How the first 17 games of the Stanley Cup playoffs will influence the rest of the first round
The 2024 Stanley Cup playoffs have delivered all the requisite thrills that fans have come to expect from the greatest postseason in sports.
But through the first 17 games — three for Boston Bruins–Toronto Maple Leafs, and two for every other series — we’ve also learned some lessons about each club, whether it’s new information coming to light or confirmation of our pre-playoff thoughts.
To help sort through all of that new data — and identify which trends will continue to influence the rest of the first round and beyond — ESPN reporters Ryan S. Clark, Kristen Shilton and Greg Wyshynski present their takeaways from the first wave of first-round games.
The Rangers’ variety of victories
In order to win the Stanley Cup, a team needs to be able to win in a variety of ways. Some nights are tough defensive battles. Some nights are shootouts. Some nights are going to be disjointed, penalty-filled affairs where physicality reigns. What’s been impressive about the New York Rangers so far against the Washington Capitals is, well, the range.
Their Game 1 win saw them dominate in 5-on-5 play, which felt like a 60-minute response to analytic skepticism about their even-strength play. Their Game 2 win was a grueling, nasty affair in which the teams both scored twice on the power play but the Rangers’ penalty kill — third best in the league this season — scored the game-winner.
Eleven different Rangers have notched a point in the first two games, including all three members of their checking line — Matt Rempe, Jimmy Vesey and Barclay Goodrow — that could become one of those cult hero trios for a championship team.
“All year it’s been that way,” coach Peter Laviolette said of his depth. “We’ve relied on a lot of people. I think it’s helpful in the course of the playoffs that when the bump and grind comes into it, and hopefully the longevity of the playoffs, it’s good to have it.” — Wyshynski
What’s next for the Stars, down 0-2?
How much have the Dallas Stars struggled against the Vegas Golden Knights recently? Game 2’s defeat makes six straight losses, and they’ve also lost nine of their last 11 combined regular-season and playoff games to Vegas.
Last year’s Western Conference finals saw the Stars fall into an 0-2 series after two overtime games. They’d fall into a 0-3 hole before winning two games to force Game 6, then suffering a season-ending loss to the Golden Knights.
They face another 0-2 deficit, and must figure out how to recover quickly against the defending Stanley Cup champions. Stars coach Peter DeBoer said after the Game 2 loss that he felt like the Golden Knights carried the play last season, whereas he believes both teams now “are a lot more evenly matched.”
This season saw the Stars finish tied for a league-high 26 road wins. Stars forward Tyler Seguin said the goal is to now parlay that success on the road into something that could help them climb back into the series.
“I don’t know if you can be too physical in playoffs, but maybe we’re almost being frustrated by last year by knowing how good of a team we are,” Seguin said, while referencing how the Stars finished with 53 hits. “Especially 5-on-5. We’ll take a day tomorrow and reset and get excited for this challenge ahead of us.” — Clark
Playoff Bob’s save of the year
Sergei Bobrovsky is an accomplished regular-season goalie, with two Vezina Trophies to his credit and great stats this season for the Florida Panthers (36-17-4, .915 save percentage, six shutouts). But in the postseason, he becomes Playoff Bob. And Playoff Bob can do magical things.
Against the Tampa Bay Lightning in Game 2, Bobrovsky made one of the most remarkable saves of this or any postseason: Robbing Matt Dumba with his back facing the Lightning defenseman, his left arm extended to allow the puck to bounce off his forearm and keep the game tied. The Panthers would eventually win in overtime to take a 2-0 series lead, with Playoff Bob making 21 saves.
“It was desperation, I tried to throw as much body as possible and was able to make the save,” he said.
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Sergei Bobrovsky makes unbelievable save to deny Lightning
Check out this sensational save from Panthers’ Sergei Bobrovsky in Game 2 vs. the Lightning.
It was the kind of save that instantly goes viral. The kind of save that’s already inspired a T-shirt featuring Bobrovsky stretching across the crease with the words “The Bobbery” above it. The kind of save that coach Paul Maurice believed could inspire young fans in South Florida to take up the crease.
“There’s probably a number of kids in the driveway this weekend, they all want to play goal for the first time, right? For me, that’s how it happens. They see something kind of magical, and they all go and try it,” he said.
The Lightning have their hands full with their state rivals for a lot of reasons, and one of them is Playoff Bob, who is second in the postseason with a 1.95 goals-against average, playing behind the Panthers’ league-best team defense. — Wyshynski
There’s been no official word on what ails William Nylander. But there’s no doubt his absence is having an effect on the Toronto Maple Leafs.
