Carrier, the century-old inventor of the air conditioner, is moving on to the home heat pump
Heat pumps are becoming more popular for residential housing with energy prices increasing and the need to reduce use of fossil fuel heating systems.
Andrew Aitchison | In Pictures | Getty Images
In case you haven’t noticed, heat pumps are hot. Although these devices, which use electricity to generate both air conditioning and heat, have been around for decades, the latest models are much more efficient and cost-effective alternatives to conventional fossil-fuel furnaces and air conditioners.
But there are other reasons why heat pumps are fast becoming popular with homeowners. The federal government, as well as an increasing number of states, are offering consumers attractive tax credits and rebates for buying and installing heat pump systems as a way to reduce climate-warming greenhouse gas emissions and propel the transition to renewable energy.
All of this is transforming Carrier Global, the nearly 100-year-old manufacturer whose founder, Willis Carrier, invented air conditioning. Over the past year, the Palm Beach Gardens, Florida-based company has been repositioning itself to capitalize on the fast-growing market for heat pumps and other sustainable heating, ventilating and air conditioning (HVAC) technologies.
“We all know that sustainability is a megatrend,” Carrier Global Chairman and CEO David Gitlin told a group of investors in February. “HVAC has to have a critical seat at the table.”
After being spun off from United Technologies — its parent since 1979 — in 2020, and then divesting several non-HVAC businesses, Carrier made its biggest bet yet on the heat pump boom when it acquired Germany’s Viessmann Climate Solutions for roughly $13 billion last April. In addition to proprietary heat pump technology, Viessmann offers renewable energy capabilities and home battery storage, as well as smart home system controls and applications that can be integrated to drive energy efficiency.
“HVAC is at an inflection point right now, with a tremendous shift toward electrification, going from fossil fuel-burning boilers and furnaces to heat pumps,” said Hakan Yilmaz, Carrier’s chief technology and sustainability officer. “In addition, the cooling side of HVAC is expected to triple by 2050, because 2.8 billion people live in hot climate zones and only about 8% have access to HVAC today,” he said. The massive scale and massive consumption of the energy resiliency issue, Yilmaz says, puts the HVAC industry in a position to capitalize.
Heat pumps have a history dating back to 1850s
The thermodynamic science behind heat pumps was developed in the 1850s, when the first ones were invented, and they’ve been used in homes since the 1960s. Heat pumps use electricity to transfer heat from a cool space to a warm space, making the cool space cooler and the warm space warmer. Many of today’s models are three to five times more efficient than fossil-fuel furnaces, and work well even in extremely cold and hot weather.
The most common type is the air-source heat pump system, comprising an outdoor unit — which resembles a conventional central AC device — and an indoor unit that hooks up to either a blower that circulates warm or cool air through ducts and vents or to one or more ductless mini-splits installed in rooms throughout a house.
14 February 2024, Saxony, Leipzig: Michael Kretschmer (r, CDU), Minister President of Saxony, talks to Viessmann employee Sebastian Kowalski about a heat pump at the Haus-Garten-Freizeit trade fair. Kretschmer takes part in the East Trade Policy Forum.
Picture Alliance | Picture Alliance | Getty Images
Compared to a gas boiler, heat pumps reduce GHG emissions by 20% when operating on fossil fuel-generated electricity and as much as 80% when operating on cleaner electricity, according to the International Energy Agency. Residential and commercial buildings account for 30% of global energy consumption and produce 26% of energy-related GHG emissions, per the IEA.
In 2023, air-source heat pumps outsold fossil-fuel furnaces for the second year in a row, according to AHRI, the trade association representing HVAC manufacturers. Rewiring America, a nonprofit advocate for mass-scale electrification, estimates that currently, 16% of U.S. homes use heat pumps for heating and cooling. In September, the U.S. Climate Alliance, a bipartisan coalition of 25 governors, agreed to collectively reach 20 million heat pump installations by 2030, with the aim of ensuring at least 40% of benefits flow to disadvantaged communities.
