Nathan MacKinnon is having the best season of his career, but he still gets overshadowed
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Ryan S. Clark, NHL reporter
DENVER — Forty-three seconds. That is how long it took Nathan MacKinnon to score the goal that extended his home points streak to 35 games.
The fact he scored that quickly is a reflection of how MacKinnon is a perpetual threat. That he had a point in every home game entering the March 26 contest with the Montreal Canadiens while simultaneously leading the NHL in points is another way to measure what has made the Colorado Avalanche‘s superstar center so indomitable this season.
Yet it was the way he scored the goal that offers insight into why this season has been the best and most consistently productive campaign of his 11-year career.
Ever since he first burst into the hockey world’s consciousness at age 14, many superlatives have been used to describe MacKinnon’s game. Now that he’s 28, one word that has been used quite a bit this season is patience. The goal he scored against the Canadiens to keep his streak alive was an example of that patience. Initially, the pass he played to Jonathan Drouin was deflected and appeared to be going out of the zone.
Paying attention to the puck meant nobody had eyes on MacKinnon. He used his surroundings to float in a space in the Canadiens’ zone that, with his speed, gave him the runway and time to get back on defense to prevent an odd-skater rush or to be in a position to place his opponents in a compromising spot if the Avs recovered the puck.
What occurred was the latter.
All it took was two passes before Canadiens goaltender Sam Montembeault was faced with a one-timer from an unmarked MacKinnon that was launched from the right faceoff circle.
This is what MacKinnon’s version of patience looks like.
“It’s crazy because for me when I watch hockey and when you’re a defenseman and you see him come, defensemen are going to sag back because they don’t want to get beat wide,” Drouin said. “I think that’s why he’s opened up with his playmaking. He has time to delay and it’s because the D are respecting him. It would be too if I were a defenseman.”
MacKinnon’s home points streak ended two days later against the New York Rangers. He followed that game up by scoring four points in a comeback win against the Nashville Predators that clinched the Avalanche’s seventh consecutive playoff berth.
The most points in a season in franchise history. The most points on home ice in a season in franchise history. A home points streak that finished second in NHL history behind Wayne Gretzky’s 40 games in 1988-89. A pair of 19-game point streaks in the same season, a first in NHL history.
These are more than just statements. These bullet points are ammunition for the questions that have been fired off about MacKinnon as of late. What is it about this season? Exactly what has MacKinnon done to be in position to have the best individual campaign of his career?
And, could this be the year MacKinnon finally wins the Hart Trophy that has tantalizingly eluded him?
“It’s just been a lot of work, I think, and there’s new things I just try to get better at,” MacKinnon said. “Also, I’ve been healthy so far. Knock on wood. Every year it seems like I get hurt and hopefully that doesn’t happen. I feel great. My body’s good. My mind’s good and things are just going my way for whatever reason.”
THERE IS NO question MacKinnon is the finished product. What that product is, however, is still a bit of a question. Is he a pure goal scorer? A playmaker? A power forward? Or is it that he’s all three at once, sometimes on the same shift?
MacKinnon had a moment in that game against the Canadiens when his multiple attributes were on display in a single shift. Upon entering the zone, MacKinnon had Canadiens defenseman Mike Matheson immediately in front of him. He deked the puck between Matheson’s legs before Kaiden Guhle came over to help by trying to poke the puck away. That’s when MacKinnon deftly lifted his stick and let the puck slide past Guhle before firing a backhanded shot on net.
The Ball Arena crowd’s reaction to his latest trademark moment gave MacKinnon, who already has a few nicknames, a new one in “The Wizard of Ahhs.”
“I think it is tough to describe him because he can do all these things,” Avalanche right winger Mikko Rantanen said. “He’s a shooter. He can be a playmaker. He has a lot of goals, but he also has almost 80 assists or something like that. I can’t even describe one type of player. He does all of it, which is nice.”
Zach Parise had another way to describe MacKinnon.
“A freak. That’s what he is,” Parise said.
Parise’s nine years with the Minnesota Wild allowed him to witness MacKinnon’s evolution from rookie to budding star to one of the NHL’s top players. After all those years playing against MacKinnon, now he knows what it’s like to play with him.
“I remember coming into this building and being matched against their line,” Parise said. “And after the eighth shift of getting hemmed in your zone, you’re just like, ‘My God.’ I remember joking and I think it was to [Gabriel Landeskog]. I just jokingly said, ‘Will you stop? Will you stop coming on the ice against me?!?’ It was like every shift, those guys are flying down the zone and I can’t even breathe out here. It was tough. It was just like a different level.”
Parise said Pittsburgh Penguins center Sidney Crosby was the standard as the NHL’s best player for several years. Over time, players such as the Edmonton Oilers‘ duo of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl and Tampa Bay Lightning winger Nikita Kucherov could be included in that discussion.
Parise believed MacKinnon already was in that stratosphere before joining the Avs. But seeing him every day in practice instead of just the four annual regular-season Avs-Wild games gave Parise a greater appreciation for what MacKinnon was doing.
