How interpreter Ippei Mizuhara became players’ lifeline
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Tim Keown, ESPN Senior Writer
MICHAEL CROTTA DIDN’T know anybody or much of anything when he arrived to play professional baseball in Sapporo, Japan, in February 2014. His lack of knowledge of a new culture, and a little nervousness at the prospect of assimilating into it, caused him to show up about three weeks before spring training began for his new team, the Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters.
Almost immediately, he had help. One of the team’s two interpreters showed up every day from the time Crotta arrived until spring training started. He showed Crotta how to get a subway card and taught him the logistics of getting around the city. He took him to the grocery store more than once that first week, telling him what he liked to eat, what he liked to cook, how to navigate the aisles and shelves. They would go up and down the rows, and the interpreter would patiently explain how the store was laid out and how the Japanese words on the labels translated to English. Crotta remembers hearing, “This is what this says,” so many times it almost became an earworm.
Crotta and the interpreter were both 29, so there was some commonality. Crotta showed up near the end of the weeklong Sapporo Snow Festival, and his new friend took him there so he could experience the biggest cultural event on the island of Hokkaido. He taught Crotta the ins and outs of ordering at a Japanese restaurant, knowing, as Crotta says, “It’s extremely humbling when you can’t do it yourself.”
The interpreter was Ippei Mizuhara, now under federal indictment and charged with bank fraud for allegedly stealing more than $16 million of Los Angeles Dodgers star Shohei Ohtani‘s money to pay off gambling debts incurred through Southern California sports bookmaker Mathew Bowyer. Born in Japan and raised in Southern California from the time he was 7, the son of Orange County restaurateurs, Mizuhara’s first job in professional sports was as an interpreter for the Fighters, with which he spent five seasons (2013-17) helping the team’s American players. His tenure began Ohtani’s rookie year, and in 2018, when Ohtani left the Fighters for Major League Baseball and the Los Angeles Angels, Mizuhara joined him. He spent the past six years as Ohtani’s interpreter and personal assistant before being fired in March when the scandal over his admitted gambling addiction came to light.
With the interpreter gig in Japan, Mizuhara seemed to have found his path in life. He graduated from Diamond Bar High School, in eastern Los Angeles County, in 2003 and worked a variety of jobs before finding a way to combine his language skills and love of sports to set out on a career. (Along the way, he falsely claimed to have attended and graduated from University of California, Riverside; university spokesperson Sandra Martinez says nobody by that name was ever enrolled.) In high school, he appears to have left a minimal footprint. He was on the soccer team — the third-string goalkeeper who almost never played but enjoyed the game and always showed up for practice. “I don’t even remember if he ever got into a game,” says Kemp Wells, who was an assistant coach at the time. Mizuhara was unmemorable as a student, too: quiet, self-sufficient, definitely not someone his teachers or classmates expected to see splashed across every news platform in the country.
“When it comes to students, I tend to remember the really good ones and the really bad ones,” says Wells, who taught Mizuhara senior-year English. “And he was neither. Just kept his head down and did his work.”
(The school recently scrubbed Mizuhara from the “Distinguished Alumni” section of its website, and sources say there was a “soft blackout” at the school when it came to reporters’ inquiries about him.)
Three of the American players who worked closely with Mizuhara and consider him to be a friend — Crotta, Mitch Lively and Red Sox reliever Chris Martin — were reluctant to opine on how Mizuhara ended up in a federal courtroom in Los Angeles last Friday, his legs shackled. The 6-foot-8 Martin, towering over everyone in the visitors clubhouse in the Oakland Coliseum, shakes his head and says, “I obviously don’t have a lot to say, because I just don’t know. My wife and I are looking at Ippei’s face all over the news, looking at each other and saying, ‘This is wild.’ We’ve been in shock. The theft thing is what throws me off. Obviously things change and people change, but I can’t get my head around that part.”
OHTANI AND MIZUHARA were nearly inseparable for Ohtani’s first six years in the major leagues. In fact, it often seemed the most public aspect of Mizuhara’s job — translating from English to Japanese and vice versa during media interviews — was the least important. As an employee of both Ohtani’s team and Ohtani himself, Mizuhara wore many hats while notably wearing none, choosing to let his moptop flow untamed. He was a training partner, a butler and a confidant. He often drove Ohtani to the ballpark and took care of mundane off the field business: groceries, monthly bills, scheduling. He oversaw Ohtani’s pregame routine before starts on the mound and provided him with information on opposing pitchers from the bench or the on-deck circle. And, as we now know from federal investigators, he had access to at least one of Ohtani’s bank accounts, which he allegedly used to siphon money to pay off a staggering amount of gambling debt: 19,000 bets in roughly 26 months beginning in November 2021, more than $142 million wins and almost $183 million in losses.
