Looks can be deceiving: NHL ‘graybeards’ still making an impact
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Ryan S. Clark, NHL reporter
Being an undrafted free agent meant Mark Giordano had to answer questions about if he could actually make it in professional hockey. Being the captain of two teams meant he had to answer questions about why everything was either going well or going terribly.
Being the oldest player in the NHL also meant the 40-year-old Giordano had to answer another question.
How did he react the first time he saw he had gray hair?
“You know what? They come quickly,” Giordano laughed. “The first time, you’re like, ‘Ah, that’s not a big deal.’ Then, pretty soon your full beard is gray and the side of your hair is getting gray. I didn’t really react, I just shaved my head so I can hide them pretty easily. It’s a wake-up moment for sure.”
Age comes up all the time in hockey. How many players on a roster are younger than 25? Are members of a team’s core about to enter their prime? Are they in their prime? Or are they past their prime? How does the discussion around a player’s contract shift once he turns 30? If a team is rebuilding, front offices typically want older players to cultivate the dressing room. If a team is in a championship window, there’s a need to have young players on team-friendly deals who can contribute.
Appearance matters, too. Nearly every NHL team posts pictures on social media of its players walking into the arena on game day. Some of those accounts will even praise a player’s clothing choices. There are weekly fashion rankings and players frequently talk about their best- (or worst-) dressed teammates.
Hair is part of a long-standing fascination with what lies or flows underneath a helmet. Wayne Gretzky had the feathered mullet. Jaromir Jagr possessed a curly mane. Mike Marson had an Afro tucked under his helmet. Anson Carter’s dreadlocks sprouted from all angles, while Pokey Reddick had a Jheri curl. These days, more contemporary looks have been sported by Jack Eichel, Erik Karlsson, Artemi Panarin and Mika Zibanejad. The obsession has even extended to the high school level; one of the traditions of the Minnesota state tournament is the all-hair team, which has existed for more than a decade.
Gray hair is where age and appearance intersect.
Those gray hairs can be interpreted as something of a countdown in terms of how much time a player has left in his career. It’s a reality that has become even more prescient given there are 46 players in the NHL who are older than 35 and their ranks have declined over the past decade. The league had 62 players who were older than 35 during the 2013-14 season.
“Honestly, I think it’s just a mental thing,” said Dallas Stars defenseman Ryan Suter, who at 38 is the sixth-oldest player in the league. “You can think you’re old and you act old. Or you can think you’re young, hang out with young guys and be a part of it.”
AS SUTER WAS explaining the mindset that comes with being an older player in the NHL, there was a reminder within the Stars’ dressing room that age is an inescapable subject — playing through the speakers in the room were the songs “New Age Girl” by Deadeye Dick and “If You Don’t Love Me” by Pete Droge.
Both songs were released in 1994.
There are 13 players on the Stars’ active roster who were alive when those songs came out, while the others, including Thomas Harley, Miro Heiskanen, Roope Hintz, Jake Oettinger, Jason Robertson and Wyatt Johnston, were not born yet.
Suter said he uses his experience as an older player to mentor the younger Stars. His time in the league has taught him how to speak with a teammate who might be struggling.
What about Suter? Is there anything in the NHL that once was easy but he now finds more challenging because of his age?
“Nutrition probably,” he said. “When you’re young, you can get away with things and you don’t have to eat great. When you get older, you start to think a little bit more. … I remember being in Nashville my first few years and I used to have a bag of peanut M&Ms before every game and that went away probably 10 years ago. It’s just the little things like that you probably don’t want to do anymore.”
Stars forward Joe Pavelski, who turns 40 in July, is the second-oldest player in the NHL. He said the goal of finding success into his late 30s was something he started thinking about when he turned 30 back when he was with the San Jose Sharks.
From his rookie season as a 22-year-old to his age-29 season, Pavelski scored 415 points in 561 games for an average of 0.74 points per game. He played in all but 25 of the Sharks’ games in that time.
