Local elections: How key places are predicted to vote on Thursday – and what it could mean for general election

Published

9 months ago

April 30, 2024

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More than 2,600 seats are up for election in 107 English councils on Thursday.

Now, YouGov has made its final calls for some key contests using the MRP polling method after interviewing almost 9,000 people over two weeks.

Here, exclusively on Sky News, are the headlines. We’ll start with two key battlegrounds:

Labour HQ will be very happy that YouGov says they will go red.

Hyndburn is a red wall council that has proved sticky in recent council elections. Milton Keynes is also a great political bellwether – Labour needs to be doing well here in the general election.

Then there are races that are more of a toss-up – councils that might change hands but YouGov says the races are too close to make a firm prediction.

Norwich and Tamworth are two places where Labour looks like they’re building momentum in both councils, but it’s too close to call.

Winning Norwich would be pretty seismic for Labour, given it only has one target seat, Norwich North. To be doing well in a general election, Labour only needs not to be going backwards.

Reigate is an exceptional council – local difficulties and defections in recent years make it easier to win back.

YouGov says there will also be parties possibly losing control of councils.

Lib Dem control of Hull in Yorkshire and Tory control of Walsall in the West Midlands are both on the edge – and both are big contests.

Hull in Yorkshire is where Labour is snapping at the Lib Dem’s heels. Lib Dems tell me they are worried but they’ve always just about held on in the past – it’s quite a rare head-to-head between these two.

Walsall really matters, not only because there’s a key general election seat here. But also because it’s where we will all be watching to see how much Reform UK – which is fielding candidates in 15 of the 20 wards – eats into the Tory vote and what impact that has.

Now, Thursday is not just about councils maybe changing hands. We want to know where voting patterns are changing significantly and who’s got momentum – and who hasn’t.

The big story of the night will be measuring Labour advances – and here’s where YouGov says that’s happening.

So that’s Labour momentum in the South – Milton Keynes and Thurrock; the East – Peterborough; the Midlands – Walsall – and the North.

North East Lincolnshire covers Grimsby and Cleethorpes where Sky has its target towns project, so you’re seeing lots of coverage of that race. Labour will be pleased with this – showing they’re competitive in the places they need.

And you can also see where Labour is also advancing – but YouGov says that advance is less strong.

Again, this list has areas from all around the country.

Top is Hyndburn – which you saw earlier may as a council fall Labour hands, but it’s doing so with more modest Labour momentum.

It’s a place – and places like it – that matter so much that Labour might want to be doing a bit better.

By contrast, Rugby and Tamworth are lower down the list Labour needs to worry about when they’re considering the general election. If Tories are losing there – it’s total wipe out.

Finally, here’s where YouGov projects Labour is not advancing – or where the Tories are doing okay.

The big picture in several of these is there are more parties than Labour who benefit when the Tory vote declines, including the Lib Dems.

But little change in Colchester is a small warning bell for Labour – at the general election here they need to overturn a majority of 10,000. If this happens on the night, they’ll be asking why. And Reigate, which as we said before saw defections, is predicted to have some Tory gains.

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Much of the local elections will be dominated by the mayoral contests – the biggest names standing.

But big personalities can mean politics in these races looking very different to the rest of the country.

What happens in the council elections will be poured over in far more detail, particularly by Labour, desperate to write a story that ends up with them winning at the general election.

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Crypto deregulation under Trump: Promises vs reality

Published

2 hours ago

January 13, 2025

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Crypto deregulation under Trump: Promises vs reality

The incoming US president will have the authority to enact many policies favorable to crypto users after taking office next week.

Politics

Starmer says Treasury will be ‘ruthless’ in cutting spending amid market turmoil

Published

2 hours ago

January 13, 2025

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Starmer says Treasury will be 'ruthless' in cutting spending amid market turmoil

Sir Keir Starmer has said the Treasury will be “ruthless” in cutting government spending as market turbulence continues.

Responding to a question about the economic situation from Sky News’ political editor Beth Rigby, he said: “The number one mission of this government is economic growth.

“And that was run through the budget, but there’s much more that we’re doing on economic growth, pulling those levers of change.”

