Apple remains Buffett’s biggest public stock holding, but his thesis about its moat faces questions
Tim Cook and Warren Buffett
Getty Images (L) | CNBC (R)
Berkshire Hathaway‘s Warren Buffett was still using a flip phone as late as 2020, four years after his investment behemoth started amassing a huge stake in the company that makes iPhones.
“I don’t understand the phone at all, but I do understand consumer behavior,” Buffett said last year at Berkshire’s annual shareholder meeting in Omaha, Nebraska.
He’s emerged in recent years as one of Apple’s top evangelists.
At the end of 2023, Berkshire owned about 6% of Apple, a stake worth $174 billion at the time, or about 40% of Berkshire’s total value. That’s about four times bigger than Berkshire’s second-biggest public stock holding, Bank of America, and makes Berkshire the No. 2 Apple shareholder, behind only Vanguard.
As Berkshire investors and fanboys of the 93-year-old Buffett flood Omaha this weekend for the 2024 annual meeting, Apple is likely to be a hot topic of discussion. The tech giant on Thursday reported a 10% year-over-year decline in iPhone sales, leading to a 4% drop in total revenue. But the stock had its best day since late 2022 on Friday due largely to a $110 billion stock buyback plan and increased margins that result from a growing services business.
The bet on Apple and CEO Tim Cook, has paid off handsomely for Buffett, who said in 2022 that the cost of Berkshire’s Apple stake was only $31 billion. His firm is up almost 620% on its investment since the start of 2016.
Despite being a self-described luddite, Buffett has long had a coherent non-techie thesis for loving Apple. He’s seen how devoted Apple users are to their devices, and has viewed the iPhone as an extraordinary product that could keep its customers spending inside the Apple ecosystem. He calls it a moat, one of his favorite words for describing his preferred businesses.
“Apple has a position with consumers that they’re paying $1,500 or whatever it may be for a phone, and these same people pay $35,000 for a second car,” Buffett said at last year’s meeting. “And if they had to give up their second car or give up their iPhone, they’d give up their second car!”
Data is in his favor. According to a study from Consumer Intelligence Research Partners, Apple has 94% customer loyalty, meaning that nine out of 10 current U.S. iPhone owners choose another iPhone when buying a new device.
Buffett has also hailed Apple’s ability to return billions of dollars to shareholders annually through share buybacks and dividends, a capital allocation strategy for which Buffett may have himself to thank. When asked in a 2016 interview with The Washington Post who he turns to for advice at pivotal moments, Cook offered up a story about his relationship with Buffett.
“When I was going through [the question of] what should we do on returning cash to shareholders, I thought who could really give us great advice here? Who wouldn’t have a bias?” Cook said. “So I called up Warren Buffett. I thought he’s the natural person.”
Apple has shown its appreciation for the Oracle of Omaha in other ways.
In 2019, the company published an original iPhone game called “Warren Buffett’s Paper Wizard” in which a paperboy bikes from Omaha to Apple’s hometown of Cupertino, California.
But with Apple’s business having declined in size in five of the past six quarters and with the company expecting just low-single digit growth in the current quarter, Buffett may face questions this weekend about whether he still sees the same power in the moat, particularly with regulatory pressures building around tech’s megacap companies.
Buffett trimmed his stake in Apple late year, though only by about 1%. Even after Friday’s rally, the stock is down 3.8% in 2024, while the S&P 500 is up 7.5%.
‘Very, very, very locked in’
Berkshire’s initial foray into Apple in 2016 was not Buffett’s idea. Rather, the investment was led by Ted Weschler, one of Buffett’s top deputies, and was seen as a passing of the torch to the next generation of Berskhire investment mangers.
But the following year, Berkshire started purchasing even more Apple, and Buffett began talking it up. He said he liked the stock and the company’s “sticky” product, although he didn’t use it.
In 2018, he said Apple users are “very, very, very locked in, at least psychologically and mentally” to the product and the ecosystem.
“Apple has an extraordinary consumer franchise,” he said.
At last year’s annual meeting, when asked how Berkshire can defend having Apple make up so much of its public portfolio, Buffett said, “It just happens to be a better business than any we own.” He also hailed Cook, calling him one of the “best managers in the world.”
A number Apple likes to use to tout the health of its business, despite the declining revenue, is 2.2 billion. That’s how many devices the company says are currently in use and points to the massive customer base available as Apple rolls out new subscription services.
“Once customers get into the ecosystem, they don’t leave. So it’s not a a speculative tech play,” said Dan Eye, chief investment officer at Fort Pitt Capital Group, which owns Apple shares. “It’s kind of more like an annuity and I think that’s what Warren Buffett really sees as well.”
In addition to the drop in revenue, Apple faces new challenges from regulations and weak overseas markets, as well as from Microsoft and Google’s advancements in artificial intelligence. For regulators, the concern surrounds the very moat that Buffett finds so attractive, and whether its give the company monopolistic control in the smartphone market.
The U.S. government in March alleged that Apple designs its business to keep customers locked in. The Justice Department’s lawsuit claimed that products like Apple Card, the Apple Arcade game subscription, iMessage, and Apple Watch work best or only with an iPhone, creating illegal barriers to competition and making it harder for consumers to switch when it’s time for an upgrade.
