A baseball team’s season doesn’t really come down to one play, or two plays, but if you’re a loyal fan of the Philadelphia Phillies, the final play of the National League Division Series against the Los Angeles Dodgers will live in your nightmares for a long time.

Orion Kerkering‘s throwing error, leading to the Phillies’ elimination in Game 4 of the NLDS, is another addition to the list of heartbreaking postseason defeats. It’s a long list, of course, because that’s what playoff baseball does. But there were two other short throws from Game 2 that might have also impacted the outcome of the series: (1) Trea Turner‘s throw that was wide right to catcher J.T. Realmuto, allowing Teoscar Hernandez to beat the tag and slide in safely and leading to a four-run rally for the Dodgers, and (2) Max Muncy firing a perfect throw to Mookie Betts on a bunt attempt in the ninth inning that nailed Nick Castellanos at third base as the Dodgers held on for a 4-3 victory.

It’s easy to think about the what-ifs — what if either throw went a few inches the other way? Or if Kerkering threw to first base instead of home? But it’s not as simple as a few throws, although those plays highlight the small margin of error in the playoffs.

The Phillies’ season is also over because the big names didn’t hit. During this four-year run of what you might call the Bryce Harper/Kyle Schwarber era, they reached the World Series — somewhat surprisingly — in 2022 but haven’t made it back despite having some of the top front-line talent in the sport. In fact, the Phillies are 3-10 in their past 13 postseason games and 2-8 in their past 10.

In those 10 games, they’ve hit .195 as a team. Harper hit .206 with one home run and three RBIs. Schwarber hit .162 with three home runs and four RBIs, two of those home runs and three of the RBIs coming in Game 3 of this series. The others around them didn’t fare any better in those 10 games, with Turner, Bryson Stott and Brandon Marsh each hitting under .200.

As the Phillies soak up a disappointing end to 2025, you have to wonder if this might be the end of this era of Phillies baseball. Schwarber, Realmuto and Ranger Suarez are free agents this offseason. Zack Wheeler will attempt a comeback following thoracic outlet syndrome surgery — though his timeline is uncertain. Aaron Nola is coming off a 6.01 ERA. And to top it all off, their four most valuable position players this season were all 32 or older.

The Phillies have had a remarkably stable roster of core players during this four-year run, and though they might look very different in 2026, one thing is for certain: Harper is not going anywhere. Signed through 2031, he has connected with the fans of Philadelphia like few athletes do in their adopted cities. He also knows their pain.

“I know fans are upset. I know the city’s upset. Obviously, it’s warranted. We’re upset in here as well,” Harper said after Game 4. “Our daily life is Phillies baseball. This is our family in here. This is what we do. We want to win not just for ourselves, but for everybody that watches us play. … I want to hold the trophy and that’s the goal every single time you get into spring training.”

While most people in baseball don’t believe the Phillies will let Schwarber go, not coming off his 56-homer campaign, the reality of the situation is clear: This is an aging roster with a high payroll. They have a committed owner in John Middleton, who has run top-five payrolls, and a future Hall of Fame executive in Dave Dombrowski, who knows how to build teams loaded with star players, but throwing more money at older players feels risky, even for a team coming off a 96-win season and trying to win the World Series.

The organization is at a critical juncture, one that eerily resembles another Phillies era: the 2007-2011 teams that won five consecutive NL East titles and the World Series in 2008. If anything, that group was even more talented than this one — and the best of those teams was the 2011 squad that won 102 games, only to lose in the NLDS. But look what happened to those Phillies as the front office tried to keep winning with the same team:

• In 2012, they finished 81-81.

• In 2013, they finished 73-89.

• In 2014, they finished 73-89 and in last place in the division.

• In 2015, they hit rock bottom and finished an MLB-worst 63-99.

The similarities between the Phillies of the past four years and those 2007-2011 teams are more than a little eerie:

1. That 2011 NLDS ended with a 1-0 loss to the St. Louis Cardinals and on an atypical final play, when Ryan Howard grounded out and blew out his Achilles.

2. The ace of the 2011 staff was Roy Halladay, who won 19 games and posted 8.8 WAR. He was never the same again, suffering a shoulder injury the next season and winning just 15 more games in the majors. Wheeler, who had posted 5.0 WAR before this season ended when a blood clot was discovered near his right shoulder in August, will have to overcome a major injury at age 35 — the same age as Halladay in 2012.

3. The average weighted age (based on playing time) of the 2011 Phillies position players was 31.5, the oldest in the NL. The average age of the 2025 Phillies position players was 30.3, second oldest in the NL.

4. The 2011 Phillies had locked themselves into some hefty long-term contracts for older players. Howard had signed a five-year, $125 million extension in 2010 that didn’t begin until the 2012 season and was worth minus-5.0 WAR over those five seasons. Cliff Lee had signed a $120 million extension running through 2015, but he got hurt and won just four games in 2014, not even pitching in 2015. They banked on Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins to remain stars as they entered their age-33 seasons in 2012, but that didn’t happen.

