Having forced the House of Commons to vote down the Lords’ amendments to the prime minister’s flagship illegal immigration bill three times, peers would typically have bowed out of the battle this time around and passed the Rwanda bill.
There is obvious frustration in government, with one senior figure saying: “We wanted to get it done today, but it shows Labour for their true colours.”
The Rwanda bill now comes back to the Commons next week, and could finally be passed on Monday.
All the while, the clock is ticking down on the prime minister‘s promise to get flights away by the end of spring.
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With that timetable already in doubt, at least this ping pong can help ministers pin this on peers should that deadline be missed.
But there is also huge frustration amongst some MPs with Number 10.
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‘We need to get it through’
Many are asking why the government didn’t just table late night sittings and force Lords to sit into the night to ram through the legislation.
Tory MP Rehman Chishti spoke for many colleagues when he told me he didn’t understand why the whips hadn’t chosen this course.
“I think the programme motion could easily have ensured that we had a vote tomorrow because at the end of day the public want us to get on and get it done. Labour have delayed, dithered, delayed. We’ve got a plan, but we need to get it through,” he said.
“If you would have asked me, I would have put it in tomorrow and I would have a vote on it. And therefore we get those planes off and make sure that this policy delivers what it needs to be delivering, which is deterrence.”
Another senior minister told me it was “clear” to them that these were “delaying tactics because they know the version of the policy doesn’t work and they want more time and to put off the day of reckoning”.
Image: The UK’s Rwanda bill has been delayed again. Pic: AP
Labour ‘terrified it will work’
As Labour blames the government for refusing to compromise on amendments, and “going home” instead of looking again at the bill this evening, the government blames Labour for delaying the bill because – to quote minister Steve Baker – “they are terrified it will work”.
There is talk that had the government accepted the amendment to exempt Afghans who served alongside UK forces from deportation to Rwanda, the Lords might have passed the bill.
Labour had received an assurance from the Home Office that this amendment, tabled by former Labour defence secretary Des Browne, was going to be accepted – only for it then to be blocked.
For all the drama and irritation, it is likely that the prime minister will still have his moment.
At some point, the House of Lords will have to cave. Unelected peers cannot keep ignoring the will of the Commons.
But the question then is whether he can assuage the frustration of voters who are watching the small boats still coming, with the most crossings in a single day this year – 534 people – happening this week.
‘Another failed thing they promised’
In our Sky News election target town of Cleethorpes, part of a key bellwether seat in the next general election, voters we spoke to are sceptical the government will deliver the flights at all.
One resident told us: “They tell you what they think you want to hear but when it comes down to it, they don’t deliver that.”
Another said: “No one’s gone to Rwanda. They get on the plane, and they take them off. So that’s another failed thing they’ve promised.”
And really that’s the rub of it – the prime minister will get this legislation passed.
Then the challenge is to get those planes off the ground. Anything less won’t be acceptable.
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But with even some of his own backbenchers believing the policy won’t work, a parliamentary win is only the end of the beginning.
The next question is will he, if he has to, not just take on the Lords, but take on the European courts – and those in his own cabinet – and if necessary ignore court rulings to get flights away.
A US judge has granted prediction markets platform Kalshi a temporary reprieve from enforcement after the state of Connecticut sent it a cease and desist order last week for allegedly conducting unlicensed gambling.
The Connecticut Department of Consumer Protection (DCP) sent Kalshi, along with Robinhood and Crypto.com, cease and desist orders on Dec. 2, accusing them of “conducting unlicensed online gambling, more specifically sports wagering, in Connecticut through its online sports event contracts.”
Kalshi sued the DCP a day later, arguing its event contracts “are lawful under federal law” and its platform was subject to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s “exclusive jurisdiction,” and filed a motion on Friday to temporarily stop the DCP’s action.
An excerpt from Kalshi’s preliminary injunction motion arguing that the DCP’s action violates federal commodities laws. Source: CourtListener
Connecticut federal court judge Vernon Oliver said in an order on Monday that the DCP must “refrain from taking enforcement action against Kalshi” as the court considers the company’s bid to temporarily stop the regulator.
The order adds that the DCP should file a response to the company by Jan. 9 and Kalshi should file further support for its motion by Jan. 30, with oral arguments for the case to be held in mid-February.
Kalshi does battle with multiple US states
Kalshi is a federally regulated designated contract maker under the CFTC and, in January, began offering contracts nationally that allow bets on the outcome of events such as sports and politics.
Its platform has become hugely popular this year and saw a record $4.54 billion monthly trading volume in November, attracting billions in investments, with Kalshi closing a $1 billion funding round earlier this month at a valuation of $11 billion.
However, multiple US state regulators have taken issue with Kalshi’s offerings, which have led to the company being embroiled in lawsuits over whether it is subject to state-level gambling laws.
Kalshi sued the New York State Gaming Commission in October after the regulator sent a cease and desist order claiming it offered a platform for sports wagering without a license.
In September, Massachusetts’ state attorney general sued Kalshi in state court, which the company asked to be tossed. So far this year, Kalshi has sued state regulators in New Jersey, Nevada, Maryland and Ohio, accusing each of regulatory overreach.
Sir Keir Starmer has called for a tougher approach to policing Europe’s borders ahead of a meeting between leaders to discuss a potential shake-up of the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR).
