Rishi Sunak will feel ‘reset week’ was job well done – but a horrible reality check awaits
Call it the Rishi Sunak reset week or, to borrow from The Spectator’s Katy Balls, the shore-up Sunak week – the prime minister will be going into this weekend feeling the past few days have been a job well done.
He has got his flagship Rwanda bill through parliament and is promising a “regular rhythm” of flights will be getting off the ground from July.
He has also got off the ground himself, with a dash to Poland and then Germany, in a show of strength with European allies in the face of Russian aggression.
As the US finally approved a $61bn military aid package for Ukraine, our prime minister announced he’d lift the UK’s defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2030.
That would amount to £87bn a year by the start of the 2030s, with the UK spending a cumulative extra £75bn on the military over the next six years.
That of course all hinges on winning an election, which I’ll come to soon, but it is a commitment that throws a challenge to Labour and will delight those in his party who have been calling for increased defence spending for months in the face of growing global threats from Russia, China and Iran.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
‘Fully funded’ defence plan
? Listen above then tap here to follow Electoral Dysfunction wherever you get your podcasts ?
In Electoral Dysfunction this week, we discuss whether Rishi Sunak, having been battered for much of his premiership, is finally having a week on top?
There is after all a longstanding tradition in this country that when the chips are down, you jump on a plane to try to go somewhere where you’re more appreciated.
And Ruth agrees this week that this has been “one of the better weeks that he’s had in his premiership” and is fully behind his defence spending pledge, while Jess points out that Labour is committed to the “exact same plan for upping defence spending”.
The difference between the two parties is that Rishi Sunak set out in some detail how he plans to get to that point over the course of the next parliament, while Sir Keir Starmer has said only he wants to get to 2.5% “when resources allow”.
Keir Starmer only wants to spend 2.5% of GDP on defence ‘when resources allow’. Pic: PA
And that matters because, as it stands, it’s very likely that it will be Sir Keir who is having to decide whether to increase defence spending levels in the next parliament rather than the incumbent.
Cue an election debate on which leader really cares more about defence and, if Sir Keir really does want go toe-to-toe with Mr Sunak on the 2.5%, how does he pay for it?
That will be a discussion for many other days (Labour’s line on this is that the party will hit the 2.5% “when circumstances allow” rather than setting a firm date) as we head into the general election.
But I had to ask Ruth and Jess, why was he on a publicity blitz announcing it now? Was it something to do with the rather large matter of the local elections?
‘Sunak needs to look big’
At this, both furiously shook their heads and looked at me with a touch of derision. “When it comes to the local elections, I want my bins done, I want my schools to be good, and I want my potholes done. That’s what I care about,” says Ruth.
“The people in Birmingham Yardley speak of nothing else but the 2.5% defence spending,” jokes Jess.
“I see why [he’s doing it this week] but actually I don’t think he’s doing for just another example of doing it this week. He needs to look big in front of his party.”
And there are a couple of things to explore in that.
First, the party management issue of a PM very likely to get completely battered in the local elections throwing his party some red meat ahead of that slaughter to perhaps try to protect himself.
Mr Sunak met German Chancellor Olaf Scholz this week
Because the local elections could be bad, very very bad. And that throws up questions about Rishi Sunak’s future and also the date of the next general election.
There is a reason why the prime minister will not be drawn on the timing of the election beyond the “second half of the year”.
While it’s true he doesn’t want to have to “indulge in a guessing game”, as one of his allies put it to me, it’s also true that he can’t rule out a summer election given the unpredictability of next week’s local elections and what could follow.
The Armageddon scenario of losing 500-plus seats, alongside the West Midlands and Teeside mayors, could propel his party into fever pitch panic and possibly trigger a vote of confidence in Rishi Sunak.
Does he then decide to call a general election instead of allowing his party to try to force him out?
Read more from Sky News:
A crisis of trust in our politics spells trouble for the government
Future of Scottish FM Humza Yousaf hangs in balance
Listen to Beth Rigby, Jess Phillips and Ruth Davidson as they unravel the spin in a new weekly podcast from Sky News
‘A man enjoying himself’
For what it’s worth, he did not appear, in any way to me, as a prime minister on that plane over to Berlin from Warsaw, who wanted to give up the job. He seemed, for the first time in a long time, a man enjoying it and getting on with the stuff he wants to get done.
There is also the small matter of being 20 points behind in the polls. I suspect his instinct is very much to hold on in the hope that things begin to turn in his favour.
