‘The most dangerous man on the ice’: How Auston Matthews can level up his legacy in Round 1
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Kristen Shilton, ESPN NHL reporter
BOSTON — Auston Matthews has been characterized as just a regular-season star — one criticized for flaming out right when the Toronto Maple Leafs hit the playoffs.
Consider Matthews to have issued a rebuttal.
The scene: Late in Game 2 of Toronto’s first-round Stanley Cup playoff series against the Boston Bruins on Monday. The Leafs were trying to avoid falling into a 2-0 series deficit, with the scoreboard knotted at 2-2 late in the third period. The rowdy hometown crowd at TD Garden were taunting the visitors with electrified chants of “U-S-A … U-S-A” when Matthews — arguably the greatest American-born hockey player in the league today who happens to play for an iconic Canadian franchise — saw his opening.
Like a running back sprinting for daylight in the open field, Matthews charged into the Bruins’ zone, gloved down a pass from linemate Max Domi, juked defenseman Charlie McAvoy and bamboozled Boston goaltender Linus Ullmark with a perfectly placed top-shelf strike.
In a blink, Matthews’ eventual game-winner took Toronto from the emotional brink to a soft landing en route to a 3-2 victory. The Leafs left Boston with home-ice advantage in a best-of-five series against the opponent with whom they hadn’t even held a lead in their previous five meetings.
Matthews was the opposite of invisible. He was impossible to ignore. Now, more than ever, is Matthews’ time to shine.
“You look at his goal [on Monday] — that was a nothing play,” Bruins captain Brad Marchand said. “And he got a game-winning goal off of it. Even when you think you’re tight on him, you’re not tight enough. But that’s the thing about the best players; they find a way. And that’s what he did.”
IT’S BEEN A JOURNEY for Matthews finding his way to blossom in the postseason. Prior to Monday, he’d recorded 22 goals and 44 points in 51 playoff tilts, but hadn’t registered a goal in his previous six postseason appearances. And that is from a player who’s won three Rocket Richard Trophies as the league’s top goal-scorer, including a career-best 69-goal campaign in 2023-24.
Make no mistake — the numbers aren’t bad. But for whatever reason, Matthews hasn’t translated consistently to being the same difference-making threat in the playoffs that he’s been in the regular season.
Perhaps that ends now, with Matthews apparently letting go of the pressure and allowing his skill to take over.
“It’s just happening so fast, you don’t really have time to think,” Matthews said of teeing up his game-winner. “It’s honestly kind of instincts, and just trying to make the right play.”
It wasn’t just that momentum separating Matthews from the pack. He assisted on both Leaf goals earlier in the night (courtesy of Domi and John Tavares on the power play), had a game-high eight shots on goal, six hits, and at one point made a potential game-saving move in the crease behind goaltender Ilya Samsonov to keep a puck out of the Leafs’ cage.
Matthews is not above the fray. He’ll do the so-called dirty work. And that commitment at both ends of the spectrum — offensively and defensively — is what emerged most in Game 2, and caught Boston’s full attention.
“What I’ve been impressed with him about is how tenacious he’s been on pucks, how tenacious he’s been on the forecheck,” Bruins coach Jim Montgomery said. “He’s been relentless with his work ethic. We can’t let him get in behind us. That’s the most dangerous man on the ice; you have to be tighter [with him]. But he’s the most dangerous man on the ice because he’s earned it.”
Matthews has done it the hard way, bearing the brunt of expectations. It’s been the same narrative since Matthews arrived in Toronto as their No. 1 overall pick in 2016; the Leafs will go as far in the playoffs as Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander and Tavares take them. The Leafs’ hopes live and die with their “Core Four.”
Matthews shoulders that burden more than ever. Toronto hasn’t seen Nylander — a 40-goal scorer in his own right — in this series yet due to an undisclosed injury (he remains a possibility to return in Game 3). Marner has been dead-quiet, with zero points and four total shots on goal. Tavares is doing his part, but the Leafs’ captain is past his scoring prime.
Matthews, meanwhile, is in the thick of his. He’s the red-hot middle of Toronto’s nucleus, the Leafs’ highly prized, series-defining skater. And that’s for better or for worse.