The prime minister said the way in which the ECHR is interpreted in courts must be modernised, with critics long claiming the charter is a major barrier to deportations of illegal migrants.
His deputy, David Lammy, will today be in Strasbourg, France, with fellow European ministers to discuss reforms of how the agreement is interpreted in law across the continent.
In an opinion piece for The Guardian, Sir Keir and his Danish counterpart, Mette Frederiksen, said the change was necessary to prevent voters from turning to populist political opponents.
Image: Small boat crossings have risen this year. File pic: PA
What’s the issue with the ECHR?
The ECHR, which is the foundation of Britain’s Human Rights Act, includes the right to family life in its Article 8.
That is often used as grounds to prevent deportations of illegal migrants from the UK.
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There has also been a rise in cases where Article 3 rights, prohibiting torture, were used to halt deportations over claims migrants’ healthcare needs could not be met in their home country, according to the Home Office.
The Conservatives and Reform UK have both said they would leave the ECHR if in power, while the Labour government has insisted it will remain a member of the treaty.
But Sir Keir admitted in his joint op-ed that the “current asylum framework was created for another era”.
“In a world with mass mobility, yesterday’s answers do not work. We will always protect those fleeing war and terror – but the world has changed, and asylum systems must change with it,” the two prime ministers wrote, as they push for a “modernisation of the interpretation” of the ECHR.
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2:16
System ‘more than broken’, says asylum seeker
What is happening today?
Mr Lammy is attending an informal summit of the Council of Europe.
He is expected to say: “We must strike a careful balance between individual rights and the public’s interest.
“The definition of ‘family life’ can’t be stretched to prevent the removal of people with no right to remain in the country [and] the threshold of ‘inhuman and degrading treatment’ must be constrained to the most serious issues.”
It is understood that a political declaration signed by the gathered ministers could carry enough weight to directly influence how the European Court of Human Rights interprets the treaty.
The UK government is expected to bring forward its own legislation to change how Article 8 is interpreted in UK courts, and is also considering a re-evaluation of the threshold for Article 3 rights.
Image: David Lammy will swap Westminster for Strasbourg today
The plans have been criticised by Amnesty International UK, which described them as weakening protections.
“Human rights were never meant to be optional or reserved for comfortable and secure times. They were designed to be a compass, our conscience, when the politics of fear and division try to steer us wrong,” Steve Valdez-Symonds, the organisation’s refugee and migrant rights programme director, said.
Sir Keir’s government has already adopted several hardline immigration measures – modelled on those introduced by Ms Federiksen’s Danish government – to decrease the number of migrants crossing the Channel via small boats.
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2:40
Beth Rigby: The two big problems with Labour’s asylum plan
Starmer-Macron deal ‘a sticking plaster’
Meanwhile, French far-right leader Jordan Bardella told The Daily Telegraph he would rewrite his country’s border policy to allow British patrol boats to push back small vessels carrying migrants into France’s waters if he were elected.
The National Rally leader called Sir Keir’s “one-in, one-out” agreement with Emmanuel Macron, which includes Britain returning illegal arrivals in exchange for accepting a matching number of legitimate asylum seekers, a “sticking plaster” and “smokescreen”.
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4:02
Far-right, 30, and France’s most popular politician
He said that only a complete overhaul of French immigration policy would stop the Channel crossings.
Mr Bardella is currently leading in opinion polls to win the first round of France’s next presidential election, expected to happen in 2027, to replace Mr Macron.
The race for the new US Federal Reserve chair is nearing the finish line, with US President Donald Trump reportedly set to begin interviewing finalists for the top job this week.
According to a report from the Financial Times on Tuesday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has presented a list of four names to the White House.
One of these is former Fed governor Kevin Warsh, whom Bessent is scheduled to meet with on Wednesday. Another is National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett, who is seen as the frontrunner for the role.
Another two names would be picked from a list of other finalists, which includes Fed governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, and BlackRock chief investment officer Rick Rieder.
Trump and Bessent are expected to hold at least one interview next week, as a decision looks likely to be announced in January.
However, Trump has revealed he already has his eye on one particular candidate.
“We’re going to be looking at a couple different people, but I have a pretty good idea of who I want,” Trump said to journalists on Air Force One on Tuesday.
Kevin Hassett is a frontrunner for Fed chair role
The upcoming round of interviews suggests that Hassett may not be the clear lock in for the role as previously thought, though he is seen as the favorite.
Earlier this month, prediction market odds on Kalshi and Polymarket shot up for Hassett significantly following comments from Trump at the White House on Dec. 2.
While welcoming guests, Trump labeled Hassett as “potential Fed chair” leading many to assume the president had let a major hint slip.
With Hassett’s odds spiking to 85% after Trump’s comments last week, they have since declined to around 73% for Hassett, while Warsh’s odds sit at 13% on Kalshi at the time of writing, which has floated around this range over December.
Regardless of who ends up taking over as chair, the move is bound to impact crypto markets under the new leadership.
If elected, Hassett has asserted that he will be apolitical in terms of running the Fed, despite his close ties to Trump. Speaking with The Wall Street Journal this week, Hassett said that “You just do the right thing” when asked if he would blindly follow orders from Trump.
“Suppose that inflation has gotten from, say, 2.5% to 4%. You can’t cut,” Hassett said, adding that he would rely on his own “judgment, which I think the president trusts.”