“There’s not a lot of guys that bring everything to the table, but bring it every game,” Parise said. “That’s what’s impressed me the most. I think it’s been contagious throughout the whole locker room, but it starts up top with him, Cale [Makar] and Mikko.”
Details are everything for elite athletes in any sport, and MacKinnon is no different.
A massive NBA fan, MacKinnon talked about how he listened to LeBron James‘ new podcast and the biggest item that stuck with him was how the Los Angeles Lakers superstar stressed the need to go all-in on every aspect of one’s game.
MacKinnon was already that way. He’s arguably the NHL’s most well-known martinet when it comes to how seriously he takes nutrition. He has a performance rehabilitation specialist whom he credits with shaping his body. He appreciates rest to the point where there are nights when he’s in bed reading a book and falls asleep before 10 p.m.
He even applies this to morning skates and practices. It’s not enough that he’s practicing. He’s usually one of the first skaters on the ice and one of the last players to leave the facility. Even at practice, there are players who go through drills at gradual paces, whereas MacKinnon’s settings are seemingly only fast and even faster.
Pregame warmups are no different. MacKinnon goes through his individual routines as if there were someone with a clipboard and a stopwatch grading his performance.
MacKinnon’s need to be the best is the opening Avalanche coach Jared Bednar used to have a discussion with him about applying that commitment into the defensive side of his game. Bednar’s point to MacKinnon was that being a well-rounded forward who can check another team’s top line is only going to lead to more opportunities to regain possession.
“He has the ability, right? The quickness, the size, the strength, the smarts to be able to check,” Bednar said. “Really, the thing we try to sell to our team is the better we check, the more we are going to have the puck and the more we get to play with the puck and be dangerous offensively. That’s the sole purpose of checking the right way. Not just to keep the puck out of your net but to go create at the other end.”
Being a consistent two-way player has led to MacKinnon being trusted with so many defensive zone faceoffs that his statistics are in the neighborhood of venerable two-way centers such as Mikael Granlund, Roope Hintz, Sam Reinhart and even Crosby, per Natural Stat Trick.
“With Bedsy, he’s always pushing me to be the best I can,” MacKinnon said. “Even this season, a lot has been going on obviously. But there’s things we talk about every day whether it is 6-on-5 coverage or 5-on-5 coverage. Tracking, reloading, things like that. I’m definitely open to hear his opinion. I think he’s a great coach who’s always making me better for sure.”
IT’S BEEN 18 months since MacKinnon’s last Instagram post, while his most recent post on X came back in 2018, when it was still called Twitter.
“I’m not trying to be the cool guy on Instagram showing off different things,” he said. “I just want to be known for my hard work and dedication to the game.”
MacKinnon has no idea what’s being said about him, the season he’s having or if he and the Avs can win a second Stanley Cup in three seasons.
But to suggest MacKinnon doesn’t pay attention to the world around him would be inaccurate — because he does. Especially when the conversation turns to what happened at the NHL All-Star Game back in February. More specifically, when he and Crosby posed for a picture with Justin Bieber.
Bieber stood between Crosby and MacKinnon with the pop star leaning closer to Crosby. The running joke on social media was that Bieber was going to crop MacKinnon out of the photo.
And then the joke became reality. Bieber posted several pictures from All-Star Weekend, including one of just him and Crosby, with the only vestige of MacKinnon being his right shoulder and his No. 29.
Others noticed. The most-liked comment on Bieber’s feed was about MacKinnon, with someone writing, “damn mackinnon got the crop.” It led to several responses ranging from, “what’d he ever do to you justin” to “i’m not even an avs fan and this hurts me lol.”
Another person chimed in to say, “but I mean … It’s Crosby …” followed by someone else stating “but its also mackinnon. Who eventually will be a hall of famer.”
So what does MacKinnon think of all this?
“Yeah, I don’t blame him,” MacKinnon said with a smile. “It’s Sidney Crosby! He’s an icon! A Canadian icon! I get it. I’m not like a household name. I know that, and that’s OK. It’s just funny to me. I’m not offended. Justin seemed like a nice guy.”
To MacKinnon’s point, Crosby is a future Hall of Famer who along with Washington Capitals left winger Alex Ovechkin resuscitated the NHL post-lockout. Crosby has won three Stanley Cups, two Hart Trophies and scored a gold medal-winning goal in the Olympics.
Bieber is one of the most popular musicians on the planet. He has 293 million Instagram followers, which would make his fans the fourth-most populous nation in the world behind China, India and the United States. All six of his studio albums went platinum at least once in the U.S. before he turned 30.
Still, it’s not like MacKinnon isn’t accomplished. He’s also a Stanley Cup champion who could win more before his career ends. He’s a seven-time NHL All-Star who has two 100-point seasons and has been in the top six of Hart Trophy voting five of the past six seasons — and he could potentially win the award as NHL MVP this season.