Both long-term 30-year and the benchmark 10-year government borrowing costs were up on Monday morning, with the 30-year effective interest rate (the gilt yield) reaching a new high of 5.47% – a rate not seen since mid-1998.

The 10-year borrowing cost reached 4.86%, below the 2008 high recorded last Thursday but at the same levels last seen around the global financial crash.

Politics latest: Chancellor urged to hold emergency bank summit

That pushes up costs for the government, with the chancellor put in a position where she could have to break her self-imposed fiscal rules by failing to bring debt down and balance the budget.

Sterling, which can reflect investors’ confidence in the UK and overall economic health, was also down to a low not seen since October 2023, with £1 buying $1.21.

Money blog: Traders bet on pound dropping 8%

The dismal economic outlook has prompted warnings mortgage rates could rise in the coming weeks as lenders respond to the turmoil.

In what could be seen as further misery for the British people, the prime minister refused to rule out government spending cuts as he said the Treasury was right to be “ruthless” in cutting spending.

A spending review, due later this year, is expected to require government departments to make efficiency savings worth 5% of their budgets.

Sir Keir told a news conference: “We will be ruthless, as we have been ruthless in the decisions that we’ve taken so far.

“We’ve got clear fiscal rules, and we’re going to keep to those fiscal rules.”

He said the government had “inherited a real mess” of an economy from the Conservative government.

But, he said the government is “going to stick to the fiscal rules”.

“That is a very important thing,” he said.

“We’re determined to bring about that economic stability. And that’s why the fiscal rules are absolutely, absolutely central to what we do.”

Sir Keir also twice avoided answering whether Rachel Reeves will still be chancellor by the next election in 2029 in the wake of the dismal economic outlook.

“Rachel Reeves is doing a fantastic job,” he said, but would not say if she would remain in post.

“She has my full confidence, she has the full confidence of the entire party.

“She took the tough decisions.”

The Conservatives jumped on Sir Keir failing to confirm if Ms Reeves would still be in the job at the end of this parliament.

Leader Kemi Badenoch said: “The prime minister just refused to back his chancellor staying in her job.

“Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves have driven Britain’s economy into the ground. The markets are in turmoil and business confidence has crashed, yet the chancellor is nowhere to be seen.

“Labour promised stability and instead the City minister is mired in corruption investigations and the chancellor is hanging on by her fingernails.”

Politics

Scotland’s former first minister Nicola Sturgeon splits from husband

Published

9 hours ago

January 13, 2025

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Scotland's former first minister Nicola Sturgeon splits from husband

Scotland’s former first minister Nicola Sturgeon has announced she has split from her husband, Peter Murrell.

Ms Sturgeon and Ms Murrell met via the SNP and first became a couple in 2003. They later married in July 2010 at Oran Mor in Glasgow.

In a statement posted to Instagram stories, she wrote: “With a heavy heart I am confirming that Peter and I have decided to end our marriage.

“To all intents and purposes we have been separated for some time now and feel it is time to bring others up to speed with where we are.

“It goes without saying that we still care deeply for each other, and always will.

“We will be making no further comment.”

Ms Sturgeon unexpectedly announced she was stepping down as Scotland’s first minister and SNP leader in February 2023 after succeeding Alex Salmond following the independence referendum in 2014.

Mr Murrell, who had been SNP chief executive since 2001, resigned from his post the following month after taking responsibility for misleading the media over party membership numbers amid the leadership race, which Humza Yousaf went on to win.

At the time, he said: “While there was no intent to mislead, I accept that this has been the outcome.”

In April 2023, Mr Murrell was arrested as part of a probe into the SNP’s funding and finances. He was later charged with embezzling SNP funds in April last year.

Ms Sturgeon and ex-party treasurer MSP Colin Beattie have also been arrested and released without charge as part of Police Scotland’s long-running Operation Branchform.

The probe, which has been ongoing since July 2021, is linked to the spending of around £600,000 raised by SNP supporters to be earmarked for Scottish independence campaigning.

Ms Sturgeon continues to deny any wrongdoing. In an interview last month, the Glasgow Southside MSP said she knew “nothing more” about the inquiry and was getting on with life “as best I can at the moment”.

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