AUSTIN, TEXAS — Adam Sullivan left investment banking to mine bitcoin at an awkward time. It was May 2023, bitcoin was trading at around $21,000, U.S. regulators were in the thick of cracking down on the sector writ large, and Core Scientific, the company he had agreed to take over, was battling angry lenders in a Texas bankruptcy court over tens of millions of dollars in outstanding debt.
But Sullivan knew that, with a lifeline, he could get the business to a much better place. That’s because the halving was on the way, and with it would likely come a big rally in bitcoin.
Late Friday night, the bitcoin code automatically cut new issuance of the world’s largest cryptocurrency in half. It happens roughly every four years, and in addition to helping to stave off inflation, it historically precedes a major run-up in the price of bitcoin.
The technical event is relatively simple: Bitcoin miners get paid in bitcoin to validate transactions, and after 210,000 blocks of transactions are computed and added to the main chain, the reward given to the miners securing bitcoin is ‘halved.’
There are more than a dozen publicly traded miners on the network and thousands of smaller, private ones around the globe, constantly racing to process transactions and get paid in new bitcoin. Because the event leads to a cut to rewards paid to miners directly, they’ll be the first ones to feel the impact of the halving.
The price of bitcoin has touched new all-time highs after each “halving” event.
CNBC
Typically, when the halving cuts supply, it’s led to huge rallies for bitcoin.
In fact, the previous (and only) three halvings in the chain’s history have come before every bull run, in which the coin has touched new all-time highs and a surge of investors have entered the market for the first time.
That rapid price increase has helped many miners stave off the worst since it tends to offset the impact of having the block prize cut in half.
“As a company that was already in the process of scaling our infrastructure during the previous halving, we know the toll that halvings can take on a company if it is not adequately prepared,” Core’s Sullivan told CNBC.
The aggregate market cap of the 14 U.S.-listed bitcoin miners tracked by JPMorgan analysts, which accounts for around 21% of the global Bitcoin network, declined 28% over the first half of April to $14.2 billion, reaching year-to-date lows. Bitdeer was the best-performing stock over the period, down around 20%, versus Stronghold Digital, which was 46% lower.
Some have billed the 2024 bitcoin halving as a seminal moment for the mining sector. Depending on how much prep work miners have done, it could easily make or break them.
“Being prepared for a halving means evaluating all of your power strategies, all of your software capabilities, all of your operations,” continued Sullivan.
Others are less concerned given recent price moves in bitcoin.
In a research note from Needham on Apr. 16, analysts said they expect the halving to only have a modest impact to miners’ estimated EBITDA margins, despite the 50% reduction in revenue, since the price of bitcoin has been trading in the range of $60,000 to $70,000.
“We expect geopolitical tensions and interest rate policy to be the biggest near-term drivers of crypto price action,” Needham analysts wrote, adding that at a bitcoin price above $60,000, the halving is “derisked for nearly all public miners.”
The bank did, however, single out their preference for low-cost bitcoin producers like Riot Platforms, Bitdeer, and Cipher Mining. Meanwhile, if bitcoin prices fall, Needham says the most outsized native impact will be felt by higher cost producers that are also levered to higher bitcoin prices via large treasury holdings.
Analysts from JPMorgan echoed a similar sentiment, writing in an Apr. 16 research note that they think “recent weakness offers an attractive entry point” for investors and that they are “especially bullish” on Riot, which they believe offers attractive relative valuations.
Power supply for Whinstone’s bitcoin mine in Rockdale, Texas.
Years spent bracing for the halving
Miners have had years to prepare for the halving, including seeking lower power costs and upgrading their fleets to more efficient machines.
“Bitcoin’s halving happens like clockwork every four years,” said Haris Basit, chief strategy officer of Bitdeer Technologies Group. “It’s a known variable that is a benchmark for us to remain focused on operational excellence.”
To that end, the Singapore-headquartered mining firm has invested in new data centers, but its core strategy has been to increase vertical integration through research and development. 25% of its staff is focused on R&D efforts, which Basit says have “led to new innovations and revenue pathways, such as our recently announced 4nm mining rigs and AI Cloud offerings.”
