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Senior Tories are predicting they will lose the Blackpool South by-election as counting gets under way.

Sources told Sky News’ political correspondent Tamara Cohen they did “not expect to hold” the seat – which they won with a 3,690 majority in 2019.

And they said the “stars could not be more aligned against us” following scandals hitting local MPs.

Follow live: Tories braced for potentially difficult night in local elections

The by-election was called after the former Conservative MP Scott Benton was caught in a sting by the Times newspaper, suggesting he was willing to break lobbying rules for money.

Former Tory MP Scott Benton. Pic: PA
Image:
Former Tory MP Scott Benton. Pic: PA

As a result, he was suspended from the Commons for 35 days, meaning he was subject to a recall petition in his constituency.

But instead of facing removal from his seat, Mr Benton resigned from parliament, triggering a vote for a new MP.

In an added painful twist for the Tories, the candidate standing to replace him, David Jones, was revealed as the chairman of the Fylde Conservatives – the area represented by the latest scandal hit MP Mark Menzies.

Mr Menzies hit the headlines after claims he misused campaign funds – including by calling a member of the local association to say he was locked in a flat by “bad people” and needed £5,000 as a matter of “life and death”.

Mr Jones denied he knew anything about the incident – which was allegedly reported to the Conservative Party three months ago – until it was revealed in the media.

Pic: Reuters
Image:
Pic: Reuters

Labour sources told Sky News they were confident of a win in Blackpool South, despite it being a seat held by the Tories for 57 of the 78 years it has existed.

However, Labour did hold the constituency between 1997 and 2019 – before Boris Johnson and the Conservatives won over a number of the so-called Red Wall seats in the north of England.

At the by-election, Labour claimed their activists on the doorsteps reported large numbers of former Tory voters saying they would be voting Labour for the first time.

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The by-election comes at the same time as a range of local council, mayoral, and police and crime commissioner votes across both England and Wales.

Tory sources told Tamara Cohen they were expecting to lose upwards of 500 seats, which would be a big blow to the party ahead of a general election.

But Labour sources claimed the number would be far fewer – despite the party bounding ahead of the Conservatives in national polling.

Speaking to Sky News late on Thursday night, Labour Party chair Anneliese Dodds would not put a number on how many council seats would be a good result for her, saying: “I think the key thing is going to be to see whether Labour is moving forward in those areas where it’s really critical that we build support before the next general election.”

Follow our live coverage of the election results from midnight – find the full details here.

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Is Kemi Badenoch’s grooming gangs outrage just politics or does she really care?

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Is Kemi Badenoch's grooming gangs outrage just politics or does she really care?

Here’s a rule I tend to apply across the board in Westminster: If a politician is talking, politics is probably taking place.

Add into that, if the topic of debate is especially grave or serious, be more prepared to apply the rule, not less.

Which brings us to the grooming scandal.

There is no doubt Tory leader Kemi Badenoch was politicising the issue when she ripped into the government in the Commons on Monday.

In fact, she admitted as much.

Asked about it during her news conference, she said: “When I’m in the Commons, I will do politics. If every time we are pointing things out and doing our job we are accused of politicising something, it makes it a lot harder.”

So the question here is less about whether politics is at play (it almost always is and that’s not necessarily a bad thing), and more about whose interests the politics is working towards.

In other words, does Ms Badenoch care about the grooming scandal because she cares about victims or because she cares about herself?

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Issue of men’s violence ‘risks being lost’

To answer that, it’s useful to try and pinpoint exactly when the Tory leader started showing such a keen desire for a public inquiry.

Was she always harbouring it? Or did it only arrive after Elon Musk and others pushed the scandal back up the news agenda?

On this, she’s not helped by the record of the governments she served in.

Yes, the broader child abuse inquiry was announced under David Cameron, but there was no specific statutory grooming inquiry.

As late as 2022, the then Tory safeguarding minister was batting away demands for a public inquiry on the basis that locally-led probes were preferable.

That is – as it happens – the same explanation the current Labour safeguarding minister Jess Phillips offered to Oldham Council in the rejection letter that sparked outrage and set us on a path to this eventual outcome.

Read more:
Officials tried to cover up grooming scandal, says Cummings

Why many victims welcome national inquiry into grooming gangs
Grooming gangs scandal timeline

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How Andrew Norfolk exposed grooming gangs

“If we’d got this right years ago then I doubt we’d be in this place now,” wrote Baroness Casey in her audit.

If Labour can be attacked for acting too slowly, the Tories – and by extension Ms Badenoch – can be too.

In response, her aides insist she was bound by collective responsibility while she was a minister, and that the issue was outside her brief.

Ms Badenoch also points to her work with patients of the now closed Tavistock Gender Identity Clinic as evidence of her track record campaigning for change in thorny policy areas.

In this context, the presence in the grooming scandal of questions around the role of gender and ethnicity mark this as an issue that you’d expect the Tory leader to not only be interested in, but to genuinely care about too.

But as previously discussed, just because a politician is somewhat sincere in what they are saying, doesn’t mean there isn’t a dollop of politics mixed in too.

And having dug out a recording of a post-PMQs briefing with Ms Badenoch’s media adviser from January, that certainly seems to be the case here.

Asked what had changed to trigger the calls for an inquiry, the spokesperson said: “We can all go back and look at the reasons why this entered the popular discourse. This is something that is of high public salience.”

Or to put it another way, the politics changed.

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Washington’s second-biggest city, Spokane, bans crypto ATMs

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Washington’s second-biggest city, Spokane, bans crypto ATMs

Washington’s second-biggest city, Spokane, bans crypto ATMs

Spokane City Council has banned crypto ATMs to curb rising scams, giving operators 60 days to remove machines amid concerns over fraud and vulnerable residents.

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Archetyp dark web market shut down, but ecosystem adapts: TRM Labs

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Archetyp dark web market shut down, but ecosystem adapts: TRM Labs

Archetyp dark web market shut down, but ecosystem adapts: TRM Labs

The Archetyp dark web market had over 600,000 users, a total transaction volume of at least $287 million and over 17,000 listings, mainly offering drugs for sale.

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