Everything he does on the ice is inescapable. MacKinnon is among those players who has become appointment viewing, whether it’s because someone wants to watching the Avs or checking out social media just to MacKinnon’s latest highlight. From his neutral zone entries to his goals to his assists to just the pureness of his technical ability as a skater have helped him become more of a topic of conversation over the years.
From MacKinnon’s perspective, life is good. Being in Denver means he can walk his new dog, a 25-pound Cavapoo. He had a German Shepherd named Cox that he loved so much that Cox was the logo for his fantasy football team. But Cox required more attention than MacKinnon could provide and now lives with MacKinnon’s parents. MacKinnon smiles when admitting that his new dog used to travel by bag when she was smaller, but now they go on walks to coffee shops and other places.
Living in a place where he’s not the most famous person allows MacKinnon to go to the grocery store in peace. He can wear a hat, a hoodie and joggers with nobody doing a double-take to ask, “Was that Nathan MacKinnon?” It makes him laugh to know that he blends in with everyone else even though he’s one of the best in the world at his profession.
“I guess I just don’t think about myself like that,” MacKinnon said. “I just don’t. I can’t control what people think and we’re not in the biggest market ever and I’m not posting a lot. I don’t know. I’m just living my life. I love my life and I like my privacy, I guess.”
ON SATURDAY, McDAVID authored a three-point game that had everyone talking about his Hart Trophy odds. Come Wednesday, that conversation shifted to Kucherov being the Hart favorite because he just had a three-point game. Only for MacKinnon to score three points the next night, opening the debate all over again.
This exact scenario also happened between March 30 and April 4.
This year’s Hart Trophy race is one of the tightest in years.
Lately, the Hart voting has been largely uncompetitive. McDavid captured the Hart last season by receiving 99.54% of the first-place votes. In 2021-22, Toronto Maple Leafs star center Auston Matthews had more than 61% of the first-place votes, and McDavid was a unanimous choice in 2020-21.
The most recent close race came in 2019-20, when Oilers star forward Leon Draisaitl garnered 53.5% of the first-place votes and 77% of the possible total points. The player who finished second received 28.2% of first-place votes and 68.35% of the possible total points.
That was MacKinnon.
Even when Kucherov won in 2018-19, he was almost a unanimous selection. He received 95.9% of the first-place votes.
In 2017-18, then-New Jersey Devils winger Taylor Hall won the Hart with 1,264 points (77% of the possible total points) with the next-closest vote-getter receiving 1,194 points (72.8%).
Again, the runner-up was MacKinnon.
Could it be that way again this year? Or is this the year MacKinnon finally wins the Hart?
Strong cases can be made for multiple players. Kucherov remained the constant for a Lightning team that struggled at times but is in the playoffs for the sixth straight season. He had four months in which he scored more than 20 points.
McDavid was crucial to the Oilers overcoming a slow start that saw them lose eight of their first 11 games before a coaching change was made. Since then, the game’s most dominant player has showed his ability to create for others is just as dangerous as his scoring ability as he became just the fourth player in NHL history to finish with 100 assists in a season with Kucherov later joining him as the fifth player to reach the century mark in assists.
That’s not even accounting for what New York Rangers star winger Artemi Panarin has done to help his team finish as the top seed in the East. Or the fact Matthews not only lead the NHL in goals (69) and entered the final game of the regular season with a chance to become the eighth player ever to score 70 goals in a season.
An argument could be made for what David Pastrnak has done to provide stability to a Boston Bruins team that faced questions without Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci.
And with the Penguins in contention right until the end of the season, some have said Crosby should at least be in the discussion.
MacKinnon told ESPN last year that one of the things he learned as a two-time Hart runner-up was to not be consumed with how others voted. Having that mentality has led to MacKinnon taking a more relaxed approach whenever he’s asked if this could be his year.
Especially with MacKinnon being serenaded with “MVP!” chants at Ball Arena going back to January.
“I want to be the best I can be, but I just truly can’t control who votes for me,” MacKinnon said when asked about the Hart Trophy. “I’ve been in this position before and it hasn’t gone my way, I guess. Everyone has their opinion and the things they like. It is what it is.
“Obviously, winning a Cup is the most important thing to me and that’s what drives me. I don’t think an individual award could drive me to the way I am. There’s such amazing players in this league that to be in the conversation — that’s great, but we’ll see.”
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Kyle Bonagura
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Kyle Bonagura
ESPN Staff Writer
- Covers college football.
- Joined ESPN in 2014.
- Attended Washington State University.
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Mark Schlabach
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Mark Schlabach
ESPN Senior Writer
- Senior college football writer
- Author of seven books on college football
- Graduate of the University of Georgia
The 2025 college football season is nearly here, and while we all look forward to 16 weeks of excitement, upsets and general mayhem, there will be even more where that came from once we hit the postseason.
The highlight of that, of course, is the 12-team College Football Playoff, now in its second year. As in last season’s inaugural CFP, the five highest-ranked conference champions, plus the next seven highest-ranked teams, will make the field. Unlike last year, the four highest-ranked teams (not necessarily conference champions) will be awarded first-round byes. The other eight teams will meet in first-round games at the campus sites of seeds Nos. 5 through 8.
