‘It’s definitely something that’s alarming’: Pitchers on MLB’s pitching injury epidemic — and how to solve it
The rate of pitcher injuries in baseball has been a topic of conversation across the sport in recent years, but debate reached a boiling point when aces Shane Bieber and Spencer Strider and budding star Eury Perez all suffered season-ending elbow injuries just weeks into the 2024 MLB season. The wave of injuries led to dueling statements from the MLBPA and MLB about the potential root cause of the injuries.
We asked our MLB experts to talk to a handful of pitchers about what they believe is behind the rise — and what steps they would take to solve the growing problem.
How bad is MLB’s pitcher injury problem right now?
Trevor Rogers, starter, Miami Marlins: It’s definitely something that’s alarming. A fan that wants to see a game, it’s different when [Jacob] deGrom is on the mound or Gerrit Cole or Sandy [Alcantara]. Guys consistently going down is alarming.
Caleb Ferguson, reliever, New York Yankees: I definitely think it’s more now. And, to your point, it’s definitely the faces of the league.
Kirby Yates, reliever, Texas Rangers: I don’t know where the numbers are, but I think over the last two or three years, pitchers have been getting hurt at a very, very high rate [34.4% of MLB pitchers in 2022 and 35.3% in 2023 had undergone Tommy John surgery, according to baseball injury researcher Jon Roegele]. It’s getting magnified now because some of our best have been getting hurt. It’s definitely a concern. But with the way the game is going, and the way velocities are, how good hitters are, how small the strike zone has gotten, I don’t know how you change it.
Max Fried, starter, Atlanta Braves: There are injuries every year. There are definitely more high-profile injuries this year, but it’s definitely a tough subject just because there are so many different variables for why players get injuries.
Clarke Schmidt, starter, Yankees: It’s definitely scary and it’s something you definitely have to be cognizant of. But, obviously, you can’t just sit there and worry about it all day long. But I think it’s in the back of guys’ minds. But it’s just part of the game. Definitely a factor — and a little scary that they’re picking up a lot.
Velocity has been cited as one of the factors in rising injuries. How much do you believe that plays into the problem?
Ferguson: There’s a common theme with all these guys that are going down: They all throw 100. We’ve pushed velo so hard in the game that this is where we’re at and we have to try to figure out how to fix it.
Fried: There’s a correlation to it: The more velocity you have, the more stress it puts on joints, ligaments, etc. It’s obviously something that’s part of the equation.
Rogers: The past two years I was hunting velo and I got hurt. Thankfully it wasn’t season-ending. It was something I had to learn — that velo helps, it always plays. But there is more than one way to get a guy out. That’s by pitching and having velo. If you just focus on velo, it’s only a matter of time.
Drew Smyly, reliever, Chicago Cubs: Players know that “the harder I throw, the nastier my pitches are, the more money teams will throw at me.” That’s a real thing, too, and something every team promotes. The time of commanding pitches down and away and mixing speeds, that’s just not how the game is. Players know how to make money. That’s another element. There is so much information now. It goes all the way down to the high school kids. They know what spin rate is, what vertical movement is and what velocity they need to get to.
Steven Wilson, reliever, Chicago White Sox: There is a strong correlation between velocity and arm injuries. But there is also a strong correlation between velocity and people not hitting the ball. Guys want to get paid so they’re chasing velocity, which I don’t think is wrong. And I don’t think it’s going to change because if it is harder to hit, that’s what we’re trying to do.
Will Smith, reliever, Kansas City Royals: Velo is king right now, that’s for sure. Guys are chasing the high velo, and it makes sense. It’s harder to hit. I mean, if you give a guy less time to make a decision, they already don’t have much time to make a decision with the 90 [mph] now, and 100, 101 just cuts it in half almost. … When you see results like you do, you can’t help but to chase it down.
What about the pitch clock?
Mark Leiter Jr., reliever, Chicago Cubs: It’s probably the main factor. You have less time to recover. It’s really like we’re a big experiment and they’re seeing what they can do.
Fried: I don’t think [the pitch clock] is the sole reason, but it’s one of the variables. I think there’s a certain way to pace yourself, but any time you have to speed up and you’re tired and out of sync, you’re more susceptible to get out of rhythm.
Smyly: There are times throughout the game you definitely feel rushed or tired and not able to catch your breath, which could promote an injury. Our trainers say there have been studies that the oxygen in your [shoulder] muscles — when you’re doing something quick without a chance to recover — that could increase your chance for injury. With the pitch clock, sometimes you don’t have that time to take a deep breath.
Adam Ottavino, reliever, New York Mets: I don’t buy it as, like, the reason. But we don’t know the effects of the pitch clock. I mean I personally haven’t felt like it’s putting that type of stress on me, like, acute fatigue or whatever, something that would lend itself to me getting really hurt. But at the same time, if you have a really long inning out there and you have a hard time stopping yourself — you can get pretty gassed. Maybe that has some effect.
Ferguson: I think they made it too quick [by taking two more seconds off]. I’m telling you right now, my pitches in between innings have never felt more rushed. And like when I run out from the bullpen, I’ve never felt like I’ve been as rushed as what I have these past couple years — this year especially. … It’s just like, at what point are we just doing too much harm to put more butts in the seats?