Once he turned 30, Pavelski’s production increased across the board. From his age-30 season to his last game before this year’s NHL All-Star break, he scored 653 points over 771 games for an average of 0.85 points per game while playing in all but nine regular-season games between his time with the Sharks and Stars.
Since joining the Stars in 2019-20, Pavelski has missed only two games, and those came in his first season. He’s the only Stars player to appear in every game since the 2020-21 season and is one of three Stars who hasn’t missed a game since the 2021-22 season.
The other players who have appeared in every game since the 2021-22 season are captain Jamie Benn, who turns 35 in July, and Suter.
“Coming in at a younger age, you have great guys around you,” Pavelski said. “You watch them early and kind of take things from there and you build your own structure with how you take care of yourself and how you can play. When you get to a certain level, you want to keep it there for as long as you can. There are expectations, and that doesn’t change as you get older.”
A skill that has helped Pavelski throughout his career and kept him productive is his ability to consistently reach high-danger areas and convert those scoring chances into goals.
Metrics from IcyData show that 52% of Pavelski’s career goals have come from the slot with another 21% coming at the front of the net. Back in 2013-14, half of his goals came from the slot while an additional 24% came at the net front. This season he has scored 17% of his goals from the slot and 33% at the net front. He has scored 33% of his goals from the left perimeter — something of an outlier given just 5% of his career goals have come from that spot on the ice.
He finished the regular season with 27 goals and 67 points for his 14th season with more than 20 goals while falling short of what would have been his sixth 30-goal season. Pavelski was also three points shy of hitting the 70-point mark for what would have been a third straight campaign and the sixth time of his career.
In most any other field, Pavelski, at 39, would be viewed as someone who has much of his career ahead of him. If he were named CEO of a company, he’d be on a “40 under 40” list or might be talked about as the next great innovator.
But when it comes to hockey and other pro sports? There’s a belief that being 30 — let alone 35 or 40 — and still productive is something just short of a miracle.
And for the record, Pavelski said he has not found a gray hair.
“Those questions happen because that’s the life expectancy of an athlete,” Pavelski said. “With today’s game you see guys in other leagues, you see guys in your own league that are having a lot of success and you want to put the work into being one of those guys who continues to play well.”
IT’S NOT LIKE athletes can lie about their age as they get older. After all, their birth dates are posted all over the internet.
How does it work being a hockey player with gray hair? Do they embrace it? Do they try to hide it? Do they even care?
The answers vary depending upon the source.
San Jose Sharks defenseman Marc-Edouard Vlasic, who is the 21st-oldest player in the NHL, said he has found a gray hair here and there. But he plucked them out as soon as he saw them.
“It’s not enough to the point where I need to use Just For Men,” Vlasic said. “I am OK, so far. Knock on wood.”
But would he ever dye his hair?
“I’m not there, so I don’t have to think about it,” Vlasic said with a laugh. “I’m not at that point. I don’t want to think about what it would take to get to that point. I’m good for now.”
Colorado Avalanche defenseman Jack Johnson, who is the 18th-oldest player in the NHL, said he has not had any gray hair yet and that his hair is still brown with some blond highlights in the summer.
“I am going to keep it there for a little while longer,” Johnson said. “I might just skip the gray. I might just lose it. I don’t know.”
Johnson said he’s not going to panic once he has gray hair. He was also emphatic that he was not going to dye his hair “every couple weeks” to hide it when the time comes.
“That’s way too much energy. I’m not that vain,” Johnson said. “If my wife wants me to, maybe I’ll think about it.”
Talking about having gray hair made Johnson reminisce and shake his head at certain realities. Like when he was asked what it’s like to have teammates, such as Samuel Girard and Cale Makar, who are younger than Netflix.
No, really. Girard and Makar were born in 1998; Netflix was founded in 1997.
“I think what gets me sometimes is seeing guys I’ve played against or with in management roles or things like that,” Johnson said. “Rob Blake was my first defense partner and now he’s the general manager of the Los Angeles Kings. I was fortunate enough that I got to play against Joe Sakic,” Colorado’s president of hockey operations.
