants an end to Ukraine’s NATO ambitions and a promise it will stay neutral.
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