Analysts at Cantor Fitzgerald recently named Bitdeer as having one of the industry’s lowest “all-in” cost-per-coin.
Greg Beard, the CEO and Chairman of Stronghold Digital Mining, tells CNBC thatminers whose only lever is more efficient machines will be at a disadvantage.
“Miners who own their low-cost power are better positioned,” said Beard. “Operational costs will be lower, allowing them to be more flexible with their capital.”
Core’s Sullivan agrees, noting that bitcoin mining data centers in the future will work hand-in-glove with power generators and grid operators to serve as a virtual battery for grid operators – allowing them to increase base load, curtail bitcoin data centers when they need to, and avoid peak generation loads, which he says are dirty and expensive.
“We own and operate our infrastructure, giving us greater control over operational and strategic decisions, such as the potential to expand into high-performance computing hosting,” said Sullivan.
Core Scientific, which launched in 2017 and now manages seven mining sites in five U.S. states, also owns the full technology stack. The company has been looking to diversify its revenue streams beyond purely bitcoin. Sullivan says that existing data centers offer reconfiguration opportunities to accommodate new types of high-value compute.
“Certain data centers are located in close proximity to major metropolitan areas, making them candidates for low-latency, high-value compute applications,” said Core’s CEO.
Bitdeer’s bitcoin mine in Rockdale, Texas.
Riot Platforms CEO Jason Les told CNBC that preparation for the halving came down to the company’s long-standing focus on achieving a low cost of power, strong balance sheet, and significant scale of operations. Les says that’s what has positioned the firm to both withstand the halving with positive margins and be well positioned for upside on the other side of it.
“Our new Corsicana Facility was energized just this week, and we will be significantly scaling up our hash rate with next-generation equipment at that new site over the remainder of the year,” said Les. “As a result, we are positioned to mine more bitcoin per day at the end of the year than we do today, despite the halving.”
Marathon Digital, which has seen its stock rise more than 70% in the last year, took a different approach to scaling the business than its rivals. CEO Fred Thiel tells CNBC that the company grew quickly using an asset-light approach, where Capex was spent on mining rigs rather than infrastructure.
“In December, we owned less than 5% of the sites where we were hosting our miners,” said Thiel. “Today we now own 53% of our total 1.1 gigawatts of capacity, having purchased it at less than the build and replacement cost.”
Owning sites lowers Marathon’s cost to mine by up to 20% on a marginal cost basis. Thiel also noted that by the end of 2024, Marathon expects to further improve efficiency by 10% to 15% as they deploy the next generation rigs across their new sites.
That boost to efficiency isn’t just about new gear, however. The firm is deploying its own custom firmware, which allows it to operate even more efficiently.
Marathon, along with other mining firms, has begun diversifying its business model into ancillary operations beyond purely bitcoin mining, as well.
Thiel says the company recently launched an energy harvesting division, where they are compensated for converting stranded methane and bio-mass into energy, which they then sell heat back into an industrial or commercial process. The service essentially subsidizes and lowers Marathon’s cost to mine significantly. The company expects this new business line to generate a significant portion of its revenues by the halving in 2028.
Diversifying revenue
The April 2024 bitcoin halving looks a lot different than the three that came before it.
For years, increased competition resulting from new miners coming online has been cutting into profits, because more miners means more people are sharing the same pool of rewards.
In a research note from JPMorgan on Apr. 16, analysts note that the network hashrate, a proxy for industry competition and mining difficulty, was up 4% in April from the month before. Stronghold’s Beard says the halving is a headwind dwarfed by the global hashrate increasing nearly five-fold from the last one in May 2020.
“Mining is a tough industry especially because there are a lot of nation states that have extra power power and they’re dedicating it to mining,” said Nic Carter of Castle Island Ventures. “It’s a free market, anybody can enter into it as long as they have the basics.”
