Local elections: How key places are predicted to vote on Thursday – and what it could mean for general election

Published

1 year ago

April 30, 2024

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More than 2,600 seats are up for election in 107 English councils on Thursday.

Now, YouGov has made its final calls for some key contests using the MRP polling method after interviewing almost 9,000 people over two weeks.

Here, exclusively on Sky News, are the headlines. We’ll start with two key battlegrounds:

Labour HQ will be very happy that YouGov says they will go red.

Hyndburn is a red wall council that has proved sticky in recent council elections. Milton Keynes is also a great political bellwether – Labour needs to be doing well here in the general election.

Then there are races that are more of a toss-up – councils that might change hands but YouGov says the races are too close to make a firm prediction.

Norwich and Tamworth are two places where Labour looks like they’re building momentum in both councils, but it’s too close to call.

Winning Norwich would be pretty seismic for Labour, given it only has one target seat, Norwich North. To be doing well in a general election, Labour only needs not to be going backwards.

Reigate is an exceptional council – local difficulties and defections in recent years make it easier to win back.

YouGov says there will also be parties possibly losing control of councils.

Lib Dem control of Hull in Yorkshire and Tory control of Walsall in the West Midlands are both on the edge – and both are big contests.

Hull in Yorkshire is where Labour is snapping at the Lib Dem’s heels. Lib Dems tell me they are worried but they’ve always just about held on in the past – it’s quite a rare head-to-head between these two.

Walsall really matters, not only because there’s a key general election seat here. But also because it’s where we will all be watching to see how much Reform UK – which is fielding candidates in 15 of the 20 wards – eats into the Tory vote and what impact that has.

Now, Thursday is not just about councils maybe changing hands. We want to know where voting patterns are changing significantly and who’s got momentum – and who hasn’t.

The big story of the night will be measuring Labour advances – and here’s where YouGov says that’s happening.

So that’s Labour momentum in the South – Milton Keynes and Thurrock; the East – Peterborough; the Midlands – Walsall – and the North.

North East Lincolnshire covers Grimsby and Cleethorpes where Sky has its target towns project, so you’re seeing lots of coverage of that race. Labour will be pleased with this – showing they’re competitive in the places they need.

And you can also see where Labour is also advancing – but YouGov says that advance is less strong.

Again, this list has areas from all around the country.

Top is Hyndburn – which you saw earlier may as a council fall Labour hands, but it’s doing so with more modest Labour momentum.

It’s a place – and places like it – that matter so much that Labour might want to be doing a bit better.

By contrast, Rugby and Tamworth are lower down the list Labour needs to worry about when they’re considering the general election. If Tories are losing there – it’s total wipe out.

Finally, here’s where YouGov projects Labour is not advancing – or where the Tories are doing okay.

The big picture in several of these is there are more parties than Labour who benefit when the Tory vote declines, including the Lib Dems.

But little change in Colchester is a small warning bell for Labour – at the general election here they need to overturn a majority of 10,000. If this happens on the night, they’ll be asking why. And Reigate, which as we said before saw defections, is predicted to have some Tory gains.

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Much of the local elections will be dominated by the mayoral contests – the biggest names standing.

But big personalities can mean politics in these races looking very different to the rest of the country.

What happens in the council elections will be poured over in far more detail, particularly by Labour, desperate to write a story that ends up with them winning at the general election.

Politics

Plaid Cymru leader was ‘turned down’ for meeting with PM, he claims

Published

2 hours ago

October 12, 2025

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Plaid Cymru leader was 'turned down' for meeting with PM, he claims

Calls for a meeting with Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer have been snubbed by No 10, the leader of Plaid Cymru has told Sky News.

Rhun ap Iorwerth, who has served as leader of the Welsh nationalist party since June 2023, is looking likely to become Wales’s first minister next May, but when he asked to meet with Sir Keir after his election last year, he says he was turned down.