In the U.S., so far cold states are leading the way
Although heat pumps have become popular for air conditioning in southern states, Maine has the highest rate of adoption, installing 100,000 units in households two years ahead of schedule and aiming to hook up another 175,000 by 2027. That dispels the notion, often promulgated by the oil and gas industry and utilities, that heat pumps don’t work well in below-freezing temperatures, thus requiring a fossil-fuel furnace as backup.
“That’s old news,” said Tobie Stanger, senior home and appliances writer for Consumer Reports. “There are new heat pumps designed for cold weather that allow them to go to five degrees effectively,” she said, adding that they’re widely used in Nordic and European countries. A Consumer Reports analysis of the efficacy of heat pumps in cold climates found that “even amid bone-chilling cold” they use far less energy than other types of heating systems. According to Dave Lis, director of technology market transformation at Northeast Energy Efficiency Partnerships (NEEP), air-source heat pumps can work as a home’s main heating system in almost any climate.
Carrier sells 10 different heat pumps, with various energy capacities and price points, and plans to add models made by Viessmann, which already has a presence in the U.S. market. But beyond the company’s sustainable energy technology and product portfolio, “one of the reasons we acquired Viessmann was because of its experience in training dealers and installers and helping customers understand the benefits of its products,” said Milena Oliveira, Carrier’s chief marketing and communications officer.
Leveraging that knowledge, Carrier is providing its nationwide network of around 2,100 authorized dealers training and education programs, as well as advertising and promotional support, not only regarding heat pumps but also ancillary products, such as smart thermostats and energy storage batteries. “Home energy management is a huge component that we want to capitalize on,” Oliveira said, as dealers “shift their mindsets from selling products to selling solutions and components.”
Mark Prodan, the operations manager of M&M Plumbing and Heating, a Carrier dealership in the northern Michigan town of Indian River, said that M&M’s heat pump business grew by nearly 35% last year. “This year it will probably be up another 40% to 50%,” he said.
Prodan said that he typically has to educate customers about the energy efficiency and cost-effectiveness of heat pumps, as well as their environmental benefits. “There’s a general feeling that people want to go with a little bit cleaner energy, but once you educate them on what heat pumps can do, they’re usually very receptive,” he said.
Carrier on-site and remote training of M&M’s sales and service staff have helped, Prodan said. “They have a website with knowledge-based videos, calculators that show customers their cost savings and an app for our service guys that can scan a bar code to pull up information and manuals.”
Getting tax credits and rebates while they last
Between now and the end of 2032, homeowners can get a 30% federal tax credit for the purchase and installation of Energy Star-certified air-source heat pumps — from Carrier and other brands — up to $2,000 annually. That includes any related insulation, ducting, mini-splits and electricity upgrades.
Many states and local utilities offer additional financial incentives, some tied to income levels. Connecticut, for instance, offers a rebate of up to $15,000 for qualifying heat pumps; New York State issues rebates through utility companies that can amount to between $8,000 and $12,000; Maine offers between $4,000 and $8,000. The Energy Star website features a “rebate finder” for obtaining information by zip code.
The cost of installing a heat pump system — depending on the brand, size, where you live and complexity of the job — can be upward of $20,000. Consumer Reports member surveys found that the overall median price paid for the purchase and installation of a ducted heat pump between 2018 and 2023 was $8,348. Mini-splits can range from $2,000 to $6,000 per unit, plus installation.
Besides rebates and tax credits, heat pumps can generate savings by eliminating the cost of fossil fuels, even when factoring in the price of electricity. Rewiring America calculated that homeowners switching from inefficient HVAC systems that run on fuel oil, propane or traditional electric resistance (like baseboard heat or electric furnaces) can save around $1,000 per year.
For 2023, Carrier reported sales of $22.1 billion, up 8% from $20.4 billion in 2022. Its guidance for 2024 projected sales growing to $26.5 billion. The stock is up 30% over the past year, though it is stalled in 2024.
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“This is a big year for us as a company,” Gitlin said in a recent call with analysts. “We will start realizing the tremendous benefits from the combination of Viessmann and as a sustainability-focused, higher growth, pure-play company.”
“When I see companies making big changes to their [product] portfolio and divestitures, that puts a premium on management knowhow and capability,” said Deane Dray of RBC Capital Markets. “I like how they’re doing it,” he said. “The heat pump [focus] does not just make economic sense, but the impact on its carbon footprint is a good part of the story as well.”