“Then there’s other fun parts where [Avalanche teammate] Andrew [Cogliano] and I were classmates at the University of Michigan. That stuff’s kind of cool when you’re like, ‘Man, that was a long time ago.'”
Cogliano, who is the 23rd-oldest player in the league, admits to having gray hair and said it makes him feel at times like he’s closer in age to Avalanche coach Jared Bednar than he is to some of his teammates.
Cogliano is not far off in his assessment. Bednar, who turns 52 in late February, is 15 years older than Cogliano, whereas the Avs’ youngest player, Justus Annunen, is 24, or 12 years younger than Cogliano.
Both Cogliano and Johnson left Michigan after the 2006-07 season. That was just a few months before Boston University center Macklin Celebrini, who is projected to be the No. 1 pick of this year’s draft, celebrated his first birthday.
“It is what it is and sometimes, you take it for a vote of confidence when you look pretty good and you’re going out there against a younger guy,” said Cogliano, who said there are times when he hears about his age from his younger teammates.
Seattle Kraken forward Jaden Schwartz, who was born in 1992, already has a few strands of gray. He said the color of his hair is not what gets him. It’s seeing that there are players who were born in 2000 who are not only playing in the NHL but are already in their early 20s.
“That’s when you start feeling — or at least, that’s when I started feeling a little bit on the older side and you’re not seeing a lot of guys born around the same time as you,” Schwartz said. “It’s just a little different as you go. When I came in, it was an older league. And now that I am older, it’s a younger league. It’s just gone that way the last 10 years. It’s kind of fun because when I was young, I had a lot of good veterans that I learned from, and now you’re trying to be that for them.”
Kraken forward Jordan Eberle, who turns 34 in May, said he has found a bit of gray in his beard but had an idea it was coming. Eberle, like a number of players, said seeing his dad get gray hair at a certain age let him know what was ahead.
Eberle said he was 27 when he spotted his first gray hair, while noting he has gained more in recent years. Similar to Johnson, Eberle said watching former teammates or players he played against go into management was another sign of how long he has been at this.
Eberle was struck by Steve Staios being hired by the Ottawa Senators to be their president of hockey operations. Eberle was an Edmonton Oilers prospect when Staios, now the Senators’ GM, played for the team.
“I was at [training] camp with him!” Eberle said. “You see that stuff, but I still love hockey. You enjoy being around the kids and it makes you feel youthful.
“I think as you get older, you enjoy the game a little more. I have kids and I love when they come to the rink and watch you play. As you get older, you realize you’re on the back nine and don’t have many years left.”
Being an older player can mean their younger teammates might have grown up idolizing or watching them.
Oilers forward Derek Ryan, who is the 16th-oldest player in the NHL, spent four seasons playing in Europe and didn’t make his NHL debut until he was 29. The 37-year-old spent one season in Sweden playing for Örebro HK, where children would come on the ice for warm-ups.
Defenseman Philip Broberg, who has split time between the Oilers and their AHL affiliate, grew up in Örebro and was one of the youngsters who skated alongside Ryan.
“It makes me feel a little bit older when you hear stories like that,” Ryan said. “But it keeps me young and keeps me feeling young when I am around the young guys and hear them talking and hear their stories. I try to take a little bit of the good with the bad.”
That said, there are young players who have already found they have some gray hair at the start of their careers.
Matty Beniers is one of them. Yes, the reigning Calder Trophy winner, who was born in 2002 — the year “Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets” was released — already had gray hair by the time he was 20.
Even with his jet black hair, Beniers’ gray hair is not visible from a distance. But anyone who sits within five or so feet of him will notice he has two or three strands of gray.
Beniers said he knew he’d eventually go gray because of his father.
But to go gray in the earliest part of his 20s? As a second-year player?
“Yeah, it’s not the best thing,” Beniers said with a smile.
