Russia sanctions-busting? Big questions remain over UK car exports
The extraordinary, unprecedented and largely unexplained flows of millions of pounds of British luxury cars into states neighbouring Russia continued in February, according to new official data.
Some £26m worth of British cars were exported to Azerbaijan in February, according to data from HM Revenue & Customs.
The numbers show that in the latest quarter this former Soviet state with developing economy status was the 17th biggest destination for UK cars, bigger than long-established export markets such as Ireland, Portugal and Qatar.
Azerbaijan’s ascent has coincided almost to the month with the imposition of sanctions on the export of cars to Russia.
British cars are banned from being sent into Russia, both as “dual use” goods, which could be repurposed as weapons, and, for any cars over the value of £42,000, under specific luxury goods restrictions.
However, even as UK car exports to Russia plummeted to zero, they have risen sharply to states neighbouring Russia, including Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Georgia and, most notably of all, Azerbaijan.
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While it is impossible to prove where those shipments end up eventually, there is plentiful anecdotal evidence that these countries are being used as conduits to smuggle banned goods to Russia.
The latest HMRC data shows that in the three months to February, the average value of the cars being sent to Azerbaijan was over £115,000, making this small, relatively poor economy one of the most high-value luxury car markets in the world – alongside Switzerland, Luxembourg and Saudi Arabia.
The total value of UK car exports to Azerbaijan in the two years since the invasion of Ukraine and the imposition of sanctions is now £523m. That compares to £58m in the immediately preceding two years.
Britain’s motor lobby group, the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT), has insisted that this 800% increase can be explained by domestic factors in the Azerbaijani economy – and is not connected with Russian sanctions.
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March: British-made luxury cars still being bought by rich Russians
Read more:
UK-made cars are getting into Russia despite sanctions
2,000% increase in car sales to Azerbaijan ‘has nothing to do with Russia’
An SMMT spokesperson said: “UK carmakers comply with all trade sanctions and would condemn any party putting that commitment at risk. Car exports from UK factories to Azerbaijan have grown since 2019 due to multiple factors, including significant new model launches, pent-up demand and a growing domestic appetite for UK luxury cars. Indeed, UN data shows that just two cars of any origin have been officially exported from Azerbaijan to Russia this year.
“We have never ruled out the possibility that third parties might exploit any vulnerabilities in the sanction regime, and manufacturers do everything in their power to prevent this. Any UK-built vehicle on sale in Russia found its way there without their authorisation. This is a fast-moving global issue covering products from multiple sectors in many countries deploying sanctions, and tackling any vulnerabilities requires a coordinated, global response.”
However, while United Nations (UN) data suggests the quantity of cars being officially exported to Russia remains low, that same evidence suggests that, far from behaving like a normal car market, Azerbaijan does seem to be funnelling cars off elsewhere into Central Asia.
Contrary to the SMMT’s analysis, which suggests the car exports can be explained by domestic factors, car exports from Azerbaijan have risen by 4,800% since the invasion of Russia, with most of the cars destined (according to UN data) for Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Georgia and the United Arab Emirates.
According to UK government sources, these states are understood to be widely used as conduits for goods into Russia.
Cars are not the only British goods to have seen a large spike in exports to Central Asia and the Caucasus – so too have components and machinery used to make weapons. In a visit to Kyrgyzstan this week, Foreign Secretary Lord Cameron admitted that Russia is using central Asian countries to sidestep sanctions and build its “war machine”.
Budget fears and unseasonably warm weather led to consumers spending far less than expected last month, according to official figures.
In a sign of a slowing economy, retail sales fell a sharp 0.7%, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said.
The fall was larger than expected. A drop of 0.3% was forecasted by economists polled by the Reuters news agency.
Money blog: Energy bills to rise in January
Clothing stores were particularly affected, where sales fell by 3.1% over the month as October temperatures remained high, putting shoppers off winter purchases.
Retailers across the board, however, reported consumers held back on spending ahead of the budget, the ONS added.
Just a month earlier, in September, spending rose by 0.1%.
Despite the October fall, the ONS pointed out that the trend is for sales increases on a yearly and three-monthly basis and for them to be lower than before the COVID-19 pandemic.
Retail sales figures are significant as household consumption measured by the data is the largest expenditure across the UK economy.
The data can also help track how consumers feel about their financial position and the economy more broadly.
Another signal of a slowing economy was the latest growth figures which showed a smaller-than-expected GDP (gross domestic product) measurement.
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Business owners worried after budget
Consumer confidence could be bouncing back
Also released on Friday was news of a rise in consumer confidence in the weeks following the budget and the US election.
Market research company GfK’s long-running consumer confidence index “jumped” in November, the company said, as people intended to make Black Friday purchases.
It noted that inflation has yet to be tamed with people still feeling acute cost-of-living pressures.
It will take time for the UK’s new government to deliver on its promise of change, it added.
A quirk in the figures
Economic research firm Pantheon Macro said the dates included in the ONS’s retail sales figures could have distorted the headline figure.
The half-term break, during which spending typically increases, was excluded from the monthly statistics as the cut-off point was 26 October.
With cold weather gripping the UK this week clothing sales are likely to rise as delayed winter clothing purchases are made, Pantheon added.
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