Carrier is targeting net-zero GHG emissions in its own operations by 2030 and across its value chain by 2050. The recent stock retreat, Dray says, doesn’t concern him and over the longer term, he anticipates higher margins, more services and more aftermarket revenues. “It’s all lining up nicely,” he said.
Volvo has been steadily applying its Scandinavian minimalist ethos to its EV lineup, as the all-new EX90 SUV is set to launch in the US. But the brand also wanted to significantly spruce up the EX90’s older sibling, the XC90 – the brand’s most popular vehicle since its debut and the de facto family car for hordes of Americans and Europeans. This month, Volvo invited Electrek to test-drive the revised XC90 on its home turf and experience its new and improved “electrified” functionality. Here’s how it went.
Introduced in 2003, the XC90 was the brand’s first foray into the SUV market. It has been modified in recent years as a hybrid and plug-in, but it’s still the company’s top seller, despite almost a decade since its last full redesign. For 2025, the XC90 comes in three variants: two mild hybrids, the B5 and B6, and a T8 PHEV – which the company says is one of the few plug-ins with a seven-seat option, giving drivers space to haul kids or gear on short daily trips with its limited 33 miles of electric range.
Of course, restyling the XC90 itself after all of this time sidesteps the brand’s original goal of 100% electric cars by 2030. That’s no longer the case, as Volvo has backtracked, as has Mercedes, with a new target of 90% electrified vehicles by the same date. Clearly, that’s not the same thing.
First-drive impressions – safe, comfortable, and very Volvo-esque
Mid-November, Volvo flew journalists out from the US, with me flying over from France to Copenhagen for four days of quality time with the new variants and meet-and-greets with designers, propulsion experts, and interior specialists. From Copenhagen, we paired up in twos for a full day and a half of driving from Denmark across the famed Oresund Bridge on the border between Sweden and Denmark (fans of the Swedish series The Bridge will know it well) to cruise around the mellow Swedish countryside, stopping by fishing villages, a chocolate factory, and into Malmö on a gloomy afternoon, as the sun started to set at 3:30 p.m.
The T8 plug-in – which we drove along with the B5 hybrid – is the brand’s most powerful and efficient of the XC90s, offering 310 horsepower with 295 pound-feet of torque and a 0-to-60 mph time of 5 seconds. It has an inline four-cylinder gas engine with an electric motor and 400-volt three-layer lithium ion 18.8 kWh battery with 14.7 kWh of usable energy. The fact that drivers can do most of their short daily drives on pure electric power is a plus, of course, but you need to put in the time to recharge it. Its 6.4 kW onboard charger takes five hours to go from empty to 100% charged (or 10 hours on an ordinary 120-volt outlet).
As for the test drive, rural southern Sweden is picturesque, but the course itself was flat, unvaried, and sparsely populated except for our roving caravan of some 20 beige SUVs. But we had plenty of time to tinker with the infotainment and the advanced driver assist systems – including loads of state-of-the-art bonuses like intelligent speed assist, pilot assist, parking assist, and a truly incredible head-up display. It also comes with five drive modes, including off-road, but this vehicle is about quiet luxury, not thrill rides.
Of course, testing the electric range was a short-lived experience, so after those 33 or so miles, we spent the rest of the day gas-guzzling via a high-performance four-cylinder petrol engine with advanced e-boost and turbo technology. Honestly, it was hard to feel the difference, and the transition from electric to gas was quick and unnoticeable despite trying out some fast acceleration (smooth as butter) and maneuvering. Plus the interior of the car feels like a cocoon – it’s so quiet. The refresh includes enhanced sound insulation and suspension, so it’s like you’re traveling in a safe, protective Scandi-bubble. And that’s Volvo’s goal.