The 2025 Phillies have similar issues with Wheeler making $42 million the next two seasons, Nola signed all the way through 2030, and are banking on Harper and Turner remaining productive as they enter their age-33 seasons in 2026.

It’s also hard to imagine the Phillies suddenly rebuilding. That’s not in the nature of Middleton or Dombrowski. Even with the uncertainty with Wheeler, they have another ace in Cristopher Sanchez, plus Jesus Luzardo for one more season. We might finally see top prospect Andrew Painter enter the rotation in 2026. Taijuan Walker is still around for another year, so even if they don’t re-sign Sanchez, the rotation could be solid, although a lot of that depends on Nola bouncing back. Closer Jhoan Duran is under team control for two more seasons, so Philadelphia at least finally has some stability in the ninth inning. The other key relievers will be back, including Jose Alvarado, if his $9 million club option is exercised (not a sure thing given his PED suspension made him ineligible for the postseason).

On the position player side, Castellanos ($20 million) and Walker ($18 million) come off the books after 2026, so that’s money that can go to re-signing Schwarber. They also have a pair of highly touted prospects in shortstop/third baseman Aidan Miller and outfielder Justin Crawford, who should both be ready at some point in 2026, so that’s an opportunity to weave in some younger players.

There’s also the question of who will be managing this group for the long run. While Rob Thomson is under contract through the 2026 season, there are always rumblings that it might be time for a change after a string of painful playoff exits.

Despite that potential uncertainty, Thomson has no doubt about what the Phillies will have planned for 2026: “John [Middleton] is going to spend money. He wants to win. He wants a world champion. There’s good years ahead, no doubt.”

That may very well be the case. It’s easy to envision the Phillies right back in this position next October, hoping Harper and Schwarber get hot at the right time, hoping the right throws are made this time, hoping the whims of postseason baseball go their way. History, however, also suggests that’s hardly a sure thing.

SEATTLE — Jorge Polanco hit a game-ending single in the 15th inning, and the Seattle Mariners advanced to the American League Championship Series by outlasting the Detroit Tigers for a 3-2 victory Friday night.

At 4 hours, 58 minutes, it was the longest winner-take-all postseason game in baseball history and featured 15 pitchers — eight for the Mariners and seven for the Tigers.

With one out and the bases loaded, Polanco drove in J.P. Crawford with a liner to right off Tommy Kahnle. Crawford hit a leadoff single, Randy Arozarena was hit by a pitch and Julio Rodriguez was intentionally walked before Polanco’s big swing on the 472nd pitch of an epic Game 5 in a tightly contested division series.

The Mariners left 12 runners on base and still advanced to the ALCS for the first time since 2001. Next up is a matchup with the AL East champion Blue Jays, beginning Sunday night in Toronto.

“We never give up,” Polanco said. “We just keep fighting. It doesn’t matter how many innings we play. We just stay ready and wait for the moment. It’s going to come. It was my time.”

Luis Castillo pitched 1⅓ innings for the win in his first major league relief appearance. Logan Gilbert, another member of Seattle’s rotation, worked two scoreless innings in his first relief outing since his college days at Stetson University in 2017.

“It was such a tough night,” Seattle catcher Cal Raleigh said. “Everyone put their other stuff aside and did everything for the team, including Logan and Luis.”

Detroit wasted a stellar performance by Tarik Skubal, who struck out 13 while pitching six innings of one-run ball. The Tigers went 1-for-9 with runners in scoring position and left 10 on base.

“We had an incredible game today that — unfortunately, somebody had to lose, and that somebody was us, and it hurts,” manager A.J. Hinch said.

Kerry Carpenter put Detroit in front when he hit a two-run homer off Gabe Speier in the sixth inning. Carpenter had four hits and walked twice, becoming the first player to reach five times and hit a home run in a winner-take-all postseason game since Babe Ruth in 1926.

The Mariners tied it at 2 on Leo Rivas‘ pinch-hit single off Tyler Holton in the seventh. Rivas celebrated his 28th birthday with his first postseason hit.

“He was up to the task tonight,” Seattle manager Dan Wilson said. “It was a huge hit.”

Friday’s win was the Mariners’ first series-clinching victory in extra innings since Game 5 of the 1995 ALDS, a 6-5 victory in 11 innings over the Yankees.

The Associated Press and ESPN Research contributed to this report.

Are you a fan of the old reliable or new weirdness? Do you go for a good, old-fashioned corny dog at the State Fair of Texas or do you seek out the new oddity, like this year’s Ox’cellent Cornbread Sliders or Deep Fried Carbonara?

