Rishi Sunak will feel ‘reset week’ was job well done – but a horrible reality check awaits
Call it the Rishi Sunak reset week or, to borrow from The Spectator’s Katy Balls, the shore-up Sunak week – the prime minister will be going into this weekend feeling the past few days have been a job well done.
He has got his flagship Rwanda bill through parliament and is promising a “regular rhythm” of flights will be getting off the ground from July.
He has also got off the ground himself, with a dash to Poland and then Germany, in a show of strength with European allies in the face of Russian aggression.
As the US finally approved a $61bn military aid package for Ukraine, our prime minister announced he’d lift the UK’s defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2030.
That would amount to £87bn a year by the start of the 2030s, with the UK spending a cumulative extra £75bn on the military over the next six years.
That of course all hinges on winning an election, which I’ll come to soon, but it is a commitment that throws a challenge to Labour and will delight those in his party who have been calling for increased defence spending for months in the face of growing global threats from Russia, China and Iran.
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‘Fully funded’ defence plan
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In Electoral Dysfunction this week, we discuss whether Rishi Sunak, having been battered for much of his premiership, is finally having a week on top?
There is after all a longstanding tradition in this country that when the chips are down, you jump on a plane to try to go somewhere where you’re more appreciated.
And Ruth agrees this week that this has been “one of the better weeks that he’s had in his premiership” and is fully behind his defence spending pledge, while Jess points out that Labour is committed to the “exact same plan for upping defence spending”.
The difference between the two parties is that Rishi Sunak set out in some detail how he plans to get to that point over the course of the next parliament, while Sir Keir Starmer has said only he wants to get to 2.5% “when resources allow”.
Keir Starmer only wants to spend 2.5% of GDP on defence ‘when resources allow’. Pic: PA
And that matters because, as it stands, it’s very likely that it will be Sir Keir who is having to decide whether to increase defence spending levels in the next parliament rather than the incumbent.
Cue an election debate on which leader really cares more about defence and, if Sir Keir really does want go toe-to-toe with Mr Sunak on the 2.5%, how does he pay for it?
That will be a discussion for many other days (Labour’s line on this is that the party will hit the 2.5% “when circumstances allow” rather than setting a firm date) as we head into the general election.
But I had to ask Ruth and Jess, why was he on a publicity blitz announcing it now? Was it something to do with the rather large matter of the local elections?
‘Sunak needs to look big’
At this, both furiously shook their heads and looked at me with a touch of derision. “When it comes to the local elections, I want my bins done, I want my schools to be good, and I want my potholes done. That’s what I care about,” says Ruth.
“The people in Birmingham Yardley speak of nothing else but the 2.5% defence spending,” jokes Jess.
“I see why [he’s doing it this week] but actually I don’t think he’s doing for just another example of doing it this week. He needs to look big in front of his party.”
And there are a couple of things to explore in that.
First, the party management issue of a PM very likely to get completely battered in the local elections throwing his party some red meat ahead of that slaughter to perhaps try to protect himself.
Mr Sunak met German Chancellor Olaf Scholz this week
Because the local elections could be bad, very very bad. And that throws up questions about Rishi Sunak’s future and also the date of the next general election.
There is a reason why the prime minister will not be drawn on the timing of the election beyond the “second half of the year”.
While it’s true he doesn’t want to have to “indulge in a guessing game”, as one of his allies put it to me, it’s also true that he can’t rule out a summer election given the unpredictability of next week’s local elections and what could follow.
The Armageddon scenario of losing 500-plus seats, alongside the West Midlands and Teeside mayors, could propel his party into fever pitch panic and possibly trigger a vote of confidence in Rishi Sunak.
Does he then decide to call a general election instead of allowing his party to try to force him out?
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‘A man enjoying himself’
For what it’s worth, he did not appear, in any way to me, as a prime minister on that plane over to Berlin from Warsaw, who wanted to give up the job. He seemed, for the first time in a long time, a man enjoying it and getting on with the stuff he wants to get done.
There is also the small matter of being 20 points behind in the polls. I suspect his instinct is very much to hold on in the hope that things begin to turn in his favour.
Because, despite what the critics say, he does seem a man who genuinely believes his Rwanda plan, welfare reforms, defence spending and economic management are all stepping stones on his path to perhaps winning back some support in the country.
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“June [or July] is just party management,” says one former cabinet minister. “They are not ready for it and the polling doesn’t work obviously.”
Jess sees the flurry as a “his last ditch attempt” of another reset, and says “the Labour party is not worrying” as the PM tries to pin them on Rwanda or defence spending: “Whatever he goes on is absolutely pilloried within seconds,” she says.
But Ruth argues the defence spending was “actually authentic and a real thing”, and says of the expectations for the local elections that “it’s not just going to be a rout, but an apocalypse, that actually at this point in the cycle it works quite well for Sunak in terms of keeping his job at the back end”.
Observing his various grip and grins this week as I trailed after him meeting the Polish PM, the German chancellor and the NATO secretary general, he is a man that really does want to hold on to that job.
The local elections then are probably going to come as a horrible reality check in just a week’s time as this prime minister, riding high from his European tours, is reminded that his time in office looks like it will be coming to an end – and perhaps even sooner than he might have initially planned.
The Blockchain Association, Crypto Council for Innovation and fintech allies urged the CFPB to finalize an open banking rule ensuring consumers, not banks, control their data.
The UK is ready to spend “well over” £100m on a possible deployment of British forces to Ukraine if Donald Trump secures a peace deal with Russia, the defence secretary has said.
John Healey also said Vladimir Putin views Britain as his “number one enemy” because of the country’s support for Ukraine.