Wilson: For lack of a better term, we s— the bed with that. We reduced the game by 37 minutes last year and they wanted more? How about a 20-second pitch clock all the time? There is a reason powerlifters don’t go rapidly. There needs to be a certain amount of recovery time in between max effort. Being fatigued can put you in a bad spot mechanically, and you can do it on one pitch.
Gerrit Cole, starter, Yankees: It is something that we have to adapt to. And every time you adapt to something there is a cost. I can’t sit here and show you exactly what the data is that says what exactly the cost is. … Everybody’s talking about the effect of the pitch clock just in one year. But what are MRIs going to look like 10 years from now? Five years from now? What are guys’ elbows going to look like pitching under the pitch clock for a prolonged period of time?
Is the baseball itself part of the problem?
Yates: I didn’t pitch for 2½ years [due to a 2021 Tommy John surgery], and when I started pitching again, there was a noticeable difference. Sometimes you get seams that are super high that kind of hurt your finger, and other times, you don’t have any seams. Sometimes the cover is really slick, and sometimes they are rubbed up well. There are inconsistencies all across the board. We deal with it every day and so we’re kind of used to it, but you know, it’s definitely frustrating.
Wilson: Yes. The clubbies are rubbing these balls up at noon. We’re getting the ball at 8:30 at night. When we get it, it’s basically covered in loose dirt. The mud has since dried. I’ll throw a ball out because there are no seams. The next one could be a high school ball with the seams. It’s very inconsistent.
Fried: To be completely honest, that’s not necessarily something that I notice. Do I think that sometimes the balls on some days, am I sweating a little bit more and I have a little less grip on the ball? Absolutely. Other days, are there days when I feel great and the ball feels great? Yes. I think this is in the category of “these are the conditions you have to play in today and you have to make the most of it.” The conditions are never going to be the same. … For me, there has always been a varied state of baseballs, and I just have to try to make the most of it.
Chris Flexen, starter, Chicago White Sox: It’s impossible to make zero imperfections, but the differences this year are not different than in the past. There are irregularities with the ball. Sometimes you get a ball that feels larger in the hand. Sometimes the laces feel higher. Sometimes there are no laces. Sometimes it feels like a cue ball.
Jordan Wicks, starter, Chicago Cubs: I think the ball is fine. Balls are going to be different. You can’t make every ball the same. They tried last year at Double-A, that was terrible. Balls in April, in Boston, are going to feel different than balls in Miami in July. That’s just a part of the game.
What are some other factors contributing to the rise?
Ferguson: Analytics. Not to beat a dead horse — but I think Verlander’s interview was spot on with it. I think it’s a combination of everything that you put into the game now. The pitch clock. The sticky [stuff]. The analytics. The baseball. Everything is different. … Now it’s not about pitching. It’s just about the stuff.
Garrett Crochet, starter, Chicago White Sox: I think it’s a culmination of everything. When I was in youth baseball, I didn’t throw hard. And when I was in high school, I wasn’t chasing velocity or spin rate or anything. It was just, “Oh, that looked good.” The accessibility to all the technology has changed things. … Everyone wants to throw the grossest pitch possible and now you have numbers that you can literally chase.
Cole: In 2017 I finished the year with a 4.20 and led the league in games started and had over 200 innings. It would be hard for somebody in this game right now to run a 4.20 out there, and their club’s going to push them for 33 starts and over 200 innings because the standard of performance is higher. The league is demanding that you throw your best pitch every single time because the hitters are better, the strike zone is smaller, the balls are different, the bats are different. We’ve just evolved into just a higher performance product, which is good. …
When guys were more healthy, we weren’t able to go into a pitching lab and concoct a new pitch and then use that at a 35% clip for the next six months and only have practiced it two months before we roll it out. Like we have no data on that. … It’s certainly a variable that’s out there. Along with the importance of spin, the importance of velocity and the importance of location … They’re all contributing factors.
Yates: The strike zone has gotten smaller, and guys are pitching to the computer — having to spin the ball to a certain amount, to make them break a certain amount. Hitters are really good in the strike zone. So you have to be really good in the strike zone, and everything you throw has to be nasty, with high intensity. … You don’t really have a grace period off the strike zone. In the past, with some umpires, you’d get the outside corner, but they wouldn’t give you the inside corner. Stuff like that. Now, you have to get the ball over the plate, and you have to be really good over the plate. You can’t really trick anybody. It’s really hard to do.
What is the first step you would take to address MLB’s pitching injury issue?
Cole: Well, we can start by having more helpful conversations and not pointing fingers. And not saying that it’s absolutely this or it’s absolutely not that. And we can make it feel like players aren’t necessarily caught in the middle of all of it. Especially because pitchers are so different. Each guy is different. Some guys train better with high volume and low intensity. Some guys train better with low volume and high intensity. It’s just different organisms. So it’s not a blanket thing for the league. One of these rule changes — or one of these variables could’ve affected a certain group of guys more than another group of guys. And vice versa. … We need to get on the same page to at least try to fix it.
Ferguson: I think with pushing velo and pushing stuff as hard as what we have, now we have to figure out how to bring it back but keep everything else that’s been added to a pitcher’s routine before he throws a pitch. You gotta figure out how to keep all that and bring back down all the injuries.