Because, despite what the critics say, he does seem a man who genuinely believes his Rwanda plan, welfare reforms, defence spending and economic management are all stepping stones on his path to perhaps winning back some support in the country.
Keep up with all the latest news from the UK and around the world by following Sky News
“June [or July] is just party management,” says one former cabinet minister. “They are not ready for it and the polling doesn’t work obviously.”
Jess sees the flurry as a “his last ditch attempt” of another reset, and says “the Labour party is not worrying” as the PM tries to pin them on Rwanda or defence spending: “Whatever he goes on is absolutely pilloried within seconds,” she says.
But Ruth argues the defence spending was “actually authentic and a real thing”, and says of the expectations for the local elections that “it’s not just going to be a rout, but an apocalypse, that actually at this point in the cycle it works quite well for Sunak in terms of keeping his job at the back end”.
Observing his various grip and grins this week as I trailed after him meeting the Polish PM, the German chancellor and the NATO secretary general, he is a man that really does want to hold on to that job.
The local elections then are probably going to come as a horrible reality check in just a week’s time as this prime minister, riding high from his European tours, is reminded that his time in office looks like it will be coming to an end – and perhaps even sooner than he might have initially planned.
UK
Hundreds of NHS quangos to be axed – as plans unveiled for health funding to be linked to patient feedback
NHS funding could be linked to patient feedback under new plans, with poorly performing services that “don’t listen” penalised with less money.
As part of the “10 Year Health Plan” to be unveiled next week, a new scheme will be trialled that will see patients asked to rate the service they received – and if they feel it should get a funding boost or not.
It will be introduced first for services that have a track record of very poor performance and where there is evidence of patients “not being listened to”, the government said.
This will create a “powerful incentive for services to listen to feedback and improve patients’ experience”, it added.
Sky News understands that it will not mean bonuses or pay increases for the best performing staff.
NHS payment mechanisms will also be reformed to reward services that keep patients out of hospital as part of a new ‘Year of Care Payments’ initiative and the government’s wider plan for change.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Do you want AI listening in on chats with your doctor?
Speaking to The Times, chief executive of the NHS Confederation Matthew Taylor expressed concerns about the trial.
He told the newspaper: “Patient experience is determined by far more than their individual interaction with the clinician and so, unless this is very carefully designed and evaluated, there is a risk that providers could be penalised for more systemic issues, such as constraints around staffing or estates, that are beyond their immediate control to fix.”
He said that NHS leaders would be keen to “understand more about the proposal”, because elements were “concerning”.
Read more from Sky News
Amber health heat alert issued
Patient died ‘unexpectedly’ after NHS cyber attack
Doctors told to stop using unapproved AI
Health Secretary Wes Streeting said: “We will reward great patient care, so patient experience and clinical excellence are met with extra cash. These reforms are key to keeping people healthy and out of hospital, and to making the NHS sustainable for the long-term as part of the Plan for Change.”
In the raft of announcements in the 10 Year Health Plan, the government has said 201 bodies responsible for overseeing and running parts of the NHS in England – known as quangos – will be scrapped.
These include Healthwatch England, set up in 2012 to speak out on behalf of NHS and social care patients, the National Guardian’s Office, created in 2015 to support NHS whistleblowers, and the Health Services Safety Investigations Body (HSSIB).
The head of the Royal College of Nursing described the move as “so unsafe for patients right now”.
Professor Nicola Ranger said: “Today, in hospitals across the NHS, we know one nurse can be left caring for 10, 15 or more patients at a time. It’s not safe. It’s not effective. And it’s not acceptable.
“For these proposed changes to be effective, government must take ownership of the real issue, the staffing crisis on our wards, and not just shuffle people into new roles. Protecting patients has to be the priority and not just a drive for efficiency.”
Elsewhere, the new head of NHS England Sir Jim Mackey said key parts of the NHS appear “built to keep the public away because it’s an inconvenience”.
“We’ve made it really hard, and we’ve probably all been on the end of it,” he told the Daily Telegraph.
“The ward clerk only works nine to five, or they’re busy doing other stuff; the GP practice scrambles every morning.”
A haul of cocaine worth nearly £100m has been seized at a UK port, authorities say.
The haul, weighing 2.4 tonnes, was found under containers on a ship arriving from Panama at London Gateway port in Thurrock, Essex.
It had been detected earlier this year after an intelligence-led operation but was intercepted as it arrived in the UK this week.
With the help of the port operator, 37 large containers were moved to uncover the drugs, worth an estimated £96m.
The haul is the sixth-largest cocaine seizure in UK history, according to Border Force.
