Rishi Sunak will feel ‘reset week’ was job well done – but a horrible reality check awaits
Call it the Rishi Sunak reset week or, to borrow from The Spectator’s Katy Balls, the shore-up Sunak week – the prime minister will be going into this weekend feeling the past few days have been a job well done.
He has got his flagship Rwanda bill through parliament and is promising a “regular rhythm” of flights will be getting off the ground from July.
He has also got off the ground himself, with a dash to Poland and then Germany, in a show of strength with European allies in the face of Russian aggression.
As the US finally approved a $61bn military aid package for Ukraine, our prime minister announced he’d lift the UK’s defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2030.
That would amount to £87bn a year by the start of the 2030s, with the UK spending a cumulative extra £75bn on the military over the next six years.
That of course all hinges on winning an election, which I’ll come to soon, but it is a commitment that throws a challenge to Labour and will delight those in his party who have been calling for increased defence spending for months in the face of growing global threats from Russia, China and Iran.
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‘Fully funded’ defence plan
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In Electoral Dysfunction this week, we discuss whether Rishi Sunak, having been battered for much of his premiership, is finally having a week on top?
There is after all a longstanding tradition in this country that when the chips are down, you jump on a plane to try to go somewhere where you’re more appreciated.
And Ruth agrees this week that this has been “one of the better weeks that he’s had in his premiership” and is fully behind his defence spending pledge, while Jess points out that Labour is committed to the “exact same plan for upping defence spending”.
The difference between the two parties is that Rishi Sunak set out in some detail how he plans to get to that point over the course of the next parliament, while Sir Keir Starmer has said only he wants to get to 2.5% “when resources allow”.
Keir Starmer only wants to spend 2.5% of GDP on defence ‘when resources allow’. Pic: PA
And that matters because, as it stands, it’s very likely that it will be Sir Keir who is having to decide whether to increase defence spending levels in the next parliament rather than the incumbent.
Cue an election debate on which leader really cares more about defence and, if Sir Keir really does want go toe-to-toe with Mr Sunak on the 2.5%, how does he pay for it?
That will be a discussion for many other days (Labour’s line on this is that the party will hit the 2.5% “when circumstances allow” rather than setting a firm date) as we head into the general election.
But I had to ask Ruth and Jess, why was he on a publicity blitz announcing it now? Was it something to do with the rather large matter of the local elections?
‘Sunak needs to look big’
At this, both furiously shook their heads and looked at me with a touch of derision. “When it comes to the local elections, I want my bins done, I want my schools to be good, and I want my potholes done. That’s what I care about,” says Ruth.
“The people in Birmingham Yardley speak of nothing else but the 2.5% defence spending,” jokes Jess.
“I see why [he’s doing it this week] but actually I don’t think he’s doing for just another example of doing it this week. He needs to look big in front of his party.”
And there are a couple of things to explore in that.
First, the party management issue of a PM very likely to get completely battered in the local elections throwing his party some red meat ahead of that slaughter to perhaps try to protect himself.
Mr Sunak met German Chancellor Olaf Scholz this week
Because the local elections could be bad, very very bad. And that throws up questions about Rishi Sunak’s future and also the date of the next general election.
There is a reason why the prime minister will not be drawn on the timing of the election beyond the “second half of the year”.
While it’s true he doesn’t want to have to “indulge in a guessing game”, as one of his allies put it to me, it’s also true that he can’t rule out a summer election given the unpredictability of next week’s local elections and what could follow.
The Armageddon scenario of losing 500-plus seats, alongside the West Midlands and Teeside mayors, could propel his party into fever pitch panic and possibly trigger a vote of confidence in Rishi Sunak.
Does he then decide to call a general election instead of allowing his party to try to force him out?
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‘A man enjoying himself’
For what it’s worth, he did not appear, in any way to me, as a prime minister on that plane over to Berlin from Warsaw, who wanted to give up the job. He seemed, for the first time in a long time, a man enjoying it and getting on with the stuff he wants to get done.
There is also the small matter of being 20 points behind in the polls. I suspect his instinct is very much to hold on in the hope that things begin to turn in his favour.
Because, despite what the critics say, he does seem a man who genuinely believes his Rwanda plan, welfare reforms, defence spending and economic management are all stepping stones on his path to perhaps winning back some support in the country.