The federal affidavit against Mizuhara depicts a relationship predicated on complete trust, a trust Mizuhara spun to his advantage. He is accused of not only funneling money from one of Ohtani’s bank accounts to pay off his losses, but directing the money from any winnings back to his own. He allegedly impersonated Ohtani in phone calls to the bank in order to get massive wire transfers approved without Ohtani’s knowledge. He is also accused of hiding any activity from that account, not only from Ohtani but his agent and business manager, as well. Somehow, perhaps because Ohtani’s representatives with powerhouse agency CAA were just as dependent on Mizuhara as Ohtani — agent Nez Balelo apparently employed no other Japanese-speaking interpreter — they apparently accepted his version as the truth.
Martin was interviewed on the “Baseball Isn’t Boring” podcast March 13, a week before news of the gambling scandal broke. The tone was lighthearted and breezy. Asked about his time in Japan with Mizuhara, he said, “All of my trust was in Ippei, and that was a lot of trust.”
Mizuhara’s time in Sapporo, where he worked as one of two team-employed interpreters for the four American players each NPB team is allowed to employ, mirrored his work with Ohtani in one important aspect: He took on a variety of duties that spread far beyond the narrow confines implied by his job title. American players arriving in Japan for the first time were often insulated and vulnerable. The broad range of services required from an interpreter shows how a person entrusted with the responsibility can facilitate — or infiltrate — the life of a player dependent on his language skills.
“He was my lifeline over there,” Lively says. “The translators are literally an extension of you. You don’t have a means of communicating, no means of filling out paperwork. You can’t live without them, and I looked at them as my friends, not team employees.”
Mizuhara helped players arrange for work visas before arriving in Japan. He took Lively to a local bank and helped him set up an account where his paycheck could be deposited. He accompanied Martin and his wife, Danielle, to ultrasound appointments after she got pregnant during the season. “Interpreters know a lot about you,” Martin says. “He was right there with us in the ultrasounds, making sure we knew everything that was going on. You don’t think anything of it.”
At the ballpark, American players relied on an interpreter to translate every conversation with a teammate or the manager or one of the coaches. Any type of instruction — bunt coverages, scouting reports, even things as simple as stretching drills — was funneled through an interpreter.
“I would have been completely lost without Ippei,” Crotta says. “Not just in baseball, but day-to-day life.”
Crotta spent the first season in Sapporo by himself while his then-wife and young son remained at the family’s home in Florida. But after the Fighters’ spring training in Okinawa ended the following March, Crotta’s wife, pregnant with the couple’s second child, traveled to Japan with their son to spend the season as a family. Mizuhara, concerned they might have difficulty navigating the plane change in the massive Narita airport, took the extraordinary step of flying from Sapporo to Tokyo to meet up with them and accompany them on the final leg of their journey.
“It wasn’t something I expected at all,” says Crotta, who assumes the team paid for Mizuhara’s time and flights. “That wasn’t really part of his job, but that’s the kind of guy he was.”
Crotta, who pitched in 15 games for the Pirates in 2011 and spent the next seven years trying unsuccessfully to get back to the big leagues, has more stories, and he seems eager to tell them, perhaps as a means of working through what he’s learned over the past few weeks. There was the time Mizuhara found out Crotta’s son was infatuated with animals and arranged for tickets and transportation for the family to go to the Sapporo Maruyama Zoo on a Fighters’ off day, and the time Mizuhara helped Crotta and his wife find a kindergarten school for their son, and the time the boy fell ill and Mizuhara called to arrange a doctor’s appointment and then went with them to make sure they understood everything the doctor was saying.
“There are so many things you take for granted until you find yourself in a situation where you can’t communicate with 98 percent of the population,” Crotta says. “There were a lot of things I wouldn’t have experienced without him. He definitely went out of his way to make sure I experienced as much of the culture as I wanted to.”
Due in no small part to Mizuhara’s influence, Crotta, now a commercial insurance salesman in the Tampa area, says he enjoyed his time in Japan so much that he would have stayed there and gotten a job in baseball if he could have become more conversant in the language. “I loved it there,” he says. “And there are a lot of things I wouldn’t have experienced without Ippei.”
Lively retired last year after 16 seasons of professional baseball, including 11 regular- or winter-league seasons in Latin America and Asia. He remained in touch with Mizuhara after leaving Japan; they continued to play in the same fantasy football league until a few years ago, and Lively texted him regularly through Ohtani’s move to the Dodgers.
Lively is speaking from his home in Susanville, California, the day Mizuhara was charged and the day before he appeared in shackles before the court and ordered to undergo gambling addiction treatment. Like the others, Lively is trying to square the person he knew with the person he’s seeing now. His cadence and tone make it seem likely that he’s shaking his head on the other end of the line. He hasn’t reached out to Mizuhara since the story broke — “I figure he’s busy dealing with death threats,” he says dryly — but he’s spent the past few weeks thinking and rethinking the minute details of his time with him. He never in a million years expected to have to rethink any of this, but: Were there signs? Did he, and the other Americans, miss something?