Sports
College football FPI release: The numbers behind the top teams, best matchups and championship odds
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Neil Paine
There’s no going back now. The College Football Playoff’s expanded 12-team format made its debut last season, reshaping the postseason as we knew it and showing just how brutal the path to a national championship can be. Add in a flurry of conference realignments (with the grueling travel schedules they created), the ever-increasing influence of the transfer portal and what might be the dawn of an entirely new financial model underpinning the sport, and college football could be changing faster — and more dramatically — than at any point in its history.
As part of our efforts to keep track of these seismic changes, we are relaunching our Football Power Index (FPI) ratings and projections for the 2025 season this week. Just to refresh our memories, the FPI is a predictive rating system that estimates each FBS team’s strength (in points per game relative to the national average) on offense, defense and special teams, making adjustments for starters lost, recruiting talent and other personnel changes. Those numbers are then plugged into the schedule, and everything is simulated 20,000 times to track each team’s odds of winning its conference, making the playoff and advancing through to the national title.
The preseason forecast features plenty of familiar teams at the top, but also plenty of candidates to crash the playoff party. Let’s begin our tour of the data by looking at the teams most likely to win the 2025 championship.
The top of the list is dominated by SEC teams — 11 of the top 19 hail from the conference, including the two most likely champions in Texas and Georgia (and three of the top four, if you include Alabama).
A year after Ohio State and the Big Ten won the first 12-team playoff title — with only three SEC squads making the field — the FPI model expects a nation-high 4.6 playoff teams to hail from the conference (nearly twice as many from any other) with a 61% chance that the SEC produces the eventual champion.
SEC and Big Ten remain on top
If not an SEC team, then the championship will probably go to another familiar power conference program, with a trio of Big Ten teams — Ohio State, Penn State and Oregon — checking in next on the odds list, a year after each went to the CFP quarterfinals (or beyond). A high share of returning production could also have coach Dabo Swinney and Clemson representing the ACC in the playoff again — perhaps making it past the the first round this time.
And if we’re looking for somewhat refreshed entries after down seasons, Auburn, Michigan and Oklahoma are all among the 17 most likely champions after each finished outside the top 25 in the FPI last season. All three made major moves in the offseason to spark their surges: Auburn brought in a top-10 transfer class headlined by former Sooners quarterback Jackson Arnold; Michigan brought in a big recruiting class and a few top transfers; and Oklahoma revamped its offensive core, with prized quarterback John Mateer at the helm — plus its returning production otherwise — helping vault the Sooners back into the national picture.
Playoff odds for the Group of 5
As always, the Group of 5 is also an important part of the playoff puzzle, in no small part because of its guaranteed spot in the bracket (reserved for the fifth-highest ranked conference champion). Here are the non-power conference teams with the highest chance to make the playoff in the FPI model.
Even after losing record-setting running back Ashton Jeanty, the Broncos remain the most likely Group of 5 team to make the playoff — though Tulane (despite losing quarterback Darian Mensah and running back Makhi Hughes) and UNLV (coming off an 11-win season, though quarterback Hajj-Malik Williams has moved on) aren’t far behind. With several contenders bunched together and no clear juggernaut, the G5 race for a playoff spot is something to keep a close eye on — including its ripple effects on the rest of the bracket.
Next, let’s look at the projected top units on each side of the ball in 2025, according to the FPI.
If we want another illustration of how dominant the best teams are, the top four projected offensive teams by the FPI — Texas, Georgia, Alabama and Ohio State — are also the top four projected defensive teams, with Alabama and Texas rising 10 spots apiece from 2024 on the offensive side.
That kind of balance on both sides of the ball is what separates this year’s top contenders from the pack, especially in a postseason format that requires versatility over three or four high-stakes playoff games. The rest of the top 20 on both sides also contain some of the biggest offseason movers in those unit rankings — such as Oregon (up 11 spots on defense), Florida (up 27 spots on offense), Clemson (up 14 spots on defense), South Carolina (up 24 spots on offense) and Texas A&M and Auburn (who are up double-digit spots on both sides).