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“June [or July] is just party management,” says one former cabinet minister. “They are not ready for it and the polling doesn’t work obviously.”
Jess sees the flurry as a “his last ditch attempt” of another reset, and says “the Labour party is not worrying” as the PM tries to pin them on Rwanda or defence spending: “Whatever he goes on is absolutely pilloried within seconds,” she says.
But Ruth argues the defence spending was “actually authentic and a real thing”, and says of the expectations for the local elections that “it’s not just going to be a rout, but an apocalypse, that actually at this point in the cycle it works quite well for Sunak in terms of keeping his job at the back end”.
Observing his various grip and grins this week as I trailed after him meeting the Polish PM, the German chancellor and the NATO secretary general, he is a man that really does want to hold on to that job.
The local elections then are probably going to come as a horrible reality check in just a week’s time as this prime minister, riding high from his European tours, is reminded that his time in office looks like it will be coming to an end – and perhaps even sooner than he might have initially planned.
The King and other members of the Royal Family have said they are “deeply saddened” after a number of people were struck by a car during Liverpool FC’s title parade.
The monarch said he and the Queen were “deeply shocked and saddened” by Monday’s incident in the city.
The head of state, who is currently on a two-day visit in Canada with his wife, said: “It is truly devastating to see that what should have been a joyous celebration for so many could end in such distressing circumstances.
“At this heartbreaking time for the people of Liverpool, I know that the strength of community spirit for which your city is renowned will be a comfort and support to those in need.”
Liverpool parade latest: ‘All you heard was screaming,’ witness says
Police and other emergency personnel at the scene of the incident in Liverpool. Pic: AP
The Prince and Princess of Wales have also issued a statement, saying they were “deeply saddened” by what happened in Liverpool.
William, who is patron of the Football Association, and his wife Kate said in a message shared by Kensington Palace on social media: “What should have been a joyful celebration ended with tragedy.
“Our thoughts are with those who were injured and to the first responders and emergency services on the ground.”
Meanwhile, the Princess Royal visited the Royal Liverpool University Hospital on Tuesday, where she met medical staff who treated some of the 47 people injured when a vehicle hit fans attending the parade.
The Princess Royal thanked hospital staff. Pic: PA
Divisional medical director for surgery at Aintree University Hospital, Marc Lucky, told Princess Anne that medics were “very, very fortunate” that there were not more major injuries.
Consultant Jay Rathore added: “Most of the injuries were limb injuries. No life-threatening, we were able to manage them.”
The princess was already due to be in Liverpool on Tuesday to visit the MS Queen Anne after it arrived on Monday for Cunard’s 185th anniversary celebrations.
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The King and Queen are currently on a trip to Canada. Pic: PA
She expanded her itinerary to also meet nurses, consultants, and paramedics, as well as representatives from Merseyside Fire and Rescue Service and the football club, in light of Monday night’s incident.
“We really appreciate you still coming, because it will mean a lot to the people of the city,” Liverpool City Council leader Liam Robinson said as he thanked the princess for her visit.
A Buckingham Palace spokesman said: “The princess would like to share her heartfelt condolences and support for the families and communities affected.
“Her Royal Highness also wishes to acknowledge the courage of the emergency services, some of whom she met today, and all those providing care and comfort during this difficult time.”
King Charles says Canada will remain “strong and free” – in a speech viewed by many Canadians as a show of support for the country’s sovereignty following annexation threats by Donald Trump.
It comes after Mr Trump repeatedly suggested that Canada should become America’s 51st state.
Prime Minister Mark Carney later invited Charles, who is the head of state in Canada, to the state opening of parliament.
On Tuesday, Charles said in a speech, written by Mr Carney’s government to open Canada’s parliament, that the country would remain “strong and free”, quoting the national anthem, but did not directly refer to Mr Trump’s annexation threats.
“We must face reality: since the Second World War, our world has never been more dangerous and unstable. Canada is facing challenges that, in our lifetimes, are unprecedented,” the King told politicians in the Senate Building in Ottawa in French.
“Many Canadians are feeling anxious and worried about the drastically changing world around them,” he added.
Mark Carney applauded the King. Pic: PA
King Charles spoke with former Canadian PM Justin Trudeau. Pic: PA
In the speech, he highlighted his admiration for “Canada’s unique identity, which is recognised across the world for bravery and sacrifice in defence of national values”.