“I can’t give you a yes or a no or a maybe, and I don’t want to try,” Lively says. “I just know I never heard him talk about gambling, not once. I don’t know if that means anything, though. That’s the thing about addictions, right? You don’t talk about them. You hide them.”
Aside from a loss Thursday, the Colorado Avalanche keep rolling, and their spot atop the NHL standings is equaled by their position in the ESPN NHL Power Rankings.
Beyond the Avalanche, the Washington Capitals, Pittsburgh Penguins and Philadelphia Flyers rose up the rankings this week, while the Anaheim Ducks, New Jersey Devils and Utah Mammoth took a tumble.
The month of December includes many games on the schedule, and for this week’s edition of the Power Rankings, we’ve identified the most intriguing matchup on the docket for each club.
How we rank: A panel of ESPN hockey commentators, analysts, reporters and editors sends in a 1-32 poll based on the games through Wednesday.
Note: Previous ranking for each team refers to the previous edition, published Nov. 28. Points percentages are through Thursday’s games.
Previous ranking: 1
Points percentage: 81.5%
Dec. 27 at the Golden Knights. Months remain before the Stanley Cup playoff picture crystallizes into its final form. It’s a decent bet, however, that the Avs and Knights will both be skating into late April and beyond, and this contest is as good of a Western Conference finals preview as we may get before the actual thing — or at least until their next game on the schedule on April 11.
Next seven days: @ NYR (Dec. 6), @ PHI (Dec. 7), @ NSH (Dec. 9), vs. FLA (Dec. 11)
Previous ranking: 2
Points percentage: 73.2%
Dec. 13 vs. the Panthers. The Stars have won a great many of their games this season; they are second in the NHL standings behind the juggernaut Avs. But one of the games they didn’t win was against the defending Stanley Cup champs. Can they get a W here, in the last time they’ll see them this season until a possible Cup Final?
Next seven days: vs. SJ (Dec. 5), vs. PIT (Dec. 7), @ WPG (Dec. 9), @ MIN (Dec. 11)
Previous ranking: 3
Points percentage: 65.4%
Dec. 20 at the Lightning. There’s a lot of season left. But it looks these two former Southeast Division rivals will be near the top of their respective divisions — and could square off in the Eastern Conference finals in May.
Next seven days: vs. NSH (Dec. 6), vs. SJ (Dec. 7), vs. CBJ (Dec. 9), @ WSH (Dec. 11)
Previous ranking: 5
Points percentage: 63%
Dec. 9 at/Dec. 28 vs. the Canadiens. There were many strange events during the early 2020s. One of them was the 2020-21 NHL season where four new divisions were created, and the playoffs culminated in a Stanley Cup Final pitting one Atlantic Division team against another. Years have passed since then, and now both the Lightning and Canadiens are fighting for playoff position among their traditional division rivals.
Next seven days: vs. NYI (Dec. 6), @ TOR (Dec. 8), @ MTL (Dec. 9), @ NJ (Dec. 11)
Previous ranking: 8
Points percentage: 62.5%
Dec. 27 at the Jets. Around 450 miles separate these two Central Division rivals, but both will be fighting for similar real estate in the playoff race if the Avs and Stars keep dominating as they have.
Next seven days: @ VAN (Dec. 6), @ SEA (Dec. 8), vs. DAL (Dec. 11)
0:56
Jesper Wallstedt records 4th shutout in 6 games
Arda Öcal breaks down Jesper Wallstedt’s historic accomplishment following Minnesota’s 1-0 victory.
Previous ranking: 12
Points percentage: 64.3%
Dec. 11 vs. the Hurricanes. Although the team matchup here is notable — both the Caps and Canes are near the top of the Metro — this comes down to a historical stat angle for Alex Ovechkin. The team against which Ovi has scored the most goals in his record-breaking career is the Winnipeg Jets (58); No. 2 on that list is Carolina (53). Does he close the gap with a tally (or two, or three) in this contest?
Next seven days: @ ANA (Dec. 5), vs. CBJ (Dec. 7), vs. CAR (Dec. 11)
Previous ranking: 4
Points percentage: 61.1%
Dec. 27 at the Kings. With the Ducks back in the contenders’ mix this season, these Battle of SoCal games take on extra meaning. Anaheim won the most recent matchup, 5-4 in a shootout, on Nov. 28.
