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Senior Tories are predicting they will lose the Blackpool South by-election as counting gets under way.

Sources told Sky News’ political correspondent Tamara Cohen they did “not expect to hold” the seat – which they won with a 3,690 majority in 2019.

And they said the “stars could not be more aligned against us” following scandals hitting local MPs.

Follow live: Tories braced for potentially difficult night in local elections

The by-election was called after the former Conservative MP Scott Benton was caught in a sting by the Times newspaper, suggesting he was willing to break lobbying rules for money.

Former Tory MP Scott Benton. Pic: PA
Image:
Former Tory MP Scott Benton. Pic: PA

As a result, he was suspended from the Commons for 35 days, meaning he was subject to a recall petition in his constituency.

But instead of facing removal from his seat, Mr Benton resigned from parliament, triggering a vote for a new MP.

In an added painful twist for the Tories, the candidate standing to replace him, David Jones, was revealed as the chairman of the Fylde Conservatives – the area represented by the latest scandal hit MP Mark Menzies.

Mr Menzies hit the headlines after claims he misused campaign funds – including by calling a member of the local association to say he was locked in a flat by “bad people” and needed £5,000 as a matter of “life and death”.

Mr Jones denied he knew anything about the incident – which was allegedly reported to the Conservative Party three months ago – until it was revealed in the media.

Pic: Reuters
Image:
Pic: Reuters

Labour sources told Sky News they were confident of a win in Blackpool South, despite it being a seat held by the Tories for 57 of the 78 years it has existed.

However, Labour did hold the constituency between 1997 and 2019 – before Boris Johnson and the Conservatives won over a number of the so-called Red Wall seats in the north of England.

At the by-election, Labour claimed their activists on the doorsteps reported large numbers of former Tory voters saying they would be voting Labour for the first time.

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The by-election comes at the same time as a range of local council, mayoral, and police and crime commissioner votes across both England and Wales.

Tory sources told Tamara Cohen they were expecting to lose upwards of 500 seats, which would be a big blow to the party ahead of a general election.

But Labour sources claimed the number would be far fewer – despite the party bounding ahead of the Conservatives in national polling.

Speaking to Sky News late on Thursday night, Labour Party chair Anneliese Dodds would not put a number on how many council seats would be a good result for her, saying: “I think the key thing is going to be to see whether Labour is moving forward in those areas where it’s really critical that we build support before the next general election.”

Follow our live coverage of the election results from midnight – find the full details here.

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One year since Durov’s arrest: What’s happened and what’s ahead?

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One year since Durov’s arrest: What’s happened and what’s ahead?

One year since Durov’s arrest: What’s happened and what’s ahead?

Telegram CEO Pavel Durov was arrested one year ago and has since then been required to stay in France while under investigation.

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The future of crypto in the Asia-Middle East corridor lies in permissioned scale

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The future of crypto in the Asia-Middle East corridor lies in permissioned scale

The future of crypto in the Asia-Middle East corridor lies in permissioned scale

As Asia and the Middle East lead crypto adoption, success no longer comes from avoiding regulation, but mastering compliance to unlock true scale.

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Laws to largely abolish use of short prison sentences to be introduced within weeks

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Laws to largely abolish use of short prison sentences to be introduced within weeks

New laws to reduce the use of short prison sentences and toughen up community punishments are expected to be introduced within weeks.

Ministers are expected to introduce the new legislation to the Commons after the summer recess.

The changes will abolish most short-term prison sentences and introduce an earned release scheme, based on a model used in Texas, where prisoners who demonstrate good behaviour can be freed earlier – while those who disobey prison rules are detained for longer.

This will include some prisoners jailed for violent offences, although those convicted of the most dangerous crimes and for terrorism will be excluded.

Shabana Mahmood (left) was said to be impressed by the system in place in Texan prisons. Pic: PA
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Shabana Mahmood (left) was said to be impressed by the system in place in Texan prisons. Pic: PA

The new bill will introduce many of the changes recommended by the independent sentencing review, carried out by former Conservative justice minister David Gauke earlier this year. It represents one of the largest overhauls of sentencing in a generation and marks a cornerstone of the government’s effort to reduce the size of the prison population in England and Wales.

As well as reducing the use of short custodial sentences, the changes will also toughen up community sentences, introducing a wider range of punishments for those serving time outside of prison. This could include bans on going to stadiums to watch sports or music events, as well as restrictions on visiting pubs, and the wider use of drug testing.

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Becky Johnson speaks with Daniel, a former convict, who was released early after prisons reached capacity.

Other punishments could include driving and travel bans, as well as restriction zones – confining them to certain areas. Some of these can already be imposed for certain crimes, but the new laws will mean that these could be handed down by a judge for any offence.

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Under the legislation, which it is understood will be introduced in September, prison sentences of 12 months or less will be scrapped, except for in exceptional circumstances such as domestic abuse cases. Meanwhile, the length of suspended sentences – where an offender is not sent to prison immediately unless they commit a further crime – will be extended from two years to three.

The justice secretary is believed to have been inspired by the earned release scheme during a visit to the States, where she learned about the model being used in Texas to cut crime and bring their prison population under control.

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England is on course to run out of prison places for adult men by November, the Justice Secretary has warned.

Shabana Mahmood said that criminals who break the rules “must be punished” and that those serving their sentences in the community “must have their freedom restricted there, too”.

She added: “Rightly, the public expect the government to do everything in its power to keep Britain safe, and that’s what we’re doing.”

A spokesperson for the Ministry of Justice added: “This government inherited a prison system days away from collapse.

“That is why we are building 14,000 more prison places, with 2,500 already delivered, but we know we can’t build our way out of this crisis.

“Without further action, we will run out of prison places in months, courts would halt trials and the police [would] cancel arrests. That is why we are overhauling sentencing to make sure we always have the prison places needed to keep the country safe.”

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