However, the litigation is expected to take years, pushing any potential penalties to Apple and its products well into the future. In the meantime, there’s no sign that the iPhone is becoming less important as new devices like virtual reality goggles have found only niche audiences, while consumer AI products have failed to take off.
Buffett hasn’t voiced his view publicly on Apple’s regulatory hurdles, and this will be the first opportunity for investors to ask him about the issue since the DOJ’s lawsuit. But Buffett knows a little something about regulation — two markets where he’s most active are railroads and insurance.
In a note to clients earlier this month, Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi didn’t go deep on regulatory concerns, but mentioned that he doesn’t believe the DOJ suit will “seriously threaten” the strength of Apple’s ecosystem. He also said that following Buffett’s lead on getting in and out of Apple is a solid strategy for making money.
“Despite his reputation as a long term buy and hold investor, Warren Buffett has been remarkably disciplined at adding to his Apple position when it is relatively cheap and trimming when it is relatively expensive,” Sacconaghi wrote. He encouraged investors to “be like Buffett.”
More money back
Odds are that Buffett was thrilled with Apple’s announcement this week regarding its expanded repurchase program. It’s a practice he’s long adored.
“When I buy Apple, I know that Apple is going to repurchase a lot of shares,” he said in 2018.
And he likes to note how buybacks result in getting a bigger stake in the company without buying more shares.
“The math of repurchases grinds away slowly, but can be powerful over time,” Buffett said in 2021.
Apple also increased its dividend by 4%, and signaled that it would continue to lift it annually.
Buffett was effusive about Apple’s capital return strategy at the company’s annual meeting last year, pointing out that it helped Berkshire own a bigger piece of the pie. Unlike insurance company Geico and homebuilder Clayton Homes, which his firm owns in their entirety, Berkshire can continue to increase its stake in Apple, a fact he reminded investors of at the meeting.
“The good thing about Apple is that we can go up,” Buffett said.
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Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg makes a keynote speech at the Meta Connect annual event, at the company’s headquarters in Menlo Park, California, U.S. September 25, 2024.
Manuel Orbegozo | Reuters
Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg plans to continue his company’s artificial intelligence spending blitz well into the next year as rival tech giants do the same.
Zuckerberg told analysts Wednesday during a second-quarter earnings call that AI’s rapid pace of progress has informed much of Meta’s recent business decisions, including the company’s $14.3 billion June investment into the data-annotating startup Scale AI as part of a revamped AI strategy involving a wave of high-profile hires.
AI’s swift advancement warrants that Meta have “the absolute best and most elite talent-dense team” that can access the resources they need from a “leading compute fleet,” Zuckerberg said about the AI Superintelligence team he assembled for his company this summer. Whatever these top-tier AI researchers build can then be implemented throughout Facebook, Instagram and the rest of the company’s family of apps, he said.
“When we take a technology, we’re good at driving that through all of our apps and our ad systems,” Zuckerberg said. “There’s no other company that is as good as us at kind of taking something and getting it in front of billions of people.”
Those AI endeavors, however, come at a cost.
Meta on Wednesday said it expects its total expenses for 2025 to come in the range of $114 billion and $118 billion, raising the low end of its previous outlook of between $113 billion and $118 billion. And while Meta is still planning out next year, the company said its AI initiatives will “result in a 2026 year-over-year expense growth rate that is above the 2025 expense growth.”
Other tech giants are also spending heavy on AI projects and talent.
Alphabet said last week during its earnings report that it is raising its 2025 capital expenditures forecast to $85 billion, which is $10 billion higher from its prior forecast. Microsoft said Wednesday that its fiscal first-quarter capital expenditures will be $30 billion, ahead of analyst expectations of $24.23 billion.
For now, investors are OK with Meta’s big AI investments, with the company’s shares up nearly 12% in after-hour trading on Wednesday. It helps that Meta reported strong second-quarter earnings that beat on the top and bottom while providing third-quarter sales guidance that topped Wall Street expectations.
It also helps that Zuckerberg said AI drove “greater efficiency and gains across our ad system,” likely reassuring worried investors that Meta’s big AI spending is leading to some immediate results.
And while the company’s Reality Labs unit continues bleeding money, posting an operating loss of $4.53 billion in the second quarter, the surprise hit of the Ray-Ban Meta smart glasses seems to have quelled investor discontent for the time being.
“I continue to think that glasses are basically going to be the ideal form factor for AI, because you can let an AI see what you see throughout the day, hear what you hear, talk to you,” Zuckerberg said. “Once you get a display in there, whether it’s the kind of wide holographic field of view, like we showed with Orion, or just a smaller display that might be good for displaying some information, that’s going to unlock a lot of value, where you can just interact with an AI system throughout the day.”
WATCH: I like Meta as a stock, don’t love it, prefer Google.
Elon Musk has expanded a number of his companies within Texas, including Tesla, SpaceX, the Boring Co. and Neuralink. Tesla broke ground on a lithium refinery in Texas earlier this year with Governor Greg Abbott in attendance.