Next seven days: vs. WSH (Dec. 5), vs. CHI (Dec. 7), @ PIT (Dec. 9), @ NYI (Dec. 11)
Previous ranking: 7
Points percentage: 61.5%
Dec. 23 vs. the Sharks. For the first few years of the Golden Knights’ existence, the Sharks were a bitter rival, including some epic, violent clashes in the postseason. San Jose dropped off a bit, but appears back on the upswing. Will this showdown match the intensity of seasons past?
Next seven days: @ NJ (Dec. 5), @ NYR (Dec. 7), @ NYI (Dec. 9), @ PHI (Dec. 11)
Previous ranking: 6
Points percentage: 61.1%
Dec. 14 vs. the Canucks. With the trade rumor machine running on overdrive when it comes to Quinn Hughes joining his brothers in New Jersey at some point, this is another chance for the Devils faithful to see the eldest Hughes brother in action with his current team.
Next seven days: vs. VGK (Dec. 5), @ BOS (Dec. 6), @ OTT (Dec. 9), vs. TB (Dec. 11)
Previous ranking: 15
Points percentage: 63.5%
Dec. 13 vs. the Sharks. Penguins fans have been blessed to see Sidney Crosby in 1,378 regular-season games (and 180 in the playoffs). On this night, they’ll see Macklin Celebrini on PPG Paints Arena ice, a player whose game has recently drawn Crosby comparisons.
Next seven days: @ DAL (Dec. 7), vs. ANA (Dec. 9), vs. MTL (Dec. 11)
0:42
Sidney Crosby notches goal on the power play
Sidney Crosby notches goal on the power play
Previous ranking: 9
Points percentage: 57.4%
Dec. 29 at the Avalanche. The true test for the 2025-26 Kings will be in how far they progress in the playoffs. But this late-December matchup against the current top team in the West will be a good litmus test.
Next seven days: vs. CHI (Dec. 6), @ UTA (Dec. 8), @ SEA (Dec. 10)
Previous ranking: 21
Points percentage: 63.5%
Dec. 13 vs./Dec. 14 at the Hurricanes. The Flyers’ current standings position is a moderate surprise to those who did not peg them as a playoff team. This home-and-home series against the perennial playoff-contending Canes is a chance for Philly to make a statement.
Next seven days: vs. COL (Dec. 7), vs. SJ (Dec. 9), vs. VGK (Dec. 11)
Previous ranking: 10
Points percentage: 58.9%
Dec. 27 vs. the Rangers. Neither of these teams has what could be called a firm grasp on a playoff spot at this point, but the geographic rivals always bring the heat to these games no matter the standings.
Next seven days: @ TB (Dec. 6), @ FLA (Dec. 7), vs. VGK (Dec. 9), vs. ANA (Dec. 11)
Previous ranking: 16
Points percentage: 55.6%
Dec. 27 at the Maple Leafs. Have the Senators surpassed the Leafs? Ottawa didn’t have enough to knock Toronto off in the clubs’ first-round playoff series in the spring but sits ahead of its intraprovince rival currently.
Next seven days: vs. STL (Dec. 6), vs. NJ (Dec. 9), @ CBJ (Dec. 11)
Previous ranking: 17
Points percentage: 59.6%
Dec. 6 at the Maple Leafs. Is there anything better than a Saturday night matchup between the Canadiens and Maple Leafs? The clubs have split their matchups thus far, and their next tilt after this one isn’t until March 10.
Next seven days: @ TOR (Dec. 6), vs. STL (Dec. 7), vs. TB (Dec. 9), @ PIT (Dec. 11)
Previous ranking: 14
Points percentage: 55.4%
Dec. 13 at the Blackhawks. These two teams are no longer Norris Division rivals (or even in the same conference), but there’s always something special about a Blackhawks-Red Wings game!
Next seven days: @ SEA (Dec. 6), @ VAN (Dec. 8), @ CGY (Dec. 10), @ EDM (Dec. 11)
0:50
Patrick Kane lights the lamp for Red Wings
Patrick Kane lights the lamp
Previous ranking: 22
Points percentage: 55.2%
Dec. 23 vs. the Canadiens. These two of the Original Six clubs are both in playoff position in the first week of December, which adds some fuel to this rivalry compared to recent seasons when one team was clearly better than the other.
Next seven days: vs. NJ (Dec. 6), @ STL (Dec. 9), @ WPG (Dec. 11)
Previous ranking: 13
Points percentage: 51.8%
Dec. 14 at the Penguins. While the Mammoth and Penguins are fighting for postseason positioning, this game is under more of a spotlight for one Utah skater in particular: Logan Cooley, who grew up in the Pittsburgh area and participated in Sidney Crosby’s “Little Penguin” youth hockey program.
Next seven days: @ VAN (Dec. 5), @ CGY (Dec. 6), vs. LA (Dec. 8), vs. FLA (Dec. 10)
Previous ranking: 11
Points percentage: 56%
Dec. 12 at the Mammoth. Utah isn’t technically an expansion team, but this is still correctly described as the NHL’s two newest teams facing off in what also happens to be a superb uniform matchup — and a pivotal contest in the Western wild-card standings as well.
