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What's next for the IPO market

Following a long period of waiting, “the IPO market’s back.”

That’s according to Colin Stewart, Morgan Stanley’s global head of technology equity capital markets. In an interview with CNBC’s “TechCheck” on Monday, Stewart said 10 to 15 more tech companies could go public before the end of 2024, with an even “better year” in store for 2025.

“It’s been a long two and a half years, where we’ve had really nothing,” Stewart said. Recent initial public offerings have priced high and traded well, which “bodes well for the future,” he added.

The lull began in 2022, when soaring inflation and rising interest rates pushed investors out of risk, slashed tech valuations and led many tech companies to delay their plans to go public. It was a sharp contrast to the prior two years, which saw a record number of deals, including some at astronomical revenue multiples.

The IPO market cracked open in September, with the debuts of Instacart and Klaviyo. But the first real signs of momentum came last month, as Reddit became the first IPO for a major social media company since Pinterest in 2019 and data center connectivity chip company Astera Labs rocketed on its first day of trading.

Both stocks remain well above their IPO price, with Astera up about 145% as investors pour money into all things tied to artificial intelligence.

Morgan Stanley was the lead banker on the Reddit and Astera IPOs, positioning itself to collect roughly $37 million in total fees.

Wall Street rival Goldman Sachs led the latest venture-backed tech IPO last week. Rubrik, which develops data management software, jumped 16% in its New York Stock Exchange debut.

Bipul Sinha, CEO, Chairman & Co-Founder of Rubrik Inc., the Microsoft backed cybersecurity software startup, waves a flag while posing with employees during the company’s IPO at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., April 25, 2024.

Brendan Mcdermid | Reuters

Stewart, who’s had a hand in some of the largest offerings of the last few decades, said it usually takes six months to take an IPO to the finish line. That means companies currently considering an IPO are likely to hold off until 2025 to avoid intersecting with the U.S. presidential election in November, he said.

As for valuations, Stewart said the market has retreated from the peak days of 2021, and multiples in software and other parts of technology are now back to levels seen in 2018 and 2019. Stewart described 2021 as an “amazing year” but also “exhausting.”

“What’s happened in the last six to 12 months is that the market has gotten more comfortable with paying for growth again,” Stewart said. “We’re not back to the levels of 2021, but we are getting a fair price for growth. And I think at those prices, you’re starting to see companies say, ‘You know, it’s actually not bad to be a public company.'”

Still, the most valuable, late-stage companies have yet to hit the exits. That list includes Elon Musk’s SpaceX along with Stripe and Databricks.

While Stewart said he’d “love to take them public,” he acknowledged that the challenge for the bigger names is “they’ve got scale, they’ve got growth, investors are giving them lots of capital” and they’re investing toward the future.

“Right now the IPO is not on their near-term horizon, unfortunately,” he said. “But when it does come they’ll be blockbuster.”

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Elon Musk ratchets up attacks on Navarro as Tesla shares slump for fourth day

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Elon Musk ratchets up attacks on Navarro as Tesla shares slump for fourth day

Elon Musk (L), and Peter Navarro (R).

Reuters

As Tesla shares plummeted for a fourth straight day, CEO Elon Musk let loose on President Donald Trump’s top trade advisor Peter Navarro.

Musk, the world’s richest person, started going after Navarro over the weekend, posting on X that a “PhD in econ from Harvard is a bad thing, not a good thing,” a reference to Navarro’s degree. Whatever subtlety remained at the beginning of the week has since vanished.

On Tuesday, Musk wrote that “Navarro is truly a moron,” noting that his comments about Tesla being a “car assembler,” as much are “demonstrably false.” Musk called Navarro “dumber than a sack of bricks,” before later apologizing to bricks. Musk also called Navarro “dangerously dumb.”

Musk’s attacks on Navarro represent the most public spat between members of President Trump’s inner circle since the term began in January, and show that the steep tariffs announced last week on more than 180 countries and territories don’t have universal approval in the administration.

When asked about the feud in a briefing on Tuesday, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said, “Look, these are obviously two individuals who have very different views on trade and on tariffs.”

“Boys will be boys, and we will let their public sparring continue,” she said.

For Musk, whose younger brother Kimbal — a restaurant owner, entrepreneur and Tesla board member — has joined in on the action, the name-calling appears to be tied to business conditions.

Tesla’s stock is down 22% in the past four trading sessions and 45% for the year. Tesla has lost more tha $585 billion in value since the calendar turned, equaling tens of billions of dollars in paper losses for Musk, who is also CEO of SpaceX and the owner of xAI and social network X.

