Tesla (TSLA) surges on reports China is approving Full Self-Driving deployment

Published

7 months ago

April 29, 2024

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Tesla’s stock (TSLA) is surging this morning on several reports that China is going to approve the automaker’s deployment of its Full Self-Driving package in the country.

The Full Self-Driving package is a promise that Tesla has been selling to its vehicle owners since 2016: that promise is that all new vehicles are equipped with the hardware necessary to become self-driving and it will become that through future software updates.

In the meantime, the package includes additional ADAS feature, like city-street driving where the car handles all the driving, but it needs to be supervised by the driver at all times.

However, this is only available in North America right now. That’s partly due to it having been first designed for the market and it is not completely ready to be deployed elsewhere, but also because regulations in some markets don’t yet approve of the system.

That includes the world’s largest auto market: China.

New reports claim that this is about to change. Tesla CEO Elon Musk has been on a visit to China over the last few days and met with Premier Li Qiang.

Now, Bloomberg reports Tesla was able to secure a deal to get approval for its Full Self-Driving deployment in the country:

The US carmaker was granted the approval under certain conditions, according to a person with knowledge of the matter, who asked not to be identified because details of all the criteria aren’t clear. Tesla did manage to clear two of the most important hurdles: reaching a mapping and navigation deal with Chinese tech giant Baidu Inc., and meeting requirements for how it handles data-security and privacy issues.

Tesla has had issues with data management in China for a few years. The company’s vehicles were even banned by Chinese authorities at times in certain locations due to fear of spying related to the use of cameras on Tesla’s vehicles and its data management.

Several Chinese media are reporting today that this issue has now been solved.

Combined that with a conditional approval by regulators and a deal with China’s Baidu for mapping, which was already partnering with Tesla on maps in China, Tesla appears to be on track for a deployment of FSD in China.

Electrek’s Take

This is understandably making Tesla’s stock surge because after the US, Tesla has more vehicles in China than anywhere else, and that means more potential FSD customers than anywhere else.

If it can deploy its Supervised FSD in the market, it can recognize more revenue from those who bought the package and sell more of them.

It’s unclear how many people in China have already bought FSD, but it’s not likely many because of the lack of approval for the system – although Tesla does sit on more than $3 billion in unrecognized revenue primarily due to FSD. Some of that is from Chinese customers.

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Environment

Elon Musk Tapped to Lead New ‘DOGE’ Department—Despite the Government Already Having One for Efficiency

Published

3 hours ago

November 13, 2024

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Elon Musk Tapped to Lead New ‘DOGE’ Department—Despite the Government Already Having One for Efficiency

Tesla CEO Elon Musk is to officially join Trump’s administration as the co-head of the new US Department of Government Efficiency – a second federal department with the goal of making government spending more efficient.

You can’t get more ironic than that.

Throughout the elections, Musk, who is already CEO of Tesla, and SpaceX, a well as the defacto head of X, xAI, Neuralink, and the Boring Company, has been floating the idea to add to his workload by joining the Trump’s administration to lead a new department aimed at making the federal government more efficient.

He has been calling it the “Department of Government Efficiency”, which spells out ‘DOGE’, a meme that Musk appears to enjoy.

Well, now Trump appears to want to be going through with this idea.

He announced the new department and Musk as head, along with Vivek Ramaswamy, in a statement today:

I am pleased to announce that the Great Elon Musk, working in conjunction with American Patriot Vivek Ramaswamy, will lead the Department of Government Efficiency (“DOGE”). Together, these two wonderful Americans will pave the way for my Administration to dismantle Government Bureaucracy, slash excess regulations, cut wasteful expenditures, and restructure Federal Agencies – Essential to the “Save America” Movement. “This will send shockwaves through the system, and anyone involved in Government waste, which is a lot of people!” stated Mr. Musk.

What’s most ironic is that there’s already a federal department with the goal of cutting government waste and ensuring efficiency: the Government Accountability Office (GAO).

The GAO’s main objectives are:

auditing agency operations to determine whether federal funds are being spent efficiently and effectively;
investigating allegations of illegal and improper activities;
reporting on how well government programs and policies are meeting their objectives;
performing policy analyses and outlining options for congressional consideration;
issuing legal decisions and opinions;
advising Congress and the heads of executive agencies about ways to make government more efficient and effective

It sounds similar to what Musk described when talking about his DOGE, but Trump hasn’t gone into many details other than it will “cut waste.”

He also has a confusing message as he compares the initiative, which is supposed to cut government spending, to “The Manhattan project”, a massive and expensive government project.