Regardless of your taste, Week 7 of the college football season has you covered. If you like a nice blue-blood helmet game, the Red River Rivalry pits the preseason No. 1 team (Texas) against the current No. 6 (Oklahoma). Michigan heads to USC for a Rose Bowl-adjacent battle. Georgia plays Auburn! Florida plays Texas A&M! Plenty of big-name games everywhere you look!

The biggest game of the week, however, is Indiana at Oregon. Weird! Alabama at Missouri might be No. 2, and it’s possible that no game has more direct College Football Playoff implications than USF’s Friday evening visit to North Texas. An ambitious college football geek should head up to Denton before Red River!

Week 7 gives us both what we think we need and what we really, really want instead. Something for everyone. Here’s everything you need to know about another loaded weekend.

All times are Eastern; games are Saturday unless otherwise noted.

Fun new dishes

Helmet games are great. It’s nice heading into a given season with certain landmarks like OU-Texas that you know will draw attention. But there’s a buzz that comes with games of surprising gravitas, and three conferences will give us one of those this week. With assistance from the new food items at this year’s State Fair of Texas, let’s lean into all three.

The Lobster Three Ways of the Week (surprisingly fancy!)

No. 7 Indiana at No. 3 Oregon (3:30 p.m., CBS)

Oregon and Dan Lanning have grown accustomed to this “big game” thing. This will be the eighth time the fourth-year head coach has led the Ducks into a top-10 vs. top-10 battle. They’re 4-3 in such games so far, with all the losses to eventual CFP finalists. Indiana, meanwhile, has played four such games ever. Half of them happened last season, and the next one the Hoosiers win will be the first. In terms of known gravitas, we know who has the advantage.

Granted, Oregon’s win at Penn State two weeks ago looks a little different after the Nittany Lions’ loss at winless UCLA, but it seemed to give us a pretty accurate impression of the Ducks: They’re super efficient with quarterback and current No. 2 Heisman betting favorite Dante Moore leading the show on offense, but they’re not incredibly explosive. The defense combines three-and-outs — they’ve forced them on 50.9% of possessions, third in the FBS — with elite big-play prevention. I mean, of course this is an awesome team: It has won 19 of 20 games!

The spotlight, then, is on Indiana. Can the Hoosiers perform better than they did at Ohio State (38-15 loss) or Notre Dame (27-17) last year? They haven’t really given us any reason to doubt them in 2025: They’re third in SP+; they’re first in success rate* on offense and second on defense; and they beat a current top-20 team (otherwise-unbeaten No. 17 Illinois) by 53 points three weeks ago.

(* Success rate: how frequently an offense is gaining 50% of necessary yardage on first down, 70% on second down, and 100% on third and fourth downs.)

The offense generates most of the headlines, with quarterback and No. 7 Heisman betting favorite Fernando Mendoza throwing to Elijah Sarratt and Omar Cooper Jr. and handing off to Roman Hemby and Kaelon Black. The Hoosiers have a lot of ways to stay on schedule, and they’ve done it better than anyone else in the sport thus far.

Aside from the occasional big-gainer to Cooper, explosiveness isn’t necessarily a strength here, and the two teams that kept the big plays tamped down — Old Dominion and Iowa — held them to 23.5 points per game and 5.6 yards per play.

The Hoosiers’ defense is the star of the show, though. Illinois scored 10 points at 3.6 yards per play against Indiana but has averaged 42.4 points and 7.0 yards per play against everyone else. Everywhere you look, Indiana has multiple stars, with ends Kellan Wyatt, Mikail Kamara and Stephen Daley; linebackers Isaiah Jones and Rolijah Hardy; and safeties Louis Moore and Amare Ferrell. Plus star corner D’Angelo Ponds is expected to play after missing time with injury.

The Big Stage Game is the only test Indiana didn’t pass last year, but the Hoosiers get another chance to show out Saturday. We know Oregon will.

Current line: Ducks -7.5 | SP+ projection: Ducks by 6.2 | FPI projection: Ducks by 5.2

The Meat Lovers Crunch Wrap Calzone of the Week (might be new and different, might taste like a typical calzone)
No. 8 Alabama at No. 14 Missouri (noon, ABC)

On the first Monday night of the 1975 season, Missouri went down to Birmingham and pummeled No. 2 Alabama, 20-7. Bama had won 22 straight regular-season games, but led by tailback Tony Galbreath, the Tigers rushed for 206 yards to Bama’s 31 and made a 20-0 halftime lead hold up with surprising ease. “They ran up and down the field as though they were playing a barber’s college,” Alabama coach Bear Bryant said. “They ate us on the line of scrimmage.”

The win assured Mizzou of something rare: a series lead on the Tide. The Tigers were 2-1 all time against Bama when they joined the SEC in 2012. They’re now 2-6. In five meetings as SEC mates, Bama has swept by an average score of 39-10. But Saturday will be the Tigers’ best shot at a win in 50 years.