From there, the quarterfinals and semifinals will be played in what had been the New Year’s Six bowls, with this season’s national championship game scheduled for Jan. 19 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami.
All of that is just the tip of the iceberg, though. Apart from the playoff is the 35-game slate of bowl games, beginning with the Cricket Celebration Bowl on Dec. 13.
We’re here for all of it.
Although no games have yet been played, ESPN bowl gurus Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach are nonetheless projecting every postseason matchup, including their breakdowns of how the playoff will play out, just to whet your appetite for the fun ahead.
And we’ll be back every week of the season until the actual matchups are set.
Jump to a section:
Playoff picks | Quarterfinals
Semis, title game | Bowl season
College Football Playoff
First-round games (at campus sites)
Friday, Dec. 19/Saturday, Dec. 20
Times and networks TBD.
Bonagura: No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Georgia
Schlabach: No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Ohio State
Bonagura: No. 11 Miami at No. 6 Notre Dame
Schlabach: No. 11 Arizona State at No. 6 Alabama
Bonagura: No. 10 Arizona State at No. 7 Alabama
Schlabach: No. 10 LSU at No. 7 Notre Dame
Bonagura: No. 9 LSU at No. 8 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 9 Miami at No. 8 Oregon
First-round breakdown
Bonagura: There shouldn’t be any major surprises here, just as there shouldn’t be any confidence from anyone talking about what to expect in college football come December while we’re still in August. Here in the era of free agency, it has become even harder to have a good sense of what most teams will truly look like, and anyone who says otherwise is just faking it.
The old formula — last season’s success + returning starters (QB?) = projection — isn’t as reliable as it used to be. That said, the usual suspects have the money to remain at the top of the sport and that matters more than ever.
Schlabach: It’s a crapshoot when you’re picking the 12 best teams in mid-August, but I gave it my best shot. I went with Texas, Clemson, Penn State and Georgia as my top four seeds, even though the Longhorns and Bulldogs will be breaking in new starting quarterbacks (although Arch Manning and Gunner Stockton did get some playing time last year). Both teams had to replace a plethora of star players who were selected in the NFL draft, but few programs have recruited as well as Georgia and Texas in recent seasons. Honestly, I could see one of three teams –Texas, Georgia or Alabama — winning the SEC, and I think many people might be sleeping on the Crimson Tide after they lost four games in Kalen DeBoer’s first season as coach. It was never going to be easy for anyone to replace Nick Saban, and I still believe DeBoer is one of the best coaches in the sport.
I love what Clemson is bringing back on the defensive line, and I think Cade Klubnik is going to be a star. Penn State brings back many of its best players from a team that just missed reaching the CFP National Championship game last season. If Drew Allar takes the next step, the Nittany Lions might be the class of the Big Ten.
CFP quarterfinals
Wednesday, Dec. 31
CFP quarterfinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 8 Oregon vs. No. 1 Texas
Schlabach: No. 8 Oregon vs. No. 1 Texas
Thursday, Jan. 1
CFP quarterfinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: No. 5 Georgia vs. No. 4 Clemson
Schlabach: No. 10 LSU vs. No. 2 Clemson
CFP quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl Game Presented by Prudential
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
4 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 7 Alabama vs. No. 2 Penn State
Schlabach: No. 6 Alabama vs. No. 3 Penn State
CFP quarterfinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 6 Notre Dame vs. No. 3 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 5 Ohio State vs. No. 4 Georgia
Quarterfinals breakdown
Bonagura: After the 12-team playoff was introduced last year, there was one thing I hammered almost every week in this space: It was ridiculous to give the top four seeds to conference champions. It was a format that punished the No. 1 seed, when one of the main purposes of a seeding system is to reward the best team. (No. 1 Oregon was “rewarded” with a quarterfinal against eventual champion Ohio State.)
The intent was understandable, but good on the powers that be who reversed course after one year and installed the commonsense straight seeding format this year. It will likely mean multiple teams from the same conference will get byes — and that’s fine. In this case, I have two teams from the Big Ten (Penn State and Ohio State), while Mark has two from the SEC (Texas and Georgia).
Schlabach: I had Ohio State, Alabama, LSU and Oregon advancing out of the first-round games. I’m not quite as sold on the Ducks as the other three programs with unproven Dante Moore taking over at quarterback and star receiver Evan Stewart sidelined with a knee injury. Oregon’s defense needs to take another step after allowing 109 points in three games against Ohio State and Penn State (although the Ducks did win two of those games). The Ducks play the Nittany Lions on the road Sept. 27 and they don’t play Ohio State, Illinois or Michigan during the regular season.
If LSU’s defense is markedly better this season, the Tigers could be an SEC title contender. They should have one of the most explosive offenses in the FBS with quarterback Garrett Nussmeier and receiver Aaron Anderson returning, plus a handful of playmakers from the transfer portal.
