Rishi Sunak will feel ‘reset week’ was job well done – but a horrible reality check awaits
Call it the Rishi Sunak reset week or, to borrow from The Spectator’s Katy Balls, the shore-up Sunak week – the prime minister will be going into this weekend feeling the past few days have been a job well done.
He has got his flagship Rwanda bill through parliament and is promising a “regular rhythm” of flights will be getting off the ground from July.
He has also got off the ground himself, with a dash to Poland and then Germany, in a show of strength with European allies in the face of Russian aggression.
As the US finally approved a $61bn military aid package for Ukraine, our prime minister announced he’d lift the UK’s defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2030.
That would amount to £87bn a year by the start of the 2030s, with the UK spending a cumulative extra £75bn on the military over the next six years.
That of course all hinges on winning an election, which I’ll come to soon, but it is a commitment that throws a challenge to Labour and will delight those in his party who have been calling for increased defence spending for months in the face of growing global threats from Russia, China and Iran.
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‘Fully funded’ defence plan
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In Electoral Dysfunction this week, we discuss whether Rishi Sunak, having been battered for much of his premiership, is finally having a week on top?
There is after all a longstanding tradition in this country that when the chips are down, you jump on a plane to try to go somewhere where you’re more appreciated.
And Ruth agrees this week that this has been “one of the better weeks that he’s had in his premiership” and is fully behind his defence spending pledge, while Jess points out that Labour is committed to the “exact same plan for upping defence spending”.
The difference between the two parties is that Rishi Sunak set out in some detail how he plans to get to that point over the course of the next parliament, while Sir Keir Starmer has said only he wants to get to 2.5% “when resources allow”.
Keir Starmer only wants to spend 2.5% of GDP on defence ‘when resources allow’. Pic: PA
And that matters because, as it stands, it’s very likely that it will be Sir Keir who is having to decide whether to increase defence spending levels in the next parliament rather than the incumbent.
Cue an election debate on which leader really cares more about defence and, if Sir Keir really does want go toe-to-toe with Mr Sunak on the 2.5%, how does he pay for it?
That will be a discussion for many other days (Labour’s line on this is that the party will hit the 2.5% “when circumstances allow” rather than setting a firm date) as we head into the general election.
But I had to ask Ruth and Jess, why was he on a publicity blitz announcing it now? Was it something to do with the rather large matter of the local elections?
‘Sunak needs to look big’
At this, both furiously shook their heads and looked at me with a touch of derision. “When it comes to the local elections, I want my bins done, I want my schools to be good, and I want my potholes done. That’s what I care about,” says Ruth.
“The people in Birmingham Yardley speak of nothing else but the 2.5% defence spending,” jokes Jess.
“I see why [he’s doing it this week] but actually I don’t think he’s doing for just another example of doing it this week. He needs to look big in front of his party.”
And there are a couple of things to explore in that.
First, the party management issue of a PM very likely to get completely battered in the local elections throwing his party some red meat ahead of that slaughter to perhaps try to protect himself.
Mr Sunak met German Chancellor Olaf Scholz this week
Because the local elections could be bad, very very bad. And that throws up questions about Rishi Sunak’s future and also the date of the next general election.
There is a reason why the prime minister will not be drawn on the timing of the election beyond the “second half of the year”.
While it’s true he doesn’t want to have to “indulge in a guessing game”, as one of his allies put it to me, it’s also true that he can’t rule out a summer election given the unpredictability of next week’s local elections and what could follow.
The Armageddon scenario of losing 500-plus seats, alongside the West Midlands and Teeside mayors, could propel his party into fever pitch panic and possibly trigger a vote of confidence in Rishi Sunak.
Does he then decide to call a general election instead of allowing his party to try to force him out?
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‘A man enjoying himself’
For what it’s worth, he did not appear, in any way to me, as a prime minister on that plane over to Berlin from Warsaw, who wanted to give up the job. He seemed, for the first time in a long time, a man enjoying it and getting on with the stuff he wants to get done.
There is also the small matter of being 20 points behind in the polls. I suspect his instinct is very much to hold on in the hope that things begin to turn in his favour.
Because, despite what the critics say, he does seem a man who genuinely believes his Rwanda plan, welfare reforms, defence spending and economic management are all stepping stones on his path to perhaps winning back some support in the country.
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“June [or July] is just party management,” says one former cabinet minister. “They are not ready for it and the polling doesn’t work obviously.”
Jess sees the flurry as a “his last ditch attempt” of another reset, and says “the Labour party is not worrying” as the PM tries to pin them on Rwanda or defence spending: “Whatever he goes on is absolutely pilloried within seconds,” she says.
But Ruth argues the defence spending was “actually authentic and a real thing”, and says of the expectations for the local elections that “it’s not just going to be a rout, but an apocalypse, that actually at this point in the cycle it works quite well for Sunak in terms of keeping his job at the back end”.
Observing his various grip and grins this week as I trailed after him meeting the Polish PM, the German chancellor and the NATO secretary general, he is a man that really does want to hold on to that job.
The local elections then are probably going to come as a horrible reality check in just a week’s time as this prime minister, riding high from his European tours, is reminded that his time in office looks like it will be coming to an end – and perhaps even sooner than he might have initially planned.
All 14 children arrested on suspicion of manslaughter after a boy died in a fire have been released on police bail, officers said.
Layton Carr, 14, was found dead near the site of a fire at Fairfield industrial park in the Bill Quay area of Gateshead on Friday.
Northumbria Police said on Saturday that they had arrested 11 boys and three girls in connection with the incident.
In an update on Sunday, a Northumbria Police spokesman said: “All those arrested have since been released on police bail pending further inquiries.”
