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The cost of bread, biscuits and beer could increase this year due to the impact of the unusually wet autumn and winter on UK harvests.

Research suggests that production of wheat, oats, barley and oilseed rape could drop by four million tonnes (17.5%) compared with 2023.

The wet weather has resulted in lower levels of planting, while flooding and storms over winter caused farmers more losses.

The predictions come just as the rate of price increases on many food items begins to slow as inflation falls.

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The Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) analysed forecasts from the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHBD) and government yield data.

It found a “real risk” of beer, biscuits and bread becoming more expensive if the poor harvest increases costs for producers, according to its lead analyst Tom Lancaster.

Beer prices could be affected because the wet weather is still disrupting the planting of spring crops such as barley, the ECIU said.

And potatoes might also see a price hike in the coming months, with growers warning of a major shortage in the autumn due to persistent wet weather.

Planting of this year’s potato crop has been delayed across much of northern Europe.

“It’s had a massive impact on us,” said Lincolnshire farmer Colin Chappell.

“We went through the winter with virtually nothing viable drilled, and while it’s now dry enough to plant some fields some of them are so bad I don’t think they’ll get drilled this year. The situation is very hit and miss.”

The National Farmers’ Union (NFU) said recently that extreme weather was one of the biggest dangers to UK food security.

Warmer and wetter winters similar are predicted to become more common as the climate warms.

Pic: iStock
Image:
Trouble planting barley could feed through to a more costly pint. Pic: iStock

Drop in production could be more than five million tonnes

The total drop in production could even be more than five million tonnes (21.2%) when compared with the average harvest for 2015-2023.

Wheat production could be particularly hard hit, according to the research, with an estimated fall of 26.5% compared with last year.

It’s because the milling wheat used for bread has higher quality requirements that will be harder for farmers to achieve with wet weather.

The owner of Kingsmill and Ryvita, Associated British Foods, warned last week of potential price hikes if the cost of grains in the UK aren’t offset by bigger harvests abroad.

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The ECIU’s Tom Lancaster said the government’s green farming schemes are vital in “helping farmers to invest in their soils to allow them to recover faster from both floods and droughts”.

With half of food coming from abroad, he said foreign farmers would also need support.

“Moving faster to net zero emissions is the only guaranteed way to limit these impacts and maintain our food security,” he added.

William Kendall, the farmer behind Green & Blacks chocolate, said “regenerative farming methods” were also important as they “greatly enhance the soil’s capacity to hold water and therefore prevent saturation”.

“Not only does this mean better crops, produced at a lower cost for the farmer,” he said, “but it ensures that the chances of the flash flooding downstream we have seen this winter are greatly diminished”.

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Thousands of jobs to go at Bosch in latest blow to German car industry

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Thousands of jobs to go at Bosch in latest blow to German car industry

Bosch will cut up to 5,500 jobs as it struggles with slow electric vehicle sales and competition from Chinese imports.

It is the latest blow to the European car industry after Volkswagen and Ford announced thousands of job cuts in the last month.

Cheaper Chinese-made electric cars have made it trickier for European manufacturers to remain competitive while demand has weakened for the driver assistance and automated driving solutions made by Bosch.

The company said a slower-than-expected transition to electric, software-controlled vehicles was partly behind the cuts, which are being made in the car parts division.

Demand for new cars has fallen overall in Germany as the economy has slowed, with recession only narrowly avoided in recent years.

The final number of job cuts has yet to be agreed with employee representatives. Bosch said they would be carried out in a “socially responsible” way.

About half the job reductions would be at locations in Germany.

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Bosch, the world’s biggest car parts supplier, has already committed to not making layoffs in Germany until 2027 for many employees, and until 2029 for a subsection of its workforce. It said this pact would remain in place.

The job cuts would be made over approximately the next eight years.

The Gerlingen site near Stuttgart will lose some 3,500 jobs by the end of 2027, reducing the workforce developing car software, advanced driver assistance and automated driving technology.

Other losses will be at the Hildesheim site near Hanover, where 750 jobs will go by end the of 2032, and the plant in Schwaebisch Gmund, which will lose about 1,300 roles between 2027 and 2030.

Bosch’s decision follows Volkswagen’s announcement last month it would shut at least three factories in Germany and lay off tens of thousands of staff.

Its remaining German plants are also set to be downsized.

While Germany has been hit hard by cuts, it is not bearing the brunt alone.

Earlier this week, Ford announced plans to cut 4,000 jobs across Europe – including 800 in the UK – as the industry fretted over weak electric vehicle (EV) sales that could see firms fined more for missing government targets.

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Cambridge college puts O2 arena lease up for sale

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Cambridge college puts O2 arena lease up for sale

Cambridge University’s wealthiest college is putting the long-term lease of London’s O2 arena up for sale.

Sky News has learnt that Trinity College has instructed property advisers to begin sounding out prospective investors about a deal.

Trinity, which ranks among Britain’s biggest landowners, acquired the site in 2009 for a reported £24m.

The O2, which shrugged off its ‘white elephant’ status in the aftermath of its disastrous debut in 2000, has since become one of the world’s leading entertainment venues.

Operated by Anschutz Entertainment Group, it has played host to a wide array of music, theatrical and sporting events over nearly a quarter of a century.

The opportunity to acquire the 999-year lease is likely to appeal to long-term income investment funds, with real estate funds saying they expected it to fetch tens of millions of pounds.

Trinity College bought the lease from Lend Lease and Quintain, the property companies which had taken control of the Millennium Dome site in 2002 for nothing.

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The college was founded by Henry VIII in 1546 and has amassed a vast property portfolio.

It was unclear on Friday why it had decided to call in advisers at this point to undertake a sale process.

Trinity College Cambridge did not respond to two requests for comment.

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Surprise fall in retail sales a sign economy is slowing

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Surprise fall in retail sales a sign economy is slowing

Budget fears and unseasonably warm weather led to consumers spending far less than expected last month, according to official figures.

In a sign of a slowing economy, retail sales fell a sharp 0.7%, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said.

The fall was larger than expected. A drop of 0.3% was forecasted by economists polled by the Reuters news agency.

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Clothing stores were particularly affected, where sales fell by 3.1% over the month as October temperatures remained high, putting shoppers off winter purchases.

Retailers across the board, however, reported consumers held back on spending ahead of the budget, the ONS added.

Just a month earlier, in September, spending rose by 0.1%.

Despite the October fall, the ONS pointed out that the trend is for sales increases on a yearly and three-monthly basis and for them to be lower than before the COVID-19 pandemic.

Retail sales figures are significant as household consumption measured by the data is the largest expenditure across the UK economy.

The data can also help track how consumers feel about their financial position and the economy more broadly.

Another signal of a slowing economy was the latest growth figures which showed a smaller-than-expected GDP (gross domestic product) measurement.

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Business owners worried after budget

Consumer confidence could be bouncing back

Also released on Friday was news of a rise in consumer confidence in the weeks following the budget and the US election.

Market research company GfK’s long-running consumer confidence index “jumped” in November, the company said, as people intended to make Black Friday purchases.

It noted that inflation has yet to be tamed with people still feeling acute cost-of-living pressures.

It will take time for the UK’s new government to deliver on its promise of change, it added.

A quirk in the figures

Economic research firm Pantheon Macro said the dates included in the ONS’s retail sales figures could have distorted the headline figure.

The half-term break, during which spending typically increases, was excluded from the monthly statistics as the cut-off point was 26 October.

With cold weather gripping the UK this week clothing sales are likely to rise as delayed winter clothing purchases are made, Pantheon added.

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