Biggest risers and fallers
Speaking of those offseason changes, let’s look at the programs that have gained (or lost) the most ground overall in the FPI entering 2025.
FAU is projected to improve by at least 25 ranking slots on offense, defense and special teams after adding quite a few transfers — including ex-Western Kentucky quarterback Caden Veltkamp — ahead of coach Zach Kittley’s first season in Boca Raton. Among power conference teams, Florida State is looking to bounce back from last season’s nightmare with the help of a great offseason in the portal, headlined by the addition of former USC wide receiver Duce Robinson, while ACC rival, Stanford, has the nation’s 13th-highest share of production returning for 2025.
At the other end, Army has lost roughly half of its production from last season’s impressive 12-2 team, including top rusher Kanye Udoh and sack leader Elo Modozie; the FPI predicts regression will hit the Knights hard.
And in terms of power teams who had competitive FPI ratings a year ago, Louisville is projected to drop from No. 12 to 41 after bidding farewell to quarterback Tyler Shough, wide receiver Ja’Corey Brooks, starting offensive tackle Monroe Mills, sack leader Ashton Gillotte and each of its three leading defensive backs in interceptions. Similarly, Colorado sustained heavy offseason losses, and regression might also come for Indiana and Iowa State after a pair of outstanding 11-win seasons.
(Where did the top transfer portal teams land on the most improved list? In addition to FSU and Auburn, Nebraska is up 13 spots to No. 25, Texas Tech rose nine spots to No. 35 and Texas A&M was up seven slots to No. 8. But keep an eye on Ole Miss, which was among the more active portal teams but fell eight spots in the FPI rankings anyway without quarterback Jaxson Dart.)
Best matchups in 2025?
Finally, let’s close by circling the biggest matchups of the 2025 season on our college football calendars. According to the FPI’s projected ratings for both teams, these are the most anticipated games of the season — matchups in which each squad ranks highly, helping to create a high combined matchup quality on ESPN Analytics’ 0-100 scale:
We’ll get one of the best games of the season practically right away, with Week 1 providing Texas-Ohio State — a battle of top-four preseason FPI teams — on Saturday, Aug. 30. That same day, we’ll also get LSU-Clemson, and the next day, we’ll watch Notre Dame travel to Miami to face the Hurricanes in a top-10 FPI matchup.
That sets the tone for a regular season that will feature at least one matchup rated 90 or higher in the FPI matchup quality metric almost every week. But the best week by that metric — with three games rated 90 or higher and five rated 85 or higher — is Week 14, with Ohio State-Michigan, Auburn-Alabama and all of the other usual late-season rivalry games. In addition, three other weeks — Week 5, Week 7 and Week 10 — will carry five games each with a matchup rating of 85 or higher.
That’s a loaded calendar, and it reflects how the meaning of each college football Saturday is changing. Under the old system, one bad week could doom a contender. Now, teams can afford a stumble … but the trade-off is that they also need to prove themselves over more games against top-tier teams.
Regular-season showdowns still matter, too — especially for seeding, byes and home-field advantage. But there’s also more room for redemption, which we saw embodied by both championship game combatant’s last season. And through it all, the FPI gives us a roadmap to help navigate what’s shaping up to be another wild and transformative season of college football.
Heisman Trophy winners Mark Ingram, Cam Newton and Robert Griffin III and former AP National Player of the Year Ndamukong Suh are on the ballot for the 2026 College Football Hall of Fame class.
The National Football Foundation released the ballot Monday for the class that will be announced in January. It includes 79 players and nine coaches from the Football Bowl Subdivision and 100 players and 35 coaches from lower levels.
Ingram became Alabama’s first Heisman winner in 2009 after running for 1,658 yards and 20 touchdowns. Newton in 2010 was just the third player in FBS history with 20 passing and 20 rushing touchdowns. Griffin in 2011 led the nation in points responsible for and ranked second in total offense.
