Could flights to Rwanda bring about the change in fortunes this frustrated prime minister so desperately needs?
The polls remain stubbornly unmoving, suggesting nothing Rishi Sunak has done so far has captured the public’s imagination, while the Labour Party, which has promised to junk the Rwanda policy altogether, appears to be on track for a significant win at the general election.
But something the prime minister said during today’s press conference could give a hint at the kind of election he wants to fight.
In response to the series of questions posed to him by journalists in the room, Mr Sunak said: “We’ve got to finish the job.”
A phrase that we may hear more and more as the election campaign ramps up.
The Rwanda bill– a policy first proposed by Boris Johnson – is in fact more popular than the Labour Party might like to admit.
In a YouGov survey from June last year, those polled were 42% in favour of it compared with 39% against.
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PM adamant Rwanda flights will happen
However, there lies one big elephant in the room: the Conservatives are no longer the most trusted party on immigration.
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If we look at recent YouGov polling, 21% of people think Labour would handle asylum and immigration best, whereas just 14% believe the same of the Conservatives.
Admittedly this is not exactly a ringing endorsement of the public’s faith in either party, but it is especially challenging for Mr Sunak.
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‘Success when boats have been stopped’
Clearly, although a significant section of the UK’s population may agree with the Conservatives on the premise of the policy, they do not trust them to deliver on their promises.
And it is that loss of trust that may mean today’s press conference has little effect on the public’s views of the prime minister, his party and the policy as a whole.
Insisting that 200 case workers, 150 judges and 25 court rooms are available to wade through the expected tidal wave of legal challenges may sound impressive to some, but are the disenchanted voters who once voted for a Tory Party promising to crack down on migration still listening?
Today the prime minister told the nation: “Labour’s priority is stopping the planes, not stopping the boats” – this attack line might be catchy, but if flights of asylum seekers take off to Rwanda in July and August (something the prime minister insists will be the case) and the polls remain much the same, Mr Sunak has a much broader problem than immigration.
Sir Keir Starmer has insisted the “vast majority of farmers” will not be affected by changes to Inheritance Tax (IHT) ahead of a protest outside parliament on Tuesday.
It follows Chancellor Rachel Reeves announcing a 20% inheritance tax that will apply to farms worth more than £1m from April 2026, where they were previously exempt.
But the prime minister looked to quell fears as he resisted calls to change course.
Speaking from the G20 summit in Brazil, he said: “If you take a typical case of a couple wanting to pass a family farm down to one of their children, which would be a very typical example, with all of the thresholds in place, that’s £3m before any inheritance tax is paid.”
The comments come as thousands of farmers, including celebrity farmer Jeremy Clarkson, are due to descend on Whitehall on Tuesday to protest the change.
And 1,800 more will take part in a “mass lobby” where members of the National Farmers’ Union (NFU) will meet their MPs in parliament to urge them to ask Ms Reeves to reconsider the policy.
Speaking to broadcasters, Sir Keir insisted the government is supportive of farmers, pointing to a £5bn investment announced for them in the budget.
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He said: “I’m confident that the vast majority of farms and farmers will not be affected at all by that aspect of the budget.
“They will be affected by the £5bn that we’re putting into farming. And I’m very happy to work with farmers on that.”
Sir Keir’s spokesman made a similar argument earlier on Monday, saying the government expects 73% of farms to not be affected by the change.
Environment, Farming and Rural Affairs Secretary Steve Reed said only about 500 out of the UK’s 209,000 farms would be affected, according to Treasury calculations.
However, that number has been questioned by several farming groups and the Conservatives.
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Farming industry is feeling ‘betrayed’ – NFU boss
Government figures ‘misleading’
The NFU said the real number is about two-thirds, with its president Tom Bradshaw calling the government’s figures “misleading” and accusing it of not understanding the sector.
The Country Land and Business Association (CLA) said the policy could affect 70,000 farms.
Conservative shadow farming minister Robbie Moore accused the government last week of “regurgitating” figures that represent “past claimants of agricultural property relief, not combined with business property relief” because he said the Treasury does not have that data.
Agricultural property relief (APR) currently provides farmers 100% relief from paying inheritance tax on agricultural land or pasture used for rearing livestock or fish, and can include woodland and buildings, such as farmhouses, if they are necessary for that land to function.
Farmers can also claim business property relief (BPR), providing 50% or 100% relief on assets used by a trading business, which for farmers could include land, buildings, plant or machinery used by the business, farm shops and holiday cottages.
APR and BPR can often apply to the same asset, especially farmed land, but APR should be the priority, however BPR can be claimed in addition if APR does not cover the full value (e.g. if the land has development value above its agricultural value).
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Mr Moore said the Department for the Environment, Farming and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) and the Treasury have disagreed on how many farms will be impacted “by as much as 40%” due to the lack of data on farmers using BPR.
Lib Dem MP Tim Farron said last week1,400 farmers in Cumbria, where he is an MP, will be affected and will not be able to afford to pay the tax as many are on less than the minimum wage despite being asset rich.