Scottish First Minister Humza Yousaf is battling for political survival. How did we get here – and what happens next?

Published

11 months ago

April 26, 2024

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Scotland’s First Minister Humza Yousaf is battling to save his job as he faces a knife-edge no-confidence vote.

The SNP leader triggered a crisis at Holyrood after he dramatically brought the power sharing deal with the Scottish Greens to an end.

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The backlash has plunged Mr Yousaf’s future into doubt, although party colleagues insist he will not resign.

How did we get here?

The Bute House Agreement – signed back in 2021 and named after the first minister’s official residence in Edinburgh – brought the Green Party into government for the first time anywhere in the UK.

It gave the SNP a majority at Holyrood when the votes of its MSPs were combined with those of the seven Green members, and also made Green co-leaders Patrick Harvie and Lorna Slater junior ministers.

Without it, the SNP would need to have operated as a minority administration at Holyrood.

What caused the relationship to sour?

There had been mounting tensions between the largest party at Holyrood and their junior partners in government.

The Greens were angered at the SNP-led administration’s recent decision to ditch a key climate change target.

That, combined with the decision to pause the prescription of new puberty blockers to under-18s at Scotland’s only gender clinic, resulted in the Greens announcing they would have a vote on the future of the power sharing deal.

What brought things to a head?

Mr Yousaf decided to pull the plug on the agreement – arguing it had “served its purpose” – prompting a major fallout with his former allies, who vowed to back a no-confidence motion in his leadership proposed by Scottish Conservative leader Douglas Ross.

So how do the numbers stack up?

Tight to say the least.

As the leader of a now minority government, Mr Yousaf’s fate is set to depend on just one vote – that of a former SNP leadership rival.

In the Scottish parliament, the SNP has 63 seats out of 129, two short of an outright majority.

The Greens voting in favour of the no-confidence motion would mean 64 MSPs do not back the first minister.

The presiding officer Alison Johnstone, the equivalent of the Commons speaker, traditionally does not vote and would only so so in the event of a tiebreak and would be expected to support the status quo – so back the first minister.

That leaves Ash Regan, the one-time SNP leadership rival to Mr Yousaf who defected to Alex Salmond’s Alba Party last October.

She has written to the first minister, setting out demands in exchange for her support.

When will the vote be held?

Any no-confidence vote in Mr Yousaf is likely to take place next week, with timings to be confirmed by parliamentary business managers who are expected to meet on Tuesday.

What happens if Mr Yousaf loses?

The vote is not binding and so he would not be forced to step down – but he would be under immense pressure to quit, and his position likely to be judged untenable if he did not have the confidence of most MSPs.

However, the resignation of the first minister would not automatically trigger a Holyrood election, with a 28-day grace period for MSPs to choose a replacement.

This means that if Mr Yousaf was to quit, the SNP may seek to have a replacement leader installed in the post – assuming they could muster enough support.

Is that all?

No. Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar says he will separately lay a motion of no confidence in the Scottish government.

While this carries more far-reaching implications by compelling ministers to resign and raising the prospect of an election, it is unlikely to succeed.

Alba has already ruled out its pivotal support, accusing Mr Sarwar of “grandstanding”.

Politics

Crypto stocks down, IPOs punted amid tariff tumult

Published

3 hours ago

April 4, 2025

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Crypto stocks down, IPOs punted amid tariff tumult

Cryptocurrency firms felt the heat from US President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff rollout this week as market turbulence sent share prices tumbling and foiled initial public offering (IPO) plans.

From exchanges to Bitcoin (BTC) miners, crypto stocks suffered as much, if not more, than shares of other companies — despite the industry’s warm relationship with the US president.

On April 2, Trump announced he was placing tariffs of at least 10% on practically all imports into the United States and adding additional “reciprocal” tariffs on some 57 countries.

Since then, major US stock indices — including the S&P 500 and Nasdaq — tumbled by roughly 10% as traders braced for a looming trade war.

Sharp selloffs

Crypto exchange Coinbase — a prominent ally of Trump during the November US elections — experienced a similarly severe sell-off, with its stock price dropping by roughly 12% during the same period, according to data from Google Finance.

Bitcoin miners are also taking a hit. The CoinShares Crypto Miners ETF (WGMI) — which tracks a diverse basket of Bitcoin mining stocks — has lost roughly 13% of its value since immediately prior to Trump’s April 2 announcement, according to data from Morningstar.

Even Strategy, one of the best-performing stocks of 2024, wasn’t immune. Its share price has fallen by around 6% on the news, Google Finance data showed.

According to Reuters, investment bank JPMorgan has raised its estimated odds of a global economic recession in 2025 to 60% from 40% previously.

“Disruptive U.S. policies have been recognized as the biggest risk to the global outlook all year,” JP Morgan reportedly said.

“The effect … is likely to be magnified through (tariff) retaliation, a slide in U.S. business sentiment and supply-chain disruptions.”

IPO delays

The impact of US tariffs hasn’t been limited to stock price volatility. Stablecoin issuer Circle has reportedly paused plans for a 2025 IPO, citing market turbulence.

According to The Wall Street Journal, Circle is “waiting anxiously” before taking further steps after filing to take the company public on April 1.

It is among several companies — including fintech Klarna and ticketing service StubHub — reportedly considering altering or shelving IPO plans.

One exception may be Bitcoin itself, which some analysts say is finally “decoupling” from the broader market.

Bitcoin’s spot price has held above $82,000 this week, even as US equities markets collapsed.