He set out the government’s legislative agenda on the second day of his Canada visit, an honour usually reserved for the governor general.
King Charles is only the second monarch, after his mother Queen Elizabeth II, to do so. The late queen delivered the speech at the state opening of the Canadian parliament in 1957, her first visit to the country as head of state, and again in 1977.
King Charles and Queen Camilla were riding in a horse-drawn landau. Pic: Reuters
King Charles III and Queen Camilla are pictured ahead of the opening of parliament. Pic: PA
Charles and Camilla laid a wreath at the national war memorial in Ottawa. Pic: PA
He said that it has been nearly 70 years since his mother first opened the Canadian parliament, and at the time, World War II remained a painful memory while the Cold War was intensifying simultaneously.
“Freedom and democracy were under threat,” the King said.
“Today, Canada faces another critical moment. Democracy, pluralism, the rule of law, self-determination, and freedom are values which Canadians hold dear, and ones which the government is determined to protect.”
He added that since Queen Elizabeth II’s first Canadian parliament opening, the country “has dramatically changed: repatriating its constitution, achieving full independence, and witnessing immense growth”.
Addressing the protection of Canada’s sovereignty, Charles read out a promise by the Canadian government that it would rebuild, rearm and reinvest in its armed forces.
“It will invest to strengthen its presence in the north, as this region, which is an integral part of the Canadian nation, faces new threats,” he read.
King Charles and Queen Camilla were led by procession to open the first session of parliament in Canada
Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) officers on horseback rode towards the senate building. Pic: Reuters
King Charles and Queen Camilla visited the Senate. Pic: Reuters
The speech, which was awarded a standing ovation by attendees, was largely written by officials working for Mr Carney’s government, with Charles adding his own comments about his love for Canada.
The King opening Canada’s parliament is a “clear message of sovereignty” and “not coincidental”, Mr Carney previously said.
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King Charles and Mark Carney during the event
He also revealed that Canadians “weren’t impressed” by the decision of the UK government to offer Mr Trump an unprecedented second state visit to the UK.
Mr Carney said the invitation Sir Keir Starmer handed to the US president earlier this year “cut across clear messages” that the Canadian government was trying to send to the White House in response to their threats against Canada’s sovereignty, including Mr Trump’s idea for it to be America’s 51st state.
Peter Mandelson, the UK ambassador to the United States, has told Sky News he “regrets” his association with paedophile Jeffrey Epstein.
Lord Mandelson‘s links to the late billionaire were exposed in a 2019 report by JP Morgan bank, filed in a New York court.
Epstein killed himself in August of that year while awaiting trial on charges of sex trafficking minors.
He had previously served an 18-month sentence after pleading guilty to procuring a person under the age of 18 for prostitution.
Whilst serving that sentence, the JP Morgan report suggests that Mr Mandelson stayed at Epstein’s Manhattan flat.
Epstein wrote to his private banker on 17 June 2009: “Peter will be staying at 71st over weekend…”
At the time, Lord Mandelson was the Business Secretary in the UK government under then-Prime Minister Gordon Brown. He was appointed UK ambassador to the United States in December 2024.
Jeffrey Epstein. File pic: New York State Sex Offender Registry via AP
Sky News asked him if he did, indeed, stay at Epstein’s flat while the disgraced financier was in jail.
He replied: “I’m not answering any questions about him. My knowledge of him is something I regret, I wish I’d never met him in the first place.”
Asked why he had an association with Epstein whilst he was in jail, Lord Mandelson replied: “Why did many people meet him? He was a prolific networker. And I wish I’d never met him in the first place.”
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As US ambassador, Lord Mandelson represents Britain’s interests in Washington and has vowed to treat Donald Trump‘s administration with “respect, seriousness and understanding of where they are coming from politically”.
This comes after Lord Mandelson described the US president as a “danger to the world”, for which he apologised earlier this year.
He told the Alain Elkann Interviews podcast in 2019: “What Donald Trump represents and believes is an anathema to mainstream British opinion.”
US President Donald Trump, vice president JD Vance, and UK ambassador to the US Peter Mandelson. Pic: AP
Mr Mandelson added: “Even those who have a sneaking admiration for Donald Trump because of his personality, nonetheless regard him as reckless, and a danger to the world.”
But in January this year, Lord Mandelson said he now considered his remarks “as ill-judged and wrong”.
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