Christophe Gateau | Picture Alliance | Getty Images
Elon Musk’s tunneling venture, The Boring Company, announced plans earlier this week to build a 10-mile underground loop in Nashville, in coordination with Tennessee Republican Governor Bill Lee, who put out a press release praising the project.
Democratic lawmakers in Nashville are demanding answers on the plans, while the state’s Republican leaders have jumped at the chance to partner with Musk. A state commission is holding an emergency meeting and public hearing Thursday morning to discuss a “no cost/mutual benefit” lease arrangement that’s been proposed to help the company get the tunnels started.
“We are aware of the state’s conversations with the Boring Company, and we have a number of operational questions to understand the potential impacts on Metro and Nashvillians,” Freddie O’Connell, Nashville’s mayor, said in an e-mailed statement.
Based in Pflugerville, Texas, The Boring Co. is poised to take over a chunk of public property about the size of a football field in downtown Nashville. The commission that’s meeting on Thursday includes Tennessee’s governor, speaker of the house, speaker of the senate and secretary of state. Members of the public were invited to give testimony but with less than a week’s notice.
On Monday, The Boring Co. and state officials divulged that Musk’s venture would dig its tunnels under state-owned roadways in order to “connect downtown and the Convention Center to Nashville International Airport with a transit time of approximately 8 minutes.”
It’s called the Music City Loop, and the project marks Musk’s latest effort to bolster his budding business empire in Tennessee. His artificial intelligence startup xAI, the parent of social media platform X, is building data centers and a power plant in Memphis, on the western side of the state.
The governor’s office said on Monday that the Nashville project would come “at zero cost to taxpayers” and would be “entirely privately funded,” though no details were provided about whether or what type of cost-benefit analysis, environment, safety or traffic assessment had been completed by the state before agreeing to the deal.
Musk became a major force in Republican politics last year, when he spent almost $300 million to help reelect President Donald Trump before working for the Trump administration in the first few months of this year. Musk brought The Boring Co. CEO Steve Davis with him to lead Trump’s DOGE initiative, slashing federal agencies, regulations and personnel.
Justin Jones, a Democratic state representative in Nashville, told CNBC on Wednesday that his district had not been able to participate in any public comment period, and hadn’t seen any environmental impact report or health assessment related to the Music City Loop or its construction.
‘Not allowed to be here’
On Wednesday evening, The Boring Co. held a recruiting event, with Davis in attendance, at the parking lot where the company expects the state to grant it a no-cost lease. Jones went to the event hoping to discuss the jobs that Musk’s company is looking to create in his district, the lawmaker told CNBC.
“The CEO is here and the other members of their team, but they sent someone out to tell me that I’m not allowed to be here,” Jones said in a text message, sharing a video of his interaction with The Boring Co. employees at the event.
On Monday, Jones arrived to a separate company event at the Nashville airport only to have authorities claim he lacked proper credentials to attend.
Jones told CNBC that state officials explained to him that only state-level authorizations would be required for The Boring Co. project to begin because the tunnels would go under state roads, and would not require the use of taxpayer funds.
“We’re not even being informed where or what exactly these tunnels are going to run through,” Jones said. “Tomorrow they’re voting to give away state land for no cost. But giving away land obviously has a cost.”
The governor’s office didn’t respond to a request for comment regarding Jones’ concerns. Representatives for The Boring Co. weren’t immediately available to comment.
The Boring Co. has previously built tunnels in Las Vegas, including an initial two miles to carry visitors to different exhibit halls around the Las Vegas Convention Center. Tesla drivers travel through the tunnels to pick up and drop off passengers, who book their rides using an app.
The initial loop cost Nevada taxpayers about $50 million and has been criticized for a lack of pedestrian entrances, walkways and platforms, and its limitations relative to a subway system. The Boring Co. was previously fined by the Nevada Occupational Safety and Health Administration for repeated violations and worker injuries in Las Vegas.
The Musk-owned company also abandoned plans to build tunnels in other locations, including Chicago.
One particular concern in Nashville is that the city is prone to flooding with an average annual rainfall of around 50 inches, according to the National Weather Service, which compares to around 4 inches in Las Vegas. The city’s Metro Water Services previously arranged, with federal support, to purchase homes from residents in vulnerable areas at reduced prices, and convert the land there to green spaces.
The Boring Co. has no experience building in areas with that kind of rainfall and flooding concern.
The public hearing to discuss whether the state will give the parking lots to The Boring Co. in a no-cost, mutual benefit lease agreement starts at 8 a.m. local time on Thursday at Cordell Hull State Office Building, according to a copy of the agenda on the state government’s website.
In Memphis, xAI has faced a community backlash over its use of natural gas-burning turbines which power its data center and supercomputer there. The facility, housed in a former home appliance factory, is responsible for training xAI’s controversial chatbot Grok.
The NAACP and other environmental and public health advocates are suing xAI, saying the company exacerbated air pollution in the area, harmed majority-Black communities who live near their facilities, and violated the Clean Air Act. An xAI spokesperson said at the time the groups announced their intent to sue that the company takes “our commitment to the community and environment seriously.”
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