All but one NHL team will end the season on a bitter note, as there can be only one Stanley Cup champion. But on Saturday, we could have our very first playoff elimination of the 2025 playoffs.

The Ottawa Senators are on the brink heading into Saturday’s game. Despite taking the heavily favored Toronto Maple Leafs to overtime twice in a row, the Atlantic Division champs have scored the game winner each time in the extra session. Can the Senators win one in front of the home crowd to extend the series to five games?

Elsewhere in the Atlantic bracket, the Florida Panthers won both of the first two games in the Tampa Bay Lightning‘s building. Will this be a shorter series than many expected? And out West, the Minnesota Wild will look to extend their shocking series lead over the Vegas Golden Knights, and the Clash of the Western Titans continues in the Centennial State, as the Colorado Avalanche look to even things up with the Dallas Stars.

Read on for game previews with statistical insights from ESPN Research, recaps of what went down in Friday’s games, and the Three Stars of Friday Night from Arda Öcal.

Matchup notes

Tampa Bay Lightning at Florida Panthers
Game 3 (FLA leads 2-0) | 1 p.m. ET | TBS

Having served his suspension for performance-enhancing substances, Panthers defenseman Aaron Ekblad is eligible to return for this game. The well-rounded blueliner skated 23:30 per game during the regular season, scoring three goals and 30 assists in 56 games.

The Panthers have another defenseman who has been delivering this postseason; Nate Schmidt scored a goal in Games 1 and 2, becoming the first defenseman in franchise history with two game-winning goals in a single postseason — and they’re only two games in!

All eyes will be on the status of Aleksander Barkov, who was knocked out of Game 2 via a hit from Brandon Hagel; Hagel was assessed a five-minute major penalty for the play and suspended for Game 3.

Tampa Bay needs its stars and its scoring depth to get rolling to charge back into this series, with just two goals total in two games. Goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy has not been up to his typical, superhuman standards thus far, allowing seven goals on 39 shots (.821 save percentage).

In Stanley Cup playoff history, teams that start 2-0 in a best-of-seven series have won 86% of the time; that number rises to 98% if a team starts 3-0.

Vegas Golden Knights at Minnesota Wild
Game 4 (MIN leads 2-1) | 4 p.m. ET | TBS

If nothing else, this series has been a unique one from a starting-time perspective; each of the first four games will have had a different scheduled start time once the puck is dropped Saturday — 10 p.m. ET for Game 1, 11 p.m. ET for Game 2, 9 p.m. ET for Game 3 and 4 p.m. ET for this one.

Most observers didn’t believe the Wild were going to win this series. Nor did many predict that Minnesota players would be all over the scoring leaderboard midway through Round 1. Kirill Kaprizov is tied for the playoff scoring lead with Adrian Kempe and Cam Fowler (seven points), and is tied with teammate Matt Boldy for the goal-scoring lead, with four. The current playoff assists leader? Wild blueliner Jared Spurgeon.

This has been an uncharacteristically rough opening round for Adin Hill. He’s allowed 10 goals on 57 shots, generating a .825 save percentage and 3.78 goals-against average. Those rates were .932 and 2.17, respectively, in Hill’s 16 games played during the Knights’ 2023 Stanley Cup run.

While “Playoff” Tomas Hertl has shown up this series — to the tune of two goals and an assist — some of the Knights’ other offensive standbys have been quiet. Jack Eichel, Mark Stone and Ivan Barbashev — who combined for 212 points in the regular season — all have a goose egg thus far.

Toronto Maple Leafs at Ottawa Senators
Game 4 (TOR leads 3-0) | 7 p.m. ET | TBS

The Maple Leafs have been led by a consistently strong performance of their Core Four of Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander and John Tavares; the quartet leads Toronto in scoring through three games. Perhaps a narrative is being rewritten before our eyes, after years of playoff disappointment for that group?

One specific area where Toronto has been dominant is the power play; their 55.6% conversion rate is tops in the league this postseason (and makes up, somewhat, for a penalty kill that is just 77.8% effective).

The Senators have had five different goal scorers this series, including Brady Tkachuk, who has been giving his all in his first playoff experience. Ottawa’s captain has two goals — and four penalty minutes, as he has kept himself in the mix whenever the action has gotten rowdier.

Will Ottawa stick with Linus Ullmark in goal for Game 4? The veteran has an .815 save percentage through the first three games — and an .874 mark in his postseason career.

Dallas Stars at Colorado Avalanche
Game 4 (DAL leads 2-1) | 9:30 p.m. ET | TBS

Game 3 was all about the return of Avalanche captain Gabriel Landeskog after an absence of 1,032 days. Landeskog skated 13:16 in the game, but did not record a point or a shot on goal.

While other teams are generating historic numbers on the power play this postseason, the Avs have struggled to a 15.4% conversion rate (fourth worst). This is in stark contrast to the regular season, when the Avs’ 24.8% rate was eighth in the league.

Tyler Seguin‘s overtime goal sealed the deal for Dallas in Game 3. it was just the second OT game winner in his career, after a span of 13 years (April 22, 2012).

The other good news on the Dallas front is that Mikko Rantanen — former Av, who was acquired on March 7 — finally picked up his first point of the series, an assist on the OT game winner. Have the floodgates opened?

Arda’s three stars from Friday night

1. The Oilers-Kings series
LA up 2-1 | 30 goals in three games

The first three games have been bonkers. Game 1 almost had an all-timer comeback, then the Kings rocked Edmonton in Game 2, while Game 3 saw multiple lead changes, quick back-to-back goals, a failed coaches challenge by L.A. on an Edmonton goal — which led to an Oilers’ power-play goal to take the lead. Just incredible.