Alabama has rebounded from a dismal Week 1 loss to Florida State, winning four straight and beating ranked opponents in the last two weeks. Quarterback Ty Simpson leads my Heisman horse race, and an inefficient run game has improved since Jam Miller‘s return from injury. But running isn’t how you beat the Mizzou defense. In two games against power-conference opponents (Kansas and South Carolina), the Tigers have allowed opposing running backs to average just 1.3 yards per carry, but they also gave up 10 completions of at least 20 yards. The Tigers have the best pass rush the Tide have faced, but if they can’t pressure Simpson, the dynamite receiver trio of Germie Bernard, Ryan Williams and Isaiah Horton (combined: 192.8 yards per game, 15.1 per catch) will do damage.

A Missouri win Saturday might end up looking a lot like the 1975 game, with the Tigers controlling the ground game (and the YAC battle) on offense and defense. So far, tackling Mizzou’s Ahmad Hardy has been just about the hardest task in college football. Hardy leads the nation with 730 rushing yards, and 460 of those have come after contact.

Hardy has had more carries of more than 25 yards (five) than carries with lost yardage (four), and 212-pound backup Jamal Roberts averages even more yards per carry (7.3) than Hardy (7.1).

Mizzou boasts plenty of physicality, but aside from occasional deep shots to receiver Marquis Johnson, this offense is based far more around efficiency than explosiveness. In the last couple of Bama games, however, it’s been chunk plays or nothing against the efficient Tide. Bama records almost no tackles for loss or sacks, but sacks are the primary way of stopping Missouri: The Tigers rank 95th in sack rate allowed. When upright, Beau Pribula completes 76% of his passes, keeps the chains moving and forces teams to endure further doses of Hardy and Roberts.

Current line: Bama -3.5 | SP+ projection: Mizzou by 1.6 | FPI projection: Bama by 3.4

The Pop Rocks Margarita of the Week (let’s get silly and loud)
No. 24 USF at North Texas (Friday, 7:30 p.m., ESPN2)

The odds are in the American Conference’s favor at the moment. The Allstate Playoff Predictor currently gives six teams from the Group of 5 a 7% or greater chance of reaching the CFP, and four of those teams — Memphis (39.5%), North Texas (14.5%), USF (10.4%) and Tulane (7.7%) — are from the American. Spectacularly explosive Old Dominion (20.1%) and unbeaten UNLV (8.6%) could still take the mantle, but for now it’s the American’s show. And its No. 2 and No. 3 contenders face off Friday night before the first sellout crowd ever at DATCU Stadium.

USF has the résumé mid-majors dream of. After walloping last year’s G5 representative, Boise State, in Week 1, the Bulls took down Florida the next week. They couldn’t offer much resistance against Miami, but they’ve beaten two overwhelmed opponents by a combined 117-40 since. And their big-play capabilities are ridiculous, especially those of receivers Chas Nimrod and Keshaun Singleton (combined: 661 yards at 20.0 per catch). There’s a major all-or-nothing component to this offense — it’s 95th in success rate but fifth in yards per successful play — but the “all”s are spectacular. Defensively, it’s turnovers or bust: The Bulls have forced 11 of them. They can create some negative run plays, too, but their statistical profile is otherwise pretty underwhelming.

North Texas has its best defense in quite a while — potentially faint praise considering the Mean Green haven’t ranked higher than 105th in defensive SP+ since 2018 — but the offense is the show. It ranks ninth in points per drive with heavy efficiency, almost no turnovers (three in five games) and excellent red zone execution (10th in red zone TD rate). Backs Makenzie McGill II and Caleb Hawkins average 6.0 yards per carry over 21 carries per game, and quarterback Drew Mestemaker is completing 68% of his passes with no picks and almost no sacks. Even when they’re behind schedule, they’re not really behind schedule because Mestemaker catches them up. North Texas has scored at least 33 points in every game and has allowed more than 30 just once. That’s a pretty good combination, though USF is comfortably the best team the Mean Green have played to date.

Current line: UNT -1.5 | SP+ projection: UNT by 6.6 | FPI projection: UNT by 0.8

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Reliable old standbys

The biggest games of the week might be a little strange and experimental, but there are plenty of comforting matchups to assure that you keep your bearings. I mean, does college football get any more reliable than OU vs. Texas, Georgia vs. Auburn or Ohio State vs. a solid-but-probably-not-good-enough Big Ten foe?

The Corny Dog of the Week (safe, reliable state fair fare)
No. 6 Oklahoma vs. Texas (3:30 p.m., ABC)

Red River is both one of the most even and one of the most momentum-based rivalries you’ll see. For Texas to win for the third time in four years, the Longhorns will have to endure a strange matchup of excellent defenses and incomplete offenses.

