Kristen Shilton is a national NHL reporter for ESPN.
Apr 22, 2024, 07:00 AM ET
Sixteen wins. That’s all a team needs to hoist the Stanley Cup.
For some clubs, achieving the feat takes decades. For the Vegas Golden Knights, it took six years.
Vegas secured the first Cup victory in franchise history last spring by downing the Winnipeg Jets, Edmonton Oilers and Dallas Stars en route to overwhelming the Florida Panthers in a five-game Final that Vegas controlled from the start.
At times, the Golden Knights made earning those 16 wins look easy. But will Vegas’ playoff run appear as effortless as it attempts to repeat as Cup champion?
Only eight teams in NHL history have won the Cup in consecutive years. Just two (the Pittsburgh Penguins and Tampa Bay Lightning) have accomplished that in this millennium.
This has been a different season for the Golden Knights. Whereas last year Vegas entered the playoffs after a powerhouse regular season (as the Western Conference’s top seed), this time around the Golden Knights battled their way to a late berth and barely approached the 100-point mark. Vegas has toggled between dominant and docile. Its identity hasn’t always been clear — except when it comes to pushing the envelope.
Vegas did just that, chasing after prized skaters at the trade deadline and landing Noah Hanifin and Tomas Hertl for exactly this time of year. What sort of impact will they have on the Golden Knights’ chances to go back-to-back? What do the numbers say about Vegas now compared to last season? And what do players and executives around the league have to say about this year’s squad — and the challenge before them of winning a second Cup?
What the analytics say about Vegas’ chances
The numbers may not lie, exactly. But they don’t always tell the whole truth, either.
That’s the case here when comparing this season’s Golden Knights to the team that hoisted the Stanley Cup last June. On paper, Vegas appears nearly identical to that championship squad.
Let’s break it down:
The 2022-23 Golden Knights averaged 3.26 goals per game (14th), 2.74 goals against per game (22nd), had the 18th-ranked power play (20%), 19th-best penalty kill (77%), were ninth in goal differential (+42), seventh in scoring chances per game (15.1) and eighth in expected goals differential (53.8%), with a collective save percentage of .911 (seventh overall). Vegas finished the season with 111 points and was first in the Pacific Division.
Most of Vegas’ figures in 2023-24 stack up similarly — with a couple of outliers. This season’s team averaged 3.24 goals per game (13th), 2.98 goals against per game (22nd), had the 19th-ranked power play (20%) and the 15th-best penalty kill (80%). Those numbers trend close year-over-year.
The notable differences this season were in goal differential (+21, 12th overall), expected goals (52.1%, 13th) and scoring chances per game (15.6, 14th). Vegas’ goaltending struggled more this season than last as well — the Golden Knights had a collective save percentage of .902 (10th overall), were 20th in goals saved above expectations and 11th in goals against.
That data suggests Vegas should have fared better this season than being the eighth seed in the Western Conference. But this season has revealed two distinct versions of the Golden Knights: one starting the season, and one finishing it.
Vegas opened 2023-24 with an 11-0-1 record and by mid-December had lost consecutive games in regulation just once. The Golden Knights didn’t truly dip until going 1-5-0 from around Christmas into their Winter Classic dud against Seattle on Jan. 1. It was a poor omen for Vegas, though. The Golden Knights never recaptured the dominance they displayed to start the season.
Things got worse after the All-Star break.
Since mid-February, Vegas is averaging 3.44 goals against per game (23rd), allowing 30.5 shots per game (19th) and their goal differential has tanked (-2 overall). Those defensive issues have spotlighted the goaltending problems, particularly from Adin Hill, who has gone 5-8-0, with an .877 save percentage and 3.73 goals-against average.
Vegas is prone to trading opportunities off the rush, ranking 19th in rush scoring chances per game, while giving up the 10th most in the league. The Golden Knights were also 18th in cycle scoring chances, meaning Vegas could be exposed in the playoffs by a team that scores consistently off the rush or has a structure taking away the Golden Knights’ rush attack.
If it weren’t for Vegas’ strong start, the overall numbers would be trending further from where the Golden Knights perched a year ago in most categories. Injuries have once again played a role in Vegas’ season, but its trade deadline additions — specifically Hanifin on the blue line and Anthony Mantha up front — have helped soothe some of what’s ailed it at 5-on-5 and special teams.
The Golden Knights went 11-5-1 since the March 8 deadline passed, and that’s been mostly without their other highly prized acquisition, Hertl, who just debuted in April following February knee surgery.
Logan Thompson has also rebounded in that post-deadline stretch, going 7-2-0 with a .924 save percentage and 2.26 goals-against average. That bodes well for him as Vegas’ potential starter going into the first round over Hill, who had a memorable playoff run last year as the Golden Knights’ unexpected No. 1 in net.
The real question now is: Which Vegas will we see in the postseason? The elite-looking squad that could dominate in all three phases? Or the more vulnerable group that’s susceptible to long stretches of mediocre performance?
Let the real games begin.
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2024 NHL playoffs: The chase for the Stanley Cup is on
Emily Kaplan sets up the chase for the Stanley Cup as the NHL’s second season gets underway.