Next seven days: vs. DET (Dec. 6), vs. MIN (Dec. 8), vs. LA (Dec. 10)
Previous ranking: 26
Points percentage: 55.2%
Dec. 23/Dec. 31 at the Capitals. If the Rangers are going to get back in the playoff mix, they’ll need to win head-to-head games against teams currently occupying those spots. This double shot of contests against the Caps is an even better opportunity because both games are on the road.
Next seven days: vs. COL (Dec. 6), vs. VGK (Dec. 7), @ CHI (Dec. 10)
0:39
Artemi Panarin gets his 900th career point
Arda Öcal reports on the big nights from Artemi Panarin and Mika Zibanejad against the Ottawa Senators.
Previous ranking: 20
Points percentage: 55.6%
Dec. 7 at the Ducks. Since it’s not possible for the Blackhawks to play the Sharks and Ducks at the same time, we’ll pick this matchup that will showcase Connor Bedard against fellow young dynamo Leo Carlsson. Bedard & Co. will next see Macklin Celebrini and San Jose on Feb. 2.
Next seven days: @ LA (Dec. 6), @ ANA (Dec. 7), vs. NYR (Dec. 10)
Previous ranking: 24
Points percentage: 57.4%
Dec. 7 vs. the Capitals. The Caps and Blue Jackets have played some memorable games in recent seasons — including two Columbus victories down the stretch of 2024-25 when the club was fighting for the final wild-card spot. The Caps have won both contests this season — and both were a 5-1 final score — so the Blue Jackets are out for some vengeance in this one.
Next seven days: @ FLA (Dec. 6), @ WSH (Dec. 7), @ CAR (Dec. 9), vs. OTT (Dec. 11)
Previous ranking: 23
Points percentage: 51.8%
Dec. 29 at the Ducks. When it comes to rising teams in the Pacific Division, the Ducks appear to be about a year ahead of the Sharks, so this will be a glimpse into the future for San Jose fans. But it’s also a showdown of two of the league’s most exciting young talents in San Jose’s Macklin Celebrini and Anaheim’s Leo Carlsson.
Next seven days: @ DAL (Dec. 5), @ CAR (Dec. 7), @ PHI (Dec. 9), @ TOR (Dec. 11)
Previous ranking: 18
Points percentage: 51.9%
Dec. 9 vs. the Stars; Dec. 11 vs. the Bruins. At this point, we’d hope that fans in Winnipeg appreciate the fine art of goaltending, given that Connor Hellebuyck — arguably the best American goalie of all time — plays for the Jets. If so, this pair of home games will be a treat, as fellow elite American goalies Jake Oettinger and Jeremy Swayman come to town in the same week.
Next seven days: vs. BUF (Dec. 5), @ EDM (Dec. 6), vs. DAL (Dec. 9), vs. BOS (Dec. 11)
Previous ranking: 28
Points percentage: 53.7%
Dec. 16 vs. the Blackhawks. Three days after Connor McDavid and the Oilers buzz through the Six, another Canadian-born superstar named Connor will grace Scotiabank Arena. So, in a season that hasn’t gone as well as planned for the Leafs, at least Toronto fans will get an extended look at one definite member of their Olympic team (and one possible addition).
Next seven days: vs. MTL (Dec. 6), vs. TB (Dec. 8), vs. SJ (Dec. 11), vs. EDM (Dec. 13)
0:44
Matthew Knies falls to knees, gets up to score great goal for Leafs
Matthew Knies falls to knees, gets up to score great goal for Leafs
Previous ranking: 19
Points percentage: 50%
Dec. 15 at/Dec. 27 vs. the Lightning. The NHL schedule makers provided us with a double shot of the Battle of Florida this month! The action will be electric, as usual — although the teams will probably finish with fewer than the 65 penalties for 312 minutes they amassed in their preseason matchup on Oct. 4.
Next seven days: vs. CBJ (Dec. 6), vs. NYI (Dec. 7), @ UTA (Dec. 10), @ COL (Dec. 11)
Previous ranking: 25
Points percentage: 51.8%
Dec. 13 at the Maple Leafs. Last season, both of these clubs were firmly in playoff position but would see their seasons end at the hands of the Cup champion Panthers. This season hasn’t gone so well. Which of the two could use this mid-December matchup as a turning point?
Next seven days: vs. WPG (Dec. 6), vs. BUF (Dec. 9), vs. DET (Dec. 11)
Previous ranking: 27
Points percentage: 48.2%
Dec. 31 at the Stars. The closest that Buffalo has come to a Stanley Cup was in the 1999 Final, which it lost in controversial fashion to the Stars, who just came out with a new uniform paying homage to that title. Will Dallas be sporting those unis on New Year’s Eve?