Speaking with Sky News’ political correspondent Liz Bates, Mr ap Iorwerth said he had “never” had a conversation with the prime minister but it was “not because I haven’t tried”.

He added: “When I contacted the prime minister to ask for a meeting, after his election last year, I was turned down and it was passed on to the Secretary of State for Wales.

“People can read into that what they want.

“I’ve spoken very openly about wanting to have a constructive relationship with the UK prime minister.”

The former journalist said in his reporting days he had not interviewed Sir Keir and now, in politics, their “paths had never crossed” but he said he felt it was “important”.

“I have certainly asked if we could meet. And that is certainly something that I would still love to happen,” he said.

Mr ap Iorwerth said a conversation would be key because if he became Welsh first minister, there would be “serious negotiations on serious issues around funding for Wales – on investing in infrastructure in Wales, on the future of how we’re able to influence and use our natural resources in Wales”.

“So I want to have that constructive relationship,” he said.

In an apparent nod to current Labour first minister Eluned Morgan, Mr ap Iorwerth said Sir Keir would be in “no doubt” that his loyalty “would always be to the people of Wales”.

He said: “I won’t be pulling my punches in order to save the Labour Party embarrassment.

“I’ll be really laying out what’s in the interest of Wales. And that’s, I think, a fundamentally different relationship. But it has to be, and I want it to be, a constructive one.”

The next Senedd election is May 2026, when voters in Wales will elect 96 members for the first time – an increase of more than 50% from the current 60.

Welsh politics has traditionally been dominated by Labour.

Labour’s grip on Wales sliding?

Welsh Labour MPs have been the largest group sent to Westminster in every general election since 1922 – and the party has been in government in the country for more than a quarter of a century.

But if the polls are accurate, Labour’s long-standing grip on politics in Wales is fading.

Plaid Cymru and Reform UK are running almost neck and neck, while Labour trails significantly.

Politics

Rhun ap Iorwerth: Is the man on the brink of power in Wales ready to govern?

Published

2 hours ago

October 12, 2025

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Rhun ap Iorwerth: Is the man on the brink of power in Wales ready to govern?

Politics has always been unforgiving, but never more so than now.

So, speaking to the man who is on the brink of power in Wales, raises the question of whether he is really ready for what’s he’s taking on.

Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth is a former journalist so he knows how to present himself, but much bigger challenges are coming, and fast.

At next May’s Senedd elections, he is narrowly on course to become first minister, according to current polls.

But before that he faces the same battle as leaders across the UK – how to beat Reform, who are running his party very close.

It’s not clear he has a different strategy to any other politician, as he condemns their politics as divisive and tries instead to present a positive vision of unity and more public spending.

Maybe he has a better chance than most though as he can at least point the finger of blame firmly elsewhere – Westminster.

That leads to his second big problem of how to get anything from a Labour prime minister when you lead an opposition party.

In his conference speech he criticised Welsh Labour leader Eluned Morgan for being unable to influence Sir Keir Starmer.

But Mr ap Iorwerth later revealed to Sky News that he’s never even spoken to the prime minister, and when a meeting was requested he was offered the Secretary of State for Wales instead.

If he does become first minister he will have to walk the difficult line of fostering a privately productive relationship while still criticising in public.

Looming over all of this is the question of Welsh independence.

It has been the party’s driving force for a century but it’s now been shelved for at least one term in office.

Mr ap Iorwerth says it’s because they need to lay the groundwork, have a consultation on the process and bring the public with them.

The truth is that the Welsh economy is so reliant on the rest of the UK that separation would be difficult, to say the least.

Figuring out how to keep pursuing their core purpose while acknowledging that reality could become corrosive.

Having said all that, he has a sense of momentum and purpose that many other politicians are lacking, driven by a strong sense of Welsh identity.

If he does get over the line in May, it will be this feeling that propels him, and he will need to draw on it again and again as he faces the tough times ahead.