Ottavino: Ultimately, [it’s] never going to stop until they engineer the game to take some of that out of it, whether it’s rule changes or roster limits, that kind of stuff, which is probably going to come down the pike at some point. I also think scouts just decide, “We’re not interested in high school guys that throw 95,” which will probably never happen. But if they were prioritizing a guy who can grow into his body but had the pitchability and threw like 90, 94, I feel like that type of trajectory lends itself to maybe having a little more of a chance of staying healthy. I worry about guys that throw 100 in the minor leagues. How long can you do that for?
Yates: We pitchers have complained about pitchers having a grip on a baseball for years and they’ve done absolutely nothing to help out with that, it’s actually the reverse. We could start there. If they addressed the cover of the baseball and we could hold on a little bit better, it might make us spin the ball a little bit better.
I do think there was a point where the stickiness got carried away — I do agree with that — but as pitchers, it’s a very uncomfortable feeling when you don’t have a good grip on the baseball. When you don’t have a good grip, you tend to squeeze the life out of it. I’m not an expert, but I think that just based on feel, and having to grip a baseball really tight, when you wake up the next morning, your arm does feel a little bit different. Fix the baseball, start there. And then you see what happens.
Wilson: A lot of it is individual. Each guy’s body moves differently. Each guy’s arm moves differently. I think it’s up to the individual to find a good strength and conditioning program to get their body right, to get their mechanics right. We need to be in good, healthier positions. There is enough biomechanical data to know there is less stress on the arm if it’s higher up at foot plant. Nothing will eliminate TJ [Tommy John surgery] — but things like this could help.
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Bill Connelly
It seems like only yesterday that Florida State was running circles around Alabama, LSU was scoring a statement win over Clemson, Miami was defeating Notre Dame in a game with potential playoff stakes, and James Franklin and Brian Kelly were coaching top-10 teams.
College football has the shortest regular season around but remains capable of endless plot twists. A mere 13 weeks from Week 1, Florida State and Penn State are 5-6, Clemson is 6-5, Kelly is out of a job, Franklin has found a new one and, because of another couple of late-game failures, Miami is again just on the outside of the College Football Playoff looking in (while Notre Dame is again safe).
Now we get to find out how the story ends. Who will survive the intricate web of tiebreakers to reach conference title games? What surprises might fierce rivalry games provide? And most importantly, how much small-school playoff football do you plan on watching?
It’s time to feast on Thanksgiving and on football. It’s Rivalry Week! Here’s everything you need to follow.
Two huge rivalry games starring favorites as spoilers
Rivalry Week’s superpower is its depth. Everywhere you look — from the Egg Bowl to the Territorial Cup to the Battle on the Bayou (Louisiana-ULM) to the Battle for the Fremont Cannon (Nevada-UNLV) — you’ll find games that will define fans’ outlooks for an entire offseason.
It’s nice to have some bell-cow games, though. And two of the sport’s loudest rivalries have major stakes this year.
No. 1 Ohio State at No. 15 Michigan (Saturday, noon, Fox)
I don’t know if you’ve heard, but Ohio State hasn’t beaten Michigan in a while. Since the start of 2021, the Buckeyes are 0-4 in The Game and 58-4 in all others. They went through a full-on existential crisis after last year’s loss, then rallied to whomp four straight opponents and win the national title.
On Saturday, the Buckeyes will try out a new role for a new era: unbeaten spoiler. They’re safely in the CFP no matter what, though they could still lose their spot in the Big Ten championship game. (I guess that would be a bad thing?) But with a win, they could ensure that Michigan is out of the CFP running. That’s probably enough motivation.
Last week, Michigan provided a complete performance with a 45-20 win over Maryland. Reserve running backs Bryson Kuzdzal and Tomas O’Meara, in because of injuries, rushed for a combined 171 yards, and the defense allowed touchdowns on only the Terps’ first and last drives. Bryce Underwood ranks 12th in QBR in November, and the Wolverines are 10th in defensive SP+.
Ohio State has been so ruthlessly automatic that we still don’t know everything we need to know about quarterback Julian Sayin. Even with star receivers Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate battling injuries of late, Sayin has completed 79% of his passes with 27 TDs to four interceptions, but he has also thrown just 25 fourth-quarter passes. How will he perform when facing constant pressure? We don’t know. (Of course, Penn State got in his face a lot and he went 20-for-23.) Can he lead a late, do-or-die drive? We don’t know. (Granted, he’s 15-for-18 for 223 yards when trailing.)
Smith appears likely to play Saturday, but Tate’s status remains uncertain. This might be the stiffest defensive test Sayin has faced, but it’s definitely the stiffest Underwood has faced, and he doesn’t have the healthiest skill corps either. The pressure is all on Michigan for a change.
Current line: Buckeyes -11.5 | SP+ projection: Buckeyes by 14.6 | FPI projection: Buckeyes by 8.5
No. 3 Texas A&M at No. 16 Texas (Friday, 7:30 p.m., ABC)
For 15 years, Texas A&M (which beat Texas 24-17 in 2010) has been able to say it won its last trip to Austin. If the Aggies can still say that Saturday morning, they’ll have wrapped up their first unbeaten regular season since 1939, clinched their first SEC championship game appearance and officially knocked Texas out of CFP contention.
Texas just hasn’t looked the part for much of 2025. Projected fifth in SP+, the Longhorns are currently 23rd with a defense that has allowed more than 30 points for four straight games and an offense that only recently began carrying its weight. Of course, Arch Manning ranks ninth in QBR in November, and while he has derived loads of success from short, easy passes, the offense is indeed clicking even if the defense isn’t.