What the league says about Vegas — and the difficulty of going back-to-back
Perhaps the place to start when it comes to the Golden Knights’ bid for a consecutive title is the difficulty that comes with winning back-to-back championships. The most recent team to do it was the Lightning in 2020 and 2021.
“It was very challenging for I’d say both,” said Seattle Kraken forward Yanni Gourde, who was part of those Lightning teams that won two in a row. “The first was in the bubble, and the bubble was very challenging mentally. It was a lot that first year. The second year, you’re back to regular hockey in the playoffs with the crowd and traveling and all that stuff. They each felt very different in their own way.”
Kraken defenseman Brian Dumoulin, who won back-to-back Cups with the Pens in 2016 and 2017, voiced a similar sentiment to Gourde’s in terms of a team’s mentality. He said winning a Stanley Cup comes with a natural sense of accomplishment, but with the notion it could work one of two ways for a team.
It can serve as the motivation to win a second in a row. Or it could work against a team because there might be some players who were satisfied with their first championship and may not push as hard to go for another one.
Another point Dumoulin raised was how teams that have won a Stanley Cup typically receive more attention and come with fewer questions.
Before a team wins a Stanley Cup, it faces questions about if it is good enough to win it all. Once the team wins, though, it is no longer a secret. It’s now about how does the team continue to win while knowing everyone is trying to figure out ways to not only beat it, but have the answers over a seven-game series if it gets to that point.
“I think it’s like that in the regular season too, putting yourself in a position to win, [trying to get] home-ice advantage, especially with a team like Vegas,” Dumoulin said. “They’re always good at home just like we were in Pittsburgh. … It gets kind of harder and harder to even play in the regular season that following year too, because you have a target on your back. That’s definitely a factor.”
Practically every conversation around the Golden Knights’ title defense starts with how they returned 20 players from last year’s championship team. It’s a group that ranges from reigning Conn Smythe winner Jonathan Marchessault to All-Stars such as Jack Eichel and Alex Pietrangelo to key depth players such as defensive pairing Nicolas Hague and Zach Whitecloud.
Last year saw the Golden Knights win the Pacific Division and the Western Conference to gain home-ice advantage throughout the playoffs. This season, however, they enter the playoffs as a No. 8 seed.
That’s not to say lower seeds cannot pull off upsets. It happened twice in the opening round of last year’s playoffs when the wild-card Florida Panthers upset the top-seeded Boston Bruins, and the then-defending Stanley Cup champion Colorado Avalanche were ousted by the Seattle Kraken.
“I think the biggest thing is how many good teams there are,” Dumoulin said. “Obviously, with the salary cap not going up, teams are spending to the cap. It’s almost every team that has a good quality team and the difference in that first-round game, it’s no easy matchup. It’s going to be a battle no matter who they play.”
Dumoulin’s point about the number of teams that could challenge for the Stanley Cup because they are spending to the cap has merit. Cap Friendly’s data shows the Nashville Predators are the only Western Conference team in a playoff spot with more than $1 million in projected cap space. The next-closest team is the Winnipeg Jets, with less than $500,000 in cap space.
The Golden Knights are among those teams that had no cap space entering the postseason.
Even with their cap limitations, the Golden Knights were extremely active entering the trade deadline. Moving captain Mark Stone to long-term injured reserve was one of the moves that allowed them to free up the necessary space to get Hanifin, Hertl and Mantha.
Part of what has allowed Vegas to have success over the past few years is its ability to assimilate new players. They’ve done it with Eichel, Pietrangelo, Stone and Ivan Barbashev, among others, over the last few years.
But how difficult is it to welcome new faces to a team that’s already good? Especially when that team is trying to win a second Stanley Cup in a row?
Gourde said it starts with how ingrained a team’s culture is within the dressing room. He said that often served as a blueprint to help players mesh with their new teammates.
“When we had a new guy who walked in, he knew what was expected,” Gourde said. “He knew what was needed out of each and every one of us. It was kind of the unwritten rule that this was the standard, that this was the culture and that’s what it was. Each guy that jumped into our lineup in those years was willing to do that and were also willing to go above and beyond to win games.”
Dumoulin said he was interested to see what the Golden Knights would look like once they have their full complement of players. He recalled the last time the Kraken played the Golden Knights in late March. The Golden Knights won 3-1 — and that was without Hertl, Pietrangelo and Stone.
Vegas won last season by relying on its depth. It’s what allowed the Golden Knights to navigate their injuries this season. And Gourde is among those who believe that depth could once again prove vital in the postseason.
“Their fourth line — the way they played,” Gourde said of the Knights’ depth advantage. “The way they switched momentum in games. I thought they pushed teams out, and if your fourth line does that, it gives a lot of success to the other lines that come in. All of sudden, they’re facing a third line that’s been in their zone for a minute because they just grinded a shift through that fourth line who was just all over. That’s the game within the game. It’s those details of setting the next line up.”
Gourde would know. And if the Knights can keep leveraging that depth advantage, they could be playing hockey well into June again this year.
