Rishi Sunak will feel ‘reset week’ was job well done – but a horrible reality check awaits

Published

1 year ago

April 26, 2024

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Call it the Rishi Sunak reset week or, to borrow from The Spectator’s Katy Balls, the shore-up Sunak week – the prime minister will be going into this weekend feeling the past few days have been a job well done.

He has got his flagship Rwanda bill through parliament and is promising a “regular rhythm” of flights will be getting off the ground from July.

He has also got off the ground himself, with a dash to Poland and then Germany, in a show of strength with European allies in the face of Russian aggression.

As the US finally approved a $61bn military aid package for Ukraine, our prime minister announced he’d lift the UK’s defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2030.

That would amount to £87bn a year by the start of the 2030s, with the UK spending a cumulative extra £75bn on the military over the next six years.

That of course all hinges on winning an election, which I’ll come to soon, but it is a commitment that throws a challenge to Labour and will delight those in his party who have been calling for increased defence spending for months in the face of growing global threats from Russia, China and Iran.

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In Electoral Dysfunction this week, we discuss whether Rishi Sunak, having been battered for much of his premiership, is finally having a week on top?

There is after all a longstanding tradition in this country that when the chips are down, you jump on a plane to try to go somewhere where you’re more appreciated.

And Ruth agrees this week that this has been “one of the better weeks that he’s had in his premiership” and is fully behind his defence spending pledge, while Jess points out that Labour is committed to the “exact same plan for upping defence spending”.

The difference between the two parties is that Rishi Sunak set out in some detail how he plans to get to that point over the course of the next parliament, while Sir Keir Starmer has said only he wants to get to 2.5% “when resources allow”.

And that matters because, as it stands, it’s very likely that it will be Sir Keir who is having to decide whether to increase defence spending levels in the next parliament rather than the incumbent.

Cue an election debate on which leader really cares more about defence and, if Sir Keir really does want go toe-to-toe with Mr Sunak on the 2.5%, how does he pay for it?

That will be a discussion for many other days (Labour’s line on this is that the party will hit the 2.5% “when circumstances allow” rather than setting a firm date) as we head into the general election.

But I had to ask Ruth and Jess, why was he on a publicity blitz announcing it now? Was it something to do with the rather large matter of the local elections?

‘Sunak needs to look big’

At this, both furiously shook their heads and looked at me with a touch of derision. “When it comes to the local elections, I want my bins done, I want my schools to be good, and I want my potholes done. That’s what I care about,” says Ruth.

“The people in Birmingham Yardley speak of nothing else but the 2.5% defence spending,” jokes Jess.

“I see why [he’s doing it this week] but actually I don’t think he’s doing for just another example of doing it this week. He needs to look big in front of his party.”

And there are a couple of things to explore in that.

First, the party management issue of a PM very likely to get completely battered in the local elections throwing his party some red meat ahead of that slaughter to perhaps try to protect himself.

Because the local elections could be bad, very very bad. And that throws up questions about Rishi Sunak’s future and also the date of the next general election.

There is a reason why the prime minister will not be drawn on the timing of the election beyond the “second half of the year”.

While it’s true he doesn’t want to have to “indulge in a guessing game”, as one of his allies put it to me, it’s also true that he can’t rule out a summer election given the unpredictability of next week’s local elections and what could follow.

The Armageddon scenario of losing 500-plus seats, alongside the West Midlands and Teeside mayors, could propel his party into fever pitch panic and possibly trigger a vote of confidence in Rishi Sunak.

Does he then decide to call a general election instead of allowing his party to try to force him out?

‘A man enjoying himself’

For what it’s worth, he did not appear, in any way to me, as a prime minister on that plane over to Berlin from Warsaw, who wanted to give up the job. He seemed, for the first time in a long time, a man enjoying it and getting on with the stuff he wants to get done.

There is also the small matter of being 20 points behind in the polls. I suspect his instinct is very much to hold on in the hope that things begin to turn in his favour.

Because, despite what the critics say, he does seem a man who genuinely believes his Rwanda plan, welfare reforms, defence spending and economic management are all stepping stones on his path to perhaps winning back some support in the country.

“June [or July] is just party management,” says one former cabinet minister. “They are not ready for it and the polling doesn’t work obviously.”