Two weeks ago against South Carolina, A&M’s Marcel Reed put together just about the worst first half (6-for-19 with two interceptions and two sacks) and best second half (16-for-20 for 298 yards and three TDs) of his life. You can’t ever say A&M is out of a game if Reed is around to dig the Aggies out of a hole, but he also might be part of the reason they’re in the hole to begin with.
Current line: A&M -2.5 | SP+ projection: A&M by 5.3 | FPI projection: Texas by 0.3
Which contender falls on the road?
Of the 11 teams ranked from fourth to 14th in the CFP rankings, nine play on the road this weekend. A few could survive a loss with a CFP bid intact, but with so many similar teams packed together, you don’t really want to find out if you’re on the “could survive” list.
Based on SP+ win probabilities, there’s only about a 7% chance that these nine teams all win and there is a 37% chance that at least three lose. Chaos looms. Let’s talk about each of the nine games, going from the most likely to the least likely defeats for the contenders.
No. 14 Vanderbilt at No. 19 Tennessee (Saturday, 3:30 p.m., ESPN)
Tennessee and Vanderbilt have had basically the same season: They’re a combined 0-4 against teams in the SP+ top 12 (UT 0-3, VU 0-1) and 17-1 against everyone else (UT 8-0, VU 9-1). They have the same general strengths (ruthlessly efficient offenses) and weaknesses (defenses that show up only occasionally). Vols fans are probably annoyed that their team is out of the playoff running because their schedule was slightly harder, but they can exact some level of vengeance with a win Saturday.
My Heisman points race totals suggest Diego Pavia‘s odds should be better than they are. He’ll have to torch Tennessee’s (occasionally torchable) defense to make a good final impression. But Joey Aguilar is capable of doing the same. Both are in the best quadrant of this chart:
Both defenses played well last week against limited opponents, but the offenses have the advantage here.
Current line: Vols -2.5 | SP+ projection: Vols by 0.7 | FPI projection: Vols by 2.0
No. 12 Miami at No. 22 Pitt (Saturday, noon, ABC)
Since walloping a good USF team in Week 3, Miami has played three SP+ top-40 teams — Florida State, Louisville and SMU — and lost to two. The defense has been consistently strong; the Canes are seventh in points allowed per drive, and they could give Pitt quarterback Mason Heintschel hell if the Panthers’ run game isn’t sharp enough. But the Miami offense has been dragged down at times by a lack of explosiveness and forced to score via long drives with lots of snaps.
That makes Pitt a fascinating matchup: The Panthers come at you, risking explosive plays in exchange for three-and-outs. Miami receivers Malachi Toney, Keelan Marion and CJ Daniels have had their game-breaking moments, but they’re averaging just 12.2 yards per catch altogether. If they don’t find and exploit open spaces, an upset looms.
Current line: Miami -6.5 | SP+ projection: Miami by 6.0 | FPI projection: Miami by 5.2
No. 10 Alabama at Auburn (Saturday, 7:30 p.m., ABC)
In the past three seasons, Auburn has played 14 ranked opponents; the Tigers have gone 1-13 but with nine one-score defeats. When you come so consistently close, you’re always a threat.
Auburn’s defense is elite against the run, but Alabama has all but given up on the ground game. The Tide choose instead to put everything on quarterback Ty Simpson‘s shoulders, and despite a solid pass rush Auburn ranks 93rd in yards allowed per dropback. That’s a problem, but the Tigers could make things confusing on offense. Both Ashton Daniels (against Vandy) and Deuce Knight (against Mercer) have enjoyed fantastic performances since Hugh Freeze’s firing, and there isn’t a ton of tape on either of them. If Auburn keeps this one uncomfortably close — or pulls off a terribly damaging upset — the element of surprise could be a major reason.
Current line: Bama -5.5 | SP+ projection: Bama by 6.0 | FPI projection: Bama by 6.5
No. 6 Oregon at Washington (Saturday, 3:30 p.m., CBS)
Oregon might not need a win in Seattle to secure a playoff bid, but if other favorites win and it doesn’t, things could get tense.
Washington’s run defense is stout enough to push the Ducks off schedule and force quarterback Dante Moore to hit big third-and-long throws that he hasn’t always made this season. But this game will likely come down to quarterback Demond Williams Jr. and the Washington offense. They’ve dominated all but the most elite defenses.
Washington vs. two top-10 defenses (per SP+): 6.5 points per game, 4.5 yards per play
Washington vs. everyone else: 42.0 points per game, 7.0 yards per play
Unfortunately for the Huskies, Oregon ranks fifth in defensive SP+. If Williams gets going, Washington can beat anyone. But it would be the first time he has done so against a defense this good.
Current line: Ducks -6.5 | SP+ projection: Ducks by 6.7 | FPI projection: Ducks by 7.1
No. 4 Georgia at No. 23 Georgia Tech (Friday, 3:30 p.m., ABC)
November has been a nightmare for Georgia Tech. After an 8-0 start, the Yellow Jackets have lost two of three, their defense giving up 41.3 points per game. Last week’s loss to Pitt removed a lot of stakes from this game. Luckily, coach Brent Key, a former Tech lineman, has enough hatred for Georgia to keep the stakes as high as possible.