U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds have also significantly shifted the pricing dynamics. In years past, the price of bitcoin didn’t surge until after the halving. But in the wake of record flows into these spot bitcoin funds, the world’s largest cryptocurrency touched a fresh all-time-high above $73,000 in March.
“The recently approved bitcoin ETFs have proven to be huge pipelines of capital into bitcoin and that universe of ETFs continues to grow with the recent approvals in Hong Kong as well,” said Riot’s Les. “We think the price action we’ve seen in bitcoin year-to-date reflect that and has us very optimistic on what bitcoin mining economics can look like in the months and years post-halving.”
Blackrock’s ETF reached $17 billion in net assets within a few months of launching. Beard of Stronghold tells CNBC that if Blackrock added even just a billion dollars more of bitcoin in April to its ETF, it would single handedly create demand for more coins than the mining industry will supply post halving.
What is also different this time around is that the block reward is no longer the primary form of miner revenue. Recent programming innovations in bitcoin have given way to a burgeoning ecosystem of projects building on top of bitcoin’s blockchain, which has translated to greater transaction fee revenue for miners.
There is a limit to how large the blocks can go but the value of those blocks is about to increase significantly, according to Bill Barhydt, who is the CEO and founder of Abra. From Barhydt’s vantage point, he supports miners with a mix of services, including their auto liquidations, so he has access to a lot of macro data across the sector.
“The math is simple,” begins Barhydt. “Bitcoin blocks are fixed in size and the demand for data within those blocks is going to increase significantly for several reasons, including more retail wallet holders moving their bitcoin into and out of storage, new uses cases like Ordinals (NFTs for bitcoin) and DeFi on bitcoin, institutional settlement requirements for exchange traded products in the U.S., Hong Kong, Europe, etc., lightning settlement transactions, and more.”
At the current rate of adoption, Barhydt believes that transaction fees in this cycle would likely peak within 24 months at 10 times their cost during the previous cycle peak, due to a combination of a higher price for bitcoin itself, combined with higher demand for the space inside each block.
Castle Island’s Carter isn’t so sure that fee-based revenue can completely make up for lost income post-halving.
“It’s not entirely clear that fees are fully offsetting the lost revenue, and in fact, I don’t expect that to happen” said Carter.
Fees tend to be really cyclical. They rise sharply during periods of congestion, and they fall back to near zero during other normal periods. Carter cautions that miners will see spikes in fees, but there is not yet an enduring, strong, and robust fee market most of the time.
Swapping ASICs for AI
In the last year, there has been a surge in demand for AI compute and infrastructure that can support the massive workloads required to power these novel machine learning applications. In a new report, digital asset fund manager CoinShares says it expects to see more miners shift toward artificial intelligence in energy-secure locations because of the potential for higher revenues.
Already, mining firms like BitDigital, Hive, Hut 8, Terawfulf, and Core Scientific all have either current AI operations or AI growth plans.
“This trend suggests that bitcoin mining may increasingly move to stranded energy sites while investment in AI grows at more stable locations,” write analysts at CoinShares.
But pivoting from bitcoin mining to AI isn’t as simple as re-purposing existing infrastructure and machines. The data center requirements are different, as are the data network needs.
“AI presents several challenges, notably the need for distinct and considerably more costly infrastructure, which establishes barriers to entry for smaller, less capitalized entities,” continues the report. “Additionally, the necessity for a different skill set among employees leads to increased costs as companies hire more AI-skilled talent.”
The rigs used to mine bitcoin are called ASICs, short for Application-Specific Integrated Circuits. The “Specific” in that acronym means that it can’t be used to do other things, like supporting the underlying infrastructure for AI.
“If you’re a bitcoin miner, your machines can’t be repurposed,” explains Carter. “You have to buy net new machines in order to do it and the data center requirements are different for AI versus bitcoin mining.”
Sullivan says that Core Scientific, which has been mining a mix of digital assets since 2017, began to diversify into other services in 2019.
“The company has owned and hosted Nvidia DGX systems and GPUs for AI computing, having built and deployed a specialized facility specifically for high-value compute applications at our Dalton, Georgia data center campus,” he said.
