The Tories are expecting a pounding at the local elections – but could Labour have the harder job?

Published

1 year ago

April 28, 2024

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Thursday’s local elections have been pencilled in as a day of peril for Rishi Sunak for so long, it’s hard to remember when Tory turbulence – and maybe even a leadership challenge – was not expected after 2 May.

Most council seats up for election were last contested in 2021, the high watermark of Boris Johnson’s political prowess, when the Tories were benefiting from a vaccine bounce.

Since then, the party has plunged in the polls after ploughing through two prime ministerial downfalls.

But in the Politics At Jack And Sam’s podcast, Politico UK editor Jack Blanchard and I explore whether it might be Labour who have the harder job to do if they don’t clean up some of the highest profile races, with Tories winning in long-time Labour areas.

? Listen above then tap here to follow Politics at Jack at Sam’s wherever you get your podcasts ?

Thursday’s local elections see 107 councils, 10 high-profile metro mayors and a parliamentary by-election in Blackpool South.

Unusually, both Tories and Labour are broadly setting their expectations in the same place and, by also studying the work of Sky analyst Professor Michael Thrasher, we’ve been working out what might happen.

They both expect the council elections to see decent Labour seat gains and much bigger Tory losses, with the Tories specifically endorsing Thrasher’s analysis that they could be on course for 500 losses. That’s half the candidates they’re putting up.

It’s worth pointing out that of the 107 councils up, the Conservatives only control 18, so there aren’t many for them to lose outright.

They both say that the metro mayor contests could be the most important races of the night, and they both think it’s fairly likely Ben Houchen will win, meaning the Tories will hold on to the mayoralty of Tees Valley.

Labour deny suggestions they have been pulling resources from the seat, but concede victory will be hard.

West Midlands on a knife edge

Figures in both main parties think the West Midlands metro mayor race is on a knife edge, and that Tory Andy Street will probably win this, but they’re both not sure.

If that happens, it could be down not only to Street’s independent campaign which emphasised differences with Sunak, but also to George Galloway protege the youthful lawyer Akhmed Yakoob who is campaigning on Gaza, splitting the Labour vote.

Labour think they will pick up East Midlands, although while the Tories concur, they hope that their candidate, MP and council leader Ben Bradley, gets at least a decent showing.

Meanwhile, though the new North Yorkshire mayor, which encompasses Rishi Sunak’s seat, will probably go Tory, there are some positive signs for Labour.

I’m told while Labour are hopeful the new North East mayoralty will be taken by Kim McGuinness (who they’re more proud than some candidates), the ex-Labour mayor Jamie Driscoll, who was suspended, is a wild card that could disrupt the party’s efforts.

Both parties expect the Tories to lose the parliamentary seat of Blackpool South.

So what if this is the outcome – as both parties seem to be signalling?

There’s no doubt the results will be bad for the Tories, losing so many foot soldiers. Maybe the odd council.

But one of the biggest consequences in this election cycle is how Tories in parliament respond to this, and what they decide to do about it – if anything.

If they hang on to Tees Valley and/or West Midlands, they can claim some Red Wall success. Even if those candidates had campaigns very independent of Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives.

Rebels are gearing up

The rebels are gearing up with their 100 day “policy blitz” plan – they’ve said that to me – with or probably without Rishi Sunak, but I think they know this might not being the moment they hoped.

If both Street and Houchen win – I don’t think the rebels think there’s a chance letters go in, even though the rebels still think Tories will get annihilated at the general election.

Remember, you need 53 MPs to send letters of no confidence to Sir Graham Brady, and they’ve got two publicly.

Then there’s Labour. Labour will do well objectively, but again, there are sky-high expectations given recent polling.

Labour this year have done a more concerted effort on expectation management than I’ve seen in years ahead of this election, and they’ve told us very plainly that they were going to concentrate in the East Midlands, West Midlands and Tees Valley.

And that the mayors are the best guide to what’s going on.