Though it lacks the volume of teams in close proximity like the Eastern Conference wild-card race, the Western derby is no less wild. Sunday’s action will provide yet another clue as to who will earn the final spot in that half of the postseason bracket.
Heading into Sunday’s slate, the Minnesota Wild appear pretty well locked in to the the first wild-card spot, with 79 points and 29 regulation wins through 67 games. But who gets the second one?
Right now it’s the Vancouver Canucks, with 73 points and 24 RW in 66 games. They’re taking on the Utah Hockey Club on Sunday (8 p.m. ET, ESPN+). Once past that game, they’ll play eight games of their final 15 against playoff teams.
Next up are the Calgary Flames, with 71 points and 24 RW in 65 games. They are idle on Sunday and will play against teams currently in playoff position in nine of their final 17 contests.
Speaking of the UHC, following Sunday’s game against the Canucks, seven of the remaining 15 games are against current playoff-positioned clubs.
Stathletes gives the Canucks the best playoff chances of the group (31.1%), followed by the Blues (30.2%), Hockey Club (22.4%) and Flames (20.2%). The “prize” for the team that wins this race is likely a first-round matchup with the Winnipeg Jets, but upsets do happen!
There is a lot of runway left until April 17, the final day of the regular season, and we’ll help you track it all with the NHL playoff watch. As we traverse the final stretch, we’ll provide details on all the playoff races, along with the teams jockeying for position in the 2025 NHL draft lottery.
Points: 62 Regulation wins: 23 Playoff position: N/A Games left: 15 Points pace: 75.9 Next game: vs. WPG (Sunday) Playoff chances: ~0% Tragic number: 20
Points: 45 Regulation wins: 13 Playoff position: N/A Games left: 14 Points pace: 54.3 Next game: vs. CAR (Thursday) Playoff chances: ~0% Tragic number: 1
Race for the No. 1 pick
The NHL uses a draft lottery to determine the order of the first round, so the team that finishes in last place is not guaranteed the No. 1 selection. As of 2021, a team can move up a maximum of 10 spots if it wins the lottery, so only 11 teams are eligible for the No. 1 pick. Full details on the process are here. Matthew Schaefer, a defenseman for the OHL’s Erie Otters, is No. 1 on the draft board.
TOKYO — For two days in Japan, it’s the Hanshin Tigers who have looked like the class of the National League.
In another sign that Japanese baseball has never been better, the Tigers capped a two-game sweep over MLB clubs with a 3-0 win over the Los Angeles Dodgers on Sunday at the Tokyo Dome.
Even more impressive, the Tigers didn’t give up a run in either game. Daichi Ishii recorded the final out, freezing James Outman for strike three on a 95 mph fastball to cap 18 scoreless innings in a row.
“These two days were priceless,” Hanshin manager Kyuji Fujikawa said through an interpreter.
Hanshin tagged two-time Cy Young award winner Blake Snell for three runs in the fourth inning when the first two batters reached base before Teruaki Sato smoked a three-run homer into the right-field seats, where a jubilant Tigers fan club erupted in celebration.
On the mound, right-hander Hiroto Saiki threw five dominant innings, giving up just one hit and one walk while striking out seven. Saiki struck out Dodgers star Shohei Ohtani to start the game and coaxed a harmless popup from the slugger in the fourth.
“Really good ballclub,” Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said. “I thought they played really good defense. They can handle velocity, good with the fastball. The starter [Saiki] had major league stuff. Good command, good split. And then Sato, he looks the part. He’s a really impressive baseball player.”
Saiki was one of the best pitchers in Japan last season, finishing with a 13-3 record and a 1.88 ERA over 167⅔ innings. The Tigers had a 74-63 record last season, which was good for second place in Japan’s Central League.
The Tigers started the two-game sweep with a 3-0 win over the Chicago Cubs on Saturday after 20-year-old lefty Keito Mombetsu threw five perfect innings. No Cubs player reached base until Miguel Amaya smacked a single through the infield in the sixth that just got past the shortstop.
Hanshin also dominated on the basepaths against the Cubs, going 3-for-3 on stolen base attempts.
“They clearly showed they can play at the top level,” Roberts said.
Japanese players have made a huge mark on MLB, particularly over the past three decades. Former Mariners star Ichiro Suzuki was recently elected to the Hall of Fame, and this week’s Tokyo Series features five Japanese players, including three on the Dodgers with Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Roki Sasaki.
Skenes is coming off a dominant performance in his first season in the majors. The 22-year-old right-hander went 11-3 with a 1.96 ERA in 23 starts for Pittsburgh in 2024, winning the NL Rookie of the Year Award.
The Pirates posted a video on social media on Saturday that showed Shelton informing Skenes of his decision.
In the video, Skenes walks into Shelton’s office and answers a couple questions about how his bullpen went and how he was feeling. Shelton later got up from behind his desk and informed Skenes he would be starting March 27 at Miami. He shook hands with Skenes and gave him a hug.
“Congrats, brother,” Shelton said to the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 draft.
“Appreciate it,” Skenes responded.
The 22-year-old Skenes has been working on incorporating a cutter and a running two-seam fastball to go along with his blazing four-seam fastball.