CFP semifinals, national championship game
Thursday, Jan. 8
CFP semifinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 5 Georgia vs. No. 1 Texas
Schlabach: No. 4 Georgia vs. No. 1 Texas
Friday, Jan. 9
CFP semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 3 Ohio State vs. No. 2 Penn State
Schlabach: No. 3 Penn State vs. No. 2 Clemson
Monday, Jan. 19
CFP National Championship
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
7:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 2 Penn State vs. No. 1 Texas
Schlabach: No. 2 Clemson vs. No. 1 Texas
National championship breakdown
Bonagura: According to ESPN BET, there are nine teams with odds of between +550 and +1,500 to win the national title. It’s not a perfect science, of course, but there is a high likelihood the eventual champion will come from that group: Ohio State (+550), Texas (+550), Penn State (+650), Georgia (+800), Clemson (+900), Alabama (+1,000), Notre Dame (+1,100), Oregon (+1,400) and LSU (+1,500). If you’re looking for semifinal teams, then this group is also a good place to start.
Schlabach: I have my top four seeds advancing to the semifinals and top two playing in the CFP National Championship game. As we witnessed last year, the 12-team CFP is much more unpredictable, given the long layoffs for the top seeds and teams getting hot at the right time of the season.
The Georgia-Texas matchup in the Fiesta Bowl would be a rematch of last year’s SEC championship game, which the Bulldogs won 22-19 in overtime. The Longhorns also lost to the Bulldogs at home during the regular season in 2024, and they might have to once again figure out a way to get past them to win the SEC. Texas plays at Georgia on Nov. 15 in one of the league’s most anticipated games. A Penn State-Clemson contest in the Peach Bowl would feature two of the game’s best quarterbacks. It would also be an intriguing chess match with former Nittany Lions defensive coordinator Tom Allen joining Dabo Swinney’s staff this season.
I have Clemson and Texas meeting in the national championship game, and I’ll go with the Longhorns to win it all. That’s putting a lot on Arch Manning in his first season as a starter, and the Texas offensive line is going to have to do a better job of protecting the quarterback than it did in big contests last season.
Complete bowl season schedule
Saturday, Dec. 13
Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: Southern vs. South Carolina State
Schlabach: Jackson State vs. South Carolina State
LA Bowl
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Colorado vs. UNLV
Schlabach: Oregon State vs. San José State
Tuesday, Dec. 16
IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Appalachian State vs. Western Kentucky
Schlabach: Eastern Michigan vs. Jacksonville State
Wednesday, Dec. 17
StaffDNA Cure Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
5 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: UConn vs. Florida Atlantic
Schlabach: Northern Illinois vs. Coastal Carolina
68 Ventures Bowl
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
8:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: James Madison vs. Florida International
Schlabach: Georgia Southern vs. Miami (Ohio)
Friday, Dec. 19
Myrtle Beach Bowl
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: Jacksonville State vs. South Alabama
Schlabach: East Carolina vs. James Madison
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Auburn vs. Boston College
Schlabach: Vanderbilt vs. North Carolina
Monday, Dec. 22
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Toledo vs. San José State
Schlabach: Buffalo vs. Air Force
Tuesday, Dec. 23
Boca Raton Bowl
Flagler Credit Union Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: East Carolina vs. Ohio
Schlabach: South Florida vs. Toledo
New Orleans Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Louisiana vs. Liberty
Schlabach: Louisiana vs. Western Kentucky
Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl
Frisco, Texas
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Georgia Southern vs. Northern Illinois
Schlabach: North Texas vs. Sam Houston State
Wednesday, Dec. 24
Sheraton Hawai’i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Fresno State vs. Oregon State
Schlabach: UNLV vs. Navy
Friday, Dec. 26
GameAbove Sports Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Maryland vs. Miami (Ohio)
Schlabach: Michigan State vs. Ohio
Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Baylor vs. Iowa
Schlabach: TCU vs. Minnesota
SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Cincinnati vs. Texas State
Schlabach: UTSA vs. Arkansas State
Saturday, Dec. 27
Go Bowling Military Bowl
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
11 a.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Duke vs. Army
Schlabach: Virginia Tech vs. Memphis
Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (Bronx, New York)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: North Carolina vs. Illinois
Schlabach: Pittsburgh vs. Iowa
Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
2:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: NC State vs. Navy
Schlabach: NC State vs. Tulane
Pop-Tarts Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: SMU vs. Texas Tech
Schlabach: Louisville vs. Texas Tech
Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m., CW Network
Bonagura: Bowling Green vs. Colorado State
Schlabach: Bowling Green vs. Fresno State
Isleta New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
5:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Hawai’i vs. Cal
Schlabach: Colorado State vs. Texas State
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)
7:30 p.m. ABC
Bonagura: Virginia Tech vs. Missouri
Schlabach: Georgia Tech vs. Missouri
Kinder’s Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
9:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: BYU vs. Texas A&M
Schlabach: Iowa State vs. Tennessee
Monday, Dec. 29
Birmingham Bowl
Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Arkansas vs. Tulane
Schlabach: Auburn vs. Boston College
Tuesday, Dec. 30
Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Iowa State vs. Louisiana Tech
Schlabach: BYU vs. Liberty
Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Minnesota vs. Oklahoma
Schlabach: Michigan vs. Ole Miss
Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Kansas State vs. Washington
Schlabach: Kansas State vs. USC
Wednesday, Dec. 31
ReliaQuest Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: Indiana vs. Ole Miss
Schlabach: Indiana vs. South Carolina
Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS
Bonagura: Virginia vs. UCLA
Schlabach: Florida State vs. Colorado
Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Michigan vs. Tennessee
Schlabach: Illinois vs. Texas A&M
SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Nebraska vs. Utah
Schlabach: Nebraska vs. Utah
Friday, Jan. 2
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: TCU vs. Memphis
Schlabach: Kansas vs. Army
AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Kansas vs. Florida
Schlabach: Baylor vs. Oklahoma
Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Louisville vs. South Carolina
Schlabach: Duke vs. Florida
TBD
Holiday Bowl
Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego)
Time TBD, Fox
Bonagura: Georgia Tech vs. USC
Schlabach: SMU vs. Washington
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Max Olson
There’s no need to wait five months to find out the ending of this upcoming college football season. We can just ask EA Sports’ College Football 26.
