Lebanon is balanced as though on an earthquake faultline right now – whatever Israel decides to do next will have massive repercussions throughout the entire region.
That’s how critical the situation is in Lebanon and the surrounding countries, as described by one seasoned Lebanese political analyst.
Khodor Taleb is also the former adviser to three different Lebanese prime ministers, so knows a thing or two about what is at stake.
Mr Taleb is not an isolated voice in warning that an Israeli attack could tip the region into all-out war.
“It will be a huge risk for Israel because it will lead to a big war in the region,” he said.
“It will not be limited to Lebanon. It will definitely spread to Yemen and most probably to the Syrian Golan and the situation will be totally out of control of any international power,” he continued.
“It will be damaging to the whole region.”
His point: Any large-scale Israeli attack against the Lebanese Hezbollah or Iran risks drawing the entire so-called Axis of Resistance into war – and that would involve the Yemeni Houthis, the Iraqi Hezbollah and the various Syrian militias – all of which have links to Iran or Hezbollah.
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Why the crisis in Yemen is getting worse
‘Revenge will end up with a bigger war’
While Foreign Secretary Lord Cameron was in Israel urging restraint, his Lebanese counterpart was telling us how he is willing him on to succeed.
“I hope the foreign ministers in Tel Aviv or in Jerusalem, wherever they are, they succeed with them [and persuade them not to retaliate]… to take it easy, and not to start a war with Iranians,” Abdullah Bou Habib told Sky News.
“And they started it,” he added. “They were hitting Iran in many Syrian areas and Iran was not retaliating but now after you hit its consulate, you can’t stop them.”
Image: Lebanon’s foreign minister Abdullah Bou Habib
Mr Habib issued his own dire warnings to try to avert a potentially disastrous attack by Israel.
“Any kind of revenge from Israel is going to end up with a bigger war,” he said.
He blamed the inaction by the United Nations (UN) for not definitively condemning the earlier suspected Israeli attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus – viewed as the first direct assault by Israel against Iran in more than six months of war in Gaza.
“We are very worried,” the Lebanese foreign minister said.
“We pray for a ceasefire but the UN is not moving in this direction and we are left not able to do anything.”
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Comparing Israel and Iran’s weapons
Asked whether, like Hezbollah, the Lebanese government welcomed the Iranian drone and missile attack against Israel, he responded: “We don’t welcome it nor do we denounce it.
“We are in a very difficult position because Israel started it. We really want peace – 90% of Lebanese really want peace.”
When questioned about just how much influence the Lebanese government has over Hezbollah, which has a powerful military wing believed to be stronger than the Lebanese army plus a political wing including elected MPs, the foreign minister was brutally frank.
“We don’t have influence with them [Hezbollah] in fighting over Israelis,” he admitted. “And when that happens, we support Hezbollah.”
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But he went on to focus on the nub of the issue: “And other countries… Syria, Jordan… also have problems because of what Israel is doing.
“The UN asked for a two-state solution in 1947, a long time ago, and this is the solution for all the problems in the Middle East.”
Without a two-state solution, he predicted, the Palestinians will never stop fighting.
‘Help us’
In Beirut’s Shatila refugee camp, which is filled with tens of thousands of Palestinians displaced from previous wars with Israel, there is not so much fear of retaliation as frustration at what they view as Western double standards.
Image: Shatila refugee camp in Beirut
Many mentioned to us the lack of Western condemnation of the direct attack on diplomatic soil at the Iranian consulate in the Syrian capital – widely accepted to be the work of Israel, though the IDF has never confirmed its responsibility.
“Let them respond,” said political activist Ahed Bahar, referring to an Israeli response to Iran’s attack.
“The Israelis are only a tool of the Americans and take their orders from the US, UK and France,” he said.
Image: Activist Ahed Bahar
The upheaval and high number of casualties in Gaza – caused by Israel’s response to Hamas’s attacks on Israel on 7 October – has drawn together not just Sunnis and Shi’ites in Lebanon but also many of the fractured political parties.
Kazem Hasan, the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO) chief in the camp, urged the British people to put more pressure on the UK government to help Palestinians.
“I tell to Britain that the struggle [in Gaza] isn’t against terrorism. It’s about Palestinian rights. We need our own state. Put right what you did wrong so many years ago and help us now.”
Image: PLO politician Kazem Hasan
Lebanon is waiting on tenterhooks to see what unfolds over the coming hours, days and weeks.
Additional reporting from cameraman Jake Britton, specialist producer Chris Cunningham and Lebanon producer Jihad Jneid.
At least 12 people have been killed in a suicide bombing outside the gates of a court in Pakistan’s capital of Islamabad, the country’s interior minister has said.
At least 27 other people were also wounded after the bomber detonated his explosives next to a police car.
Interior minister Mohsin Naqvi said the attacker tried to “enter the court premises but, failing to do so, targeted a police vehicle”.
Mr Naqvi added that authorities are “looking into all aspects” of the attack.
Image: Pic: Reuters
Image: Pic: AP
No group immediately claimed responsibility for the explosion, but authorities have recently struggled with a resurgent Pakistani Taliban.
The explosion, which was heard from miles away, occurred at a busy time of day when the area outside the court is typically crowded with hundreds of visitors attending hearings.
More than a dozen badly wounded people were screaming for help as ambulances rushed to the scene.
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“People started running in all directions,” said Mohammad Afzal, who claimed he was at the court when he heard the blast.
Image: Pic: Reuters
Image: Pic: AP
Pakistani security forces earlier said they foiled an attempt by militants to take cadets hostage at an army-run college overnight, when a suicide car bomber and five other attackers targeted the facility in a northwestern province.