Jess sees the flurry as a “his last ditch attempt” of another reset, and says “the Labour party is not worrying” as the PM tries to pin them on Rwanda or defence spending: “Whatever he goes on is absolutely pilloried within seconds,” she says.

But Ruth argues the defence spending was “actually authentic and a real thing”, and says of the expectations for the local elections that “it’s not just going to be a rout, but an apocalypse, that actually at this point in the cycle it works quite well for Sunak in terms of keeping his job at the back end”.

Observing his various grip and grins this week as I trailed after him meeting the Polish PM, the German chancellor and the NATO secretary general, he is a man that really does want to hold on to that job.

The local elections then are probably going to come as a horrible reality check in just a week’s time as this prime minister, riding high from his European tours, is reminded that his time in office looks like it will be coming to an end – and perhaps even sooner than he might have initially planned.

UK

Traders jailed for interest rate rigging have convictions overturned

Published

3 hours ago

July 23, 2025

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Traders jailed for interest rate rigging have convictions overturned

Two traders jailed for rigging benchmark interest rates have had their convictions overturned by the Supreme Court.

Tom Hayes, 45, was handed a 14-year jail sentence – cut to 11 years on appeal – in 2015, which was one of the toughest ever to be imposed for white-collar crime in UK history.

The former Citigroup and UBS trader, along with Carlo Palombo, 46, who was jailed for four years in 2019 over rigging the Euribor interest rates, took their cases to the country’s highest court after the Court of Appeal dismissed their appeals last year.

The Supreme Court unanimously allowed Mr Hayes’ appeal, overturning his 2015 conviction of eight counts of conspiracy to defraud by manipulating Libor, a now-defunct benchmark interest rate.

Ex-vice president of euro rates at Barclays bank Mr Palombo’s conviction for conspiring with others to submit false or misleading Euribor submissions between 2005 and 2009 was also quashed.

Mr Hayes, who served five and a half years in prison before being released on licence in 2021, described the “incredible feeling” after the ruling.

“My faith in the criminal justice system at times was likely destroyed and it has been restored by the justices from the Supreme Court today and I think it’s only right that more criminal appeals should be heard at this level,” he said.

Both he and Mr Palombo have been described as “scapegoats” for the 2008 financial crisis, but Mr Hayes said: “We literally had nothing to do with it.”

A spokesperson for the Serious Fraud Office (SFO), which opposed the appeals, said it would not be seeking a retrial.

In 2012, the SFO began criminal investigations into traders it suspected of manipulating the Libor and Euribor benchmark interest rates.

Mr Hayes was the first person to be prosecuted by the SFO, which brought prosecutions against 20 people between 2013 and 2019, seven of whom were convicted at trial, two pleaded guilty and 11 were acquitted.

He had also been facing criminal charges in the US but these were dismissed after two other men involved in a similar case had their convictions reversed in 2022.

Mr Hayes, a gifted mathematician who is autistic, was described at his Southwark Crown Court trial as the “ringmaster” at the centre of an enormous fraud to manipulate benchmark interest rates and boost his own six-figure earnings.

He has always maintained that the Libor rates he requested fell within a permissible range and that his conduct was common at the time and condoned by bosses.

Mr Hayes and Mr Palombo argued their convictions depended on a definition of Libor and Euribor which assumes there is an absolute legal bar on a bank’s commercial interests being taken into account when setting rates.

The panel of five Supreme Court justices found there was “ample evidence” for a jury to convict the two men if it had been properly directed.

But in an 82-page judgment, Lord Leggatt said jury direction errors made both convictions unsafe, adding: “That misdirection undermined the fairness of the trial.”

Lawyers representing Mr Hayes and Mr Palombo said the ruling could open the door for the seven others found guilty to have their convictions overturned and that there were grounds for a public inquiry.

UK

Two dead after shooting in Northern Ireland

Published

5 hours ago

July 23, 2025

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Two dead after shooting in Northern Ireland

Two people have died and two are seriously injured after a shooting in County Fermanagh, Northern Ireland.

Police have cordoned off the scene in the village of Maguiresbridge, about 75 miles (120km) southwest of Belfast.

“We can advise there is no ongoing risk to the public,” a Police Service of Northern Ireland spokesperson said.

There was no mention of a motive behind the shooting, but Jemma Dolan, a member of the Northern Ireland Assembly from the area, called it “a domestic incident” in a post on social media.