Points per drive
Texas: 63rd on offense, fifth on defense
Oklahoma: 48th on offense, second on defense

OU quarterback John Mateer is racing to return from recent hand surgery; he was listed as probable on this week’s initial injury report, which caused the betting line to move swiftly toward the Sooners. Backup Michael Hawkins Jr. was fine against an admittedly almost Division II-worthy Kent State defense last week, but even with Mateer healthy, OU has gone unbeaten because of its defense.

Texas’ Arch Manning has yet to play well against an SP+ top-100 defense, which is pretty scary considering OU’s currently ranks second. Manning has flashed moments of excellence with his legs, but he took six sacks against Florida last week, and his numbers when pressured are pretty dismal.

Florida’s pass rush ranks 75th in sack rate; Oklahoma’s ranks first. We can talk about the Sooners’ disappointing run game and whether either Mateer or Hawkins can find enough success against a strong Texas defense. But until Texas proves it can actually keep pressure off Manning — or Manning proves he can perform well under duress — I’m not sure anything else matters.

Current line: OU -1.5 (flipped from Texas -2.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: OU by 7.6 | FPI projection: Texas by 2.8

The Fried Mac ‘n’ Cheese Bites of the Week (intriguing at first, predictable in the end)
No. 1 Ohio State at No. 17 Illinois (noon, Fox)

Ohio State’s mission is to win, not to entertain. The Buckeyes have won their last three games by an average of 34-6, and their defense, first in SP+ last season, has grown even more suffocating. They rank first in points allowed per drive, and the next red zone touchdown they allow will be the first all year.

Illinois’ offense is hot, at least. Since their humiliation against Indiana, the Illini have responded with near perfection: Luke Altmyer has completed 81% of his passes for 718 yards in two games, with wideouts Hank Beatty and Collin Dixon doing loads of damage. Granted, Washington ranked first nationally in points per drive before playing Ohio State and managed just six points. But if Illinois can do just enough damage that OSU quarterback Julian Sayin has to force the issue a bit, we could learn something useful about the Buckeyes.

Ohio State’s run game isn’t nearly as dangerous as usual, but Sayin is completing 80% of his passes and never has to take any risks. Knowing the other team will never score, the Buckeyes can just wait opponents out, and eventually receivers Jeremiah Smith and/or Carnell Tate will break through and ice the game.

Current line: OSU -14.5 | SP+ projection: OSU by 13.8 | FPI projection: OSU by 10.7

The Flamin’ Hot Cheetos Nachos of the Week (relatively predictable but could upset your stomach)
No. 10 Georgia at Auburn (7:30 p.m., ABC)

It’s danger time on the Plains. Auburn has lost 13 of 15 to Georgia and heads into this one having lost two in a row overall. The Tigers were competitive at both Oklahoma and Texas A&M because of strong defense but failed to even slightly protect Jackson Arnold (or persuade him to get the damn ball out of his hands faster). He was sacked 14 times in the two games, and Auburn scored a total of 27 points. Strangely, Georgia might offer a reprieve: The Dawgs rank just 115th in sack rate and 89th in yards allowed per dropback. They dominate against the run, but this might be Kirby Smart’s worst pass defense as a head coach or defensive coordinator.

Georgia’s offense moves efficiently but doesn’t make loads of big plays. The run game has been decent, but the Dawgs could be without both starting tackles — Monroe Freeling (ankle) and Micah Morris (back) are listed as questionable. Arnold might simply be broken, but it wouldn’t take too many decent pass plays to make this one uncomfortable for a Georgia team that really doesn’t want to suffer Loss No. 2 this early.

Current line: UGA -3.5 | SP+ projection: UGA by 4.6 | FPI projection: UGA by 3.5

The Chopped Brisket Sandwich of the Week (beefy but lacking pizzazz)
Florida at No. 5 Texas A&M (7 p.m., ESPN)

Two weeks ago, the defensive coach in Mike Elko emerged. Fresh from a 41-40 track-meet win at Notre Dame, his Aggies established a far more conservative streak.

First three A&M games: 71.0 total points per game, 7.0 yards per play, 5.2 yards allowed per play

Last two games: 33.0 total points per game, 6.1 yards per play, 3.7 yards allowed per play

In their first three games, A&M ran the ball just 39% of the time. In wins over Auburn and Mississippi State, that surged to 63%. The Aggies took more time between plays too. On both offense and defense, they sacrificed aggression for control. Granted, this nearly backfired when they dominated Auburn but couldn’t pull away. But last week’s 31-9 pummeling of Mississippi State was their best overall performance of the season.

Now comes a Florida team that also played its best game a week ago. The Gators’ defense pummeled Arch Manning early and often, and quarterback DJ Lagway played by far his most relaxed and effective game of 2025. The Gators still didn’t run the ball that well, and that’s been the easier way to move against A&M, but if this is the new Florida, Texas might not be the only team it upsets.