If you can’t stop Georgia’s run game, the Dawgs will just keep at it, and that might be all that matters in this one. But Tech’s offense remains excellent. Haynes King has thrown for at least 300 yards in three of his past four games, and he has rushed for more than 85 non-sack yards seven times in 2025. King almost willed the Jackets to victory over UGA last season but fell just short. He’ll try again in his last Tech home game (although this one will be at Mercedes-Benz Stadium and not Bobby Dodd).
Current line: UGA -13.5 | SP+ projection: UGA by 12.9 | FPI projection: UGA by 13.8
No. 7 Ole Miss at Mississippi State (Friday, noon, ABC)
First things first: Yes, the current college football calendar stinks, and it was always conceivable that a coach would get wooed by blue-blood schools amid a playoff push. But as others have noted, this isn’t happening to Lane Kiffin. It’s happening to Ole Miss because Kiffin is actually thinking about leaving. There are plenty of legitimate reasons to weigh a blue-blood move — tradition, recruiting bases, an epic and ridiculous salary offer — but this is still his own doing.
Ole Miss is much better than MSU. The Rebels combine a steady run game with high tempo and high-ceiling passing. The defense has been mediocre against the run but strong against the pass. That pairs well against a Bulldogs team that makes big plays here and there but goes three-and-out too often and can’t stop even an average run game. With no distractions or rivalry weirdness, Ole Miss cruises. But, wow, is it difficult to assume no distractions or rivalry weirdness.
Current line: Rebels -7.5 | SP+ projection: Rebels by 14.3 | FPI projection: Rebels by 8.5
No. 13 Utah at Kansas (Friday, noon, ESPN)
Utah’s defense has allowed 75 points in the past two weeks, and star defensive end John Henry Daley is likely out for the season with a leg injury. But Kansas has lost four of five since a 4-2 start. The Jayhawks’ offense has underachieved against projections in every game since September, and Utah has scored at least 45 points in six of seven games. The Utes dodged a bullet with last week’s comeback win over Kansas State, and maybe the defense can’t right the ship. But signs still point to them reaching 10-2.
Current line: Utah -13.5 | SP+ projection: Utah by 15.1 | FPI projection: Utah by 11.0
No. 5 Texas Tech at West Virginia (Saturday, noon, ESPN)
Over the past four weeks, WVU’s defense has made the most tackles for loss in the Big 12, while new quarterback Scotty Fox Jr. has become a more and more explosive passer. The Mountaineers have won two of three since a 2-6 start. Will any of this matter against Texas Tech? Probably not. The Red Raiders are on a different plane of existence in the trenches, and they’ve won four games by an average of 41-9 since quarterback Behren Morton returned from injury.
Current line: Tech -20.5 | SP+ projection: Tech by 31.5 | FPI projection: Tech by 18.5
No. 9 Notre Dame at Stanford (Saturday, 10:30 p.m., ESPN)
A game with CFP stakes will end at around 2 a.m. ET Sunday. Convenient. There shouldn’t be much drama, though. Notre Dame has won its past three games by an average of 52-11, and while Stanford has improved of late and scored a rousing rivalry win over Cal last week, its offense is still destitute. It will take epic rivalry magic for this to remain close past midnight.
Current line: Irish -32.5 | SP+ projection: Irish by 31.7 | FPI projection: Irish by 24.9
Does the ACC have another round of surprises?
Back in the 2010s, the ACC Coastal division was the shining light for either parity or slapstick. All seven of its members won the division title once from 2013 to 2019, and all seven proceeded to lose the ACC championship game. (That’s why we got rid of divisions — they were usually terribly unequal.)
The spirit of the Coastal lives. It’s in the walls; there’s no getting it out. Starting with Clemson in the preseason, the conference favorite per SP+ has changed, wait for it, seven times this year and has done so for each of the past four weeks. Odds suggest we’ll probably get an SMU-Virginia title game next week, but since when do odds matter in this league? Four other teams have at least a slight chance at taking advantage if (when?) the Mustangs or Cavaliers slip up, including whoever wins Miami-Pitt (listed above).
No. 21 SMU at California (Saturday, 8 p.m., ESPN2)
SMU began the season 2-2, falling out of the SP+ top 50 from a starting point of 19th. Since October began, however, the Mustangs have gone 6-1 and surged all the way back to 24th. The defense rounded into form first, then the offense followed. The Mustangs still can’t run as well as expected, but quarterback Kevin Jennings has thrown for 994 yards and seven touchdowns in three November games.
Now comes an odd test: Cal just fired Justin Wilcox after his Golden Bears followed an upset of Louisville with a catastrophic, error-strewn loss to Stanford. Interim coaches have done well this season, and Cal can combine solid pass defense with an occasionally productive Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele-to-Jacob De Jesus pass combo. But this game will probably come down to SMU: If the Mustangs keep hitting the notes they’ve been hitting, they’ll head back to Charlotte in a week and a half.
Current line: SMU -10.5 | SP+ projection: SMU by 16.5 | FPI projection: SMU by 12.8
Virginia Tech at No. 18 Virginia (Saturday, 7 p.m., ESPN)
In the past 45 years, Virginia has been a double-digit favorite against rival Virginia Tech just once, in 1985. The Cavaliers lost 28-10. In fact, they’ve been favored over Tech 14 times in that span and have gone just 7-7 in those games. In terms of general rivalry nonsense, that’s delightful. But surely they can’t lose this one, right? Tech has lost five of six, Virginia has won eight of nine, and a win would take the Hoos to Charlotte for just the second time. Surely not, right?
