Rishi Sunak needs to learn voters aren’t always governed by the logic of the computer

Published

7 months ago

April 28, 2024

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I’ve known Rishi Sunak slightly for almost a decade, having first met him after he penned a thoughtful, comprehensive, well-received report on Britain’s minority communities, which I’d say is still the best of its kind.

Sitting down to interview him in a state-of-the-art defence facility this week, I could still see the same energetic, likeable problem solver that I met back then, even if he’s now surrounded by the prime ministerial cavalcade of aides, security and media.

That Peloton and fasting regime are clearly doing their job. He’s keen to show his detailed grasp of the situation, whether that’s welfare reform, defence or migration. It’s easy to see why he shone in Silicon Valley and thrived in the Treasury.

However, in the political world he chose, there’s a downside to being highly intelligent, disciplined, and super-focused on delivery, as they might say in California.

He betrays frustration with what he – not wholly unjustifiably – sees as a media obsession with polls and presentation.

Unfortunately, as Enoch Powell once pointed out, a politician who complains about journalists is like a sailor who doesn’t much fancy being at sea.

He rightly points out that it’s his job to make hard choices – for example, funding the defence budget even if it’s at the expense of schools and hospitals.

But a political leader should also know that what follows is an even harder job: to cajole the electorate into supporting that choice – and the voters aren’t always governed by the logic of the computer.

So far, the Tory leader has yet to persuade the public to see the virtue of the plan he mentions several times in every public appearance.

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His party languishes 20 points adrift of Labour, and despite a flurry of policy announcements in recent days, the Tories seem heading for a drubbing in next week’s mayoral and council elections.

He’s lost six by-elections and looks certain to lose another this week.

Undoubtedly some of the problem is the party he leads; most of the by-elections were caused by what used to be called “conduct unbecoming” – financial or sexual shenanigans – by his own MPs.

He isn’t being helped by being a young PM with five living predecessors from his own party. He’s recruited one – David Cameron – to his administration, but there are still three who are never slow in pointing out how they would have done things better.

But even many loyal supporters are beginning to ask if the problem for the Tories is not the followers, but the leader.

There is no doubt that Sunak is a huge contrast to his immediate predecessors. His private life seems uncomplicated and joyous, and despite never having qualified as an accountant, he’s unlikely ever to cause Truss-level panic in the markets.

But political missteps keep coming. Even in our interview, it may have been right to say that the new flow of illegal migrants into Ireland is some kind of proof that the threat of deportation to Rwanda is beginning to bite.

But to position Ireland’s discomfort at our exporting asylum seekers to the Republic is, at the very least, undiplomatic.

Perhaps, as one senior Tory parliamentarian said to me this week, Rishi Sunak should have remained in his former post, and been remembered as the chancellor who saw us through COVID, then steered us to economic stability.

The danger now is that, unless he stages an unlikely turnaround in the Tories’ fortunes, he will go down in history as the prime minister who took his party into a lengthy spell in the wilderness against a Labour opposition that no one would describe as inspiring.

Watch Rishi Sunak’s full interview on Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips at 8.30am

Politics

California judge rules DAO members liable under partnership laws

Published

2 hours ago

November 19, 2024

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California judge rules DAO members liable under partnership laws

A16z Crypto’s Miles Jennings posted on X that the ruling is a “huge blow” to decentralized governance.

Politics

Thousands of farmers to descend on Downing Street to protest against inheritance tax changes

Published

3 hours ago

November 19, 2024

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Thousands of farmers to descend on Downing Street to protest against inheritance tax changes

Thousands of farmers from across the UK are expected to gather outside Downing Street today – in the biggest protest yet against the government’s changes to inheritance tax rules.

The reforms, announced in last month’s budget, will mean farms worth over £1m will be subject to 20% inheritance tax from April 2026.

Farmers say that will lead to land being sold to pay the tax bill, impact food security and the future of British farming.

The Government insists it is “committed” to the farming industry but has had to make “difficult decisions”.

Farmers from Scotland, Northern Ireland, Wales and England will arrive in London to hear speeches from agricultural leaders.

Sky News understands TV presenter and farm owner Jeremy Clarkson, Conservative Party leader Kemi Badenoch and Lib Dem leader Ed Davey will also address crowds.

Protestors will then march around Parliament Square.

‘It’s really worrying’

“It’s unfortunate, as Labour had originally said they would support farmers,” said fourth-generation farmer Will Weaver, who is attending today’s rally.

His 500-acre cow and sheep farm in South Gloucestershire has been in his family since 1939.

“We’ve probably buried our head in the sand a little bit. I think, back of a fag-packet rough estimates, tax is going to be north of half a million [pounds].”

The government is keen to stress that farmers will get a decade to pay the bill – but that comes as little comfort to Will: “It’s more than our profit in any year that we’ve had in the last 10 years. Dad’s saying we’ll have to sell something. I don’t know if we’ll be able to raise that sort of money through a mortgage. It’s really worrying.”

As anger grows, there continues to be disagreement between the National Farmer’s Union and the Government over how many farms will actually be impacted by the change.

The Treasury says only the wealthiest estates, around 500 of them, will have to pay under the new rules – claiming 72% of farms won’t be impacted.

But farmers say that calculation is incorrect – citing that DEFRA’s own figures show 66% of farms are valued at over £1m and that the government has undervalued many estates.

At the same time as the rally, the NFU is addressing 1,800 of its members in Westminster before they lobby MPs.

More on this story:
Farmers warn of food price hikes
Minister downplays risk of empty shelves if farmers strike

‘Understanding has been betrayed’

Max Sealy represents the NFU Dairy Board in the South of England.

“We have a detailed job to do to explain why this is wrong not just for farming, not just for the countryside and not just for our families, but for the economy in general,” he said.

“This is a bad tax – it’s been badly implemented because it will affect growth productivity in the country.”

He told Sky News Labour made promises to farmers ahead of the election.

“Both Steve Reed and Keir Starmer came to our conference two years ago and told us farming wasn’t a business like any others and that he understood the long-term nature of farming – that understanding has been betrayed,” he said.

And the government say:

In a joint statement, Chancellor Rachel Reeves and Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Steve Reed said: “Farmers are the backbone of Britain, and we recognise the strength of feeling expressed by farming and rural communities in recent weeks. We are steadfast in our commitment to Britain’s farming industry because food security is national security.

“It’s why we are investing £5bn into farming over the next two years – the largest amount ever directed towards sustainable food production, rural economic growth and nature’s recovery in our country’s history.

“But with public services crumbling and a £22bn fiscal hole that this Government inherited, we have taken difficult decisions.

“The reforms to Agricultural Property Relief ensure that wealthier estates and the most valuable farms pay their fair share to invest in our schools and health services that farmers and families in rural communities rely on.”

A Met Police spokesperson said it was “well prepared” for the protest and would have officers deployed to ensure it passes off “safely, lawfully and in a way that prevents serious disruption”.