The Leafs’ winger tends to come alive in the postseason, with consistent production (he’s tallied 40 points in 50 playoff games to date) and Toronto’s usually potent offensive attack has been dulled without Nylander in the mix. Credit to Boston there too, of course; the Bruins have been stingy offering up scoring opportunities.
And then there’s a trickle-down effect through the rest of Toronto’s top nine without Nylander available, from slotting rookie Matthew Knies onto the second line to keeping Nick Robertson — a healthy scratch on a number of occasions during the season — on the third line. Their lack of experience doesn’t give Toronto the same obvious advantage having Nylander on the ice would offer (although Knies did score Toronto’s opening marker in Game 3, off a pretty pass from Mitch Marner).
Plus, the Leafs’ listless power play would benefit from a Nylander boost — Toronto entered Game 3 having gone 1-6 with the extra man, and the Leafs immediately added to their own disappointment with five scoreless power plays in Wednesday’s outing. Timothy Liljegren is no replacement there for what Nylander does. The Leafs need their 40-goal scorer back, badly. — Shilton
Was the Avs’ performance in Game 2 a breakthrough or a blip?
A first-period deficit overcome. A second period in which the Colorado Avalanche scored four goals from four different players. A solid performance from Alexandar Georgiev, stopping 28 of the 30 shots he faced just days after he allowed seven goals in a Game 1 loss.
All of that led to a 5-2 Avs win, tying their series against the Winnipeg Jets. Could those trends play a role in the Avs reversing their fortunes against a Jets team that’s given them significant problems throughout the season?
Part of the narrative entering this series was how the Jets were 3-0 against the Avs in the regular season, outscoring them by a 17-4 margin. That includes a 7-0 loss back on April 13, an acute cause for concern in Colorado.
That’s what made Game 1 so fascinating. On one hand, the Avs scored more goals in one game against the Jets than they did in three games in the regular season. On the other hand, the Jets scored seven goals for a second straight game against Colorado.
So does Game 2 mean the Avs have found an answer — or are at least closer to finding an answer against the Jets? Or was Game 2 an outlier against a Jets team that might strike back with an offensive outburst in Game 3? — Clark
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Connor Hellebuyck’s epic blunder leads to an Avalanche goal
Connor Hellebuyck comes out of the crease but slips on the ice, leading to a Colorado goal.
The Lightning’s depth is due to shine
If there’s one thing that’s helped drive the Tampa Bay Lightning‘s success in recent seasons, it’s depth. The Lightning have prioritized adding players at the deadline who enhance — and complement — their core stars, and GM Julien BriseBois did that again grabbing Anthony Duclair and Matt Dumba in March.
But Tampa Bay isn’t repeating the rewards of a deep roster yet in their series against the Florida Panthers … yet. The Lightning are in an 0-2 hole after scoring only four goals (and only two at 5-on-5) through two games — a pair from Steven Stamkos, one from Brandon Hagel and another from Brayden Point.
The Lightning have looked top-heavy, and that’s not necessarily a recipe for success when the Panthers have three lines that can do damage (and Florida has already shown a killer instinct when it comes to scoring timely goals).
Now, if it weren’t for The Save by Sergei Bobrovsky on Dumba in Game 2, this could be an entirely different conversation. But as it is the Lightning will be desperate for offense going into Game 3 of a series where they have yet to hold a lead. That in itself is a tough pill to swallow. — Shilton
Edmonton Oilers goalie Stuart Skinner and Los Angeles Kings goalie Cam Talbot were both not very good in Game 2. But Talbot made a few key saves in the Kings’ win, including a breakaway stop on Ryan McLeod and two huge saves on Leon Draisaitl on a late second-period power play, while Skinner did not.
“They’re getting some good puck luck right now. And the puck luck wasn’t on my side tonight,” Skinner said after the 5-4 overtime loss on Wednesday night. “Every shot that they take seemed to go off a guy’s stick or a guy’s skate.”
No one expects Skinner to dominate in the postseason. He had an .883 save percentage and a 3.68 goals-against average in 12 starts last postseason. He’s the classic “you don’t have to win us a series, but you can’t lose us a series” goaltender behind a strong contending team.
Through two games against Los Angeles, he has an .857 save percentage, having given up nine goals on 63 shots. Both games had their share of funky deflections and defensive breakdowns in front of Skinner, but Game 2 was close to that “don’t lose us the series” concern.