“He’s world-class in everything he does,” Tavares said of Matthews. “Having the night like he did [in Game 2] was massive for our group. The goal is one thing; it’s obviously special. Not many guys in the world [have] those instincts and the hands and finishing ability. But the competitive aspect, winning battles, fighting for space, using his body — things he does so truly well that sets the standard for us. It was a hell of a game by him and just driving our team.”
THE TRICK NOW is Matthews sustaining the momentum he’s created and turning it into something tangible. The Leafs infamously went two decades without a first-round playoff series win until besting the Tampa Bay Lightning in six games last year. Matthews had five goals in the final four games to get Toronto over the line — and then managed only two assists through five games in a second-round flop against the Florida Panthers.
It’s not enough for Matthews to just light the lamp. His impact must be felt in every phase of the game. Monday’s performance exemplified who Matthews can be at his most powerful. He didn’t make it look easy, exactly. And the Bruins are a smart, opportunistic team that have already shown Toronto they’ll throw every mistake the Leafs make into the back of their net.
Matthews found a way to break through with a goal-scoring finish and an exuberant reaction from a usually subdued Matthews. It could be bigger than a single win. It could be a sign that the best of Playoff Matthews has arrived — and is still to come.
“Auston was all over the stat sheet and in so many regards he’s affecting the game positively for us,” Toronto coach Sheldon Keefe said. “But for me, the way he worked, where he competed, he was hard, physical, winning puck battles all over the ice. Really good … it’s big-time stuff the way those guys connected in the finish.”
The 2025 MLB All-Star Home Run Derby is fast approaching — and the field is set.
Braves hometown hero Ronald Acuna Jr. became the first player to commit to the event, which will be held at Truist Park in Atlanta on July 14 (8 p.m. ET on ESPN). He was followed by MLB home run leader Cal Raleigh of the Seattle Mariners, James Wood of the Washington Nationals, Byron Buxton of the Minnesota Twins, Oneil Cruz of the Pittsburgh Pirates, Junior Caminero of the Tampa Bay Rays, Brent Rooker of the Athletics and Jazz Chisholm Jr. of the New York Yankees.
On Friday, however, Acuna was replaced by teammate Matt Olson.
With all the entrants announced, let’s break down their chances at taking home this year’s Derby prize.
Full All-Star Game coverage: How to watch, schedule, rosters, more
2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 434 feet
Why he could win: Olson is a late replacement for Acuna as the home team’s representative at this year’s Derby. Apart from being the Braves’ first baseman, however, Olson also was born in Atlanta and grew up a Braves fan, giving him some extra motivation. The left-handed slugger led the majors in home runs in 2023 — his 54 round-trippers that season also set a franchise record — and he remains among the best in the game when it comes to exit velo and hard-hit rate.
Why he might not: The home-field advantage can also be a detriment if a player gets too hyped up in the first round. See Julio Rodriguez in Seattle in 2023, when he had a monster first round, with 41 home runs, but then tired out in the second round.
2025 home runs: 36 | Longest: 440 feet
Why he could win: It’s the season of Cal! The Mariners’ catcher is having one of the greatest slugging first halves in MLB history, as he’s been crushing mistakes all season . His easy raw power might be tailor-made for the Derby — he ranks in the 87th percentile in average exit velocity and delivers the ball, on average, at the optimal home run launch angle of 23 degrees. His calm demeanor might also be perfect for the contest as he won’t get too amped up.
Why he might not: He’s a catcher — and one who has carried a heavy workload, playing in all but one game this season. This contest is as much about stamina as anything, and whether Raleigh can carry his power through three rounds would be a concern. No catcher has ever won the Derby, with only Ivan Rodriguez back in 2005 even reaching the finals.
2025 home runs: 24 | Longest: 451 feet
Why he could win: He’s big, he’s strong, he’s young, he’s awesome, he might or might not be able to leap tall buildings in a single bound. This is the perfect opportunity for Wood to show his talent on the national stage, and he wouldn’t be the first young player to star in the Derby. He ranks in the 97th percentile in average exit velocity and 99th percentile in hard-hit rate, so he can still muscle the ball out in BP even if he slightly mishits it. His long arms might be viewed as a detriment, but remember the similarly tall Aaron Judge won in 2017.