Current line: A&M -7.5 | SP+ projection: A&M by 10.0 | FPI projection: A&M by 6.7

The Red Velvet Cheesecake on a Stick of the Week (comforting and familiar, albeit in a confusing vessel)
No. 15 Michigan at USC (7:30 p.m., NBC)

Michigan and USC have played 11 times, and nine were in the greater Los Angeles area. Of course, eight of those were at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena; for just the second time, they’ll meet in USC’s L.A. Coliseum home.

After a bye week following the loss at Illinois, USC will define its season one way or the other playing Michigan and Notre Dame back-to-back. The Trojans’ offense still ranks first nationally in points per drive and yards per play, but the defense has slipped to 89th in rushing success rate allowed. You know what Michigan will do constantly if you can’t stop it? Run the ball. Justice Haynes has five 100-yard games in five tries.

Current line: USC -2.5 | SP+ projection: USC by 3.0 | FPI projection: USC by 4.8

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This week in the Big 12

Texas Tech’s recent levels of dominance could be taking some of the mystery out of the Big 12 title race — per SP+, the Red Raiders currently have a 38% title shot, and no one else is above 13%. But it’s still early. Four Big 12 teams are 2-0 in conference play, with another seven at 2-1 or 1-1. From those 11 teams, we get three head-to-head matchups Saturday evening.

Kansas at No. 9 Texas Tech (7:30 p.m., Fox)

Have we finally found a Texas Tech weakness? It took a few games. Red zone offense was a major issue against Houston last week — the Red Raiders scored TDs on just two of eight red zone trips, and they’re now 103rd in red zone touchdown rate for the season. That can cost you a game somewhere at some point, at least if you’re making fewer than eight trips.

Tech otherwise remains a juggernaut — top 10 in offensive and defensive success rate and top 15 on third downs on both sides of the ball with bigger big plays than its opponents. That doesn’t leave teams with many avenues for an upset. But KU’s defense is solid in the red zone, and quarterback Jalon Daniels escapes pressure beautifully. If he can make plays while Tech is kicking field goals, we could have a game.

Current line: Tech -14.5 | SP+ projection: Tech by 15.4 | FPI projection: Tech by 7.0

No. 18 BYU at Arizona (8 p.m., ESPN2)

Arizona’s offense has been pretty mediocre this season, but the Wildcats are 4-1 because they’ve resurrected the Desert Swarm defense. They rank fourth in yards allowed per play, combining loads of negative run plays with loads of incompletions and interceptions. BYU freshman quarterback Bear Bachmeier has passed every test thus far, but if he’s ever going to look like a freshman, it will come against a defense like this.

Of course, BYU’s defense is equally good at forcing mistakes — the Cougars are 15th in stuff rate and third in interception rate — and while BYU has given up an increasing number of points in each game, Arizona has played only one top-50 defense, per SP+, and scored only 14 points against Iowa State.

Current line: BYU -1.5 | SP+ projection: BYU by 3.5 | FPI projection: BYU by 5.1

No. 21 Arizona State at Utah (10:15 p.m., ESPN)

Arizona State hasn’t lost to a Big 12 team in nearly a full calendar year, but the Sun Devils are almost an afterthought in the title race, because of both Texas Tech’s hot start and their own cold start. They’ve rebounded since a loss to Mississippi State, but with Utah and Tech in the next two weeks, they need to be close to a finished product.

ASU’s defense has evolved into a sharp, bend-don’t-break unit, pouncing on mistakes and preventing big plays, but Utah almost has a bend-don’t-break offense with heavy efficiency and almost no big plays. How does that play out? And with quarterback Sam Leavitt listed as doubtful to play, can ASU establish enough of a rhythm in the run game, where Utah has suffered some glitches this year?

Current line: Utah -5.5 | SP+ projection: Utah by 10.8 | FPI projection: Utah by 5.3

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Week 7 chaos superfecta

We’re once again using this space to will chaos into existence, looking at four carefully curated games with pretty big point spreads and mashing them together into a much more upset-friendly number.

I feel as if we should claim an honorary victory for last week — we aimed to take down a Big Ten favorite and got one with the UCLA-Penn State game that I wasn’t nearly brave enough to add — but technically we failed and fell to 3-for-6 for the season. But the two-week losing streak ends here. SP+ says there’s only a 46% chance that No. 9 Texas Tech (83% win probability against Kansas), No. 11 LSU (78% against South Carolina), No. 12 Tennessee (80% against Arkansas) and No. 16 Notre Dame (89% against NC State) all win. Someone important is going down.

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Week 7 playlist

Here are some more games you should pay attention to if you want to get the absolute most out of the weekend, from information and entertainment perspectives.

Friday evening

Rutgers at Washington (9 p.m., FS1). We’re putting this ridiculous long-distance matchup on a Friday night for the second straight year, but last year’s game was pretty awesome, and this year’s could be a track meet. Rutgers ranks 17th in points per drive but 99th in points allowed per drive; Washington ranks fourth and 81st, respectively. We love points on a Friday night.