Suh was a force for Nebraska in 2009 and became the first defensive lineman in 15 seasons to be named a finalist for the Heisman Trophy. He finished fourth in voting but was honored as the nation’s top player by The Associated Press.
Among other players on the ballot are Iowa’s Brad Banks, Colorado’s Eric Bieniemy, Oklahoma State’s Dez Bryant, Penn State’s Ki-Jana Carter, Pittsburgh’s Aaron Donald, Syracuse’s Marvin Harrison, Oklahoma’s Josh Heupel, Ohio State’s James Laurinaitis, Washington State’s Ryan Leaf, California’s Marshawn Lynch, Illinois’ Simeon Rice and Florida State’s Peter Warrick.
Among coaches on the ballot are Larry Coker, Gary Patterson and Chris Petersen.
Coker led the Canes to consecutive national championship games and won the 2002 Rose Bowl to become the first rookie head coach to lead his team to a title since 1948. Patterson is TCU’s all-time wins leader who led the Horned Frogs to six AP top 10 final rankings. Petersen is Boise State’s all-time wins leader who led the Broncos to two undefeated seasons and led Washington to the 2016 College Football Playoff.
The NFF also announced an adjustment to the eligibility criteria for coaches to be considered for induction. The minimum career winning percentage required for coaching eligibility will go from .600 to .595 beginning in 2027.
The change would make Mike Leach eligible. Leach, who died in 2022, had a .596 winning percentage with a 158-107 record over 21 seasons at Texas Tech, Washington State and Mississippi State.
Leach was known for his innovative wide-open offenses and his knack for pulling upsets. He won 18 games against Top 25 opponents when his team was unranked.
ESPN has released its 2025 Football Power Index (FPI) ratings and projections, and our college football reporters are here to break them down.
The ratings, for the uninitiated, include forecasts for every team’s record, its chances of winning a conference title and of course, its probability to make the expanded 12-team playoff and win the national championship.
The FPI is a power rating that tracks each team’s strength relative to an average FBS squad. Teams are rated on offense, defense and special teams, with the values representing points per game.
You can read Neil Paine’s takeaways here and get our staff’s analysis below.
Which team is FPI undervaluing?
Paolo Uggetti: Even though Kenny Dillingham said at Big 12 spring meetings recently that being considered one of the conference’s favorites after being picked to finish last in 2024 is “less fun,” I still think FPI is slightly undervaluing the Sun Devils at No. 24. Sure, they lost star running back Cam Skattebo to the NFL draft, but they also return a quarterback in Sam Leavitt (2,885 yards and 24 touchdowns last year) who could be a Heisman contender, wide receiver Jordyn Tyson (1,101 yards and 10 touchdowns) and defensive back Xavion Alford, among several other starters and stalwarts of last year’s Cinderella season. Dillingham won’t flinch at now being considered a favorite to win the conference and I imagine he’ll have ASU with plenty of fire and motivation come kickoff. It would not shock me to see them make another playoff run.
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Kenny Dillingham: ASU facing a different type of adversity this year
Arizona State head coach Kenny Dillingham explains the differences his team is facing this season after coming off a Big 12 title last season.
Mark Schlabach: I think you can argue that Clemson is one of the two best teams in the FBS entering the season (along with Penn State), and it’s certainly one of the best 10, so it’s surprising to see them in at No. 11. In our colleague Jordan Reid’s initial 2026 NFL mock draft, he had four Tigers going in the first round, including quarterback Cade Klubnik at No. 1. Three seasons ago, Clemson fans wondered whether Klubnik was the right guy for the job, now he’s considered one of the most polished passers in the sport, after throwing for 3,639 yards with 36 touchdowns and six interceptions last season. The Tigers have the best defensive line in the FBS, and Reid had tackle Peter Woods and edge rusher T.J. Parker going in the top 10, as well. The Tigers open the season against LSU at home and play at South Carolina in the finale, but I can’t see many ACC teams beating them.