They add that they’re doing this for the very simple reason there are lots of Parliamentary seats in the same geographical area, so you get double bubble – you’re campaigning for the GE too.

But now they now expect to lose one, maybe two of those races, Tees and West Midlands and there could be a decent Tory share of the vote in a third, the East Midlands.

So that doesn’t feel that great against what they were pointing to a few weeks ago.

Then look at council seats. If they gain net 350 seats – that’s the same improvement as last year, and not necessarily on course for Blair-style wins seen in some polling recently.

And then there will be the National Equivalent Vote, coming at the weekend from Thrasher and Rallings, which takes the local results and projects those voting figures into a nationwide vote estimate.

This had Labour on 30% in 2021, when they didn’t do so well, then 35% in 2022 and 36% last year. Does it go up? By how much?

Labour say they’re sure they will have a good story to tell whatever happens. But oddly, they may have the harder job, which is perhaps why some Labour figures are more jittery than their Tory counterparts.

Let’s see if that remains true in a week.

The full list of metro mayor elections and candidates

Tees Valley: Ben Houchen (Conservative), Chris McEwan (Labour), Simon Thorley (Lib Dems)

West Midlands: Andy Street Conservative, Richard Parker Labour, Sunny Virk Lib Dems, Siobhan Bridget Harper-Nunes Green Party, Elaine Ruth Williams Reform UK, Akhmed Yakoob Independent.

North East: Guy Renner-Thompson Conservative, Kim McGuinness Labour, Aidan King (Lib Dems), Andrew Gray (Green), Paul Donaghy (Reform UK), Jamie Driscoll (Independent)

East Midlands: Ben Bradley (Conservative), Claire Ward (Labour), Helen Tamblyn-Saville (Lib Dems), Frank Adlington-Stringer (Green), Alan Graves (Reform UK), Matt Relf (Independent)

Greater Manchester: Laura Evans (Conservative), Andy Burnham (Labour), Jake Austin (Lib Dems), Hannah Katherine Spencer (Green), Dan Barker (Reform UK), Nick Buckley (Independent)

Liverpool City: Jade Louise Marsden (Conservative), Steve Rotheram (Labour), Rob McAllister-Bell (Lib Dems), Tom Crone (Green), Ian Edward Smith (Independent)

South Yorkshire: Nick Allen (Conservative), Oliver James Coppard (Labour), Hannah Kitching (Lib Dems), Douglas James Preston Johnson (Green), David Bettney (Social Democratic Party)

West Yorkshire: Arnold Eric Craven (Conservative), Tracy Lynn Brabin (Labour), Stewart Golton (Lib Dems), Andrew Varah Cooper (Green), Bob Buxton (Yorkshire Party), Jonathan Richard Tilt (Independent)

York and North Yorkshire: Keane Charles Duncan (Conservative), David Skaith (Labour), Felicity Claire Cunliffe-Lister (Lib Dems), Kevin Foster (Green), Paul Haslam (Independent), Keith Graham Tordoff (Independent)

London: Susan Mary Hall (Conservative), Sadiq Khan (Labour), Rob Blackie (Lib Dems), Zoe Garbett (Green), Howard Cox (Reform UK), Amy Gallagher (Social Democratic Party), Count Binface (Count Binface for Mayor of London), Brian Benedict Rose (London Real Party), Femy Amin (Animal Welfare Party), Nick Scanlon (Britain First), Natalie Denise Campbell (Independent), Tarun Ghulati (Independent), Andreas Christoffi Michli (Independent)

Politics

VanEck to launch Avalanche ecosystem fund

Published

3 hours ago

May 21, 2025

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VanEck to launch Avalanche ecosystem fund

VanEck plans to launch a private digital assets fund in June targeting tokenized Web3 projects built on the Avalanche blockchain network, the asset manager said in a statement shared with Cointelegraph.

The VanEck PurposeBuilt Fund, available only to accredited investors, aims to invest in liquid tokens and venture-backed projects across Web3 sectors, including gaming, financial services, payments, and artificial intelligence.