Current line: UW -10.5 | SP+ projection: UW by 12.0 | FPI projection: UW by 7.5

Early Saturday

Pitt at No. 25 Florida State (noon, ESPN). FSU set the bar a little too high with the early win over Bama, but the Noles still have a 1-in-3 chance of finishing 9-3 or better, per SP+, so there’s still plenty to shoot for. Pitt, meanwhile, looked spectacular last week after handing the reins to true freshman quarterback Mason Heintschel. A win in Tallahassee would make the Panthers sleeper ACC contenders.

Current line: FSU -9.5 | SP+ projection: FSU by 3.8 | FPI projection: FSU by 8.1

UCF at Cincinnati (noon, FS1). Cincinnati has won four in a row since its season-opening loss to Nebraska, and the Bearcats are projected favorites in their next three. UCF produces some of the biggest big plays in the country, however, which makes it a serious candidate to pull a random upset at some point.

Current line: Cincy -10.5 | SP+ projection: Cincy by 9.2 | FPI projection: Cincy by 5.3

Louisiana at James Madison (noon, ESPN2). We’re gearing up for eight words I never thought I’d have a reason to type: an Old Dominion-James Madison game with playoff implications. That’s a week away, but first JMU’s dynamite defense has to deal with backs Bill Davis and Zylan Perry and an excellent Louisiana run game.

Current line: JMU -17.5 | SP+ projection: JMU by 17.7 | FPI projection: JMU by 12.0

Washington State at No. 4 Ole Miss (12:45 p.m., SECN). OK, this probably isn’t one you’ll need to focus on for very long. But any excuse to watch Ole Miss QB Trinidad Chambliss in action is a good one. Wazzu defensive end Isaac Terrell is worth the price of admission too.

Current line: Rebels -31.5 | SP+ projection: Rebels by 34.3 | FPI projection: Rebels by 34.7

Saturday afternoon

Arkansas at No. 12 Tennessee (4:15 p.m., SECN). The (interim) Bobby Petrino era begins again at Arkansas, and the Hogs will take their ultra-explosive offense to Knoxville to face a Tennessee team that has overachieved against offensive projections but underachieved against defensive projections in every game. I’ll be disappointed if this game produces under 65 points.

Current line: Vols -11.5 | SP+ projection: Vols by 13.5 | FPI projection: Vols by 10.7

TCU at Kansas State (3:30 p.m., Fox). It’s danger time for Kansas State. The Wildcats have lost four games by a combined 13 points; they’re clearly competitive and solid, but they’re projected underdogs in their next three games. Without an immediate rebound, a frustrating season could become something far worse. TCU, meanwhile, remains in the Big 12 hunt but can’t afford a slipup after the Week 5 loss at Arizona State.

Current line: TCU -1.5 | SP+ projection: TCU by 8.2 | FPI projection: TCU by 1.8

No. 22 Iowa State at Colorado (3:30 p.m., ESPN). This is a spectacularly backhanded compliment, but Colorado is a strong 2-4. The Buffaloes have been competitive in three of four losses and make more big plays than their opponents. Iowa State wins with efficiency but got gouged by Cincinnati’s big-play offense last week. This is probably a get-right game for the Cyclones, but there’s reason for paranoia.

Current line: ISU -2.5 (down from -4.5) | SP+ projection: ISU by 5.3 | FPI projection: ISU by 3.3

NC State at No. 16 Notre Dame (3:30 p.m., Peacock). Notre Dame has shifted into gear, overachieving against SP+ projections by 19.9 points per game during a three-game winning streak. The Irish can’t let up, but NC State can shift into Bully Mode and make life really physical and frustrating thanks to RB Hollywood Smothers and an aggressive run defense.

Current line: Irish -23.5 | SP+ projection: Irish by 19.5 | FPI projection: Irish by 19.5

Nebraska at Maryland (3:30 p.m., BTN). Two 4-1 teams with very different vibes: Maryland was up 20-0 on Washington last week but collapsed and watched its unbeaten record disappear, while Nebraska handled its business against Michigan State and ranks in the top 25 in points scored and points allowed per drive. Can the Terps pull off an immediate rebound, or will NU’s push for a first 10-win season in 13 years continue?

Current line: NU -6.5 | SP+ projection: NU by 3.0 | FPI projection: NU by 4.1

Air Force at UNLV (3:30 p.m., CBSSN). Playing at Wyoming on a bed of hailstones sounds absolutely miserable, but UNLV survived the experience with relative ease, winning by 14. Now comes a visit from Air Force and new star quarterback Liam Szarka. The Falcons’ awful defense will probably prevent this from going down to the wire, but these two offenses are ridiculously fun to watch.

