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The US economy grew at its slowest pace in two years in the first quarter, while prices rose at a faster rate — sending the markets into a tailspin Thursday and clouding President Joe Biden’s sunny outlook for American households heading into his reelection battle.

The data released by the Commerce Department showed that gross domestic product (GDP) grew at an annualized pace of 1.6% during the three-month period ended in March — below the 2.4% projected by economists polled by The Wall Street Journal.

The growth rate was the lowest since 2022 and came in much lower than fourth-quarter GDP, which was revised up to 3.4%, and marked a cooldown from the quarter prior, when it was 4.9%.

More troubling was that prices have remained sticky.

Thursday’s data also showed the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index excluding food and energy — a key gauge watched by the Federal Reserve as it weighs whether to cut interest rates — surged at a 3.7% rate in the first quarter, versus the central bank’s 2% target.

Investors and analysts put more weight on the high inflation figure than on signs the economy may finally be cooling, which would generally encourage the Fed to cut rates.

The Dow Jones Industrial Index plunged nearly 700 points after the data was released as investors all but gave up hope on the Fed slashing the 23-year high rates more than one time this year — and most likely not until the fall.

The Dow pared some of the losses, closing down 375 points, or 1%. The S&P 500 was down 0.5%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq dropped 0.6%.

Data from the CME Group’s FedWatch tool showed the probability of a Fed rate cut in June at 10% odds, with bets on a September cut slipping below 58%, and a second cut in December given less than even odds.

“This report comes in with mixed messages,” said Olu Sonola, head of economic research at Fitch. “If growth continues to slowly decelerate, but inflation strongly takes off again in the wrong direction, the expectation of a Fed interest rate cut in 2024 is starting to look increasingly more out of reach.”

The report on GDP, which represents the value of all goods and services produced within a given period, showed that American consumers remain strong after years of hiring and wage growth. Spending was driven by healthcare, financial services and insurance, which offset a decline in goods, including motor vehicles and gasoline.

Biden attempted to spin the GDP data in his favor, touting that “the economy has grown more since I took office than at this point in any presidential term in the last 25 years.”

Gregory Daco, chief economist at the tax and consulting firm EY, noted that the underlying economy looks solid, though its slowing from last years unexpectedly fast pace.

The rise in imports that accounted for much of the drop in first-quarter growth, he noted, is a sign of solid demand by American consumers for foreign goods.

Still, Daco said that the economys momentum is cooling.

Its unlikely to be a major retrenchment, he said, but we are likely to see cooler economic momentum as a result of consumers exercising more scrutiny with their outlays.

US debt has soared to $33 trillion, the highest ever, with the debt-to-GDP ratio topping 100% — at 123%, per the International Monetary Fund, which projects the ratio to reach 130% by 2035.

The Fed has warned that stubbornly high inflation could persist, especially given the resilience of the labor market, which added a whopping 303,000 positions in March.

Though many of the job gains were reportedly taken by migrants — who have been occupying a growing chunk of the US workforce — a strong labor market historically keeps wages and consumer spending levels elevated, thus fanning inflation and interest rates.

As a result, Wall Street is now widely expecting Fed officials to slash two times by the end of the year — down from the previous forecast that there would be three rate cuts totaling 0.75 percentage points.

“Given the strength of the labor market and progress on inflation so far, it’s appropriate to allow restrictive policy further time to work and let the data and the evolving outlook guide us,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on April 16.

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UK

VE Day: Veterans to join King for tea party as Keir Starmer praises ‘selfless dedication’

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VE Day: Veterans to join King for tea party as Keir Starmer praises 'selfless dedication'

Veterans are set to join the King for a VE Day tea party today as the prime minister has paid tribute to the “selfless dedication” of the war generation.

Among them will be a 99-year-old who took part in the D-Day landings and a 100-year-old woman who worked in the Special Operations Executive, known as Churchill’s Secret Army.

