Rishi Sunak’s defence pledge sets trap for Sir Keir Starmer

Published

1 year ago

April 24, 2024

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On the plane from Warsaw to Berlin, Rishi Sunak was buoyant as he briefly chatted to the travelling pack.

Having delivered his hat-trick of welfare reforms, the Rwanda bill and now the big lift in defence spending, he was a prime minister who clearly feels on the front foot after a torrid few months.

He looked like a man enjoying the job.

Politics live: Sunak warns Europe is at a ‘turning point’

Allies said Mr Sunak has spoken a lot about the spending decision with his current Foreign Secretary Lord David Cameron, who has “form” in prioritising these decisions, having committed to defence funding back in 2010 when he was prime minister in the face of competing spending demands.

“The PM’s thought about this a lot, which is why it’s so detailed today,” said one government source.

The big decision he announced in this election year to increase defence spending to 2.5% by 2030 was a choice.

He could have committed funding to schools, the NHS or local government. But, for this prime minister, it was the right choice.

It might not be the most salient issue for voters at home, but in his speech today, he left his audience in little doubt about the risks we are facing with the rise of authoritarian regimes, such as China, Russia and Iran, working together to undermine our democracies and way of life.

But equally, Mr Sunak made this commitment knowing all too well that it may not be him that has to deliver it.

And while the sum is really big – £75bn of spending over the next six years – for this year the only commitment will be £500m for Ukraine, with the remainder of the funding coming in the next parliament.

On the assumed baseline, the government had already allocated the additional funding for 2.3% defence spending annually in the next parliament.

Increasing that to 2.5% by 2028-29 will, in cash terms, require £4.5bn of funding, which the government says will be paid for through £1.6bn from the annual research and development budget and £2.9bn from 70,000 cuts to civil servant jobs, taking the workforce back to pre-pandemic levels.

It is a clear political trap for Sir Keir Starmer, who spent much of his early years as Labour leader trying to undo the damage done by his predecessor, Jeremy Corbyn – who did not support NATO.

Starmer trap

Sir Keir has sought to re-establish Labour’s security credentials in recent years, most notably in his stance on the Israel-Hamas conflict, in which he has made sure he sticks to the US position and stands with the government on matters of national security.

So this is a big test.

Sir Keir said recently that he wanted to commit to the 2.5% of “when resources allow”, giving a future Labour government some wriggle room as it contemplates how to allocate scarce public resource.

Because, as the polls stand, Mr Sunak won’t be the prime minister having to deliver on defence-spending pledges, and already Conservative politicians are challenging Labour to commit to their plans, knowing all too well that it reduces the party’s manoeuvrability in government should it win the general election.

Hard call

And this is a hard call for the Labour leader, who has been desperate to present himself as a politician who also puts the security of the nation above all else.

In Poland, Mr Sunak evoked Winston Churchill, saying: “We did not choose this moment, but it is for us to meet it.”

He also said that to lead was to make choices, and his choice was to protect his citizens above all else.

How can Starmer refuse to meet the commitment?

Politics

‘Make or break’: Chancellor warned businesses can’t take more tax hikes in budget

Published

2 hours ago

October 14, 2025

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'Make or break': Chancellor warned businesses can't take more tax hikes in budget

Rachel Reeves has been warned that firms face a “make-or-break moment” at next month’s budget.

The British Chamber of Commerce (BCC) urged the chancellor, who is widely expected to announce tax hikes in November’s budget to fill a gap in the public finances, to steer clear of increasing levies on businesses.

Ms Reeves raised taxes by £40bn last year and the BCC said business confidence had not recovered since.

“Last year’s budget took the wind from their sails, and they have been struggling to find momentum ever since,” BCC director-general Shevaun Haviland said.

She said firms felt “drained” and could not plan ahead as they expected “further tax demands to be laid at their feet” when the budget is delivered on 26 November.

“The chancellor must seize this moment and use her budget to deliver a pro-growth agenda that can restore optimism and belief amongst business leaders,” Ms Haviland added.

“This year’s budget will be a make-or-break moment for many firms.”

The BCC also called for a reform of business rates and the removal of the windfall tax on gas and oil introduced by the last government.

In its submission, the industry body outlined more than 60 recommendations, including the proposal of further infrastructure investment, cuts to customs barriers and action on skill shortages.

Earlier this year, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer announced Labour would aim to approve 150 major infrastructure projects by the next election, with Labour already pledging to support expansions of both Heathrow and Gatwick airports – another of the BCC’s requests.

While the Treasury would not comment on budget speculation, a spokesperson insisted Ms Reeves would “strike the right balance” between ensuring funding for public services and securing economic growth.

She has vowed to stick to Labour’s manifesto pledges not to raise taxes on “working people”.

Household spending on the wane

The BCC’s plea to halt further tax rises on businesses comes as retail sales growth slowed in September.

“With the budget looming large, and households facing higher bills, retail spending rose more slowly than in recent months,” Helen Dickinson, chief executive of the British Retail Consortium (BRC), said.

“Rising inflation and a potentially taxing budget is weighing on the minds of many households planning their Christmas spending.”

Total retail sales in the UK increased by 2.3% year-on-year in September, against growth of 2% in September 2024 and above the 12-month average growth of 2.1%, according to BRC and KPMG data.

While food sales were up by 4.3% year-on-year, this was largely driven by inflation rather than volume growth.