Its maritime director Charlie Eastaugh said: “This seizure – one of the largest of its kind – is just one example of how dedicated Border Force maritime officers remain one step ahead of the criminal gangs who threaten our security.
“Our message to these criminals is clear – more than ever before, we are using intelligence and international law enforcement cooperation to disrupt and dismantle your operations.”
Read more from Sky News
Robbie Williams addresses Glasto rumours
Body found in search for missing woman
Life sentence for sword murderer of schoolboy
Container ships are one of the main ways international gangs smuggle Class A drugs into the UK, Mr Eastaugh said.
Cocaine deaths in England and Wales increased by 31% between 2022 and 2023, according to the latest Home Office data.
Elsewhere this weekend, a separate haul of 170 kilos of ketamine, 4,000 MDMA pills, and 20 firearms were found on a lorry at Dover Port in Kent.
One of the 20 firearms found at Dover Port. Pic: NCA
Experts estimate the ketamine’s street value to be £4.5m, with the MDMA worth at least £40,000.
The driver of the lorry, a 34-year-old Tajikistan national, was arrested at the scene on suspicion of smuggling the items, the National Crime Agency said.
Sir Keir Starmer has said fixing the UK’s welfare system is a “moral imperative” after the government’s U-turn.
The prime minister faced a significant rebellion over plans to cut sickness and disability benefits as part of a package he said would shave £5bn off the welfare bill and get more people into work.
The government has since offered concessions ahead of a vote in the Commons on Tuesday, including exempting existing Personal Independence Payment claimants (PIP) from the stricter new criteria, while the universal credit health top-up will only be cut and frozen for new applications.
Speaking at Welsh Labour’s annual conference in Llandudno, North Wales, on Saturday, Sir Keir said: “Everyone agrees that our welfare system is broken, failing people every day.
“Fixing it is a moral imperative, but we need to do it in a Labour way, conference, and we will.”
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Starmer defends welfare U-turn
Sir Keir also warned of a “backroom stitch up” between the Conservatives, Reform UK and Plaid Cymru ahead of next year’s Senedd elections.
He said such a deal would mark a “return to the chaos and division of the last decade”.
But opposition parties have hit back at the prime minister’s “imaginary coalitions”, with Plaid Cymru accusing Labour of “scraping the barrel”.
Reform UK said the NHS “isn’t safe in Labour’s hands” and people are “left waiting in pain” while ministers “make excuses”.
Voters in Wales will head to the polls next May and recent polls suggest Labour are in third place, behind Reform and Plaid.
Labour have been the largest party at every Senedd election since devolution began in 1999.
Conservative Party leader Kemi Badenoch has not ruled out making deals with Plaid Cymru or Reform at the Senedd election.
Read more:
This has been the PM’s most damaging U-turn yet
Is Starmer at the mercy of his MPs?
At the conference, the prime minister was joined on stage by Wales Secretary Jo Stevens, First Minister Eluned Morgan and deputy leader of Welsh Labour Carolyn Harries.
He described Baroness Morgan as a “fierce champion for Wales” and “the best person to lead Wales into the future”.
Sir Keir said the £80m transition board to support Port Talbot steelworkers after the closure of the plant’s blast furnaces was a result of “two Labour governments working together for the people of Wales”.
He described Nigel Farage as a “wolf in Wall Street clothing” who has “no idea what he’s talking about” on the issue.
👉 Click here to listen to Electoral Dysfunction on your podcast app 👈
The PM said the Reform UK leader “isn’t interested in Wales” and has no viable plan for the blast furnaces at Port Talbot.
“When you ask him about Clacton, he thinks he’s running in the 2.10 at Ascot,” Sir Keir joked.
“He’s a wolf in Wall Street clothing.”
Mr Farage has said his party wants to restart the blast furnaces at Port Talbot.
Around 20 tractors were parked on the promenade in Llandudno ahead of the speech, as farmers gathered outside the conference to stage a protest.
It was later followed by a pro-Palestine demonstration of around 200 people, with around a dozen counter-protestors also in attendance.
-
Sports3 years ago‘Storybook stuff’: Inside the night Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series
-
Sports1 year agoStory injured on diving stop, exits Red Sox game
-
Sports2 years agoGame 1 of WS least-watched in recorded history
-
Sports2 years agoMLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
-
Sports4 years ago
Team Europe easily wins 4th straight Laver Cup
-
Environment2 years agoJapan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea
-
Sports2 years agoButton battles heat exhaustion in NASCAR debut
-
Environment2 years agoGame-changing Lectric XPedition launched as affordable electric cargo bike