Director general of the Royal British Legion, Mark Atkinson, said the charity was “proud” to be taking a place “at the heart of these national celebrations and commemorations” on the 80th anniversary of the end of the Second World War.

He said it would be “one of our last opportunities as a nation to pay tribute to those veterans still with us today”.

Evacuees from World War Two and veterans who were still in active conflict after VE Day are among the other guests set to attend the tea party, which will take place in the presence of the King and other members of the Royal Family.

The Royal Family will watch a millitary procession and flypast on Monday. File pic: PA
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The Royal Family will watch a military procession and flypast on Monday. File pic: PA

At 12pm, the Royal Family will observe a military procession, followed by a flypast.

It will be the first major VE Day anniversary without any of the royals who stood on the balcony of Buckingham Palace on the day victory in Europe was declared, after the death of the late Queen Elizabeth II in 2022.

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‘Not just for Britain’

The celebrations come as Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer praised veterans for their “selfless dedication” and thanked them for a “debt that can never fully be repaid” in an open letter ahead of VE Day.

He said the stories which will be heard this week from those who fought in the Second World War would be a reminder that the victory “was not just for Britain” but was also “a victory for good against the assembled forces of hatred, tyranny and evil”.

Sir Keir said the WW2 veterans “represent the best of who we are” and that without their service “the freedom, peace and joy that these celebrations embody, would not be possible”.

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VE Day veteran tells Sky News what the atmosphere was like when WWII was finally declared over in Europe

Personnel from NATO allies the US, France and Germany will be among those taking part in the procession in London.

The commemorations will begin with the words of Sir Winston Churchill‘s 1945 victory speech, spoken by actor Timothy Spall.

Thousands of people are expected to line the streets of the capital to witness the celebrations.

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Codebreaker’s ‘special’ encounter with Churchill

Read more:
What’s happening to mark the 80th anniversary of VE Day?
When and where to watch VE Day flypast
Augmented reality brings to life the stories of VE Day 80 years on

On the anniversary itself on Thursday, marking exactly 80 years since the Allies formally accepted Germany’s surrender, a service of commemoration will be held at Westminster Abbey, to include a national two minutes’ silence.

Pubs across England and Wales, which usually close at 11pm, will also stay open for an extra two hours to allow punters more time to celebrate.

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Sports

Logano gets 1st win this season in OT at Texas

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Logano gets 1st win this season in OT at Texas

FORT WORTH, Texas — Reigning NASCAR Cup champion Joey Logano overcame a lot to get his first victory this season.

It came a week after Team Penske teammate Austin Cindric‘s win at Talladega, where Logano had a fifth-place finish that became 39th after a postrace inspection found an issue with the spoiler on his No. 22 Ford. There was also Logano’s expletive-laden rant on the radio toward his teammate in the middle of that race that the two smoothed out during the week. Oh, and he started 27th at Texas after a bad qualifying effort on the 1½-mile track.

But Logano surged ahead on the restart in overtime Sunday to win in the 11th race this year. He led only seven of the 271 laps, four more than scheduled.

“After what happened last week, to be able to rebound and come right back, it’s a total ’22’ way of doing things. So proud of the team,” Logano said.

On the final restart after the 12th caution, Logano was on the inside of his other teammate, Ryan Blaney. But Logano pulled away on the backstretch and stayed easily in front for the final 1½ laps, while Ross Chastain then passed Blaney to finish second ahead of him.

“Just slowly, methodically,” Logano said of his progression to the front. “Just kept grinding, a couple here and a couple there and eventually get a win here.”

Logano got his 37th career victory, getting the lead for the first time on Lap 264. He went low to complete a pass of Michael McDowell.

“I mean, there’s always a story next week, right?” Logano said. “So I told my wife last week before we left, I said, ‘Watch me go win this one.’ It’s just how we do stuff.”

On a caution with 47 laps left, McDowell took only two tires and moved up 15 spots to second. He ended up leading 19 laps, but got loose a few laps after getting passed by Logano and crashed to bring out the caution that sent the race to overtime. He finished 26th.