Exterior refresh – lots of tweaks, new wheels, new color
Looking at the outside of the car, the new XC90’s exterior changes offer a fresh new take on the brand’s “Thor’s Hammer” T-shaped headlights, flanking a new asymmetric grille, layered with the Volvo trademark. The new front sheet metal has seen a few tweakments, with an overall cleaner, fresher look, while the rest of the profile looks relatively unchanged. Of course, a proper refresh comes with a new color and some new wheels, and there are new designs in 20-, 21-, and 22-inch sizes, along with a new red paint option called 739 Mulberry Red. While we tested the “Bright Dusk” T8, the deep Mulberry Red version was on view at a mid-drive event, and it was a nice surprise from the grays and beiges.
The driving experience – smooth, safe, and so very quiet
The most significant upgrade to the XC90 is to the interior, which has been revamped to accommodate an 11.2-inch infotainment screen complete with built-in Google apps. Volvo says it has a higher pixel density and faster response time than earlier versions. Both the EX90 and the XC90 get the latest version of Volvo’s Google-based infotainment system with a ton of updated menu items that, in theory, allow you to gain access to commonly used functions with fewer steps. But do people only want access to opening the glove box via the infotainment system? I guess that’s all part of the minimalism. While Volvo says it is as intuitive as a smartphone, there is a small learning curve if you’re not already familiar with it.
Stepping into the vehicle, comfort is clearly the focus, with Volvo touting it as an “upgraded Scandinavian living room.” It leans into a premium feel without any garish touches, relying on a rich, tasteful, unfettered design. It feels good. New to the XC90 are the tailored dashboard in grained charcoal vinyl and recycled textile decors. Two new stunning “responsibly produced” upholsteries are added, in new bio-attributed leather-free Nordico and recycled-textile Herringbone Weave. And just like the EX90, this vehicle gets the new Bowers & Wilkins speaker mesh for the instrument panel and door panels, and the sound quality of the system is rich and crisp.
T8 Vehicle specs
- Seating capacity: six or seven
- Upgraded powertrain (T8): turbocharged 2.0-liter four-cylinder PHEV
- Horsepower (T8): 455
- Peak torque (T8): 523ft. lb.
- Pure electric range (T8): 33 miles
- Transmission: eight-speed automatic
- Drivetrain: all-wheel drive
- Fuel economy, EPA: 58 MPGe
- Co2 emission, combined: 30 g/km (WLTP)
- Acceleration 0-60 mph: 5 seconds
- Overall length: 195 inches
- Wheelbase: 117.5 inches
- Height: 69.6–69.7 inches
- Width (not including mirrors): 84.3 inches
- Curb weight, PHEV 7 seater: 1,565 lb.
- Maximum towing capacity: up to 5,000 pounds when properly equipped
- Fuel tank capacity: 18.8 US gallons
- AC charging time 0–100%: 5 hours (240v, 16a)/10 hours (120v, 16a
- On-sale date: end of 2024
Final thoughts on the XC90
The new facelift is pretty much that, loads of superficial changes to the interior and exterior, as well as a new user experience and a larger, faster touchscreen, all designed to stretch out this hybrid a few more years before the EX90 takes over completely. Like its EV sibling, the focus is on a safe, comfortable, luxurious vehicle to haul kids and loads of gear around, with a few ecological Scandi touches that give it special appeal.
The XC90 competes in a crowded three-row midsize luxury SUV market against the Audi Q7, Lincoln Aviator, and Genesis GV80, among so many others. But saying that, plug-in hybrids like the XC90 T8 in the category are a rare breed, giving you the option to take your daily drives on pure electric before switching to fuel. But with a range of 33 miles, you of course won’t get very far. Plus while Volvo is pushing the seven-seat option, it seemed a bit tight to me, and only optional for kids or very quick trips, not big road trips.
Set to go on sale next month, prices for the B5 mild hybrids start at $58,450, with the XC90 T8 AWD plug-in seven-seater starting at a very reasonable $73,000 for the quality and pure good looks of the thing. Owned by China’s Geely, Volvo tells me that all of its US-bound XC90s will be made in Sweden. Volvo is targeting the US market for the XC90, followed by China, and thirdly, Europe.
Size-wise, I guess it’s perfect for loading up your car at IKEA. In Sweden, we certainly passed many IKEAs, and it was tempting. With a pure electric range of 33 miles, I suppose you could make at least part of the trip before having to switch over to gas power. The whole concept is a bit of a conundrum, but Volvo says it is giving the people what they want – a plug-in hybrid SUV that can go the distance – and it’s betting this vehicle will be a big winner for years to come.