Why he might not: His natural swing isn’t a pure uppercut — he has a pretty low average launch angle of just 6.2 degrees — so we’ll see how that plays in a rapid-fire session. In real games, his power is primarily to the opposite field, but in a Home Run Derby you can get more cheapies pulling the ball down the line.
2025 home runs: 20 | Longest: 479 feet
Why he could win: Buxton’s raw power remains as impressive as nearly any hitter in the game. He crushed a 479-foot home run earlier this season and has four others of at least 425 feet. Indeed, his “no doubter” percentage — home runs that would be out of all 30 parks based on distance — is 75%, the highest in the majors among players with more than a dozen home runs. His bat speed ranks in the 89th percentile. In other words, two tools that could translate to a BP lightning show.
Why he might not: Buxton is 31 and the Home Run Derby feels a little more like a younger man’s competition. Teoscar Hernandez did win last year at age 31, but before that, the last winner older than 29 was David Ortiz in 2010, and that was under much different rules than are used now.
2025 home runs: 16 | Longest: 463 feet
Why he could win: If you drew up a short list of players everyone wants to see in the Home Run Derby, Cruz would be near the top. He has the hardest-hit ball of the 2025 season, and the hardest ever tracked by Statcast, a 432-foot missile of a home run with an exit velocity of 122.9 mph. He also crushed a 463-foot home run in Anaheim that soared way beyond the trees in center field. With his elite bat speed — 100th percentile — Cruz has the ability to awe the crowd with a potentially all-time performance.
Why he might not: Like all first-time contestants, can he stay within himself and not get too caught up in the moment? He has a long swing, which will result in some huge blasts, but might not be the most efficient for a contest like this one, where the more swings a hitter can get in before the clock expires, the better.
2025 home runs: 23 | Longest: 425 feet
Why he could win: Although Caminero was one of the most hyped prospects entering 2024, everyone kind of forgot about him heading into this season since he didn’t immediately rip apart the majors as a rookie. In his first full season, however, he has showed off his big-time raw power — giving him a chance to become just the third player to reach 40 home runs in his age-21 season. He has perhaps the quickest bat in the majors, ranking in the 100th percentile in bat speed, and his top exit velocity ranks in the top 15. That could translate to a barrage of home runs.
Why he might not: In game action, Caminero does hit the ball on the ground quite often — in fact, he’s on pace to break Jim Rice’s record for double plays grounded into in a season. If he gets out of rhythm, that could lead to a lot of low line drives during the Derby instead of fly balls that clear the fences.
2025 home runs: 19 | Longest: 440 feet
Why he could win: The Athletics slugger has been one of the top power hitters in the majors for three seasons now and is on his way to a third straight 30-homer season. Rooker has plus bat speed and raw power, but his biggest strength is an optimal average launch angle (19 degrees in 2024, 15 degrees this season) that translates to home runs in game action. That natural swing could be picture perfect for the Home Run Derby. He also wasn’t shy about saying he wanted to participate — and maybe that bodes well for his chances.
Why he might not: Rooker might not have quite the same raw power as some of the other competitors, as he has just one home run longer than 425 feet in 2025. But that’s a little nitpicky, as 11 of his home runs have still gone 400-plus feet. He competed in the college home run derby in Omaha while at Mississippi State in 2016 and finished fourth.
2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 442 feet
Why he could win: Chisholm might not be the most obvious name to participate, given his career high of 24 home runs, but he has belted 17 already in 2025 in his first 61 games after missing some time with an injury. He ranks among the MLB leaders in a couple of home run-related categories, ranking in the 96th percentile in expected slugging percentage and 98th percentile in barrel rate. His raw power might not match that of the other participants, but he’s a dead-pull hitter who has increased his launch angle this season, which might translate well to the Derby, even if he won’t be the guy hitting the longest home runs.
Why he might not: Most of the guys who have won this have been big, powerful sluggers. Chisholm is listed at 5-foot-11, 184 pounds, and you have to go back to Miguel Tejada in 2004 to find the last player under 6 foot to win.
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