“We were giving it everything we had there to try to keep track position,” McDowell said. “Joey got a run there, and I tried to block it. I went as far as I think you could probably go. When Blaney slid in front of me, it just took the air off of it and I just lost the back of it. I still had the fight in me, but I probably should have conceded at that point.”

Odds and Ends

William Byron, Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin and Chase Elliott remained the top four in season points. … Elliott left Texas last spring with his first victory after 42 races and 18 months without one. He hasn’t won since, and now has another long winless drought — this one 38 races and nearly 13 months after finishing 16th. … A crew member for Christopher Bell crawled in through the passenger side of the No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota and was fully in the car to reconnect an air hose to the driver’s helmet during a caution in the second stage. It took two stops during that caution, and twice climbing into the car, to resolve the issue.

Fiery end to Hamlin streak

Hamlin had finished on the lead lap in 21 consecutive races, but a fiery finish on Lap 75 ended that streak that had matched the eighth longest in NASCAR history. He was the first car out of the race.

After the No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota lost power, something blew up when Hamlin recycled the engine. Flames were coming from under the car and it was engulfed in smoke when it rolled to a stop on the inside of the track, and Hamlin climbed out unharmed.

Youngest pole sitter

Carson Hocevar, the 22-year-old driver who is McDowell’s teammate with Spire Motorsports, was the youngest pole sitter in Texas. He led only the first 22 laps of the race, losing it while pitting during the first caution. He finished 24th after a late accident.

Stage cautions

Both in-race stages finished under caution. Cindric won Stage 1 after Hamlin’s issues, and Kyle Larson took the second after a yellow flag came out because of debris on the track after the right rear tire on Chris Buescher‘s car came apart.

Larson got his 68th overall stage win and his sixth at Texas, with both marks being records. He has won a stage in each of the past five Cup races at Texas, starting in his 2021 win there.

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US

Trump calls for reopening of Alcatraz to house ‘most ruthless and violent offenders’

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Trump calls for reopening of Alcatraz to house 'most ruthless and violent offenders'

US President Donald Trump has called for the reopening of notorious prison Alcatraz.

In a post on his social media site Truth Social, Mr Trump said America had been “plagued by vicious, violent, and repeat criminal offenders”.

He added that when the United States was “a more serious nation” it “did not hesitate to lock up the most dangerous criminals”.

“That is why, today, I am directing the Bureau of Prisons, together with the Department of Justice, FBI, and Homeland Security, to reopen a substantially enlarged and rebuilt Alcatraz, to house America’s most ruthless and violent offenders,” he wrote.

Mr Trump said the reopening of the San Francisco prison would “serve as a symbol of law, order, and justice”.

The US president’s latest policy announcement comes after he fired national security adviser Mike Waltz last week in the first major change to his administration.

US President Donald Trump. Pic: AP
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US President Donald Trump speaking to reporters on Sunday. Pic: AP

Alcatraz was infamously inescapable and in the 29 years it was open, 36 men attempted 14 separate escapes, according to the FBI.

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Nearly all of them were caught or did not survive the attempt at escaping.

The prison housed some of America’s most notorious criminals, including Al Capone and George Kelly.

It has also been the subject of a number of films, including The Rock, starring Sean Connery and Nicolas Cage.

Alcatraz Island. File pic: AP
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Alcatraz Island. File pic: AP

Alcatraz Island, which is surrounded by strong ocean currents and cold Pacific waters, is now a major tourist site, operated by the National Park Service.

The prison’s closure in 1963 was attributed to crumbling infrastructure and high repair costs.

A spokesperson for the Bureau of Prisons said it would “comply with all presidential orders”.

The Bureau of Prisons currently has 16 high-security prisons, including its maximum-security facility in Florence, Colorado, and a facility in Terre Haute, Indiana, which is home to the federal death chamber.

The United States’ federal law enforcement agency has been the subject of increased scrutiny in recent years after Jeffrey Epstein‘s suicide at a federal jail in New York City in 2019.

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