We’ve simulated the 2025 season multiple times in Dynasty mode in search of answers to all the big questions. Who’s getting into the 12-team College Football Playoff? Who’s taking home the Heisman Trophy? Which programs can win it all and which ones are heading toward a coaching search?
Trying to gather as much data as possible, we simulated this season 25 times. We didn’t play any of the games, didn’t adjust rosters or ratings and didn’t alter default settings. We put our faith and trust in the game to forecast the future, and the results could be rather astounding. Here is CFB 26’s take on the season ahead.
Who gets into the College Football Playoff?
Over 25 simulations of this 2025 season, 52 different programs earned at least one College Football Playoff appearance. We love to see that chaos.
The teams that most frequently made the playoff probably won’t shock anyone: Georgia (19), Penn State (19), Miami (18), Oregon (17), Texas Tech (17) and Texas (15). Though that’s a lot of love for the Hurricanes, the game was also quite confident in Clemson (14) and Duke (14) earning CFP bids out of the ACC. Notre Dame earned an at-large spot in the CFP in 10 of the 25 seasons.
Some of the most successful programs of the College Football Playoff era had a tougher time consistently contending in these simulations. Defending national champ Ohio State appeared in 11 of the 25 brackets and reached the national championship game just three times. Alabama earned just five CFP bids and never played for a title.
The list of Power 4 teams that made multiple CFP appearances included Baylor, Auburn, Nebraska, Kansas State, Colorado, Mississippi State, Pitt, SMU and Utah. One rather stunning outcome: LSU’s loaded preseason top-10 team made it in only twice.
Every SEC program got into the CFP at least once — except Kentucky. Florida State, North Carolina, BYU, TCU, Iowa, UCLA and Wisconsin were also among the 23 Power 4 teams that made zero playoff appearances in 25 attempts.
Over all these simulations, the game generated multiple scenarios with 9-3 teams making the bracket. In fact, 50% of all at-large bids (35) went to teams with 9-3 records. In four of those seasons, a 9-3 squad — Georgia twice, Ohio State and Oregon once — won the national championship.
In four instances, the virtual committee put a 9-4 team in the bracket. During one extreme season, a CFP featured six SEC teams that included an 8-4 Auburn squad.
The Big Ten scored more CFP bids (87) than the SEC (83) over our 25 sims, put more teams in the semifinals and won more national titles. The ACC outpaced the Big 12 54-40 in CFP bids earned.
Georgia vs. Penn State title race
Fourteen programs won CFP national championships over the 25 simulations, and no one program was playing for national titles every time. But two clearly moved to the front of the pack: Georgia and Penn State.
The Bulldogs reached the semifinals in 12 of their 19 playoff seasons and delivered Kirby Smart’s third national championship in five of their seven national title games. James Franklin’s squad was just as impressive with 11 semifinals, nine trips to the title game and five championships.
Who else took home the trophy? Oregon (three) and Ohio State (two) won multiple national titles, but the mix of programs that won it all once was far more compelling: Clemson, Florida, Illinois, Miami, Michigan, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech and USC.
Just like in real life in 2024, earning a top-four seed and a first-round bye did not prove exceedingly beneficial in these 12-team CFP sims. Only seven top-four seeds won national championships.
Just one No. 1 seed went all the way in a simulation: Oklahoma. John Mateer and the Sooners rolled to a 12-1 season and an SEC title win over Georgia, dominated their first two playoff games and pulled off a 24-16 comeback win over Oregon in the championship.
The chaos brackets
Texas Tech has championship ambitions for 2025 and has invested a ton of money in its roster to construct a contender. In one of our simulations — let’s refer to these as Seasons A through Y, so this was Season O — the Red Raiders made Cody Campbell’s dreams come true with a 15-1 season and the program’s first national championship.