Photos: courtesy Volvo
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Digital render of NEOM’s The Line project in Saudi Arabia
The Line, NEOM
In Saudi Arabia’s northwestern desert, a sprawling construction site replete with cranes and pile drivers sits encircled by a recently-built road. A pair of tracks cuts through the site like deep gashes through the sand, comprising the spine of what planners say will be a high-speed rail system.
The skeletal infrastructure forms the foundations of The Line, a multi-billion dollar high-tech city that its architects say will eventually house 9 million people between two 106-mile long glass skyscrapers more than 1,600 feet high.
The project, whose estimated cost is in the hundreds of billions, is just one of the hyper-futuristic venues planned in Neom, the brainchild of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and a region that the kingdom hopes will bring millions of new residents to Saudi Arabia and revolutionize living and technology in the country. It’s a core pillar of Vision 2030, which aims to diversify the Saudi economy away from oil revenues and create new jobs and industries for its burgeoning young population.
The cost of Neom has been estimated to be as high as $1.5 trillion. In the years since it was announced, Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, the mammoth sovereign wealth fund now overseeing $925 billion in assets, has poured billions into overseas investments, with ever-increasing waves of foreign investors flying to the kingdom to raise cash.
This year, however, has seen a sharp change in direction in terms of spending, with a stated emphasis on keeping investments at home along with reports of cutting costs on megaprojects like those in Neom. The changes come as the Saudi deficit grows and the outlook for oil demand, along with global oil prices, sees sustained lows.
Construction for The Line project in Saudi Arabia’s NEOM, October 2024
Giles Pendleton, The Line at NEOM
That begs the question: does Saudi Arabia have enough money to meet its lofty goals? Or will it have to be more flexible to make its spending trajectory sustainable?
One Gulf-based financier with years of experience in the kingdom told CNBC: “The PIF’s pivot towards domestic investments, widely acknowledged but now officially admitted, suggests that there is still a lot of spending needed. Saudi Arabia has poured tens of billions into projects that have yet to hint of any financial returns.”
The financier spoke anonymously as they were not authorized to speak to the press.
Andrew Leber, a researcher at Tulane University who focuses on the political economy of the Middle East, believes that the current pace of spending won’t last.
“The number of ‘we pay up front and hope for economic returns later’ giga projects that are currently underway is not sustainable,” Leber said.
“With that being said,” he added, “the Saudi monarchy has shown itself to be somewhat flexible whenever economic realities assert themselves. I do think that eventually, a number of projects will be quietly shelved in order to bring its fiscal outlays back into greater sustainability.”
Digital render of NEOM’s The Line project in Saudi Arabia
The Line, NEOM
Saudi Arabia in October cut its growth forecasts and raised its budget deficit estimates for the fiscal years 2024 to 2026 as it expects a period of higher spending and lower projected oil revenues. Real gross domestic product is now expected to grow 0.8% this year, a dramatic drop from a previous estimate of 4.4%, according to the ministry of finance.
The kingdom’s economy also swung dramatically from a budget surplus of $27.68 billion in 2022 to a deficit of $21.6 billion in 2023 as it ramped up public spending and decreased oil production due to its OPEC+ supply cut agreement. Its government forecasts a deficit of $21.1 billion for 2024, projecting revenue at $312.5 billion and expenditures at $333.5 billion.
Saudi authorities expect that the budget will remain in deficit for the next several years as it pursues its Vision 2030 plans, but they add that they are fully prepared for this.
“Our non-oil revenues have grown significantly, now it covers about 37% of expenditure. That’s a significant diversification, and that gives you a lot of comfort that you can maneuver and be stable despite the fluctuation in oil price,” Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan told CNBC in October. “Our aim is to make sure that our plans are stable and predictable.”
“We are not going to blink, we have significant fiscal resource under our disposal, and we are very disciplined in our fiscal position,” the minister said.
Saudi Arabia has an A/A-1 credit rating with a positive outlook from S&P Global Ratings and an A+ rating with a stable outlook from Fitch. That combined with high foreign currency reserves — $456.97 billion as of September, a 4% percent increase year-on-year, according to the country’s central bank — puts the kingdom in a comfortable place to manage a deficit, economists told CNBC.