Next seven days: @ WPG (Dec. 5), @ CGY (Dec. 8), @ EDM (Dec. 9), @ VAN (Dec. 11)
Previous ranking: 29
Points percentage: 44.6%
Dec. 12 vs. the Blackhawks. Not a ton has gone the Blues’ way this season, but maybe this old-school rivalry matchup against Chicago will serve to get them back on track for a big second half.
Next seven days: @ OTT (Dec. 6), @ MTL (Dec. 7), vs. BOS (Dec. 9), @ NSH (Dec. 11)
Previous ranking: 30
Points percentage: 42.6%
Dec. 29 at the Kraken. When it comes to regional rivalries, the Canucks-Kraken matchup isn’t on the level of many others around the league … yet. Perhaps this game jump-starts a big run for the Nucks.
Next seven days: vs. UTA (Dec. 5), vs. MIN (Dec. 6), vs. DET (Dec. 8), vs. BUF (Dec. 11)
Previous ranking: 32
Points percentage: 44.4%
Dec. 27 at the Blues. This hasn’t been the greatest season in franchise history. But this game could at least get a bit chippy — it’ll be Nashville’s third against St. Louis in December.
Next seven days: @ CAR (Dec. 6), vs. COL (Dec. 9), vs. STL (Dec. 11)
Previous ranking: 31
Points percentage: 41.4%
Dec. 23 at/Dec. 27 vs. the Oilers. There isn’t quite as much juice for these Battle of Alberta contests as when these two met in the 2022 Stanley Cup playoffs, but there’s every reason to expect fireworks in this bitter feud.
Next seven days: vs. UTA (Dec. 6), vs. BUF (Dec. 8), vs. DET (Dec. 10)
Sports
What Buster Olney, Jeff Passan are hearing about Schwarber’s suitors, top free agents and blockbuster trades
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Buster Olney
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Buster Olney
ESPN Senior Writer
- Senior writer ESPN Magazine/ESPN.com
- Analyst/reporter ESPN television
- Author of “The Last Night of the Yankee Dynasty”
MLB’s winter meetings begin Monday in Orlando, Florida, signaling the time when baseball’s offseason activity is likely to take off.
What’s the latest on free agent hitters, including coveted sluggers Kyle Schwarber and Kyle Tucker? Will Framber Valdez find a new home now that fellow top free agent pitcher Dylan Cease is off the board? What’s the latest on a trade market featuring stars such as Ketel Marte and Steven Kwan? And which teams could surprise the sport by making a big splash in Florida?
Here is the latest intel Buster Olney and Jeff Passan are hearing on the players, teams and themes that will rule this year’s meetings.
Last year’s winter meetings were all about Juan Soto — is there one free agent or theme on everyone’s mind going into the meetings this year?
Olney: Some agents and execs are saying the money for free agents is generally locked down. There are outliers, of course — the Toronto Blue Jays are doing their thing, and the Pittsburgh Pirates, A’s and Miami Marlins are all angling for a We Are Trying posture.
The very elite guys, such as Kyle Schwarber, will get their money. But there are early indications that a lot of the teams that are traditionally aggressive might be more conservative this winter, perhaps because of the looming labor situation — and that could lead to more trades, rather than investments in free agents, as teams look to plug holes.
Passan: When does the Kyle Schwarber dam break? Several teams’ fortunes — from Philadelphia to Cincinnati to Pittsburgh to Boston to Baltimore to the New York Mets — depend on where Schwarber goes. The belief among teams is that it will take five years to secure the 32-year-old, and once that happens — perhaps sometime during the meetings — teams will start pivoting, and the action will pick up demonstrably.
Which top free agent hitter is most likely to sign during the winter meetings?
Olney: In recent winters, the Blue Jays wanted to spend big and couldn’t entice Shohei Ohtani or Juan Soto to take their money. Now, some free agents could need Toronto, if some of the big-money teams pass on pricey moves. Kyle Tucker has been projected as a $400 million-plus player, but it might behoove him to move quickly if he gets an early, aggressive bid from the Jays (or some other team).
This is not a winter in which you want to be waiting for the big offers to materialize, as they did for Bryce Harper and Manny Machado in past offseasons.
Passan: Schwarber is the best bet. Tucker isn’t close to done yet. Cody Bellinger has a healthy market but is biding his time. Alex Bregman and Bo Bichette are world-class infielders with ample, moneyed suitors. Pete Alonso‘s signing could go down after Schwarber.
What’s clear is that there’s a group of teams that will spend on a big bat (Phillies, Red Sox, Blue Jays), a number surveying multiple options (Yankees, Mets, Cubs) and a handful that would do so opportunistically (Orioles, Tigers, Reds, Pirates). Others could emerge depending on how the market plays out and what trade possibilities emerge.