Trump said that DOGE will help the government “drive large scale structural reform”:

It will become, potentially, “The Manhattan Project” of our time. Republican politicians have dreamed about the objectives of “DOGE” for a very long time. To drive this kind of drastic change, the Department of Government Efficiency will provide advice and guidance from outside of Government, and will partner with the White House and Office of Management & Budget to drive large scale structural reform, and create an entrepreneurial approach to Government never seen before.

The statement also noted that DOGE will only operate until July 4, 2026.

Musk has previously claimed that he could cut at least $2 trillion dollars of the $6.5 trillion dollar US federal budget.

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Environment

Oil could plunge to $40 in 2025 if OPEC unwinds voluntary production cuts, analysts say

Published

3 hours ago

November 13, 2024

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Oil could plunge to in 2025 if OPEC unwinds voluntary production cuts, analysts say

A pump jack in Midland, Texas, US, on Thursday, Oct. 3, 2024.

Anthony Prieto | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Oil prices may see a drastic fall in the event that oil alliance OPEC+ unwinds its existing output cuts, said market watchers who are predicting a bearish year ahead for crude.

“There is more fear about 2025’s oil prices than there has been since years — any year I can remember, since the Arab Spring,” said Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis at OPIS, an oil price reporting agency.

“You could get down to $30 or $40 a barrel if OPEC unwound and didn’t have any kind of real agreement to rein in production. They’ve seen their market share really dwindle through the years,” Kloza added.

A decline to $40 a barrel would mean around a 40% erasure of current crude prices. Global benchmark Brent is currently trading at $72 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures are around $68 per barrel.

Oil prices year-to-date

Given that oil demand growth next year probably won’t be much more than 1 million barrels a day, a full unwinding of OPEC+ supply cuts in 2025 would “undoubtedly see a very steep slide in crude prices, possibly toward $40 a barrel,” Henning Gloystein, head of energy, climate and resources at Eurasia Group, told CNBC.

Similarly, MST Marquee’s senior energy analyst Saul Kavonic posited that should OPEC+ unwind cuts without regard to demand, it would “effectively amount to a price war over market share that could send oil to lows not seen since Covid.”

However, the alliance is more likely to opt for a gradual unwinding early next year, compared to a full scale and immediate one, the analysts said.

Should the producers group proceed with their production plan, the market surplus could nearly double.

Martoccia Francesco

Energy strategist at Citi

The oil cartel has been exercising discipline in maintaining its voluntary output cuts, to the point of extending them.

In September, OPEC+ postponed plans to begin gradually rolling back on the 2.2 million barrels per day of voluntary cuts by two months in an effort to stem the slide of oil prices. The 2.2 million bpd cut, which was implemented over the second and third quarters, had been due to expire at the end of September.

At the start of this month, the oil cartel again decided to delay the planned oil output increase by another month to the end of December.

Oil prices have been weighed by a sluggish post-Covid recovery in demand from China, the world’s second-largest economy and leading crude oil importer. In its monthly report released Tuesday, OPEC lowered its 2025 global oil demand growth forecast from 1.6 million barrels per day to 1.5 million barrels per day.

The pressured prices were also conflagrated by a perceivably oversupplied market, especially as key oil producers outside the OPEC alliance like the U.S., Canada, Guyana and Brazil are also planning to add supply, Gloystein highlighted.

Bearish year ahead for oil

The market consensus is that there’ll be a “substantial” oil stock build next year, said Citibank energy strategist Martoccia Francesco.

“Should the producers group proceed with their production plan, the market surplus could nearly double… reaching as much as 1.6 million barrels per day,” said Francesco.

Even if OPEC+ doesn’t unwind the cuts, the future ofl prices is still looking break. Citi analysts expect Brent price to average $60 per barrel next year.

Further fueling the bearish outlook is the incoming administration of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, whose return is associated by some with a potential trade war, said analysts who spoke to CNBC.

“If we do get a trade war — and a lot of economists think that a trade war is possible, and particularly against China — we could see much, much lower prices,” said OPIS’ Kloza.

Trump has also touted a “drill baby drill” policy for U.S. producers, vowing to cut energy prices in half.

For that to happen to retail gasoline prices, oil would need to drop to “below $40” per barrel, said Matt Smith, Kpler’s lead oil analyst.

Right now, retail gasoline prices are at a “sweet spot” at $3 per gallon, where consumers do not feel the pinch and input prices are still sufficiently high for producers, Smith added.