To the Hokies’ credit, they haven’t stopped fighting. They made Louisville and Miami sweat for a while, but they just haven’t had the horses, especially on defense. Tech’s run game could test UVA, but even against an inconsistent Cavaliers offense, the Hokies will still have to make stops, and that has been a major issue.
Current line: UVA -11.5 | SP+ projection: UVA by 22.2 | FPI projection: UVA by 9.5
Down to the wire in the Group of 5
After weeks of turnover atop the Group of 5 hierarchy, last Saturday was actually stable, with the three current favorites (Tulane, North Texas and James Madison) all winning. If that continues — and SP+ suggests there’s only about a 15% chance one of them loses this week — we know where things stand: Tulane and North Texas will face off for the American title while JMU will hope to score style points against either Southern Miss or Troy in the Sun Belt championship game.
Temple at North Texas (Friday, 3:30 p.m., ESPN)
North Texas is essentially the mid-major USC: The Mean Green have a relentless passing game, a good run game, a solid pass defense and a very worrisome run defense. Earlier in the season, that might have been something Temple could take advantage of, but in November the Owls are averaging just 85 non-sack rushing yards per game and 4.0 yards per carry. If you can’t punish the Mean Green between the tackles, they will overwhelm you with points.
Current line: UNT -19.5 | SP+ projection: UNT by 24.0 | FPI projection: UNT by 17.7
James Madison at Coastal Carolina (Saturday, 3:45 p.m., ESPNU)
Despite a recent two-game skid, Coastal has scored 40-plus in four straight Sun Belt games thanks to big rushes from quarterback Samari Collier and an increase in aggressive downfield completions. Nothing really worked in a blowout loss to South Carolina last week — and honestly, on paper JMU’s defense might be better than South Carolina’s — but the Chanticleers’ big-play hunting makes them an intriguing candidate to pull an upset (or get totally thumped).
Current line: JMU -21.5 | SP+ projection: JMU by 21.6 | FPI projection: JMU by 17.8
Charlotte at No. 24 Tulane (Saturday, 7:30 p.m., ESPNU)
Tim Albin left an established culture at Ohio to build a new one at Charlotte. It might take a little while. His 49ers are 0-10 against FBS competition, and they haven’t lost by fewer than 17 since September. They might test Tulane with some vertical passing, but with the Green Wave playing a pretty good bend-don’t-break routine of late, I doubt it works. And every other matchup drastically favors Jake Retzlaff and the Wave.
Current line: Tulane -29.5 | SP+ projection: Tulane by 33.8 | FPI projection: Tulane by 28.2
Week 14 chaos superfecta
We’re again using this space to will chaos into existence, looking at four carefully curated games with pretty big point spreads and mashing them together into a much more upset-friendly number. Thanks to Utah’s late comeback against Kansas State, we missed out last week and fell to 6-7 for the season. It’s time to claw back to .500!
SP+ says there’s only a 47% chance that Ole Miss (82% win probability against Mississippi State), Ohio State (82% against Michigan), Louisiana (84% against ULM) and UNLV (84% against Nevada) all win. Let’s take down a favored rival!
Week 14 playlist
From Thursday night to Saturday night, here are more games you should pay attention to if you want to get the absolute most out of the weekend, from both information and entertainment perspectives.
Thursday
Navy at Memphis (7:30 p.m., ESPN). If either American favorite slips up, Navy could be ready to grab a conference title game bid with a track-meet win Thanksgiving night. The Midshipmen have given up more than 30 points in six straight games, and Memphis has done so in four of five. May we be blessed with a repeat of last season’s 100-point, 1,225-yard feast.
Current line: Memphis -5.5 | SP+ projection: Memphis by 11.5 | FPI projection: Memphis by 9.9
Early Friday
Iowa at Nebraska (noon, CBS). Both of these teams were hoping for better than 7-4 records this season, and Iowa in particular was painfully close to something far greater. Regardless, this has become a must-watch game: The past seven matchups have been decided by one score. Iowa has been the better team in 2025, but the Hawkeyes are only 2-4 in one-score finishes. Nebraska is 4-2.
Current line: Iowa -5.5 | SP+ projection: Iowa by 4.1 | FPI projection: Iowa by 2.3
Friday afternoon
San Diego State at New Mexico (3:30 p.m., CBSSN). If SDSU wins, the Aztecs are assured of a spot in the Mountain West title game, and we potentially avoid tiebreaker hell. But New Mexico, now 70th in SP+ — the last time the Lobos finished in the top 70 was 2007 — has an efficient passing game, a quickly improving defense and could make the race awfully messy with a home upset.
Current line: SDSU -1.5 | SP+ projection: SDSU by 4.7 | FPI projection: SDSU by 0.5
Friday evening
No. 2 Indiana at Purdue (7:30 p.m., NBC). After nine games of mostly comprehensive brilliance, Indiana has underachieved against SP+ projections by 9.8 points per game over its past two. Did the Hoosiers peak early? Did they just get bored? Will that matter against a fading Purdue team that has lost its past two games by a combined 83-23? Surely the Spoilermakers couldn’t spoil the Hoosiers’ party, right?