Magazine: Unstablecoins: Depegging, bank runs and other risks loom

Politics

Brazilian court authorizes crypto seizure for debt collection — Report

Published

3 hours ago

April 4, 2025

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Brazilian court authorizes crypto seizure for debt collection — Report

Brazilian judges have been authorized to seize cryptocurrency assets from debtors who owe money and are behind on their payments, signaling a growing recognition that digital assets can be both a form of payment and a store of value.

According to local media reports, the Third Panel of Brazil’s Superior Court of Justice unanimously authorized judges to send letters to cryptocurrency brokers informing them about their intent to seize an account holder’s assets to repay creditors.

The report was confirmed by the Superior Court of Justice, which issued a notice on its website.

The decision was reached unanimously by the Third Panel, which reviewed a case brought forward by a creditor.

“Although they are not legal tender, crypto assets can be used as a form of payment and as a store of value,” a translated version of the Superior Court of Justice’s memo read.

Under existing rules, Brazilian judges are allowed to freeze bank accounts and order fund withdrawals, even without a debtor’s knowledge, should they rule that a creditor is owed money.

Following the recent decision, crypto assets now fall under the same purview.

Minister Ricardo Villas Bôas Cueva, who voted in the five-person panel, said cryptocurrencies still lack formal regulation in Brazil but noted certain bills have recognized the asset class as “a digital representation of value.”

Despite regulatory uncertainty, Brazil is a major hub for crypto

Although Brazil still lacks an overarching framework for digital assets, with the country’s central bank divvying up the regulatory processes into phases, crypto adoption is surging across the country.

Brazil ranks second among all Latin American countries in terms of “crypto value received,” which is a key benchmark for adoption, according to an October report by Chainalysis.

Earlier this year, crypto exchange Binance was granted approval to operate in the country after it acquired a São Paulo-based investment company.

A Binance executive told Cointelegraph at the time that Brazil was making “significant strides” in regulating the industry and expects a comprehensive framework to be finalized “by mid-year.”

Nevertheless, not all of Brazil’s regulatory proposals have been favorable for the industry.

In December, the country’s central bank proposed banning stablecoin transactions on self-custodial wallets at a time when more locals were using dollar-pegged tokens to hedge against the devaluation of the Brazilian real.

Industry observers told Cointelegraph at the time that such a ban would be difficult to enforce.

“Governments can regulate centralized exchanges, but P2P transactions and decentralized platforms are much harder to control, which means the ban would likely only affect part of the ecosystem,” said Lucien Bourdon, an analyst with Trezor.

Politics

‘Will the PM side with parents or tech bros?’: Labour peer demands action on children’s smartphone safety

Published

4 hours ago

April 4, 2025

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'Will the PM side with parents or tech bros?': Labour peer demands action on children's smartphone safety

Sir Keir Starmer needs to choose between parents who want stronger action to tackle harmful content on children’s phones, or the “tech bros” who are resisting changes to their platforms, Baroness Harriet Harman has said.

Speaking to Beth Rigby on Sky News’ Electoral Dysfunction podcast, the Labour peer noted that the prime minister met with the creators of hit Netflix drama Adolescence to discuss safety on social media, but she questioned if he is going to take action to “stop the tech companies allowing this sort of stuff” on their platforms where children can access it.

Sir Keir hosted a roundtable on Monday with Adolescence co-writer Jack Thorne and producer Jo Johnson to discuss issues raised in the series, which centres on a 13-year-old boy arrested for the murder of a young girl, and the rise of incel culture.

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The aim was to discuss how to prevent young boys being dragged into a “whirlpool of hatred and misogyny”, and the prime minister said the four-part series raises questions about how to keep young people safe from technology.

Sir Keir has backed calls for the four-part drama to be shown in all schools across the country, but Baroness Harman questioned what is going to be achieved by having young people simply watch the show.

“Two questions were raised [for me],” she said. ” Firstly – after they’ve watched it, what is going to be the discussion afterwards?

“And secondly, is he going to act to stop the tech companies allowing this sort of stuff to go online into smartphones without protection of children?

“Because if the tech companies wanted to do this, they could actually protect children. They can do everything they want with their tech.”

She acknowledged there are “very big public policy challenges” in this area, but added of the prime minister: “Is he going to side with parents who are terrified and want this content off their children’s phones, or is he going to accept the tech bros’ resistance to having to make changes?”

👉 Click here to listen to Electoral Dysfunction on your podcast app 👈

Can parliament keep up?

The Labour peer backed the Conservative Party’s call for a ban on smartphones in schools to be mandated from Westminster, saying it would “enable all schools not to have a discussion with their parents or to battle it out, but just to say, this is the ruling” from central government, which Ofsted would then enforce.

“I’m sensitive to the idea that we shouldn’t constantly be telling schools what to do,” she continued. “And they’ve got a lot of common sense and a lot of professional experience, and they should have as much autonomy as possible.

“But perhaps it’s easier for them if it’s done top down.”

Baroness Harman also questioned the speed with which parliament is actually able to legislate to deal with the very rapid development of new technologies, and posits that it could “change its processes to be able to legislate in real time”.

She suggested that a “powerful select committee” of MPs could be established to do that, because “otherwise we talk about it, and then we’re not able to legislate for 10 years – by which time that problem has really set in, and we’ve got a whole load more problems”.

On the podcast, the trio also discussed the 10% tariffs imposed on the UK by Donald Trump and the government’s efforts to strike a trade deal with the US to mitigate the impact of the levy.

The government has refused to rule out scrapping the Digital Services Tax, a 2% levy on tech giants’ revenues in the UK, as part of the negotiations with the Trump administration – a move Baroness Harman said would be “very heartbreaking”.

👉 Click here to listen to Electoral Dysfunction on your podcast app 👈