Nemec scored the overtime winner in Newark to win the game for the Devils over the Canes — and avoid going down 0-3 in the series. This came after stints in the AHL this season, and being a healthy scratch earlier in the series.

“Goal” Caufield had a goal and an assist in Montreal’s emphatic 6-3 win over Washington in Game 3.

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Cole Caufield scores with a one-timer for Montreal

Cole Caufield scores on a one-timer to give the Canadiens the lead late in the second period.

Friday’s scores

Montreal Canadiens 6, Washington Capitals 3
WSH leads 2-1

The Bell Centre was electric for the Canadiens’ first home game in quite some time — and the fans were sent home quite happy on Friday night after a wild game. The two teams traded goals through most of the first two periods before Cole Caufield put Montreal up one at the end of the second — and a brawl ensued that spilled into the Washington bench. Although Alex Ovechkin scored 2:39 into the third to tie the game 3-3, the Habs poured it on thereafter with three straight goals, sending the “Olé!” chants to unforeseen decibel levels. Recap.

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Christian Dvorak helps Canadiens regain the lead

Christian Dvorak finds the net in the third period to help the Canadiens to retake the lead vs. the Capitals.

New Jersey Devils 3, Carolina Hurricanes 2 (2OT)
CAR leads 2-1

Down 0-2 in the series, the Devils went up 2-0 in their first game back home, on goals from Nico Hischier and Dawson Mercer. But a pair of third-period, power-play goals — from Seth Jarvis and Sebastian Aho — knotted things up, and the game went to overtime. Scoreless after one extra period, the game was ended by Simon Nemec, the second overall pick in the 2022 draft, who had been a healthy scratch previously in the series. Recap.

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Simon Nemec’s wrister wins it in 2OT for the Devils

Simon Nemec finds the winning goal as the Devils outlast the Hurricanes in double overtime.

Edmonton Oilers 7, Los Angeles Kings 4
LA leads 2-1

It takes a full-team effort to get up off the proverbial canvas when down 0-2 in a series, and that’s just what the Oilers got on Friday. Ten different Oilers hit the scoresheet in this one, including superstars like Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Evan Bouchard, as well players further down the lineup like Connor Brown and Evander Kane. The Oilers also made the switch in goal to Calvin Pickard for this game, and he responded with 24 saves on 28 shots. On the Kings’ side, Adrian Kempe had his fourth goal and fifth assist of the playoffs, putting him into first in the points race and tied for first in the goals race. Recap.

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Connor McDavid’s empty-netter secures Game 3 for the Oilers

Connor McDavid notches the empty-netter to secure a Game 3 win for the Oilers.

NEWARK, N.J. — Simon Nemec hasn’t had an ideal start to his NHL career. But in Game 3 of the New Jersey Devils‘ Stanley Cup playoff series against the Carolina Hurricanes, he finally had his career highlight.

The 21-year-old defenseman scored an unassisted goal at 2:36 of double overtime on Friday night to give the Devils a 3-2 win and new life, cutting the Hurricanes’ series lead to 2-1.

In the process, Nemec, the No. 2 pick in the 2022 NHL draft, had the most impactful moment of his pro career with his first playoff goal.

“I was so happy,” he said. “Amazing feeling. It’s been a tough season for me, and that’s a really big win for us.”

A native of Slovakia, Nemec spent his first season after the draft in the American Hockey League. He split time between the AHL and the Devils in Year 2, thrust into action because of injuries to the New Jersey defense. He split time between the NHL and the minors again this season. Nemec has played 87 games in the NHL, with five goals and 18 assists while skating to a minus-17.

He was a frequent healthy scratch in New Jersey, including Game 1 on Sunday, and his lackluster play caused many to wonder if Nemec would live up to his lofty draft position. Nemec was last on the Devils in goals above replacement at minus-8.7, according to Evolving Hockey.

Thanks to injuries to defensemen Luke Hughes and Brenden Dillon, Nemec was called upon in Game 2 against Carolina and was back in the lineup for Game 3, in which the Devils lost defenseman Johnathan Kovacevic to injury after just 10 shifts. That injury, plus the multiple overtimes, meant massive increases in ice time for veterans such as Brian Dumoulin (36:29) and Brett Pesce (32:25), as well as more responsibility for Nemec.

“You just need guys to step up at the right times,” Dumoulin said. “He knew he was going to be going out there, we’re going to be relying on him, and we needed him. You could see that he took that moment. He wasn’t scared of it, and he took the reins of it.”

Nemec said the overtime goal, which beat Carolina goalie Frederik Andersen (34 saves), was the kind of boost he needs in his career.

“Yeah, it helps me a lot,” he said. “I feel like my confidence is back the last couple games. I’m just trying to play my game and do this stuff. I have to play offense a little bit, too, so my confidence is higher, and I just feel good about myself.”

Devils coach Sheldon Keefe admitted that he dreamed about defenseman Jonas Siegenthaler, who returned to the lineup for the first time since Feb. 4 and played 27:09, being the Game 3 hero.

“But if I was really thinking, I would have said, ‘Wouldn’t this be something if the young guy who just stepped up so big for us here, if he ended the game?'” Keefe said.

The message the coach gave his team in the overtime intermissions was one of aggressiveness. That apparently wasn’t lost on Nemec.

“We’ve got to go win this hockey game. We don’t want to sit back, we don’t want this game to go on forever,” Keefe said. “Credit Nemo with doing that. To have the mindset to do it, not just sitting back and conserving energy. He was on the front foot. You love to see it and love to see him get rewarded.”

Game 4 of the series will be Sunday afternoon in New Jersey.