The Bute House Agreement – signed back in 2021 and named after the first minister’s official residence in Edinburgh – brought the Green Party into government for the first time anywhere in the UK.
It gave the SNPa majority at Holyrood when the votes of its MSPs were combined with those of the seven Green members, and also made Green co-leaders Patrick Harvie and Lorna Slater junior ministers.
More on Humza Yousaf
Related Topics:
Without it, the SNP would need to have operated as a minority administration at Holyrood.
What caused the relationship to sour?
Advertisement
There had been mounting tensions between the largest party at Holyrood and their junior partners in government.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
3:03
‘I intend to fight that vote’
What brought things to a head?
Mr Yousaf decided to pull the plug on the agreement – arguing it had “served its purpose” – prompting a major fallout with his former allies, who vowed to back a no-confidence motion in his leadership proposed by Scottish Conservative leader Douglas Ross.
So how do the numbers stack up?
Tight to say the least.
As the leader of a now minority government, Mr Yousaf’s fate is set to depend on just one vote – that of a former SNP leadership rival.
In the Scottish parliament, the SNP has 63 seats out of 129, two short of an outright majority.
The Greens voting in favour of the no-confidence motion would mean 64 MSPs do not back the first minister.
The presiding officer Alison Johnstone, the equivalent of the Commons speaker, traditionally does not vote and would only so so in the event of a tiebreak and would be expected to support the status quo – so back the first minister.
That leaves Ash Regan, the one-time SNP leadership rival to Mr Yousaf who defected to Alex Salmond’s Alba Party last October.
She has written to the first minister, setting out demands in exchange for her support.
When will the vote be held?
Any no-confidence vote in Mr Yousaf is likely to take place next week, with timings to be confirmed by parliamentary business managers who are expected to meet on Tuesday.
What happens if Mr Yousaf loses?
The vote is not binding and so he would not be forced to step down – but he would be under immense pressure to quit, and his position likely to be judged untenable if he did not have the confidence of most MSPs.
However, the resignation of the first minister would not automatically trigger a Holyrood election, with a 28-day grace period for MSPs to choose a replacement.
This means that if Mr Yousaf was to quit, the SNP may seek to have a replacement leader installed in the post – assuming they could muster enough support.
Follow Sky News on WhatsApp
Keep up with all the latest news from the UK and around the world by following Sky News
No. Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar says he will separately lay a motion of no confidence in the Scottish government.
While this carries more far-reaching implications by compelling ministers to resign and raising the prospect of an election, it is unlikely to succeed.
Alba has already ruled out its pivotal support, accusing Mr Sarwar of “grandstanding”.
Thousands of farmers from across the UK are expected to gather outside Downing Street today – in the biggest protest yet against the government’s changes to inheritance tax rules.
The reforms, announced in last month’s budget, will mean farms worth over £1m will be subject to 20% inheritance tax from April 2026.
Farmers say that will lead to land being sold to pay the tax bill, impact food security and the future of British farming.
The Government insists it is “committed” to the farming industry but has had to make “difficult decisions”.
Farmers from Scotland, Northern Ireland, Wales and England will arrive in London to hear speeches from agricultural leaders.
Sky News understands TV presenter and farm owner Jeremy Clarkson, Conservative Party leader Kemi Badenoch and Lib Dem leader Ed Davey will also address crowds.
Protestors will then march around Parliament Square.
More on Farming
Related Topics:
‘It’s really worrying’
“It’s unfortunate, as Labour had originally said they would support farmers,” said fourth-generation farmer Will Weaver, who is attending today’s rally.
Advertisement
His 500-acre cow and sheep farm in South Gloucestershire has been in his family since 1939.
“We’ve probably buried our head in the sand a little bit. I think, back of a fag-packet rough estimates, tax is going to be north of half a million [pounds].”
The government is keen to stress that farmers will get a decade to pay the bill – but that comes as little comfort to Will: “It’s more than our profit in any year that we’ve had in the last 10 years. Dad’s saying we’ll have to sell something. I don’t know if we’ll be able to raise that sort of money through a mortgage. It’s really worrying.”
The Treasury says only the wealthiest estates, around 500 of them, will have to pay under the new rules – claiming 72% of farms won’t be impacted.
But farmers say that calculation is incorrect – citing that DEFRA’s own figures show 66% of farms are valued at over £1m and that the government has undervalued many estates.
At the same time as the rally, the NFU is addressing 1,800 of its members in Westminster before they lobby MPs.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
2:28
The president of the National Farmers’ Union says farmers are feeling
‘Understanding has been betrayed’
Max Sealy represents the NFU Dairy Board in the South of England.
“We have a detailed job to do to explain why this is wrong not just for farming, not just for the countryside and not just for our families, but for the economy in general,” he said.
“This is a bad tax – it’s been badly implemented because it will affect growth productivity in the country.”
He told Sky News Labour made promises to farmers ahead of the election.
“Both Steve Reed and Keir Starmer came to our conference two years ago and told us farming wasn’t a business like any others and that he understood the long-term nature of farming – that understanding has been betrayed,” he said.
In a joint statement, Chancellor Rachel Reeves and Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Steve Reed said: “Farmers are the backbone of Britain, and we recognise the strength of feeling expressed by farming and rural communities in recent weeks. We are steadfast in our commitment to Britain’s farming industry because food security is national security.
“It’s why we are investing £5bn into farming over the next two years – the largest amount ever directed towards sustainable food production, rural economic growth and nature’s recovery in our country’s history.
“But with public services crumbling and a £22bn fiscal hole that this Government inherited, we have taken difficult decisions.
“The reforms to Agricultural Property Relief ensure that wealthier estates and the most valuable farms pay their fair share to invest in our schools and health services that farmers and families in rural communities rely on.”
A Met Police spokesperson said it was “well prepared” for the protest and would have officers deployed to ensure it passes off “safely, lawfully and in a way that prevents serious disruption”.