Current line: IU -28.5 | SP+ projection: IU by 33.9 | FPI projection: IU by 28.6
Late Friday
No. 25 Arizona at Arizona State (9 p.m., Fox). If Kansas upsets Utah earlier Friday, a win would keep ASU’s Big 12 title hopes alive. But Arizona has won four straight and has risen to 25th in SP+. ASU could exploit a suspect Wildcats run defense with Raleek Brown and quarterback Jeff Sims, but the Sun Devils must avoid passing downs and make some stops against an improving Arizona offense.
Current line: Arizona -1.5 | SP+ projection: Arizona by 4.0 | FPI projection: ASU by 0.4
Early Saturday
UCF at No. 11 BYU (1 p.m., ESPN2). Two years ago, 5-6 BYU nearly wrecked Oklahoma State’s Big 12 championship plans in Stillwater, bolting to an 18-point lead but falling in double overtime. (That’s right, kids, OSU was once good at football! Way back in 2023!) Now comes a reversal. The Cougars are one win away from the title game but must fend off a 5-6 UCF team with speed and no semblance of consistency.
Current line: BYU -18.5 | SP+ projection: BYU by 19.1 | FPI projection: BYU by 21.3
Clemson at South Carolina (noon, SECN). These two preseason top-15 teams are a combined 11-12, having fallen victim to poor development, close losses, mediocre new hires and any number of other afflictions. But that’s why Rivalry Week is amazing: This game is still going to be intense and hostile, and the winner will get a dose of positivity before a challenging offseason.
Current line: S.C. -2.5 | SP+ projection: Clemson by 0.5 | FPI projection: S.C. by 3.4
Toledo at Central Michigan (noon, ESPN+). Since a shocking loss to Bowling Green sent Toledo to 1-2 in conference play, the Rockets have won their past four MAC games by an average of 37-6. Their defense ranks fifth nationally in points allowed per drive. But CMU has won four of five to remain in the hunt. Who keeps title hopes alive (until Miami maybe dashes them later in the day)?
Current line: Toledo -10.5 | SP+ projection: Toledo by 10.3 | FPI projection: CMU by 9.5
Saturday afternoon
LSU at No. 8 Oklahoma (3:30 p.m., ABC). This one almost certainly belonged in one of the marquee categories above, but while so many other playoff contenders take to the road over Rivalry Week, OU has a less complicated task: win at home against an LSU team with a nonexistent offense, and the Sooners are in the CFP.
The Oklahoma offense could make this one complicated: LSU ranks ninth in defensive SP+, and OU has averaged only 14.8 offensive points and 4.6 yards per play against defenses ranked higher than 20th. But the Tigers scored only 13 points on Western Kentucky last week; 14 by the Sooners could be enough.
Current line: OU -10.5 | SP+ projection: OU by 11.7 | FPI projection: OU by 6.6
Troy at Southern Miss (3:30 p.m., ESPN+). The Sun Belt race is simple: The winner in Hattiesburg faces James Madison in the title game. Southern Miss no-showed against Texas State and fell at South Alabama to drop to 7-4. The Golden Eagles are increasingly vulnerable on defense, but Troy’s offense ranks 125th in yards per play. The Trojans are here because of red zone defense and a fierce pass rush.
Current line: USM -6.5 | SP+ projection: USM by 2.5 | FPI projection: USM by 1.5
Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State (2 p.m., ESPN+). The winner is guaranteed a spot in the Conference USA title game. JSU had won five in a row until a misstep last week at Florida International, and WKU has won three straight CUSA games and nearly toppled LSU last week. Which young QB — JSU’s Caden Creel or WKU’s Rodney Tisdale Jr. — handles the moment better?
Current line: WKU -2.5 | SP+ projection: WKU by 3.7 | FPI projection: JSU by 0.3
Wisconsin at Minnesota (3:30 p.m., FS1). The road team has won three straight in this strange series. In its past four games, Wisconsin has overachieved against SP+ projections by 20.8 points per game. Minnesota has underachieved by 9.7. Can the Badgers win to wrap up the happiest possible 5-7 finish? Or will Minnesota rally to grab Paul Bunyan’s Axe for the fourth time in five years?
Current line: Minnesota -2.5 | SP+ projection: Minnesota by 7.0 | FPI projection: Wisconsin by 0.3
Penn State at Rutgers (3:30 p.m., BTN). Along with Georgia Southern-Marshall (1:30 p.m., ESPN+) and Arkansas State-Appalachian State (2:30 p.m., ESPN+), we have a trio of “Winner bowls, loser stays home” games with 5-6 teams squaring off Saturday afternoon.
Penn State has been legitimately strong under interim coach Terry Smith, and Ethan Grunkemeyer‘s 71.4 Total QBR toasts that of injured veteran Drew Allar (56.6). It would be a surprise if the Nittany Lions slipped up this close to the finish line against a Rutgers team that has lost six of eight.
Current line: PSU -11.5 | SP+ projection: PSU by 14.4 | FPI projection: PSU by 11.1
Saturday evening
Northwestern at Illinois (7:30 p.m., Fox). POTENTIAL SNOW GAME ALERT. The forecast in Champaign is looking pretty dicey, and here’s a big “hell yes” to that. The road team has won four of five in this series, but Illinois has been infinitely better at home than on the road this season. Of course, Luke Altmyer and the Illini offense have underachieved for weeks. Can they rally on senior night?