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Teenager dies in industrial estate fire
Firefighters raced to the industrial site shortly after 8pm on Friday, putting out the blaze a short time later.
Police then issued an appeal for Carr, who was believed to be in the area at that time.
In a statement on Saturday, the force said that “sadly, following searches, a body believed to be that of 14-year-old Layton Carr was located deceased inside the building”.
David Thompson, headteacher of Hebburn Comprehensive School, where Layton was a pupil, said the school community was “heartbroken”.
Mr Thompson described him as a “valued and much-loved member of Year 9” and said he would be “greatly missed by everyone”.
He added that the school’s “sincere condolences” were with Layton’s family and that the community would “rally together to support one another through this tragedy”.
A fundraising page on GoFundMe has been set up to help Layton’s mother pay for funeral costs.
Pic: Gofundme
Organiser Stephanie Simpson said: “The last thing Georgia needs to stress trying to pay for a funeral for her Boy Any donations will help thank you.”
One tribute in a Facebook post read: “Can’t believe I’m writing this my nephew RIP Layton 💔 forever 14 you’ll be a massive miss, thinking of my sister and 2 beautiful nieces right now.”
Detective Chief Inspector Louise Jenkins, of Northumbria Police, also said: “This is an extremely tragic incident where a boy has sadly lost his life.”
She added that the force’s “thoughts are with Layton’s family as they begin to attempt to process the loss of their loved one”.
They are working to establish “the full circumstances surrounding the incident” and officers will be in the area to “offer reassurance to the public”, she added.
A cordon remains in place at the site while police carry out enquiries.
Football bodies could be forced to pay towards the care costs of ex-players who have been diagnosed with brain conditions, under proposals set to be considered by MPs.
Campaigners are drafting amendments to the Football Governance Bill, which would treat conditions caused by heading balls as an “industrial injuries issue”.
The proposals seek to require the football industry to provide the necessary financial support.
Campaigners say existing support is not fit for purpose, including the Brain Health Fund which was set up with an initial £1m by the Professional Footballers’ Association (PFA), supported by the Premier League.
But the Premier League said the fund has supported 121 families with at-home adaptations and care home fees.
From England‘s 1966 World Cup-winning team, both Jack and Bobby Charlton died with dementia, as did Martin Peters, Ray Wilson and Nobby Stiles.
Neil Ruddock speaks to Sky’s Rob Harris outside parliament
Ex-players, including former Liverpool defender Neil Ruddock, went to parliament last week to lobby MPs.
Ruddock told Sky News he had joined campaigners “for the families who’ve gone through hell”.
“A professional footballer, greatest job in the world, but no one knew the dangers, and that’s scary,” he said.
“Every time someone heads a ball it’s got to be dangerous to you. You know, I used to head 100 balls a day in training. I didn’t realise that might affect my future.”
A study co-funded by the PFA and the Football Association (FA) in 2019 found footballers were three and a half times more likely to die of a neurodegenerative disease than members of the public of the same age.
‘In denial’
Among those calling on football authorities to contribute towards the care costs of ex-players who have gone on to develop conditions such as Alzheimer’s and dementia is Labour MP Chris Evans.
Mr Evans, who represents Caerphilly in South Wales, hopes to amend the Bill to establish a care and financial support scheme for ex-footballers and told a recent event in parliament that affected ex-players “deserve to be compensated”.
Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham, who helped to draft the amendment, said the game was “in denial about the whole thing”.
Mr Burnham called for it to be seen as “an industrial injuries issue in the same way with mining”.
In January, David Beckham lent his support to calls for greater support for footballers affected by dementia.
One of the amendments says that “the industry rather than the public should bear the financial burden”.
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A spokesperson for the FA said it was taking a “leading role in reviewing and improving the safety of our game” and that it had “already taken many proactive steps to review and address potential risk factors”.
An English Football League spokesperson said it was “working closely with other football bodies” to ensure both professional and grassroots football are “as safe as it can be”.
The PFA and Premier League declined to comment.
UK
Terror arrests came in context of raised warnings about Iran, with ongoing chaos in its own backyard
These are two separate and unrelated investigations by counter-terror officers.
But the common thread is nationality – seven out of the eight people arrested are Iranian.
And that comes in the context of increased warnings from government and the security services about Iranian activity on British soil.
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Counter terror officers raid property
Last year, the director general of MI5, Ken McCallum, said his organisation and police had responded to 20 Iran-backed plots presenting potentially lethal threats to British citizens and UK residents since January 2022.
He linked that increase to the ongoing situation in Iran’s own backyard.
“As events unfold in the Middle East, we will give our fullest attention to the risk of an increase in – or a broadening of – Iranian state aggression in the UK,” he said.
The implication is that even as Iran grapples with a rapidly changing situation in its own region, having seen its proxies, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza, decimated and itself coming under Israeli attack, it may seek avenues further abroad.
The government reiterated this warning only a few weeks ago, with security minister Dan Jarvis addressing parliament.
“The threat from Iran sits in a wider context of the growing, diversifying and evolving threat that the UK faces from malign activity by a number of states,” Jarvis said.
“The threat from states has become increasingly interconnected in nature, blurring the lines between: domestic and international; online and offline; and states and their proxies.
“Turning specifically to Iran, the regime has become increasingly emboldened, asserting itself more aggressively to advance their objectives and undermine ours.”
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As part of that address, Jarvis highlighted the National Security Act 2023, which “criminalises assisting a foreign intelligence service”, among other things.
So it was notable that this was the act used in one of this weekend’s investigations.
The suspects were detained under section 27 of the same act, which allows police to arrest those suspected of being “involved in foreign power threat activity”.
Those powers are apparently being put to use.
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