“Any time he’s had an off game, he’s been able to play very well for us,” Oilers coach Kris Knoblauch said.
The coach noted a game back in Dec. 2023 when Skinner gave up five goals on 22 shots to the Lightning. He would go on to win 12 of his next 13 games, giving up only one goal in six of those victories.
After the Kings tied the series 1-1 on Anze Kopitar‘s overtime goal, Skinner sounded like someone confident that he can rebound for the Oilers.
“Games like this, where you feel like the universe is against you and the puck’s not working well for you, it’s part of life. It’s part of playoffs too. I’m sure I’ll feel this again at some point,” he said. “The takeaway from tonight is to just wash it out. I know my game and I know who I am.” — Wyshynski
The Predators’ new playoff identity
Blocking 30 shots in their series-tying 4-1 win Tuesday against the Vancouver Canucks is just the latest example of the defensive identity the Nashville Predators have established during Andrew Brunette’s first season in charge.
His time as the interim coach of the Panthers and as an assistant with the New Jersey Devils saw those teams score goals at a furious rate with Brunette behind the bench. While the Preds finished 10th in goals per game this season (3.24), there was also an emphasis on defense that Brunette preached throughout the season. The message he relayed to the Predators’ players was to operate as a five-player unit that could eventually thrive in situations that saw them play without the puck.
Game 2 might have been the strongest example of how the Preds found success without needing the puck. Natural Stat Trick’s metrics show the Canucks had a 74.42 shot share percentage, which meant they controlled the puck for nearly three-fourths of the game but struggled to score due in part to the Preds blocking 30 shots.
Getting in the way of all of those shots allowed them to create less work for Juuse Saros, who saved 17 of the 18 that got through. It’s also the first time all season that Saros finished a game with fewer than 20 saves that didn’t involve him getting pulled. — Clark
Have the Islanders learned their lesson?
There are some positives the New York Islanders can take from their two games against the Carolina Hurricanes. They played the Canes evenly through two periods in Game 1. They built a 3-0 lead in the first 23:54 of Game 2. But they lost both games in the third period — and in an extremely painful manner in that Game 2 loss, as the Hurricanes scored the game-tying and winning goals just nine seconds apart.
“This one’s long from over, but right now, this one hurts the gut,” Islanders captain Anders Lee said after the 5-3 loss in Raleigh in Game 2. Coach Patrick Roy said the team stopped winning one-on-one battles. Defenseman Noah Dobson said the Islanders tried to sit on a lead rather than continue pushing. That manifested in a 110-to-28 shot attempt advantage for Carolina in the game.
So it becomes gut-check time for the Islanders in Game 3 on Thursday night. They’ll swap out goalie Semyon Varlamov in favor of Ilya Sorokin. They’ll try to feed off their home fans like Carolina did theirs. And as star forward Mathew Barzal said a few times on Wednesday, they’ll try and stay in the right mindset for a rally.
“We were pissed off. There’s no hiding that. There wasn’t a ton of smiles after that,” Barzal said. “But this is the playoffs. We’re in good spirits here, regardless of the [series] score. We have a chance now at an epic comeback.” — Wyshynski
It all comes down to this. The Presidents’ Trophy-winning Winnipeg Jets host the St. Louis Blues in the 200th Game 7 in Stanley Cup playoffs history Sunday (7 p.m. ET, TBS).
One team will advance to the second round, while the other will get an early start to the offseason — and try to fix what went wrong.
For the Blues, this is the club’s 19th all-time Game 7, the most of any non-Original Six team. They have gone 10-8 in Games 7s, with the most recent one being the 2019 Stanley Cup Final against the Boston Bruins, which they won 4-1.
This version of the Jets has much less Game 7 history on which to draw; their only Game 7 was a second-round victory over the Nashville Predators in 2018.
Who wins this one? We’ve gathered the ESPN hockey family to identify the key players to watch in the contest — as well as their final score predictions.
Who is the one key player you’ll be watching in Jets-Blues?
Ryan S. Clark, NHL reporter: If he plays, it’s Mark Scheifele. The hit in Game 5 from Brayden Schenn and/or Radek Faksa generated quite a bit of conversation about what is arguably the most physically demanding series in the first round. Scheifele’s play this season and this series prior to the hit reinforces what makes him a legit top-line center in this league. We saw how the Jets maneuvered around his absence for the final two periods of Game 5, while Game 6 proved why they need contributions from everyone if he can’t go.
But again, that’s if Scheifele plays. He skated Saturday in a tracksuit, with Scott Arniel saying the center will be a game-time decision Sunday.