Which other hitters could move quickly at the meetings?
Olney: Cedric Mullins‘ choice to sign for a one-year, $7 million, with the Tampa Bay Rays could be a warning sign for this free agent class. Mullins was not a perfect free agent by any measure, after his struggles with the Mets, but the rapidity with which he agreed to a deal could reflect the general feeling that this market could play out like a game of musical chairs — if you’ve got offers in hand, it’d be best to move fast and grab a spot (and money). Jorge Polanco could be among those who sign sooner rather than later — he’s coveted by the Mariners and some other teams. Harrison Bader set himself up well with a strong performance in Philadelphia.
Passan: If Schwarber goes early, everyone is in play. Otherwise, the second tier of hitters includes infielder Jorge Polanco, catcher J.T. Realmuto and Japanese corner infielder Kazuma Okamoto, and teams believe there could be momentum toward deals with them. Another popular hitter: infielder Ha-Seong Kim, who could return to Atlanta — which still needs a shortstop — on a shorter-term deal or seek longer-term security elsewhere.
Now that Dylan Cease has signed, which big-name aces could move next?
Olney: It depends on your definition of ‘big-name.’ Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander, future Hall of Famers, will find landing spots, but they are on the downslopes of their remarkable careers; they can wait, and there is a presumption that Scherzer could pitch for his good friend and new San Francisco Giants manager Tony Vitello.
If you’re talking about the guys who will be getting paid the most, Framber Valdez and Ranger Suarez are next up, and there are clearly teams with which they could fit. The Mets need an ace; the Orioles need an ace. But the perceived expectations for Valdez’s next deal are high early in this offseason, evaluators say, and any team that bids on Suarez has to get comfortable with investing in a guy who doesn’t throw hard — which is not common in this era.
Passan: Teams in the mix for Suarez believe he’s the next big-time starter off the board. Though the 30-year-old won’t fetch a Dylan Cease-level deal, he long has been a target for Houston, which balks at deals beyond six years, and Baltimore, which is seeking a top-end rotation piece. Right-hander Michael King has widespread interest because of his frontline potential with a willingness to sign for a shorter term than the top starters. Also worth watching: right-hander Merrill Kelly, who at 37 is in line for a multiyear deal. Arguably the best starter in the class, Valdez is often among the league leaders in innings with a playoff résumé, and his market will unfold alongside the best hitters’.
Will we see a run of reliever signings following Devin Williams and Ryan Helsley getting deals?
Olney: Not necessarily, because there are so many relievers available — more than 100 unsigned free agents. Pete Fairbanks could be among the next to sign, and the 35-year-old Robert Suarez. Edwin Diaz‘s free agency is fascinating because he’s the best available pitcher in an offseason in which there are few teams seemingly prepared to invest a nine-figure contract on a short reliever. He has been linked to the Mets, of course, and the Blue Jays, but each of those teams has been filling other holes, so far.
Passan: The run on relievers is slowing slightly, though Fairbanks and Kyle Finnegan are the closers who could be had sooner than later. Tyler Rogers is primed to get a three-year deal, as is Brad Keller, who could transition to be a starter. Luke Weaver will get multiple years. The left-handed market is thin and led by Steven Matz, Caleb Ferguson, Taylor Rogers, Gregory Soto and Sean Newcomb. Diaz and Robert Suarez are the two best relievers left, and they are likely to wait for the larger market to shake out.
Which players will be mentioned most in winter meetings trade discussions?
Olney: It makes sense for teams that have trade candidates under team control into 2027 to weigh offers now because they might struggle to get proper value for those players next July, given the labor uncertainty after the season. That means players such as Mackenzie Gore of the Nationals — and Paul Toboni, Washington’s president of baseball operations, said in a “Baseball Tonight” podcast interview Wednesday that he has talked with Gore about hearing his name in trade rumors — and Kwan of the Guardians.
Interestingly, other teams report that the Twins haven’t been pushing Joe Ryan in trade discussions. Maybe that’s because they don’t have to, or, in the opinion of some evaluators, Minnesota could prefer to keep Ryan. The Diamondbacks told interested teams in July that they wouldn’t trade Marte, but their posture now is very different; they have to improve their rotation, and the quickest way to do that would be to swap Marte.
Passan: Multiple executives see a flurry of potential trades, headlined by Marte, Arizona’s All-Star second baseman. The Diamondbacks aren’t clamoring to move him. They also know that with five very affordable years under contract, Marte is among the most valuable players in baseball, thanks to his combination of productivity and cost. Another second baseman teams are considering: Tampa Bay’s Brandon Lowe.