Clemson’s 13-0 season, led by Heisman Trophy winner Cade Klubnik, fell apart in the Orange Bowl with a 44-9 loss to Miami. That upset helped clear the path for the Big 12 champs to take down Indiana and Miami and advance to the title game, where they ran into … Nebraska!
The 10-2 Huskers earned a No. 6 seed, won their first-round home game against Iowa State, defeated old rival Oklahoma in the Sugar Bowl and blew out Big Ten champ Penn State in the semifinals. In a showdown between Joey McGuire and his mentor Matt Rhule, the Red Raiders prevailed 35-13.
Season U also delivered an ending that would be deeply dissatisfying to SEC fans. Only three teams from the conference — SEC champ South Carolina, Texas A&M and Georgia — earned CFP bids, and all three were bounced quickly, with No. 12 seed Boise State taking down the Aggies and Gamecocks.
The resulting semifinal featured the Broncos, Penn State, Oregon and Illinois and set up a Big Ten title game rematch in the national championship. Penn State won 54-7 in Indianapolis, but Luke Altmyer and his three-loss Illini squad pulled off a stunner in the title game, a 34-31 victory for the program’s first national title since 1951.
In Season T, Florida started 2-2, with losses to South Florida and Miami, which undoubtedly put virtual Billy Napier’s job in jeopardy. The Gators then went on a 12-game win streak, with DJ Lagway putting up 4,736 total yards and 42 TDs and Jadan Baugh emerging as the nation’s leading rusher. They met 15-0 Clemson in the national title game and spoiled their perfect season with a 27-17 victory.
One more simulation that delivered a compelling finale: Season X had Miami quarterback Carson Beck leading the Hurricanes to a 16-0 season and a 47-26 rout of Georgia in a national championship home game at the Orange Bowl. How’s that for a redemptive arc?
Boise State still the G5 favorite
Even without superstar running back Ashton Jeanty, Boise State was still the clear No. 1 among the Group of 5 teams vying for a spot in the College Football Playoff. The Broncos earned CFP bids in 11 of our simulations, followed by Southern Miss and Tulane getting in four times each. We also saw Arkansas State, Jacksonville State, James Madison, Liberty, South Florida and UNLV nab the No. 12 seed in various seasons.
The G5 earned multiple College Football Playoff bids in just one of the 25 season sims, with Boise State (12-1) and Tulane (11-2) earning the No. 9 and No. 11 seeds, respectively. They nearly got three in that year, too, with Memphis finishing 13th in the final CFP rankings.
Sadly, no G5 teams pulled off a Cinderella run to a national championship. Boise State came close as a No. 12 seed in Season E, with a stunning 44-41 road win at Oregon in double overtime, followed by victories over Tennessee and Texas Tech. But the Broncos ran into an unstoppable USC team, losing 45-10 in the national title game.
Conference title scoreboard
Curious which teams the video game likes to win each conference race? Here’s the breakdown. The SEC race was arguably the most competitive, with nine programs winning the league over our 25 simulations. The biggest surprise was defending national champ Ohio State winning just one Big Ten title despite being one of the highest-rated teams in the game, and the same was true for Alabama and LSU.
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ACC: Miami (11), Clemson (6), Duke (5), Louisville (1), Pitt (1), SMU (1)
Big Ten: Oregon (10), Penn State (8), USC (3), Michigan (2), Indiana (1), Ohio State (1)
Big 12: Texas Tech (11), Arizona State (4), Baylor (2), Colorado (2), Iowa State (2), Kansas State (2), Utah (1), West Virginia (1)
SEC: Georgia (6), Texas (6), Texas A&M (4), Oklahoma (3), Florida (2), Alabama (1), LSU (1), South Carolina (1), Tennessee (1)
American: Tulane (11), Memphis (4), Navy (4), USF (4), North Texas (1), UTSA (1)
Conference USA: Liberty (7), Jacksonville State (5), Florida International (4), Sam Houston (4), Middle Tennessee (2), UTEP (2), Kennesaw State (1)
MAC: Toledo (10), Buffalo (8), Miami (Ohio) (5), Ball State (1), Western Michigan (1)
Mountain West: Boise State (15), UNLV (5), Colorado State (1), Hawaii (1), Nevada (1), San Jose State (1), Wyoming (1)
Sun Belt: Southern Miss (14), James Madison (6), Arkansas State (4), Old Dominion (1)
Who wins the Heisman?
Clemson’s Klubnik has the best chances of taking home the Heisman Trophy this season if these simulations are to be believed. Klubnik is tied for the highest-rated QB in the game and won six Heismans over these 25-season sims. The game has a lot of love for new Georgia wide receiver Zachariah Branch, too. The speedy USC transfer finished as the nation’s leading receiver in six of these seasons, including a school-record 1,799 receiving yards in one sim, and won the Heisman four times.
Ohio State’s Jeremiah Smith and Julian Sayin, Tennessee’s Joey Aguilar and Oregon’s Makhi Hughes won Heisman Trophies in multiple seasons of our simulation. The list of one-time winners has an impressive variety: Colorado QB Kaidon Salter, Pitt QB Eli Holstein, USC QB Jayden Maiava, Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza, Louisville RB Isaac Brown and even Miami WR Tony Johnson.