Core Scientific has also partnered with CoreWeave, a cloud provider which provides infrastructure for use cases like machine learning.
Sullivan says the combined capabilities will support both AI and High Performance Compute workloads, resulting in an estimated revenue of $100 million, though he says the total potential revenue is much higher given their significant infrastructure footprint that can be fitted to host some of the most advanced GPU compute coming to market.
“Bitcoin mining is an early example of high-value compute, attracting significant capital and a number of companies scaling their operations to support the Bitcoin network,” said Sullivan.
But Sullivan thinks few operators will be able to make the transition to AI.
Sullivan continued, “Bitcoin mining sites can only be repurposed if they meet the attributes that are required for HPC. Many existing sites across North America do not meet these needs.”
Bitcoin extended its rebound on Wednesday, hovering just below $100,000 after another encouraging inflation report fueled investors’ risk appetite.
The price of the flagship cryptocurrency was last higher by more than 3% at $99,444.43, bringing its 2-day gain to about 7%, according to Coin Metrics.
The CoinDesk 20 index, which measures the broader market of cryptocurrencies, gained 6%.
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Bitcoin approaches $100,000 after Wednesday’s CPI data
Wednesday’s move followed the release of the December consumer price index, which showed core inflation unexpectedly slowed in December. A day earlier, the market got another bright inflation reading in the producer price index, which showed wholesale prices rose less in December than expected.
The post-election crypto rally fizzled into the end of 2024 after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell sounded an inflation warning on Dec. 18, and bitcoin suffered even steeper losses last week as a spike in bond yields prompted investors to dump growth-oriented risk assets. This Monday, bitcoin briefly dipped below $90,000.
The price of bitcoin has been taking its cue from the equities market in recent weeks, thanks in part to the popularity of bitcoin ETFs, which have led to the institutionalization of the asset. Bitcoin’s correlation with the S&P 500 has climbed in the past week, while its correlation with gold has dropped sharply since the end of December.
Don’t miss these cryptocurrency insights from CNBC Pro:
The Microsoft 365 website on a laptop arranged in New York, US, on Tuesday, June 25, 2024.
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The beginning of the year is a great time to do some basic cyber hygiene. We’ve all been told to patch, change passwords, and update software. But one concern that has been increasingly creeping to the forefront is the sometimes quiet integration of potentially privacy-invading AI into programs.
“AI’s rapid integration into our software and services has and should continue to raise significant questions about privacy policies that preceded the AI era,” said Lynette Owens, vice president, global consumer education at cybersecurity company Trend Micro. Many programs we use today — whether it be email, bookkeeping, or productivity tools, and social media and streaming apps — may be governed by privacy policies that lack clarity on whether our personal data can be used to train AI models.
“This leaves all of us vulnerable to uses of our personal information without the appropriate consent. It’s time for every app, website, or online service to take a good hard look at the data they are collecting, who they’re sharing it with, how they’re sharing it, and whether or not it can be accessed to train AI models,” Owens said. “There’s a lot of catch up needed to be done.”
Where AI is already inside our daily online lives
Owens said the potential issues overlap with most of the programs and applications we use on a daily basis.
“Many platforms have been integrating AI into their operations for years, long before AI became a buzzword,” she said.
As an example, Owens points out that Gmail has used AI for spam filtering and predictive text with its “Smart Compose” feature. “And streaming services like Netflix rely on AI to analyze viewing habits and recommend content,” Owens said. Social media platforms like Facebook and Instagram have long used AI for facial recognition in photos and personalized content feeds.
“While these tools offer convenience, consumers should consider the potential privacy trade-offs, such as how much personal data is being collected and how it is used to train AI systems. Everyone should carefully review privacy settings, understand what data is being shared, and regularly check for updates to terms of service,” Owens said.