Miami is almost certain to move a starting pitcher this winter, and Edward Cabrera has generated the most interest. Boston has been discussing its outfield surplus with multiple teams. Pittsburgh wants to trade a starter for a hitter. The Brendan Donovan market remains conflagrant, as St. Louis considers whether its rebuild will include him or the hefty return he would fetch.
Which is one surprise team to watch at the winter meetings?
Olney: We aren’t accustomed to seeing the Pirates, Marlins or A’s among the most aggressive teams, but they seem to be like college freshmen holding credit cards for the first time — some agents think they’ll add something in the range of $25 million to $30 million in payroll, either in salaries acquired through trades or in free agency.
Passan: After getting Helsley in free agency and Taylor Ward in a trade, the Orioles are looking to land a big player — and though the priority is pitching, they’re not against targeting a hitter, either. The Los Angeles Angels, whose last major free agent signing for more than $65 million was Anthony Rendon in December 2019, are still looking to bolster their rotation after trading for Grayson Rodriguez and signing Alek Manoah.
What else are you hearing that will shape the winter meetings?
Olney: The juiciest rumor I heard this week was the notion that the Mets could push the Phillies for Schwarber, and there are a lot of reasons this could make sense. Beyond Schwarber’s power and on-base capability — can you imagine pitchers working to get through Schwarber and Soto in the same inning? — he is known as someone who works to pull players together. And hell, even if the Mets don’t believe they can beat the Phillies in the bidding for the slugger, they could push Philadelphia’s cost by being involved, as the Braves did with Aaron Nola two winters ago.
There’s a lot of talk among teams about Murakami, the free agent corner infielder who is making his way from Japan — and skepticism, in some front offices, about how his skill set will play in the big leagues, given his big swing-and-miss profile and the perception that his defense could be a problem. But all he needs in this bidding is for one team (or more) to fall in love with his big-time power.
Passan: If Schwarber signs and unclogs the market, expect others to fall — either toward the end of the meetings or in the weeks leading up to Christmas. Japanese right-hander Tatsuya Imai could wind up with a big-market team on the East Coast, and the New York Yankees — with Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodon expected to miss the start of the season — New York Mets and Philadelphia are reasonable landing spots. All three have interest in Bellinger, too. Another Japanese star, Murakami, is more likely to sign in the period between the meetings and holidays. With the paucity of center fielders in free agency and on the trade market, Bader has a healthy market.
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Jorge Castillo
The Boston Red Sox, seeking to fortify their starting rotation, acquired right-hander Johan Oviedo from the Pittsburgh Pirates in a five-player trade that sent heralded outfield prospect Jhostynxon Garcia to Pittsburgh, the teams announced Thursday.
The Pirates also received minor league right-hander Jesus Travieso and shipped minor league left-hander Tyler Samaniego and catcher Adonys Guzman to Boston.
Oviedo, 27, joins the Red Sox days after the club acquired right-hander Sonny Gray from the St. Louis Cardinals for two players. Gray is an established 13-year veteran with a 3.60 ERA in 330 career starts. Oviedo has tantalizing tools that made him an attractive option on the trade market. He will be under team control through 2027.
At 6-foot-6, Oviedo features a mid-90s fastball that touches 98 mph. His arm extension ranked in the 98th percentile last season. In 2023, his slider was one of the best pitches in the majors as calculated by run value.
But inconsistency and injuries have plagued Oviedo’s major league career. He owns an 11% walk rate for his career. He missed the 2024 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery, and his 2025 debut was pushed to August after suffering a lat injury during spring training. Oviedo returned to record a 3.57 ERA, posting 42 strikeouts and 23 walks over 40⅓ innings in nine starts when he returned. He pitched into the sixth inning once.
Oviedo lengthens a group of starting pitchers that includes AL Cy Young runner-up Garrett Crochet, Gray, Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford and Patrick Sandoval.
Garcia, nicknamed The Password for his difficult-to-spell first name, made his major league debut Aug. 22 at Yankee Stadium. He went 1-for-7 with a double and two walks in five games before he was demoted to Triple-A Worcester.
A Venezuela native, Garcia batted .267 with 21 home runs and an .810 OPS in 114 games — 83 in center field — between Double-A and Triple-A. He was Boston’s No. 3 prospect in ESPN insider Kiley McDaniel’s August rankings, but the Red Sox have a surplus of capable every-day major league outfielders, with Ceddanne Rafaela, Roman Anthony, Jarren Duran and Wilyer Abreu on the roster.
The Pirates have excess in rotation depth, led by National League Cy Young Award winner Paul Skenes, but they are looking to improve the offense this offseason. Garcia figures to have the opportunity to compete for an everyday role for a club that ranked last in the majors in runs scored in 2025, slotting into the outfield alongside center fielder Oneil Cruz and right fielder Bryan Reynolds.
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