Texas’ Arch Manning did not win the Heisman in any of these seasons and never finished in the top five in Heisman voting, even in the season in which the Longhorns won a national title. LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier finished in the top five only once, and Penn State’s Drew Allar did so only twice.
South Florida QB Byrum Brown finished in the top five of Heisman voting in five sims. One season, his top receiver Chas Nimrod finished second for the Heisman. Miami (Ohio) veteran QB Dequan Finn also earned a second-place finish in another season.
The greatest season of all time
Ohio State phenom Jeremiah Smith was a Heisman finalist in 11 of our 25 simulations and won three times, which makes sense given he’s the highest-rated player in the video game. In several of these seasons, Smith put up ridiculous stats and set single-season program records.
In Season V, the sophomore playmaker put together the greatest season by a wide receiver in FBS history. Smith’s final stat line: 170 catches for 2,382 receiving yards and 28 touchdowns.
His quarterback, Sayin, also broke the FBS single-season passing record with 6,312 yards. Yes, they did it over 16 games. But how they did it was more dramatic than their title run in 2024. The Buckeyes went 9-3 with losses to Wisconsin, Penn State and Rutgers. They barely defeated Michigan 20-19 but still got the No. 8 seed in the CFP.
The Buckeyes had to beat Michigan again in a first-round rematch in Columbus, knocked out a 13-0 Oklahoma team in the Sugar Bowl quarterfinals, returned to the championship game and pulled off a 42-35 overtime win over Georgia for back-to-back national titles.
Stars hit the portal
The transfer portal in College Football 26 has expanded and now features thousands of players making moves every season. Huge names such as Texas’ Colin Simmons, Colorado’s Jordan Seaton, Louisville’s Isaac Brown and Minnesota’s Koi Perich, plus a bunch of big-time starting quarterbacks (Rocco Becht, Avery Johnson, Noah Fifita), consistently entered the portal at the end of the season in our 25 simulations. And on rare occasions, it got more improbable.
Texas quarterback Arch Manning hit the portal in three of our 25 simulations after coach Steve Sarkisian left for Michigan (more on that below). Manning stayed in the SEC each time, signing with Georgia in two of the seasons and landing at Alabama in one.
Florida’s Lagway entered the portal in five of our 25 sims with Alabama, Texas and USC emerging as his preferred destinations. In one season, Manning and Lagway made the bizarre decision to team up in Tuscaloosa and compete with Ty Simpson for the starting job.
Season N ended with Texas A&M going 15-1 and defeating Miami to win its first national championship since 1939. And then, for some bizarre reason, Aggies starting QB Marcel Reed entered the portal and transferred to Ole Miss. Oklahoma’s Michael Hawkins Jr. transferred in to replace him in College Station and try to lead a repeat.
Carousel craziness
The addition of real college football head coaches and coordinators makes the coaching carousel in Dynasty mode far more comical in College Football 26. In most of these 25 simulations, the game produced end-of-season coaching changes that would shake up the sport.
In 12 of the 25 seasons, Clemson’s Dabo Swinney replaced Kalen DeBoer at Alabama. It’s worth noting that the Crimson Tide earned just five CFP appearances and took home zero national titles in these simulations. Each time Swinney left, Clemson responded by hiring Shane Beamer from rival South Carolina or hiring Lane Kiffin from Ole Miss.
Michigan was another playoff-or-bust program in these simulations and moved on from Sherrone Moore at the end of 12 of 25 seasons. In 11 of those 12 scenarios, the Wolverines pulled off a stunner and hired Steve Sarkisian from Texas. The one time they didn’t get Sark, they grabbed Oregon’s Dan Lanning.
The Longhorns’ coaching searches typically focused on Kiffin but occasionally resulted in hiring Mike Norvell, Joey McGuire or Kyle Whittingham. In one simulation, they shocked the world and picked Lincoln Riley. In three other sims, Riley left USC and moved back to Norman, Oklahoma, to lead the Sooners.
If you’re rooting for an all-time crazy carousel cycle, Season U stood out. In that simulation, Alabama and Michigan had coaching vacancies after DeBoer and Moore went to the NFL. Michigan hiring Sarkisian led to Norvell at Texas, Jedd Fisch at Florida State, Kyle Whittingham at Washington and Justin Wilcox at Utah. Swinney went to Alabama, Kiffin went to Clemson and Rhett Lashlee replaced him at Ole Miss. Beamer didn’t get the Clemson job but landed at LSU. Matt Campbell filled the South Carolina opening in this scenario, and Brian Kelly landed on his feet at Auburn.
But there’s more! Oklahoma brought back Riley, Brent Venables took over rival Oklahoma State and the Trojans turned to Bret Bielema as their next head coach — right after he led the Illini to the national championship. Eastern Michigan’s Chris Creighton was the lucky coach who took over the defending national champs.
If any of these unthinkable outcomes occur in real life in 2025, just remember: You heard it here first.
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