Non-food sales growth slowed to 0.7% against the growth of 1.7% last September, making it below the 12-month average growth of 0.9%.

Online non-food sales only increased by 1% against last September’s growth of 3.4%, which was below the 12-month average growth of 1.8%.

“The future of many large anchor stores and thousands of jobs remains in jeopardy while the Treasury keeps the risk of a new business rates surtax on the table,” Ms Dickinson said.

“By exempting these shops when the budget announcements are made, the chancellor can reduce the inflationary pressures hammering businesses and households alike.”

Politics

Starmer and other leaders have fallen into line on Trump’s Gaza plan – now it must deliver

Published

10 hours ago

October 13, 2025

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Starmer and other leaders have fallen into line on Trump's Gaza plan - now it must deliver

I’ve been around a while and seen a lot of the insides of international summits over the years, but this one was truly extraordinary.

Over 20 leaders flew to Sharm el-Sheikh in Egypt from all over the world – Indonesia, Pakistan, Norway, Canada – to witness the signing of Donald Trump’s peace plan.

Gaza deal signed – as it happened

This historic day was pure theatre for Trump from start to finish. Flying in from Israel, where he had met hostage families and then addressed the Israeli parliament, he arrived a whopping three hours late, keeping a gaggle of world leaders waiting.

We stood around in corridors watching them move from one room to another to hold meetings with each other, presumably to talk about phase two of Trump’s peace deal.

Testimony to the power of Trump

At one point, Sir Keir Starmer’s meeting with his Turkish counterpart included France’s Emmanuel Macro. That then somehow morphed into a summit which also brought in the Germans, Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, and the leaders of Egypt and Qatar. More chairs kept coming into the room until there was the equivalent of a cabinet table of leaders and advisors sitting in a long line facing each other.

What they were talking about was how each country could help in phase two of the peace effort. Now Trump had, alongside fellow signatories of this deal – Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey – ended the war, could they maintain the peace?

As Starmer put it: “We can’t treat today as historic and let it drop tomorrow.”

But these mini summits in the margins happened by fault rather than design. This day really was designed to bear witness – and offer acknowledgement – to Trump. All of these leaders turned up pretty much in the dark as to what the day held, with his peace summit convened 48 hours earlier.

That they dropped plans to make their way to Egypt is testimony to the power Trump wields.

He was utterly omnipotent. First, there was the greeting ceremony, in which each leader filed in individually for a photo and handshake with him before all returning to the stage for the family photo.

Then, at the signing ceremony, Trump sat with his three fellow signatories as the world leaders stood behind him.

“This took 3,000 years to get to this point. Can you believe it?” Trump said as he signed that deal. “And it’s going to hold up, too. It’s going to hold up.”

Finally, in another giant hall, Trump gave a speech in which he ran through all the leaders who had turned up – praising them or fondly poking a bit of fun at them accordingly, as (most) of them stood behind him.

He teased Macron for sitting in the front row rather than joining the others on the stage, joking it wasn’t like him to be low-key. He described Meloni as a “beautiful young woman”.

“I’m not allowed to say it because usually it’s the end of your political career if you say it – she’s a beautiful young woman,” said Trump mid-speech. “You don’t mind being called beautiful, right? Because you are,” he turned to say to her – her reaction obscured from view.

Now for the ‘easy part’?

Soon after, the prime minister of Pakistan, invited to say a few remarks by Trump, renewed his call for the US president to be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize.

Having brokered the deal, Trump took the moment and made it into his summit on his terms, as fellow leaders fell into line, literally standing behind him. And in his characteristic bullishness, he told his audience in this final speech that the hard part – the ceasefire – had been done, and rebuilding Gaza was the easy part.

That isn’t really what the rest of them believe: 92% of Gazans have been displaced, the Gaza Strip is a wasteland. Organising a peacekeeping force, getting Hamas to disarm and Israel to withdraw from the strip, putting together a technocratic team and peace board to oversee the running of Gaza still needs to be done.

This was a largely celebratory day, but there are concerns whether this deal will hold up. Trump says Hamas needs to disarm and disband, and yet one of their most senior leaders told Sky News a few days ago, it won’t.

Meanwhile, there is a growing humanitarian crisis in Gaza. The UK has in short order sent in £20m of aid to try to help with sanitation.

On the British side, the prime minister said he had offered to help demilitarise the strip, saying the UK can take a role in “monitoring the ceasefire but also decommissioning the capability of Hamas and their weaponry, drawing on our experience in Northern Ireland”.

“It’s really important we keep that focus. We mustn’t have any missteps now,” he said.

Trump’s peace board is still in its infancy – Starmer told me he isn’t going to sit on it, with the make-up still being discussed, while Tony Blair’s participation is controversial.

Trump said on the way over to Egypt that he was going to canvass opinion to make sure everyone is happy with the former prime minister’s presence. It comes after Bassem Naim of Hamas told Sky News that Blair was not welcome in Gaza after his role in the invasion of Iraq.

When I asked Starmer if he thought Trump should be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize he said “there’ll be plenty of people, I’m sure, nominating him” – as he paid tribute to him for getting “leaders to this position”.

Now the task for them all is to implement what Trump has set in train. If his plan works, he would be sitting on an achievement that has eluded successive US presidents for decades.

Trump should rightly be lauded for ending the war, now he must bring the peace.