Even before President Trump detailed his plan for widespread tariffs, he’d already placed a 25% tariff on vehicles not assembled in the U.S. Many analysts said Tesla could withstand those tariffs better than competitors because its vehicles sold in the U.S. are assembled domestically.

But the company’s production costs are poised to increase because of the tariffs on materials and parts from foreign suppliers. Canada and Mexico are among the leading sources of U.S. steel imports, and Canada is the nation’s largest supplier of aluminum, while China and Mexico are home to major suppliers of printed circuit boards to the automotive industry.

At a recent an event hosted by right-wing Italian Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini, Musk said, “Both Europe and the United States should move, ideally, in my view, to a zero-tariff situation, effectively creating a free trade zone between Europe and North America.”

Musk, whose view on trade relations with Europe stands in stark contrast to the policies implemented by the president, has a vested interest in the region. Tesla has a large car factory outside of Berlin, and the European Commission previously turned to SpaceX for launches.

Even before the tariffs, Tesla’s business was faltering. Last week, the company reported a 13% year-over-year decline in first-quarter deliveries, missing analysts’ estimates. That report that landed days after Tesla’s stock price wrapped up its worst quarter since 2022.

Musk, who spent roughly $290 billion to help return Trump to the White House, is now leading the Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, which has slashed costs, eliminated regulations and cut tens of thousands of federal jobs. In the first quarter, Tesla was hit with waves of protests, boycotts and some criminal activity that targeted vehicles and facilities in response to Musk’s political rhetoric and his work in the White House.

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Apple’s 4-day slide puts Microsoft back on top as most valuable company

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Apple's 4-day slide puts Microsoft back on top as most valuable company

Satya Nadella, CEO of Microsoft, laughs as he attends a session at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, on Jan. 23, 2020.

Denis Balibouse | Reuters

Apple‘s 23% plunge over the past four trading sessions has again turned Microsoft into the world’s most valuable public company.

As of Tuesday’s close, Microsoft is worth $2.64 trillion, while Apple’s market cap stands at $2.59 trillion.

While the market broadly is getting hammered by President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff plan, Apple is getting hit the hardest among tech’s megacap companies due to the iPhone maker’s reliance on China.

The Nasdaq is down 13% over the past four trading days, as President Trump’s decision to impose tariffs on imports from more than 100 countries has sparked fears of a recession brought on by rising prices. UBS analysts on Monday predicted that the price of the iPhone 16 Pro Max could jump as much as $350 in the U.S.

Both Apple and Microsoft, along with chipmaker Nvidia, were previously valued at upward of $3 trillion before the recent sell-off.

In January, Microsoft issued disappointing revenue guidance. Nevertheless, last week, as Jefferies analysts reduced their price targets on many software stocks, they wrote Microsoft was among the “companies who we view as more insulated” from tariff uncertainty.

Microsoft also had the highest market capitalization of any public company in early 2024, but Apple soon reclaimed the title.

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Tech, semiconductor stocks bounce on tariff optimism, Nvidia jumps 7%

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Tech, semiconductor stocks bounce on tariff optimism, Nvidia jumps 7%

Technology stocks bounced Tuesday after three rocky trading sessions, spurred by rising optimism that President Donald Trump could potentially negotiate tariff deals with world leaders.

Nvidia led the Magnificent Seven group’s gains, rallying about 7%. Meta Platforms, Amazon, Tesla, Apple and Microsoft jumped at least 4% each. Alphabet rose about 3%.

The sector is coming off a wild trading session after speculation that the White House could potentially delay tariffs fueled volatile swings. Alphabet, Meta Platforms, Amazon and Nvidia finished higher, while Apple, Microsoft and Tesla posted losses.

Trump’s wide-sweeping tariff plans have sparked violent turbulence over the last three trading sessions. Trading volume on Monday hit its highest in nearly two decades. Technology stocks gyrated after the Nasdaq Composite posted its worst week in five years and the Magnificent Seven group lost $1.8 trillion in market value over two trading sessions.

Semiconductor stocks also rebounded Tuesday, with the VanEck Semiconductor ETF jumping more than 5% to build on a more than 2% gain from the previous session. Advanced Micro Devices, Lam Research and Micron Technology jumped about 6%.

Chipmakers were excluded from the recent tariffs, but have come under pressure on worries that higher duties could diminish demand for products they are used in and slow the economy. The sector is also expected to see tariffs further down the road.

Elsewhere, Broadcom surged 9% after announcing a $10 billion share buyback plan through the end of the year. Marvell Technology also bounced more than 9% after agreeing to sell its auto ethernet business for $2.5 billion in cash to Infineon Technologies.

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