Bill Connelly: There are quite a few non-SEC teams we could choose from here, but I’m going to go with No. 39 Iowa. The Hawkeyes have more to replace on defense than usual, but a) I can’t even pretend like they’ll have anything other than a top-10 or top-15 defense until proven otherwise, and b) the offense improved significantly last year (albeit from horrific to merely mediocre) and might have made a lovely QB upgrade by bringing in South Dakota State’s Mark Gronowski. Losing running back Kaleb Johnson hurts, but this very much feels like a top-25-level team to me, one I trust quite a bit more than quite a few of the teams directly ahead of the Hawkeyes in FPI.
Jake Trotter: Indiana did graduate quarterback Kurtis Rourke, who had a fabulous one season for the Hoosiers while propelling them to the playoff and the first 10-win season in school history. Indiana, however, returns several key players from last year’s squad, including All-Big Ten receiver Elijah Sarratt, defensive end Mikail Kamara, linebacker Aiden Fisher and cornerback D’Angelo Ponds. The Hoosiers also added Cal transfer quarterback Fernando Mendoza, who brought plenty of experience (19 career starts) with him to Bloomington. Curt Cignetti has already proved he can coach. And with no Ohio State or Michigan on the schedule, it wouldn’t be completely stunning if Indiana knocks on the door of playoff contention once again.
Which team is FPI overvaluing?
Trotter: So we’re doing this again, huh? Every preseason, Texas A&M gets top-10 hype. Every season, the Aggies fail to deliver on it. Texas A&M has reached double-digit wins just once this century (the Johnny Football year in 2012). And yet, FPI is giving them the benefit of doubt again as the No. 8-ranked team. Mike Elko is a terrific coach and the Aggies, as always, have talent, including intriguing dual-threat sophomore quarterback Marcel Reed. But the Aggies ranked 51st last year in offensive EPA and 47th in defensive EPA. That hardly screams top 10 team. What’s really there to suggest the Aggies will be any different than what they’ve been?
Connelly: We can’t say for sure that FPI is overvaluing Texas because if Arch Manning lives up to his hype, the Longhorns really might be the best team in the country. However, if he’s merely very good instead of great, then holes elsewhere might become problematic. This is, after all, a team that lost four offensive line starters, its top four defensive linemen and two of the best DBs in the country in Jahdae Barron and Andrew Mukuba. Steve Sarkisian has obviously recruited well, the replacements for those lost linemen could be excellent, and Texas will be very good regardless. But they’re only No. 1 if Arch is an All-American. No pressure.
Uggetti: I’m having a hard time with Miami all the way up at No. 9. I can see the case for it: They have a solid core of players returning throughout the roster and head coach Mario Cristobal and his staff were transfer portal merchants this offseason, bringing in several offensive weapons such as wideouts CJ Daniels (LSU), Keelan Marion (BYU) and Tony Johnson (Cincinnati) as well as some much needed help in the secondary via cornerback Xavier Lucas (Wisconsin) and safety Zechariah Poyser (Jacksonville State). Of course, the crux of the hype surrounding the Hurricanes hinges on their biggest portal addition, quarterback Carson Beck. After losing Cameron Ward to the draft, Cristobal & Co. are banking on Beck (who is coming off surgery for a torn UCL in his right elbow) to be the guy who was supposed to lead Georgia to a national title. Count me among the skeptics.
Schlabach: Given what transpired at Tennessee in the spring, I’m not sure the Volunteers are a top-25 team heading into the season, let alone one that should be ranked No. 10. I didn’t have the Volunteers ranked in my latest Way-Too-Early Top 25. I could see the Vols going one of two ways after quarterback Nico Iamaleava up and left for UCLA following an NIL dispute: The Vols are going to be better off with quarterback Joey Aguilar and his teammates will rally around him, or Augilar’s leap from Appalachian State to the SEC is too high. The Vols were already facing an uphill climb on offense, in my opinion, after SEC leading rusher Dylan Sampson departed, along with three of the team’s top receivers.
