Having forced the House of Commons to vote down the Lords’ amendments to the prime minister’s flagship illegal immigration bill three times, peers would typically have bowed out of the battle this time around and passed the Rwanda bill.
There is obvious frustration in government, with one senior figure saying: “We wanted to get it done today, but it shows Labour for their true colours.”
The Rwanda bill now comes back to the Commons next week, and could finally be passed on Monday.
All the while, the clock is ticking down on the prime minister‘s promise to get flights away by the end of spring.
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With that timetable already in doubt, at least this ping pong can help ministers pin this on peers should that deadline be missed.
But there is also huge frustration amongst some MPs with Number 10.
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‘We need to get it through’
Many are asking why the government didn’t just table late night sittings and force Lords to sit into the night to ram through the legislation.
Tory MP Rehman Chishti spoke for many colleagues when he told me he didn’t understand why the whips hadn’t chosen this course.
“I think the programme motion could easily have ensured that we had a vote tomorrow because at the end of day the public want us to get on and get it done. Labour have delayed, dithered, delayed. We’ve got a plan, but we need to get it through,” he said.
“If you would have asked me, I would have put it in tomorrow and I would have a vote on it. And therefore we get those planes off and make sure that this policy delivers what it needs to be delivering, which is deterrence.”
Another senior minister told me it was “clear” to them that these were “delaying tactics because they know the version of the policy doesn’t work and they want more time and to put off the day of reckoning”.
As Labour blames the government for refusing to compromise on amendments, and “going home” instead of looking again at the bill this evening, the government blames Labour for delaying the bill because – to quote minister Steve Baker – “they are terrified it will work”.
There is talk that had the government accepted the amendment to exempt Afghans who served alongside UK forces from deportation to Rwanda, the Lords might have passed the bill.
Labour had received an assurance from the Home Office that this amendment, tabled by former Labour defence secretary Des Browne, was going to be accepted – only for it then to be blocked.
For all the drama and irritation, it is likely that the prime minister will still have his moment.
At some point, the House of Lords will have to cave. Unelected peers cannot keep ignoring the will of the Commons.
But the question then is whether he can assuage the frustration of voters who are watching the small boats still coming, with the most crossings in a single day this year – 534 people – happening this week.
‘Another failed thing they promised’
In our Sky News election target town of Cleethorpes, part of a key bellwether seat in the next general election, voters we spoke to are sceptical the government will deliver the flights at all.
One resident told us: “They tell you what they think you want to hear but when it comes down to it, they don’t deliver that.”
Another said: “No one’s gone to Rwanda. They get on the plane, and they take them off. So that’s another failed thing they’ve promised.”
And really that’s the rub of it – the prime minister will get this legislation passed.
Then the challenge is to get those planes off the ground. Anything less won’t be acceptable.
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But with even some of his own backbenchers believing the policy won’t work, a parliamentary win is only the end of the beginning.
The next question is will he, if he has to, not just take on the Lords, but take on the European courts – and those in his own cabinet – and if necessary ignore court rulings to get flights away.
Sir Keir Starmer has insisted the “vast majority of farmers” will not be affected by changes to Inheritance Tax (IHT) ahead of a protest outside parliament on Tuesday.
It follows Chancellor Rachel Reeves announcing a 20% inheritance tax that will apply to farms worth more than £1m from April 2026, where they were previously exempt.
But the prime minister looked to quell fears as he resisted calls to change course.
Speaking from the G20 summit in Brazil, he said: “If you take a typical case of a couple wanting to pass a family farm down to one of their children, which would be a very typical example, with all of the thresholds in place, that’s £3m before any inheritance tax is paid.”
The comments come as thousands of farmers, including celebrity farmer Jeremy Clarkson, are due to descend on Whitehall on Tuesday to protest the change.
And 1,800 more will take part in a “mass lobby” where members of the National Farmers’ Union (NFU) will meet their MPs in parliament to urge them to ask Ms Reeves to reconsider the policy.
Speaking to broadcasters, Sir Keir insisted the government is supportive of farmers, pointing to a £5bn investment announced for them in the budget.
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He said: “I’m confident that the vast majority of farms and farmers will not be affected at all by that aspect of the budget.
“They will be affected by the £5bn that we’re putting into farming. And I’m very happy to work with farmers on that.”
Sir Keir’s spokesman made a similar argument earlier on Monday, saying the government expects 73% of farms to not be affected by the change.
Environment, Farming and Rural Affairs Secretary Steve Reed said only about 500 out of the UK’s 209,000 farms would be affected, according to Treasury calculations.
However, that number has been questioned by several farming groups and the Conservatives.
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2:28
Farming industry is feeling ‘betrayed’ – NFU boss
Government figures ‘misleading’
The NFU said the real number is about two-thirds, with its president Tom Bradshaw calling the government’s figures “misleading” and accusing it of not understanding the sector.
The Country Land and Business Association (CLA) said the policy could affect 70,000 farms.
Conservative shadow farming minister Robbie Moore accused the government last week of “regurgitating” figures that represent “past claimants of agricultural property relief, not combined with business property relief” because he said the Treasury does not have that data.
Agricultural property relief (APR) currently provides farmers 100% relief from paying inheritance tax on agricultural land or pasture used for rearing livestock or fish, and can include woodland and buildings, such as farmhouses, if they are necessary for that land to function.
Farmers can also claim business property relief (BPR), providing 50% or 100% relief on assets used by a trading business, which for farmers could include land, buildings, plant or machinery used by the business, farm shops and holiday cottages.
APR and BPR can often apply to the same asset, especially farmed land, but APR should be the priority, however BPR can be claimed in addition if APR does not cover the full value (e.g. if the land has development value above its agricultural value).
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Mr Moore said the Department for the Environment, Farming and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) and the Treasury have disagreed on how many farms will be impacted “by as much as 40%” due to the lack of data on farmers using BPR.
Lib Dem MP Tim Farron said last week1,400 farmers in Cumbria, where he is an MP, will be affected and will not be able to afford to pay the tax as many are on less than the minimum wage despite being asset rich.