The defence secretary’s plan includes the preparation of military personnel to join a multinational force that would be sent to help secure Ukraine’s borders if the US president brokers a ceasefire between Moscow and Kyiv.
He signalled British troops could be ready to deploy as soon as that happened and he said this could include soldiers on the ground.
Some of the anticipated money to prepare for any mission is already being spent.
The defence secretary also warned of a “new era of threat” and said the risk of wider conflict in Europe has not been as great since the end of the Second World War.
Mr Healey used a lecture at Mansion House in London to talk about efforts led by the UK and France to build a “coalition of the willing” of more than 30 nations to form what he called a “Multinational Force Ukraine” over the past six months.
At Mansion House this evening. Pic: PA
This force would help to secure Ukraine’s skies and seas and train its troops if Russia agrees to halt its full-scale war.
“So, as President Trump leads the push for peace here in Europe, we are ready to lead the work to secure it in the long-term,” the defence secretary said.
“For our Armed Forces, I am already reviewing readiness levels and accelerating millions of pounds of funding to prepare for any possible deployment into Ukraine.”
Asked how much money, he said it would be “well over” £100m.
British troops have been instrumental in the training of Ukrainian soliders throughout the conflict at camps like this one in East Anglia.Pic: PA
Mr Healey trumpeted the UK’s support for Ukraine, including a record £4.5bn in assistance this year, and taking over from the United States in co-chairing a wider group of nations that have been sending weapons and money to Kyiv.
“This is why President [Volodymyr] Zelenskyy calls the UK his closest ally,” he said.
“This is why Putin ranks Britain as his number one enemy.”
But he warned that as Russia’s aggression grew in Ukraine and beyond its borders, “Britain and our NATO allies stand more unified, and stronger”.
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Vladimir Putin. Pic: Sputnik/Reuters
Giving a stark verdict of the security landscape, Mr Healey said: “This is – undeniably – a new era of threat. The world is more unstable, more uncertain, more dangerous. Not since the end of the Second World War has Europe’s security been at such risk of state-on-state conflict.”
He said this required what he described as “a new era for defence”.
He said: “This is now an age for hard power, strong alliances and sure diplomacy.”
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The defence secretary said plans for the new era would include increasing defence spending to 5% of GDP by 2035 – though critics have accused the UK and other European allies of playing smoke and mirrors with the target, questioning how much will really be spent on weapons and troops.
“As I look ahead to the rest of this decade, our task, in this new age of hard power is to secure peace in our continent and to forge stronger deterrence and resilience, a New Deal for European security,” said Mr Healey.
Turning to the Middle East, he also announced the UK was sending a two-star military officer to work as the deputy to the US commander, charged with monitoring the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas.
Politics
Govt to allow early release of thousands of rapists and violent criminals, Tories claim in sentencing row
The government will allow thousands of rapists, child sex offenders and other violent criminals to be released early from prison, the Conservatives claimed as a row over sentencing law reforms erupted.
Ahead of MPs debating the Sentencing Bill, introduced to tackle the growing prison population, on Tuesday, the Tories accused Labour of favouring criminals over victims and said the government’s approach is a “betrayal of victims”.
But Labour accused the Conservative Party of “rank hypocrisy” over prison overcrowding and the previous government’s early release policies.
The bill will restrict the use of short sentences and instead strengthen community punishments.
It will also include an “earned progression scheme”, which allows convicts who demonstrate good behaviour to be freed earlier, with enhanced supervision in the community followed by an unsupervised period on licence.
There will be a minimum release point of 33% for standard determinate sentences and a 50% minimum for more serious standard determinate sentences – as well as more tagging to monitor offenders in the community.
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The Tories claim the bill as it is would mean 85% (6,500) of the most serious jailed offenders could qualify for early release because they are serving standard sentences, while more than 83% of child sex offenders and 62% of convicted rapists would serve reduced sentences.
They have tabled an amendment to the bill to ensure a carve out for the most serious crimes, so those who commit assault by penetration, rape, grievous bodily harm, stalking and sexual offences against children cannot be released early.
Under Labour plans to abolish custodial sentences below 12 months, the Tories calculated up to 43,000 offenders could avoid jail altogether.
They said the bill could lead to permanent leniency in sentencing.
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Conservative shadow justice minister Dr Kieran Mullan said: “Labour’s early release plan is a betrayal of victims and a gift to rapists and paedophiles. Keir Starmer is putting criminals before communities and letting predators out early.
“Under Labour’s plans, thousands of the most serious and sickening offences imaginable would no longer be treated as such. What an insult to thousands of victims across the country.
“Anyone who vote for these plans will have to explain exactly why these crimes do not count among the most serious offences.
“The Conservatives will fight this moral rot every step of the way.”
Justice Secretary David Lammy at Belmarsh prison. Pic: PA
But sentencing minister Jake Richards accused the Tories of “rank hypocrisy” as he said the previous government took prisons to “breaking point”.
He said Labour are “cleaning up the mess” left by the Tories and accused them of “feigned outrage”.
“The Conservatives’ rank hypocrisy is shameful. They built this crisis, then feigned outrage when the consequences arrived,” he added.
“They took our prisons to breaking point, released thousands of serious offenders early and pushed Britain to the brink of a situation where police could no longer make arrests and courts could no longer prosecute.
“That would have been a total collapse of law and order.
“Now they attack us for cleaning up the mess they made. They are behaving like arsonists complaining the fire service couldn’t stop the flame.
“This Labour government believes in prison and in punishment that cuts crime.
“We’re delivering the biggest prison expansion since the Victorians, reforming sentencing to keep the public safe and building a justice system worthy of the name.”
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