Current line: UNLV -7.5 | SP+ projection: UNLV by 6.7 | FPI projection: UNLV by 12.6

Navy at Temple (4 p.m., ESPN2). Temple hasn’t won more than three games in a season since 2019, but veteran head coach KC Keeler has the Owls at 3-2 and dreaming of a return to the postseason. Backs Jay Ducker and Hunter Smith could give unbeaten Navy fits, though it’s fair to assume Navy quarterback Blake Horvath and dual-threat WR Eli Heidenreich (413 receiving yards, 232 rushing yards) will give the Owls’ defense even more problems.

Current line: Navy -9.5 | SP+ projection: Navy by 13.2 | FPI projection: Navy by 2.5

Virginia Tech at No. 13 Georgia Tech (3:30 p.m., ACCN). Following the Week 3 upset of Clemson, Georgia Tech underachieved against SP+ projections twice in a row. After a bye-week refresh, it hosts an interim-coached Virginia Tech team that has started to run the ball and rush the passer well but will probably suffer too many glitches for an upset bid.

Current line: GT -14.5 | SP+ projection: GT by 16.8 | FPI projection: GT by 9.4

Northwestern at Penn State (3:30 p.m., FS1). After the worst and most unexpected loss of the James Franklin era, Penn State tries to get right against Northwestern before a rugged three-game stretch — at Iowa, at Ohio State, Indiana at home — either salvages or further wrecks the season.

Current line: PSU -21.5 | SP+ projection: PSU by 21.2 | FPI projection: PSU by 16.9

Saturday evening

South Carolina at No. 11 LSU (7:45 p.m., SECN). Maybe the biggest now-or-never game of a week full of them. South Carolina fell off course with losses to Vanderbilt and Missouri and is a projected underdog in the next five games; the Gamecocks still have LaNorris Sellers and Dylan Stewart, though, and they will remain major upset threats. LSU, meanwhile, got a bye week after losing to Ole Miss to fix whatever’s wrong with the offense; with trips to Vanderbilt, Alabama and Oklahoma remaining, the Tigers can’t afford a home upset.

Current line: LSU -9.5 | SP+ projection: LSU by 12.1 | FPI projection: LSU by 6.3

Iowa at Wisconsin (7 p.m., FS1). Iowa is eight points from an unbeaten record but is 3-2 instead. That’s more than Wisconsin can say, though. The Badgers showed some brief life after handing the QB reins to Southern Illinois transfer Hunter Simmons last week, but they still lost to Michigan by two touchdowns and have been outscored by 55 points against three power-conference opponents.

Current line: Iowa -3.5 | SP+ projection: Iowa by 6.0 | FPI projection: Iowa by 3.1

Late Saturday

New Mexico at Boise State (9:45 p.m., FS1). Jason Eck and his super-underdog Lobos couldn’t get the job done at San José State last week, and their run defense is shaky enough that Boise State should be able to feast on the ground. UNM is crafty, however, avoiding negative plays and going for it constantly on fourth downs. If BSU is looking ahead to next week’s UNLV game, the Lobos could strike.

Current line: BSU -16.5 | SP+ projection: BSU by 13.3 | FPI projection: BSU by 9.4

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Smaller-school showcase

Let’s once again save a shoutout for the glorious lower levels of the sport. Here are three games you should track.

Division III: No. 7 Wisconsin-Platteville at No. 17 Wisconsin-River Falls (2 p.m., local streaming). Another trip to the Wisconsin Intercollegiate Athletic Conference? You’re damn right! Conference play began last week with two awesome ranked-versus-ranked battles, and we get another one with quarterback Nathan Uselding and Platteville heading to River Falls. The host Falcons dropped a heartbreaker in Oshkosh last week, and it’s hard to come back from starting 0-2 when you have a seven-game conference schedule.

SP+ projection: UWP by 6.4.

FCS: Alabama State at No. 14 Jackson State (3:30 p.m., ESPNU). We could have a pretty dynamite Celebration Bowl this year, with the MEAC’s NC Central and the SWAC’s Jackson State and Alabama State all 31st or better in FCS SP+. JSU and ASU meet in Jackson on Saturday. A dynamite run game led by Ahmad Miller and Travis Terrell Jr. (combined: 150 rushing yards per game, 8.1 per carry) could give JSU a slight edge, but ASU QB Andrew Body is an impressive dual threat.

SP+ projection: JSU by 7.6.

FCS: No. 9 Southern Illinois at No. 1 North Dakota State (3:30 p.m., ESPN+). On one hand, this is a top-10 matchup, and those are always worth tracking. On the other hand, NDSU has been head and shoulders above everyone else in the FCS this season — shocking, right? — and I’m not sure even a top-10 team can keep up in Fargo. SIU quarterback DJ Williams is another super-fun dual threat, though.

SP+ projection: NDSU by 20.3.