The authorities blamed the Pakistani Taliban, which is separate from but allied with Afghanistan’s Taliban, but the group denied involvement in that attack on Monday evening.
The assault began when a bomber attempted to storm the cadet college in Wana, a city in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province near the Afghan border.
The area had, until recent years, served as a base for the Pakistani Taliban, al Qaeda and other foreign militants.
According to local police chief Alamgir Mahsud, two of the militants were quickly killed by troops while three others managed to enter the compound before being cornered in an administrative block.
The army’s commandos were among the forces conducting a clearance operation, and an intermittent exchange of fire went on into Tuesday, Mr Mahsud said.
Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif denounced both attacks and said those responsible must be brought to justice swiftly.
“We will ensure the perpetrators are apprehended and held accountable,” he said.
Mr Sharif described attacks on unarmed civilians as “reprehensible”, adding: “We will not allow the blood of innocent Pakistanis to go to waste.”
At least eight people have been killed and at least 19 others injured after a car exploded in New Delhi, say Indian police.
The blast, which triggered a fire that damaged several vehicles parked nearby, happened at the gates of the metro station at the Red Fort, a former Mughal palace and a busy tourist spot.
New Delhi’s international airport, metro stations and government buildings were put on a high security alert after the explosion, the government said. The cause of the explosion is being investigated.
The city’s police commissioner, Satish Golcha, said it happened a few minutes before 7pm.
“A slow-moving vehicle stopped at a red light. An explosion happened in that vehicle, and due to the explosion, nearby vehicles were also damaged,” he told reporters.
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Local media said at least 11 people were injured and that Mumbai and Uttar Pradesh state had been put on high alert after the incident
Image: Police officers and forensic technicians work at the site of the explosion. Pic: Reuters
Image: The site of the explosion. Pic: Reuters
One resident, who did not give a name, told NDTV: “We heard a big sound, our windows shook.”
Sanjay Tyagi, a Delhi police spokesman, said they were still investigating the cause, while the fire service reported that at least six vehicles and three autorickshaws had caught fire.
Images show the burnt-out remnants of several cars and forensic officers at the scene.
Image: The scene has now been sealed off. Pic: Reuters
Home minister Amit Shah told local media that a Hyundai i20 car exploded near a traffic signal close to the Red Fort. He said CCTV footage from cameras in the area will form part of the investigation.
“We are exploring all possibilities and will conduct a thorough investigation, taking all possibilities into account,” Shah said. “All options will be investigated immediately, and we will present the results to the public.”
The investigation is being conducted by the National Investigation Agency, India’s federal terror investigating agency, and other agencies.
India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi offered his condolences to those who have lost their loved ones in the blast.
He posted on X: “May the injured recover at the earliest. Those affected are being assisted by authorities.
“Reviewed the situation with Home Minister Amit Shah Ji and other officials.”
This breaking news story is being updated and more details will be published shortly.
It is a moment few could have imagined just a few years ago but the Syrian president, Ahmed al Sharaa, has arrived in Washington for a landmark series of meetings, which will culminate in a face-to-face with Donald Trump at the White House.
His journey to this point is a remarkable story, and it’s a tale of how one man went from being a jihadist battlefield commander to a statesman on the global stage – now being welcomed by the world’s most powerful nation.
Before that he went by the nom de guerre Abu Mohammed al Jolani.
During Syria’s brutal civil war, he was the leader of the Nusra Front – a designated terror organisation, the Syrian branch of al Qaeda.
Back then, the thought of him setting foot on US soil and meeting a US president would have been unthinkable. There was a $10m reward for information leading to his capture.
Image: Ahmed al Sharaa meeting Donald Trump in Riyadh in May. Pic: AP
So what is going on? Why is diplomacy being turned on its head?
After 14 years of conflict which started during the so-called Arab Spring, Syria is in a mess.
Mr Sharaa – as the head of the transitional government – is seen by the US as having the greatest chance of holding the country together and stopping it from falling back into civil war and failed state territory.
But to do that, Syria has to emerge from its pariah status and that’s what the US is gambling on and why it’s inclined to offer its support and a warm embrace.
Image: Donald Trump, Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman and Ahmed al Sharaa in May. Pic: Saudi Press Agency
By endorsing Mr Sharaa, it is hoping he will shed his past and emerge as a leader for everyone and unite the country.
Holding him close also means it’s less likely that Iran and Russia will again be able to gain a strong strategic foothold in the country.
So, a man who was once an enemy of the US is now being feted as a potential ally.
Image: Mr Sharaa meeting Vladimir Putin in Moscow in October. Pic: Reuters
There are big questions, though. He has rejected his extremist background, saying he did what he did because of the circumstances of the civil war.
But since he took power, there have been sectarian clashes. In July, fighting broke out between Druze armed groups and Bedouin tribal fighters in Sweida.
It was a sign of just how fragile the country remains and also raises concerns about his ability to be a leader for everyone.
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Nonetheless, Mr Sharaa is viewed as the best chance of stabilising Syria and by extension an important part of the Middle East.
Get Syria right, the logic goes, and the rest of the jigsaw will be easier to put and hold together.
The visit to Washington is highly significant and historic. It’s the first-ever official visit by a Syrian head of state since the country’s independence in 1946.
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Top shot: Syrian leader shows off his basketball skills
The meeting with Donald Trump is, though, the really big deal. The two men met in Riyadh in May but in the meeting later today they will discuss lifting sanctions – crucial to Syria’s post-war reconstruction – how Syria can help in the fight against Islamic State, and a possible pathway to normalisation of relations with Israel.
The optics will be fascinating as the US continues to engage with a former militant with jihadi links.
It’s a risk, but if successful, it could reshape Syria’s role in the region from US enemy to strong regional ally.