Current line: Illinois -6.5 | SP+ projection: Illinois by 11.3 | FPI projection: Illinois by 6.3
North Carolina at NC State (7:30 p.m., ACCN). This is Bill Belichick’s first foray into one of the sport’s most underrated rivalries. UNC was rallying toward bowl eligibility before last week’s tight loss to Duke. Now the Tar Heels head to Raleigh to face an NC State team that is both physical and maddeningly inconsistent. A Wolfpack blowout? A UNC upset? Nothing would be particularly surprising.
Current line: NC State -7.5 | SP+ projection: NC State by 9.4 | FPI projection: NC State by 8.7
UCLA at No. 17 USC (7:30 p.m., NBC). After a brief upturn following DeShaun Foster’s firing, UCLA has bottomed out again, losing its past four games by an average of 45-13. Staying close might require a solid amount of rivalry magic, but USC could be reeling after last week’s loss to Oregon officially eliminated the Trojans from CFP contention.
Current line: USC -20.5 | SP+ projection: USC by 27.3 | FPI projection: USC by 23.6
Late Saturday
UNLV at Nevada (9 p.m., CBSSN). They play for a cannon, and they had a nasty brawl in the not-so-distant past. Major “underrated rivalry” points here. Nevada has suddenly started playing well of late, and while we don’t know if UNLV will still have MWC title hopes by kickoff, the Rebels could hit double-digit wins for the second straight year.
Current line: UNLV -9.5 | SP+ projection: UNLV by 15.8 | FPI projection: UNLV by 10.4
Smaller-school showcase
Let’s once again save a shoutout for the glorious lower levels of the sport. The playoffs are underway in every division, and while the favorites probably aren’t going to be tested just yet, here’s a game you should track at each level.
FCS round of 24: No. 21 Yale at No. 13 Youngstown State (12 p.m., ESPN+). Two Ivy League teams reached the FCS playoffs in the Ancient Eight’s first year of accepting bids, and while Harvard (at Villanova, noon, ESPN+) appears to be losing steam quickly, Yale is peaking just in time. The Bulldogs have won their past six and have risen to 12th in SP+. Youngstown State is only 24th, but the Penguins score loads of points with dual-threat quarterback and Payton Award candidate Beau Brungard, and with their status as FCS royalty, I’m guessing they want to send a message against the playoff newcomers from the Northeast.
SP+ projection: Yale by 3.3
Division II round of 16: No. 10 Texas-Permian Basin at No. 15 Western Colorado (Saturday, 3 p.m., ESPN+). A week after thumping No. 4 CSU-Pueblo to score the school’s first playoff win, UTPB returns to Colorado to face a WCU team fresh off of a top-five win of its own over Central Washington. This is a dynamite quarterback matchup — UTPB’s Kanon Gibson vs. WCU’s Drew Nash — and though the winner probably will face a massive task against No. 2 Harding, a quarterfinal berth would be sweet all the same.
SP+ projection Western by 5.6
Division III round of 32: No. 20 Wheaton at No. 5 Wartburg (1 p.m., ESPN+). I bet you thought I’d choose one of four teams from the Wisconsin Intercollegiate Athletic Conference — my own personal obsession — for this section, but I resisted because this game seems particularly exciting. Wartburg gives up only 10 points per game and piles up tackles for loss with a ridiculously active defensive front. Wheaton, meanwhile, averages 48.6 points behind the arm of quarterback Mark Forcucci.
SP+ projection: Wartburg by 0.5
NAIA quarterfinals: No. 9 Morningside at No. 8 College of Idaho (3 p.m., local streaming). College of Idaho reached the NAIA semifinals a couple of years ago thanks to a dynamite offense, but the Yotes have earned a huge home game this year thanks to defense. Morningside is NAIA royalty, having won three national titles since 2018, and with Zach Chevalier throwing to Drew Sellon and Lennx Brown, the Mustangs might have the best passing attack in NAIA.
SP+ projection: Morningside by 8.3
LAS VEGAS — Golden Knights captain Mark Stone, back in the lineup after being out for more than a month because of a wrist injury, scored a tying power-play goal in the third period Wednesday, but Vegas dropped a 4-3 shootout loss to the Ottawa Senators.
Vegas dropped to 1-8 in overtime games. The Golden Knights have points in seven of eight games, but four were overtime losses.
Stone, who was placed on injured reserve Oct. 20, had 13 points in his first six games before getting hurt.
“It’s good to have his energy back,” coach Bruce Cassidy said before Wednesday’s loss. “He’s good on the bench. He’s a leader. It’s just nice to have him back. He makes our team better.”
Stone had been skating with the Golden Knights’ American Hockey League affiliate in Henderson, Nevada.
“If I didn’t have that, I’d probably be looking more at Friday,” Stone said of his return. “Everything’s healed. I got the practices I needed. I’m ready to go.”
Stone was on the top line when he was injured but was on the third-line center against the Senators, with Mitch Marner moving to wing. Braeden Bowman, a 22-year-old rookie, remained on the top line with Jack Eichel and Ivan Barbashev.
This was not the first time the 33-year-old Stone has been injured in recent seasons. He played 66 games last season, his most since the 2018-19 season.
“Every injury is frustrating,” Stone said before Wednesday’s game. “I don’t enjoy rehabbing. I’ve unfortunately gotten good at it. I understand the best way to go about it, but no rehab’s fun. I don’t wish it on anyone. I’m excited to be back.”
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
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