Idle capital will be deployed into Avalanche (AVAX) real-world asset (RWA) products, including tokenized money market funds, VanEck said.

The fund will be managed by the team behind VanEck’s Digital Assets Alpha Fund (DAAF), which oversees more than $100 million in net assets as of May 21.

“The next wave of value in crypto will come from real businesses, not more infrastructure,” Pranav Kanade, portfolio manager for DAAF, said in a statement.

Thematic crypto funds

VanEck’s PurposeBuilt Fund is the latest in a series of funds from the asset manager and rivals designed to offer exposure to projects and companies in fast-growing segments of Web3.

On May 14, VanEck launched a new actively managed exchange-traded fund (ETF) to invest in stocks and financial instruments providing exposure to the digital economy.

In April, VanEck launched another ETF investing in a passive index of companies operating in the crypto space.

Asset managers such as VanEck are requesting the US Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) permission to list upward of 70 crypto ETFs.

The wave of ETF filings is in response to US President Donald Trump softening the agency’s regulatory stance toward crypto after Trump took office in January.

Avalanche RWA ecosystem

Avalanche has emerged as a hub for real-world assets (RWAs) and other institutional-oriented crypto projects.

Its interrelated networks, called subnets, allow institutions to run Ethereum-style smart contracts in a controlled environment. On May 16, Solv Protocol launched a yield-bearing Bitcoin token on the Avalanche blockchain, targeting institutional investors

Avalanche has around $1.5 billion in total value locked (TVL) as of May 21, according to data from DefiLlama.

“We’re seeing a shift away from speculative hype toward real utility and sustainable token economies,” John Nahas, chief business officer at Ava Labs, said in a statement.

Magazine: Danger signs for Bitcoin as retail abandons it to institutions — Sky Wee

Politics

US lawmaker reintroduces bill amid pushback on Trump’s crypto ties

Published

4 hours ago

May 21, 2025

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<div>US lawmaker reintroduces bill amid pushback on Trump's crypto ties</div>

A Democratic representative in the US Congress will support a blockchain bill at a time when many left-leaning lawmakers are blocking crypto-related pieces of legislation due to concerns with President Donald Trump’s potential conflicts of interest.

In a May 21 notice, Minnesota Representative Tom Emmer said he had reintroduced the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act, a bill that “solidifies that digital asset developers and service providers that do not custody consumer funds are not money transmitters.”Emmer, a Republican, said Democratic Representative Ritchie Torres would co-lead the bill, making it a bipartisan effort in Congress.

“The Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act reflects a thoughtful, bipartisan effort to get digital asset policy right,” said Torres. “While similar language was voted down in markup last Congress, we took that feedback seriously and returned with a smarter, sharper framework that protects innovation without compromising oversight.”

Cryptocurrencies, Law, Politics, Congress — *Reintroducing the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act on May 21. Source:* *Tom Emmer*

Representatives of advocacy organizations, including the Crypto Council for Innovation, Solana Policy Institute, Digital Chamber, Coin Center, DeFi Education Fund and Blockchain Association, said they would support the proposed blockchain regulatory bill. It was unclear whether Emmer and Torres had a majority of votes in the House of Representatives for the legislation to pass.

Torres has supported many bills and policies favorable to the crypto industry since assuming office in 2021. Together with Emmer, he has led the Congressional Crypto Caucus to advance crypto-friendly policies in the House since March.

A bipartisan blockchain bill amid memecoin concerns?

Other Democratic House members, including Representative Maxine Waters, have suggested they intend to block any legislation related to crypto and blockchain until Republicans address Trump’s connections to the industry, such as his family’s stake in World Liberty Financial and his TRUMP memecoin. The president is planning to host a dinner with up to 220 people holding the most significant amounts of his memecoin on May 22.

Cointelegraph reached out to Torres’ office for comment but had not received a response at the time of publication.