Arda Öcal, NHL broadcaster: Connor Hellebuyck is the obvious answer here for me because he’s been “Vezina” at home (especially Game 2) and “Vezina from Temu” on the road.
Hellebuyck has allowed four or more goals in seven straight road playoff games, which ties the second longest such streak in Stanley Cup playoff history. But Game 7 is at home. The pressure is on but he’s in comfortable confines, surrounded by a “Whiteout.” Which version of Hellebuyck do we get Sunday night?
Kristen Shilton, NHL reporter: Connor Hellebuyck, of course. Has there been a Jekyll/Hyde performance like this in recent years?
The Vezina finalist can play lights-out at home and like a fish out of water on the road. Does that trend continue in Game 7? What version of the goalie shows up for this one?
But as a bonus, I’ll toss Pavel Buchnevich into this equation. He’s been driving the Blues’ offense, and if Hellebuyck is on his A-game then St. Louis is going to need Buchnevich to channel his hat trick energy from Game 3 to help the Blues pull off a stunning road win.
Greg Wyshynski, NHL reporter: Jordan Binnington renewed his title as one of the NHL’s most clutch goaltenders with his 31-save performance in Team Canada’s 4 Nations Face-Off championship win over the U.S. — including six saves in overtime. He first earned it in 2019, backstopping the Blues to the Stanley Cup with Game 7 wins over Dallas and Boston.
Now he’s got a chance to reestablish those credentials.
Binnington had a 0.82 goals-against average and a .968 save percentage in those prior Game 7s. While Hellebuyck has been terrible in St. Louis, Binnington hasn’t been much better in Winnipeg, generating an .861 save percentage and a 3.44 goals-against average and giving up four goals in two of the three games. But as 4 Nations showed, Binnington can meet the moment. (Although this time, Kyle Connor will actually be in the lineup for the opposition. Not that we’re bitter or anything.)
The final score will be _____.
Clark: 4-3 Jets. There have been a few themes in this series. The first being that offense hasn’t been an issue — the teams have combined to score more than six goals in all but one game. The second is that the home team has won every game; I say that continues, and the Jets advance.
Öcal: 6-5 Jets. Hellebyuck doesn’t have his best game, but the Jets outscore that challenge, and Kyle Connor scores another third-period goal in this series to win it.
Shilton: 5-4 Jets. The Jets have been too good on home ice to let this one slip away. That’s not to say a St. Louis win would be surprising, but even if Hellebuyck is off, Winnipeg’s offense should be able to provide enough buffer that the Jets can squeak through with a narrow victory to advance.
Wyshynski: 5-3 Jets. The Jets would be toast if this game were played in St. Louis because it’s a demonstrable fact that Hellebuyck is a disaster on the road in the playoffs. He’s slightly below replacement at home in the postseason, but Winnipeg will take that considering his three removals on the road.
The Blues are first in the playoffs in 5-on-5 offense and goals-for percentage at home. But Winnipeg is second in both categories. Hellebuyck calms down, and the offense gets ratcheted up at home, especially now that Nikolaj Ehlers has a game under his belt, having not played since April 12 due to a foot injury.
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Ryan S. Clark
Many of Mikko Rantanen’s greatest moments have come in a Colorado Avalanche sweater. It’s just that the most defining moment of his career came at their expense.
It wasn’t enough that the Dallas Stars were trailing by two goals. It was also the fact that Rantanen scored a hat trick in a string of four unanswered goals that saw his current team, the host Stars, eliminate his old team, the Avalanche, in a 4-2 win Saturday in Game 7 of the Western Conference quarterfinals at the American Airlines Center.
“Obviously, the feeling was incredible to win a series,” Rantanen said in his postgame media availability. “This series was not exactly what I expected. I expected a seven-game series, even before Game 1. The ups and downs in the series. … Belief was there with the group the whole time. Obviously, I was able to make a pay to get the first one and the crowd started to roll.”
The Stars, attempting to reach the conference finals a third straight time, will advance to the semifinal round in which they will await the winner of series featuring the St. Louis Blues and Winnipeg Jets. That encounter will be decided Sunday in Game 7 in Winnipeg.
Soon, the Stars’ collective focus will shift to another Central Division foe. But for now? The attention before, during, and after the game, was on Rantanen.
Part of what made the Avalanche-Stars series arguably the most intriguing first-round series in either conference was the fact it placed two 100-point teams that are in championship window against each other. But, it also came with several subplots with the notable being the team that traded quite a bit to land Rantanen — with the hope he could win them a Stanley Cup now — needed him to defeat the team that he won a championship with back in 2022.