Emergency services were called to the shooting in the Drummeer Road area of the village at 8.21am on Wednesday, a spokesperson for the Northern Ireland Ambulance Service said.

They confirmed that two people have been injured.

“Following assessment and initial treatment at scene, one patient has been taken to the Royal Victoria Hospital, Belfast, by air ambulance and another to South West Acute Hospital by ambulance,” the spokesperson added.

Drummeer Road is currently closed, police said, warning that this could lead to delays on alternative roads.

Sinn Fein MP Pat Cullen has expressed her deep shock over the shooting, saying: “Firstly, my thoughts are with the victims and their families at this tragic time.

“I am in contact with the police around this ongoing situation. Police are currently at the scene of an incident outside Maguiresbridge and there are a number of road closures while they carry out their investigations.”

The Fermanagh and South Tyrone MP asked people “not to speculate on the details of this tragic and shocking incident”.

DUP MLA Deborah Erskine, who represents the area in the Northern Ireland Assembly, said that the community was “stunned” by the shooting in “a rural, quiet area.”

“Everyone is deeply affected by what has happened this morning,” she said.

Diana Armstrong, MLA for Fermanagh and South Tyrone, called the shooting “heartbreaking and distressing”.

“The loss of life and the serious injuries reported have shocked the local community,” she said in a statement on X.

“My thoughts are with the families of those affected and with everyone in the community as they come to terms with this tragedy.”

UK

Black Sabbath, Elton John and Rod Stewart among music giants paying tribute to Ozzy Osbourne

Published

9 hours ago

July 23, 2025

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Black Sabbath, Elton John and Rod Stewart among music giants paying tribute to Ozzy Osbourne

Black Sabbath have paid tribute to their former frontman Ozzy Osbourne after the megastar died at the age of 76.

Osbourne’s death on Tuesday morning was announced in a statement, which said he died surrounded by his family.

His death came just weeks after he reunited with his Black Sabbath bandmates – Tony Iommi, Terence “Geezer” Butler and Bill Ward – and performed a huge farewell concert for fans.

The band paid tribute to him on Instagram by sharing an image of Osbourne on stage at the farewell gig in Birmingham and writing “Ozzy Forever”.

Ozzy Osbourne’s life in pictures

Iommi, the band’s lead guitarist, said he was in disbelief at the news.

“It’s just such heartbreaking news that I can’t really find the words, there won’t ever be another like him. Geezer, Bill and myself have lost our brother.”

Butler, Black Sabbath’s bassist and primary lyricist, thanked Osbourne for “all those years – we had some great fun”.

He said: “Four kids from Aston – who’d have thought, eh? So glad we got to do it one last time, back in Aston. Love you.”

The original drummer for Black Sabbath, Bill Ward, posted a picture of him and Osbourne on Facebook saying: “Where will I find you now? In the memories, our unspoken embraces, our missed phone calls, no, you’re forever in my heart.”

Sir Elton John described Osbourne as his “dear friend” and a “huge trailblazer” who “secured his place in the pantheon of rock gods”.

“He was also one of the funniest people I’ve ever met,” the singer wrote on Instagram.

Ronnie Wood, of The Rolling Stones, wrote: “I am so very sad to hear of the death of Ozzy Osbourne. What a lovely goodbye concert he had at Back To The Beginning in Birmingham.”

Born John Michael Osbourne on 3 December 1948 in Aston, Birmingham, he became known as the godfather of heavy metal.

The self-styled Prince of Darkness pioneered the music genre with Black Sabbath before going on to have huge success in his own right.

He was famous for hits including Iron Man, Paranoid, War Pigs, Crazy Train and Changes, both with the band and as a solo star.

Legendary American heavy metal band Metallica shared an image of them with Osbourne from 1986 along with an emoji of a broken heart.

Posting on Instagram, Sir Rod Stewart said: “Sleep well, my friend. I’ll see you up there – later rather than sooner.”

Queen guitarist Sir Brian May said he was “grateful I was able to have a few quiet words” with Osbourne after his farewell show at Villa Park three weeks ago.

He said the world will miss the singer’s “unique presence and fearless talent”.

Foo Fighters said in a social media post: “Rock and Roll would not be as loud or as fun” without Osbourne, while Led Zeppelin front man Robert Plant wrote he had “truly changed the planet of rock”.