Riyadh is successfully issuing bonds, tapping debt markets for more than $35 billion so far this year. The kingdom has also rolled out a series of reforms to boost and de-risk foreign investment and diversify revenue streams, which S&P Global said in September “will continue to improve Saudi Arabia’s economic resilience and wealth.”
When asked if the kingdom’s spending trajectory is sustainable, Al-Jadaan replied: “Absolutely, yes,” adding that the government recently published its numbers for the next three years and that “we think it is very sustainable.”
Still, many analysts outside the kingdom, as well as individuals working within the kingdom and on NEOM projects, are skeptical of the megaprojects’ feasibility. Reports that some projects have been dramatically cut down — in the case of the Line, its size target slashed from 106 miles to 1.5 miles and population target down from 1.5 million by 2030 to less than 300,000 — attest to that concern on a higher level.
Neom executives acknowledge that the current phase of work on The Line is for a building length of 1.5 miles — which would still make it the longest building in the world. However, the eventual goal of 106 miles has not changed, they say, stressing that cities are not built overnight and that construction is continuing apace.
For Tarik Solomon, chairman emeritus at the American Chamber of Commerce in Saudi Arabia, “it’s promising to see transparency and some project cutbacks.”
“The Kingdom’s rising external borrowing reflects challenges with Vision 2030 feasibility,” he told CNBC.
“Though debt remains manageable at 26.5% of GDP, continued small pressures add up, underscoring the need for fiscal discipline and achievable goals.”
Solomon pointed to the desire of many Saudi residents for improvements to the infrastructure they use in their daily lives — like Riyadh’s public transport, network connectivity, schools, and health care.
“The road to resilience for Saudi Arabia isn’t in figuring out ski slopes in the desert but in building with innovation, complexity, and the courage to pursue what’s truly impactful,” he said.
Tesla and Rivian have been embroiled in a lawsuit in which the former accused the latter of having stolen battery technology by poaching Tesla employees.
It sounds like the two automakers are finally about to settle the lawsuit, which has been going on for 4 years.
In 2020, Tesla filed a lawsuit against Rivian over allegedly stealing trade secrets by hiring former Tesla employees and encouraging them to bring documents. Rivian has denied the allegations.
When Tesla filed the lawsuit, it wasn’t clear what trade secrets Tesla was claiming Rivian had stolen. However, we noted that the employees listed in the lawsuits were two recruiters, an EHS manager, and a manager of Tesla’s charging networks.
The automaker claimed that these employees brought “documents consisting of highly sensitive trade secret, confidential, and proprietary engineering information” when they went to work for Rivian.
A year later, Tesla expanded the lawsuit, claiming more specifically that Rivian was “stealing the core technology for its next-generation batteries.”
At first, the companies tried to settle out of court, but it didn’t work out, so the lawsuit was moved to court last year.
Over a year later, we now learn that Tesla had notified the court that it expects to file to get the lawsuit dismissed after reaching a conditional agreement with Rivian. The company didn’t disclose the details of the settlement (via Bloomberg):
Tesla didn’t disclose specifics about the agreement in a court filing, but told a California state judge that it expects to seek dismissal of the case by Dec. 24 upon satisfactory completion of the terms.
Neither Tesla nor Rivian have commented on the reported settlement.
While Tesla has claimed that it somewhat open-sourced its patents, we have previously noted that it’s not exactly the case. Tesla claims to let other companies use its patented technology as long as they themselves don’t sue them over patent rights.
And in this specific case, Tesla alleges that Rivian has specifically hired employees to steal technologies. Again, Rivian has denied the allegation.
Electrek’s Take
The terms are unknown, but in similar cases, it often involves things like some level of access to make sure that no proprietary technology is being used or has been used.
The lawsuit is not exactly clear, but based on the timeline and the allegations of “next-gen batteries”, Tesla could have been talking about its 4680 battery cells, although those are cells. It could also be the structural battery pack.
Rivian is expected to use a taller 4695 battery from LG Energy Solutions for its next-generation vehicles.
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