Magazine: Trump’s crypto ventures raise conflict of interest, insider trading questions

Politics

Interest groups, lawmakers to protest Trump’s memecoin dinner

Published

8 hours ago

May 21, 2025

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<div>Interest groups, lawmakers to protest Trump's memecoin dinner</div>

Democratic leaning organizations and members of Congress have announced plans to protest what they describe as the sale of access to the office of the US president, in reference to Donald Trump’s memecoin dinner on May 22. The event’s attendees are said to have collectively spent over $100 million for the chance to meet with the US president.

Since Trump’s memecoin project, Official Trump (TRUMP), announced that its top 220 tokenholders would have an opportunity to apply for an exclusive dinner with the president, many leaders in the crypto industry and US lawmakers have criticized the event, saying Trump was opening his office to potential bribery and corruption.

The memecoin dinner prompted some Democratic lawmakers to withdraw support for crypto-related legislation in Congress, including the market structure and stablecoin bills.

“Trump collecting gifts from foreign governments is unconstitutional,” a spokesperson for the consumer advocacy organization Public Citizen, which is planning to protest near the memecoin dinner on May 22, told Cointelegraph. “Collecting foreign government investments through his memecoin is not much better. American foreign policy should not be for sale.”

Washington, Politics, Donald Trump, Memecoin — *Source:* *Public Citizen*

Crypto industry figures such as Tron founder Justin Sun, Kronos Research chief investment officer Vincent Liu, Hyperithm co-CEO Oh Sangrok, and Synthetix founder Kain Warwick are among the tokenholders expected to attend the dinner at the Trump National Golf Club outside Washington, DC. The memecoin project said all applicants had to pass a background check and could not be from a “[Know Your Customer] watchlist country.”

Public Citizen, in partnership with progressive political organization Our Revolution, will hold a rally near the golf club, which Oregon Senator Jeff Merkley is expected to attend. In addition, the Arlington and Loudoun Democrats will be hosting a separate event to urge US officials to “hold [Trump] accountable,” and Democratic leadership in Congress has scheduled two press events on May 22 ahead of the dinner.

“Americans cannot and will not accept President Trump’s view that positions of power exist only to benefit the holder of that power,” Ryan Ruzic, chair of the Loudoun County Democratic Committee, told Cointelegraph. “We have a moral responsibility to speak out against corruption, whatever the result may be.”

Pushback on TRUMP memecoin affected crypto legislation

Some lawmakers initially cited the memecoin dinner and the Trump family’s involvement with the crypto platform World Liberty Financial in opposing passage of the GENIUS Act, a bill to regulate payment stablecoins. World Liberty Financial began issuing its own USD1 stablecoin in March, prompting concerns about Trump’s conflicts of interest. However, the legislation passed a key procedural vote in the Senate on May 19 with support from Democrats, setting the bill up for debate in the chamber.

“Many senators, myself included, have very real concerns about the Trump family’s use of crypto technologies to evade oversight, hide shady financial dealings, and personally profit at the expense of everyday Americans,” said Sen. Mark Warner in a statement before the May 19 vote, adding: “But we cannot allow that corruption to blind us to the broader reality: blockchain technology is here to stay.”

Senator Chris Murphy, who voted against advancing the GENIUS Act, called for bipartisan support in amending the bill to specifically bar a US president from issuing stablecoins. He also called on the White House to release a complete list of attendees to the memecoin dinner, suggesting that some or all of them would “try to get something from the president” in exchange for purchasing the tokens.

Murphy and Senator Elizabeth Warren will attend a press event with representatives for Public Citizen on May 22. California Representative Maxine Waters, ranking member of the US House Financial Services Committee, announced a separate press conference for the same day, with plans to introduce a bill to “block Trump’s memecoin and stop his crypto corruption, once and for all.”

As of May 21, the exact number of attendees to the dinner was unknown. A smaller group of 25 tokenholders also qualified to apply for “VIP tour” and reception — presumably at the White House — with Trump, but the complete list of those planning to attend was also unknown at the time of publication.

Magazine: Trump’s crypto ventures raise conflict of interest, insider trading questions