One tool that has come in for particular scrutiny is Microsoft’s connected experiences, which has been around since 2019 and comes activated with an optional opt-out. It was recently highlighted in press reports — inaccurately, according to the company as well as some outside cybersecurity experts that have taken a look at the issue — as a feature that is new or that has had its settings changed. Leaving the sensational headlines aside, privacy experts do worry that advances in AI can lead to the potential for data and words in programs like Microsoft Word to be used in ways that privacy settings do not adequately cover.
“When tools like connected experiences evolve, even if the underlying privacy settings haven’t changed, the implications of data use might be far broader,” Owens said.
A spokesman for Microsoft wrote in a statement to CNBC that Microsoft does not use customer data from Microsoft 365 consumer and commercial applications to train foundational large language models. He added that in certain instances, customers may consent to using their data for specific purposes, such as custom model development explicitly requested by some commercial customers. Additionally, the setting enables cloud-backed features many people have come to expect from productivity tools such as real-time co-authoring, cloud storage and tools like Editor in Word that provide spelling and grammar suggestions.
Default privacy settings are an issue
Ted Miracco, CEO of security software company Approov, said features like Microsoft’s connected experiences are a double-edged sword — the promise of enhanced productivity but the introduction of significant privacy red flags. The setting’s default-on status could, Miracco said, opt people into something they aren’t necessarily aware of, primarily related to data collection, and organizations may also want to think twice before leaving the feature on.
“Microsoft’s assurance provides only partial relief, but still falls short of mitigating some real privacy concern,” Miracco said.
Perception can be its own problem, according to Kaveh Vadat, founder of RiseOpp, an SEO marketing agency.
“Having the default to enablement shifts the dynamic significantly,” Vahdat said. “Automatically enabling these features, even with good intentions, inherently places the onus on users to review and modify their privacy settings, which can feel intrusive or manipulative to some.”
His view is that companies need to be more transparent, not less, in an environment where there is a lot of distrust and suspicion regarding AI.
Companies including Microsoft should emphasize default opt-out rather than opt-in, and might provide more granular, non-technical information about how personal content is handled because perception can become a reality.
“Even if the technology is completely safe, public perception is shaped not just by facts but by fears and assumptions — especially in the AI era where users often feel disempowered,” he said.
Default settings that enable sharing make sense for business reasons but are bad for consumer privacy, according to Jochem Hummel, assistant professor of information systems and management at Warwick Business School at the University of Warwick in England.
Companies are able to enhance their products and maintain competitiveness with more data sharing as the default, Hummel said. However, from a user standpoint, prioritizing privacy by adopting an opt-in model for data sharing would be “a more ethical approach,” he said. And as long as the additional features offered through data collection are not indispensable, users can choose which aligns more closely with their interests.
There are real benefits to the current tradeoff between AI-enhanced tools and privacy, Hummel said, based on what he is seeing in the work turned in by students. Students who have grown up with web cameras, lives broadcast in real-time on social media, and all-encompassing technology, are often less concerned about privacy, Hummel said, and are embracing these tools enthusiastically. “My students, for example, are creating better presentations than ever,” he said.
Managing the risks
In areas such as copyright law, fears about massive copying by LLMs have been overblown, according to Kevin Smith, director of libraries at Colby College, but AI’s evolution does intersect with core privacy concerns.
“A lot of the privacy concerns currently being raised about AI have actually been around for years; the rapid deployment of large language model trained AI has just focused attention on some of those issues,” Smith said. “Personal information is all about relationships, so the risk that AI models could uncover data that was more secure in a more ‘static’ system is the real change we need to find ways to manage,” he added.
In most programs, turning off AI features is an option buried in the settings. For instance, with connected experiences, open a document and then click “file” and then go to “account” and then find privacy settings. Once there, go to “manage settings” and scroll down to connected experiences. Click the box to turn it off. Once doing so, Microsoft warns: “If you turn this off, some experiences may not be available to you.” Microsoft says leaving the setting on will allow for more communication, collaboration, and AI served-up suggestions.
In Gmail, one needs to open it, tap the menu, then go to settings, then click the account you want to change and then scroll to the “general” section and uncheck the boxes next to the various “Smart features” and personalization options.