With one assist through the first four games, there was a discussion about if the Stars could manage to win with a sputtering Rantanen on top of the fact they were already without two of their best players in defenseman Miro Heiskanen and forward Jason Robertson.
Rantanen responded with a three-point performance in Game 5, and a four-point performance in Game 6 only to then have a hand in each goal on Saturday. His first goal came on the power-play with 12:12 remaining in the third period when he found enough space to fire a wrist shot that beat MacKenzie Blackwood.
Then came the game-tying goal and the significance it carried. The Stars went on the power play went Avalanche forward Jack Drury was called for holding. Drury part of the trade package the Carolina Hurricanes used to get Rantanen in late January before they would trade him to the Stars.
Drury’s penalty opened the door for Rantanen to score a game-tying goal that might be one of, if not, his signature salvo. Rantanen skated into the Avalanche zone in a 1-on-3 before he split two players before going around the net for a wrap-around goal that went off the skate of Samuel Girard with 6:14 left.
Three minutes later, the Stars received another power-play opportunity that saw Rantanen along with another former Avalanche forward in Matt Duchene work together to find Wyatt Johnston for the game-winning goal.
In the final minute, the Avalanche pulled Blackwood in the attempt to grab a late goal and force over time. Instead? Stars goaltender Jake Oettinger withstood a barrage that officially ended when Stars forward Tyler Seguin got the puck out of the zone only for Rantanen to skate in on an open net for the hat trick with three seconds left.
“I couldn’t care less who scored for them, I really couldn’t,” Avalanche captain and left winger Gabriel Landeskog said when asked about what it was like to watch Rantanen score a hat trick. “Mikko is one of my best friends and I love him, but I couldn’t care if he scored or if somebody else scored.”
For eight full seasons, Rantanen was part of a homegrown movement that saw the Avalanche go from finishing with what was then the worst record in the salary cap era back in 2016-17 to become a perennial favorite to win the Stanley Cup, which did they did in 2023, while also becoming a model for the need to build through the draft.
Building through stars such as Cale Makar, Nathan MacKinnon, Landeskog and Rantanen allowed the Avalanche to become a success. As did the moves they made to get other key figures like Valeri Nichushkin and Devon Toews.
Like all teams in a championship window, the Avs were facing the prospect of possibly making a difficult decision. They had yet to agree to a new contract with Rantanen, who was a pending unrestricted free agent. Then, came the blockbuster trade that few throughout the league saw coming.
The Avalanche traded Rantanen in a three-team trade that saw them get Martin Necas and Drury along with two draft picks. Rantanen’s time with the Carolina Hurricanes was limited to just two goals and six points in 13 games.
Despite the fact the Hurricanes are also among that cadre of championship contenders, Rantanen struggled to find cohesion in Raleigh. Rather than run the risk of watching leave for nothing in free agency, the Hurricanes put out feelers to a few teams with the Stars being one of them.
A long-time admirer of Rantanen, the Stars packaged two first-round picks, three second-round picks and former prized prospect Logan Stankoven to get Rantanen. They then signed him to an eight-year contract worth $12 million annually.
“It’s two things: It’s where our team’s at, and it’s Mikko Rantanen,” Stars general manager Jim Nill told ESPN back in March.
Rantanen finished the regular season with five goals and 18 points in 20 games prior to the showdown with his former team.
Not only did Rantanen’s hat trick condemn his former team to their second first-round exit since winning the Stanley Cup, but it continued a theme of former Avalanche eliminating their previous employers.
The Avalanche and Stars faced each other in last season’s Western Conference semifinal that saw Duchene, a former Colorado first-round pick, score the game-winning goal.
A year later, it was another former Avalanche first-round pick who delivered the devastating blow.
“It seems pretty fitting,” Johnston said about Rantanen. “Obviously, we want to win for each other and I think that goes a little extra when it’s a guy like that who is such a big part of our team and was there for a long time and everyone knows the trade that went on. It’s so awesome. We’re so happy as a group for him.”
As if Rantanen scoring a hat trick in a four-goal comeback wasn’t enough, there’s also the fact that this is now the ninth consecutive Game 7 that Stars coach Peter DeBoer has won his career.
DeBoer’s nine wins in Game 7s broke a tie with Darryl Sutter for the most in NHL history. It was also DeBoer’s third game 7 wins with the Stars.
“I felt something was going to happen,” DeBoer said. “But I could not have predicted that.”
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