Which power conference team outside the FPI top 25 can make a run?
Trotter: Texas Tech landed the nation’s top transfer portal class, beefing up the trenches on both sides of the ball to a team that went 8-5 last season. With 24 career starts behind him, quarterback Behren Morton should be even better after throwing for 3,335 yards and 27 touchdowns last year. If the portal additions playing up front defensively, combined with the arrival of new defensive coordinator Shiel Wood, can bolster a unit that ranked just 108th in EPA last year, the Red Raiders could threaten for a conference title and playoff berth in what figures to be another wide-open Big 12.
Connelly: I would say that half the Big 12 is capable of playing at a top-15 or top-20 level and making a conference title (and, therefore, CFP) run, but I’m particularly intrigued by the duo of No. 32 TCU and No. 33 Baylor. They both won six of their last seven to end the season, and they both return stellar quarterbacks in Josh Hoover (TCU) and Sawyer Robertson (Baylor). I feel like I trust TCU’s returning personnel more, but Baylor’s Dave Aranda was extremely active in the transfer portal, too. The Revivalry — hey, it’s a better name than Bluebonnet Battle — is on October 18, and the winner will probably head into November as a serious Big 12 contender.
Uggetti: Washington (No. 27) had a disappointing 6-7 season in its first year in the Big 12 under new coach Jedd Fisch. The Huskies finished ninth in the conference and seem to have quietly stumbled into the shadow of their more successful Pacific Northwest neighbor, Oregon. But Fisch, like he showed at Arizona, can build a successful team over time. Washington brought in a top-25 recruiting class this past year and added some much-needed defensive reinforcements in the portal. Snagging four-star wide receiver Johntay Cook II from Texas will be a boon for expected starting quarterback Demond Williams Jr. who, after showing some flashes last season, could be primed for a breakout.
Which team’s odd ranking will be proven correct by the end of the season?
Schlabach: There’s a smorgasbord of “odd” rankings to select from. I think you can argue that No. 8 Texas A&M, No. 14 Auburn, No. 16 Oklahoma and No. 19 USC are probably ranked too high, and No. 12 LSU, No. 29 BYU, No. 31 Indiana and No. 35 Texas Tech are too low. LSU might have the SEC’s best quarterback in Garrett Nussmeier, and coach Brian Kelly struck gold in the transfer portal, landing defensive ends Patrick Payton (Florida State) and Jack Pyburn (Florida), receivers Nic Anderson (Oklahoma) and Barion Brown (Kentucky), offensive linemen Braelin Moore (Virginia Tech) and Josh Thompson (Northwestern) and cornerback Mansoor Delane (Virginia Tech). But LSU’s schedule is difficult, with road games at Clemson, Ole Miss, Alabama and Oklahoma, and I’m not sure they’ll be better than 9-3, which would put them right about No. 12.
Uggetti: I’ll take one of the teams Mark mentioned and focus on USC. At first glance, I was also surprised that FPI has them all the way up to No. 19 given the Trojans are coming off a disappointing 7-6 debut season in the Big 10. But the Trojans have made several strides this offseason, not just as a program by hiring general manager Chad Bowden from USC, but also as a team to put themselves in position to surprise in 2025. The defense continues to use the portal to add key talent such as defensive tackles Jamaal Jarrett (Georgia) and Keeshawn Silver (Kentucky). The most exciting player on the team, however, may be incoming freshman defensive lineman Jahkeem Stewart, who is likely to make an impact right away. A lot of the Trojans’ hopes this season are riding on quarterback Jayden Maiava and how he fares in his first full season as a starter. He finished with 1,201 yards and 11 touchdowns last season and a second year in Lincoln Riley’s offense should serve him well. USC’s schedule starts off slow, but the true test of the Trojans’ potential will be on the back end when they face a stretch of Illinois, Michigan and Notre Dame before finishing the season with Oregon, Iowa and UCLA.
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