As cybersecurity vendor Malwarebytes put it in a blog post about the Microsoft feature: “turning that option off might result in some lost functionality if you’re working on the same document with other people in your organization. … If you want to turn these settings off for reasons of privacy and you don’t use them much anyway, by all means, do so. The settings can all be found under Privacy Settings for a reason. But nowhere could I find any indication that these connected experiences were used to train AI models.”
While these instructions are easy enough to follow, and learning more about what you have agreed to is probably a good option, some experts say the onus should not be on the consumer to deactivate these settings. “When companies implement features like these, they often present them as opt-ins for enhanced functionality, but users may not fully understand the scope of what they’re agreeing to,” said Wes Chaar, a data privacy expert.
“The crux of the issue lies in the vague disclosures and lack of clear communication about what ‘connected’ entails and how deeply their personal content is analyzed or stored,” Chaar said. “For those outside of technology, it might be likened to inviting a helpful assistant into your home, only to learn later they’ve taken notes on your private conversations for a training manual.”
The decision to manage, limit, or even revoke access to data underscores the imbalance in the current digital ecosystem. “Without robust systems prioritizing user consent and offering control, individuals are left vulnerable to having their data repurposed in ways they neither anticipate nor benefit from,” Chaar said.
Microsoft Chairman and CEO Satya Nadella speaks during the Microsoft May 20 Briefing event at Microsoft in Redmond, Washington, on May 20, 2024. Nadella unveiled a new category of PC on Monday that features generative artificial intelligence tools built directly into Windows, the company’s world leading operating system.
Jason Redmond | AFP | Getty Images
Microsoft on Wednesday announced a tier of its Copilot assistant for corporate users with a consumption-based pricing model. The new Microsoft 365 Copilot Chat option represents an alternative to the Microsoft 365 Copilot, which organizations have been able to pay for based on the number of employees with access to it.
The introduction shows Microsoft’s determination to popularize generative artificial intelligence software in the workplace. Several companies have adopted the Microsoft 365 Copilot since it became available for $30 per person per month in November 2023, but one group of analysts recently characterized the product push as “slow/underwhelming.”
Copilot Chat can be an on-ramp to Microsoft 365 Copilot, with a lower barrier to entry, Jared Spataro, Microsoft’s chief marketing officer for AI at work, said in a CNBC interview this week. Both offerings rely on artificial intelligence models from Microsoft-backed OpenAI.
Copilot Chat can fetch information from the web and summarize text in uploaded documents, and people using it can create agents that perform tasks in the background. It can enrich answers with information from customers’ files and third-party sources.
Unlike Microsoft 365 Copilot, Copilot Chat can’t be found in Office applications such as Word and Excel. People can reach Copilot Chat starting today in the Microsoft 365 Copilot app for Windows, Android and iOS. The app is formerly known as Microsoft 365 (Office). It’s also available from the web at m365copilot.com, a spokesperson said.
Some management teams have resisted paying Microsoft to give the 365 Copilot to thousands of employees because they weren’t sure how helpful it would be at the $30 monthly price. Costs will vary for the Copilot Chat depending on what employees do with it, but at least organizations won’t end up paying for nonuse.
“As one customer said to me, this model lets the business value prove itself,” Spataro said.
Microsoft tallies up charges for Copilot Chat based on the tally of “messages” that a client uses. Each “message” costs a penny, according to a blog post. Responses that draw on the client’s proprietary files cost 30 “messages” each. Every action that an agent takes on behalf of employees costs 25 “messages.”
“We’re talking a cent, 2 cents, 30 cents, and that is a very easy way for people to get started,” Spataro said.
Salesforce charges $2 per conversation for its Agentforce AI chat service, where employees can set up automated sales and customer service processes.
The number of people using Microsoft 365 Copilot every day more than doubled quarter over quarter, CEO Satya Nadella said in October, although he did not disclose how many were using it. But sign-ups have been mounting. UBS said in October that it had 50,000 Microsoft 365 Copilot licenses, and in November, Accenture committed to having 200,000 users of the tool.